人类有足够的智慧来生存吗？

凭借敏捷的机智和敏锐的洞察力，作家珍妮特·温特森描绘了人类和机器智能融合的未来愿景——形成了她所谓的“替代智能”——并从哲学角度审视了我们的物种，问道：我们足够聪明吗？为了生存，我们有多聪明？（随后是与 TED 策展负责人 Helen Walters 的问答）

Here's what gives me hope for humanity. I believe that we can change our human nature for the better. This chance is unique.It's where we stand in history right now. No other generation has stood here before us.

这就是让我对人类充满希望的东西。 我相信我们可以更好地改变我们的人性。 这个机会是独一无二的。 这就是我们现在在历史上所处的位置。 没有其他一代人站在我们面前。

Homo sapiens has been around for about 300,000 years. Other humanoid life forms have come and gone. We find their traces.We search for their stories. But we are the success story. We've survived natural disasters, famines, floods, earthquakes, plagues, woolly mammoths, mess-ups of our own making. We're smart, no question. The question is: Are we smart enough to survive how smart we are? It's not looking so good just now, is it?

智人已经存在了大约 30 万年。 其他类人生命形式来来去去。 我们找到了他们的踪迹。 我们寻找他们的故事。 但我们是成功的故事。我们从自然灾害、饥荒、洪水、地震、瘟疫、 猛犸象和我们自己制造的混乱中幸存下来。 我们很聪明，毫无疑问。 问题是：我们是否足够聪明，能够在我们有多聪明的情况下生存下来？ 现在看起来不太好，是吗？

We stand facing the possibility of global conflict. If that happens,it will be our Third World War in not much more than 100 years. If Putin's violence stops today, the problem doesn't go away. As across the globe dictatorism threatens democracy. I wonder whether as a species we can survive any of this, even if those threats disappear. Those living inside the snow globe of their magical thinking will not be insulated against the facts of climate breakdown. And yet, still, we go on heating up the planet. Still we go on polluting the earth. Still we despoil our precious natural resources.

我们正面临着全球冲突的可能性。 如果发生这种情况，那将是我们100 年后的第三次世界大战。 如果普京的暴力今天停止，问题就不会消失。在全球范围内，独裁主义威胁着民主。我想知道作为一个物种，即使这些威胁消失了，我们是否还能幸免于难。那些生活在他们神奇思维的雪球内的人不会与气候崩溃的事实绝缘。然而，我们仍在继续加热地球。我们仍然继续污染地球。我们仍然掠夺我们宝贵的自然资源。

250 years ago, we kick-started the Industrial Revolution. The machine age. It's when we first hear the buzzwords of the modern moment. Disruption, acceleration. That's Karl Marx, actually. Acceleration of production, the factory system, acceleration of transport, the coming of the railways. No need for ships to wait for the wind. Coal-fired, steam-powered.Acceleration of information. The global village. And it's when we start digging fossil fuels out of the ground in planet-changing quantities, when we start pushing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

250 年前，我们启动了工业革命。 机器时代。 这是我们第一次听到现代流行语的时候。 中断，加速。 那是卡尔马克思，实际上。生产加速， 工厂系统，运输加速， 铁路的到来。 船只无需等待风。 燃煤，蒸汽动力。 信息化加速。 地球村。 当我们开始 以改变地球的数量从地下挖掘化石燃料时， 当我们开始将二氧化碳排放到大气中时。

In a salami slice of space-time, human beings have changed the way that we live on the planet forever. We've moved out of the agricultural economies of our evolutionary inheritance into the industrial economies and beyond of where we are now. There's no one else for us to turn to. There's no one else for us to blame.There is no us and them. There's only us. So will we continue to be the success story of the known universe, or are we writing our own obituary? The suicide species?

在时空中的意大利香肠片中， 人类永远改变了我们在这个星球上的生活方式。 我们已经从 我们进化继承的农业经济 转移到工业经济，并超越了我们现在所处的位置。 我们没有其他人可以求助。 没有其他人可以责怪我们。 没有我们和他们。 只有我们。 那么我们将继续成为已知宇宙的成功故事， 还是我们正在撰写自己的讣告？自杀物种？

Now I was raised in an evangelical household. We lived in end time. We were waiting for things to get so bad that Jesus would come back and save us. The apocalypse. It's what the prepper communities are, well, prepping for. And it's why super rich white guys are buying up tracts of land, hoping that they can live insidea kind of wi-fi-enabled Noah's Ark.

现在我在一个福音派家庭长大。 我们生活在末世。 我们一直在等待事情变得如此糟糕 ，以至于耶稣会回来拯救我们。 天启。 这就是准备者社区正在为之做的准备。 这就是为什么超级富有的白人正在购买大片土地， 希望他们能住在 一种支持无线网络的诺亚方舟里。

Well, we can have the end time if we want it. We know those stories from our religions, our sci-fi, our movies. We are uniquely placed to bring on the apocalypse. And we're uniquely placed to save ourselves, too. If we could accept that as a species, Homo sapiens needs to evolve further. And that's what gives me hope,because we have the means to evolve further. And that's AI.

好吧，如果我们愿意，我们可以拥有结束时间。 我们从我们的宗教、科幻小说和电影中了解这些故事。 我们处于独特的位置，可以带来启示录。 我们也处于独特的位置来拯救自己。 如果我们能够接受这一点，那么 智人需要进一步进化。 这就是给我希望的原因，因为我们有办法进一步发展。 这就是人工智能。

Now look, I don't mean the geeks will inherit the earth. I'm sorry, geeks. You won't.

现在看，我并不是说极客会继承地球。 对不起，极客们。你不会的。

I don’t really want to talk about narrow- goal artificial intelligence at all. That term of John McCarthy’s, “artificial intelligence,” is it any use to us now? I'd rather call it alternative intelligence. And I think humankind is in need of some alternative intelligence.

我根本不想谈论窄目标人工智能。 约翰麦卡锡的那个词，“人工智能”， 现在对我们有用吗？ 我宁愿称它为替代智能。 我认为人类需要一些替代智能。

In 1965, Jack Good talked about AI as our last invention. He meant superintelligence, the kind of thing that worries Bill Gates and Elon Musk. You know, the "Terminator" scenario. The final us and them. But I think that's all to do with our doomster mindset.We don't have to vote for the apocalypse.

1965 年，Jack Good 谈到人工智能是我们的最后一项发明。 他指的是超级智能， 那种让比尔·盖茨和埃隆·马斯克担心的东西。 你知道，“终结者”场景。 最后的我们和他们。 但我认为这与我们的末日思维有关。 我们不必为世界末日投票。

Jack Good worked at Bletchley Park with Alan Turing during World War II, building the early computing machinery that would crack the Nazi Enigma code. Now after the war, Turing, wrestling with the problems of a stored, programmed computer had a bigger dream on his mind. And in 1950, Alan Turing published a paper called “Computing Machinery and Intelligence.” And in there, there's a chapter that's titled "Lady Lovelace's Objection"where Turing time-travels back 100 years to have a conversation with that long-dead genius, Ada Lovelace, the first person to write mathematical programs for the computer not yet built by her friend Charles Babbage. Now Ada wrote that as well as doing awesome stuff with numbers, the computer would, if correctly programmed, be able to write novels and compose music. That is a pretty big insight in 1843.

二战期间，杰克·古德与艾伦·图灵一起在布莱切利公园工作， 建造了能够破解纳粹谜团密码的早期计算机。 现在，战后，图灵正在努力解决 存储的、编程的计算机的问题， 他心中有了一个更大的梦想。 而在 1950 年，艾伦·图灵发表了一篇 名为《计算机器与智能》的论文。 在那里，有一章标题为“洛夫莱斯夫人的反对” ，图灵穿越到 100 年前 ，与这位早已去世的天才艾达· 洛夫莱斯（Ada Lovelace）进行了对话，他是第一个为计算机编写数学程序的人 。她的朋友查尔斯·巴贝奇。 现在艾达写道，除了用数字做一些很棒的事情外 ，如果编程正确，计算机将 能够写小说和作曲。 这是 1843 年的一个相当大的见解。

"But," said Ada, "The computer should never have any pretensions to originate anything." She meant, think creatively.Well, Ada's father was Lord Byron, England's most famous poet,and England is the land of Shakespeare. More poets. And Ada had seen Charles Babbage's kit all over the floor, and she wasn’t having some steampunk, coal-fired nuts, bolts, bezels, levers,gears, cogs and chains, crank-handled machine writing poetry.

“但是，”艾达说，“计算机永远不应该有任何自命不凡 的想法。” 她的意思是，创造性地思考。 嗯，艾达的父亲是英国最著名的诗人拜伦勋爵， 而英国是莎士比亚的故乡。 更多的诗人。 艾达在地板上看到查尔斯巴贝奇的工具包， 她没有一些蒸汽朋克、燃煤螺母、螺栓、挡板、杠杆、 齿轮、齿轮和链条，曲柄手柄机器写诗。

"Well," said Alan Turing, "Was Lady Lovelace, correct? Could a computer ever be said to originate anything? And what would be the difference between computing intelligence and human intelligence?"

“嗯，”艾伦·图灵说，“洛夫莱斯夫人是不是，对吗？ 可以说一台计算机起源于任何东西吗？计算智能 和人类智能之间有什么区别？”

Well, I'll tell you one difference, and it's optimistic. Computing power uses binary, but computing intelligence is nonbinary. It's humans who are obsessed with false binaries. Male, female. Masculine, feminine. Black, white. Human, non-human. Us, them.AI has no skin color. AI has no race, no gender, no faith in a sky God. AI is not interested in men being superior to women, in white folks being smarter than people of color. Straight, gay, gay, trans are not separating categories for AI. AI does not distinguish between success and failure by gold bars, yachts and Ferraris. AI is not motivated by fame and fortune. If we develop alternative intelligence, it will be Buddhist in its non-needs.

好吧，我会告诉你一个区别，它是乐观的。 计算能力使用二进制，但计算智能是非二进制的。 痴迷于虚假二进制文件的是人类。 男，女。男性化，女性化。 黑，白。人类，非人类。 我们，他们。 AI没有肤色。 AI没有种族，没有性别，对天空之神没有信仰。 人工智能对男性优于女性、 白人比有色人种聪明不感兴趣。 异性恋、同性恋、同性恋、跨性别不是人工智能的分类。 人工智能不通过金条、游艇和法拉利来区分成功与失败。 人工智能不受名利驱动。 如果我们开发替代智能，它将是佛教徒的不需要。

Now I am aware that the algorithms ubiquitous in everyday lifeare racist, sexist, gendered, trivializing, stoke division, amplify bias. But what is this teaching us about ourselves? AI is a tool.We are the ones who are using the tool. Hatred and contempt, money and power are human agendas, not AI agendas. We've been forced to recognize the paucity, the inadequacy of our data sets. And humans are trained on data sets too. We've had to recognized the unacknowledged ideologies that we live by every day. Rationality, neutrality, logic, objective decision-making. What can we say about any of that when we see what we are reflected back to us in the small screen? And it's not a pretty sight. AI is not yet self-aware. But we are becoming more self-aware as we work with AI and we realize that Homo sapiens is no longer fit for purpose. We need a reboot. So what are we going to choose?Apocalypse or an alternative?

现在我意识到日常生活中无处不在的算法 是种族主义、性别歧视、性别歧视、琐碎化、 助长分裂、放大偏见。 但这教会了我们关于我们自己的什么？ 人工智能是一种工具。 我们是使用该工具的人。仇恨和蔑视、金钱和权力 是人类的议程，而不是人工智能的议程。我们被迫承认 我们的数据集的稀缺性和不足性。 人类也接受过数据集的训练。 我们必须认识到 我们每天生活的未被承认的意识形态。理性、中立、逻辑、客观决策。 当我们看到我们反映给我们的东西时，我们能说什么 在小屏幕上？ 这不是一个漂亮的景象。 人工智能还没有自我意识。 但随着我们与人工智能合作，我们变得更加自我意识， 我们意识到智人不再适合目标。 我们需要重新启动。 那么我们要选择什么呢？ 启示录还是替代方案？

I believe that humans have a strong future as a hybrid species as we start to merge with the biotechnology we're creating,whether that's nanobots in the bloodstream, monitoring our vital systems, whether it's genetic editing, whether it's 3D printing of bespoke body parts, whether it’s neural implants that will connect us directly to the web and to one another, insourcing information, enhancing our cognitive capacities. And if we manage to upload consciousness, I think that the shift from the transhuman to the posthuman world will seem natural, an evolutionary necessity.

我相信， 随着我们开始与我们正在创造的生物技术融合，人类作为杂交物种拥有强大的未来， 无论是血液中的纳米机器人， 监测我们的重要系统， 无论是基因编辑， 还是定制身体部位的 3D 打印，无论是神经植入物将我们直接连接到网络 并相互连接， 内包信息，增强我们的认知能力。 如果我们设法上传意识， 我认为从超人类到后人类世界的转变 似乎很自然，是进化的必然。

Why do I say that? I say that because for millennia, all human beings have been obsessed with the big question, the absurdity of death. We asked, "Do we have souls?" We watched the spirit wait to leave the body. We created the world's first disruptive startup, the afterlife.

我为什么这么说？ 我这么说是因为几千年来， 所有人都沉迷于一个大问题， 即死亡的荒谬性。 我们问：“我们有灵魂吗？” 我们看着灵魂等待离开身体。 我们创建了世界上第一个颠覆性的创业公司，来世。

Now a multinational company, with a vast VR real estate portfolio. A mansion in the sky, sir? Our earliest extant written narrative, The Epic of Gilgamesh, is a journey to discover if there is life after death. And what is life after death? It is the extension of the self beyond biological limits.

现在是一家跨国公司， 拥有庞大的 VR 房地产投资组合。 天上的豪宅， 先生？ 我们现存的最早的书面叙事，吉尔伽美什史诗， 是一段探索死后是否有生命的旅程。 死后的生命是什么？ 它是超越生物极限的自我的延伸。

Now I’m a writer, and I wonder, have we been telling the story backwards? Did we know we would always get here, capable of creating the kind of superintelligence that we said created us?We're told were made in God's image. God is immortal. God is not a biological entity.

现在我是一名作家，我想知道，我们是否一直在倒叙故事？ 我们是否知道我们将永远到达这里，能够创造 我们所说的创造我们的那种超级智能？ 我们被告知是按照上帝的形象造的。上帝是不朽的。上帝不是生物实体。

Since the 17th century, the Enlightenment, science and religion have parted company. And science said, all that God thinking, the afterlife stuff, it's folly, It's ignorance, it's superstition.Suppose it was intuition. Suppose it was the only way we could talk about what we knew, a fundamental, deep truth that this is not the last word. This is not the end of the story. That we are not time-bound creatures caught in our bodies. That there is further to go. I'm fascinated that computing, science and religion,like parallel lines that do meet in space, are now asking the same question: Is consciousness obliged to materiality?

17世纪以来，启蒙运动、 科学与宗教分道扬镳。 科学说，所有上帝的想法，来世的东西， 都是愚蠢的，是无知的，是迷信的。 假设它是直觉。 假设这是我们可以谈论我们所知道的事情的唯一方式，这是 一个基本的、深刻的事实 ，这不是硬道理。 这不是故事的结局。 我们不是被困在我们身体里的有时间限制的生物。 还有更远的路要走。 我很着迷，计算、科学和宗教， 就像在太空中相遇的平行线一样， 现在都在问同一个问题： 意识是否必须服从于物质性？

Now ... I accept that machine intelligence will challenge human intelligence. But the mythos of the world is built around a group of stories that showcase an encounter between a human and a nonhuman entity. Think of Jacob wrestling the angel. Think of Prometheus bringing fire down from the gods. In these encounters, both parties are changed, not always for the better.But it generally works out. We've been thinking about this stuff forever. It's time that we created it. And we could have some fun stuff too. Who wants their own AI angel? Me.

现在...... 我接受机器智能 将挑战人类智能。 但是世界的神话是围绕一组故事建立的，这些故事 展示了人类和非人类实体之间的相遇。想想雅各与天使摔跤。 想想普罗米修斯从众神身上带来的火。 在这些遭遇中，双方都发生了变化， 并不总是变得更好。 但它通常会奏效。 我们一直在思考这个问题。 是我们创造它的时候了。 我们也可以有一些有趣的东西。 谁想要自己的人工智能天使？ 我。

There's a message in a bottle about this 200 years ago. When Ada Lovelace was busy getting born, her father, Lord Byron, was on holiday on Lake Geneva with his friend, the poet Percy Shelley, and Shelley's wife, Mary Shelley. On a wet weekend with no internet Byron said --

200 年前，瓶子里有一条信息。 当艾达·洛夫莱斯忙于出生时， 她的父亲拜伦勋爵正 与他的朋友诗人珀西·雪莱 和雪莱的妻子玛丽·雪莱在日内瓦湖度假。 在一个没有互联网的潮湿周末 拜伦说——

"Let's write horror stories." You know what happened. Out of that came the world's most famous monster, Frankenstein. This is 1816, the start of the Industrial Revolution. Mary Shelley is just 19 years old. In that novel, there is an alternative intelligence made out of the body parts from the graveyard and electricity. An astonishing vision because electricity was not in any practical use at all and was hardly understood as a force. You know what happens. The monster is not named. Not educated. Is outcast by his panicky creator, Victor Frankenstein. And the whole thing ends in a chase across the Arctic ice towards a Götterdämmerung of death and destruction. The death wish that human beings are so drawn to, perhaps because it's easier to give up than to carry on.

“让我们写恐怖故事吧。” 你知道发生了什么。 世界上最著名的怪物弗兰肯斯坦由此诞生。 这是 1816 年，工业革命的开始。 玛丽雪莱只有 19 岁。 在那本小说中，有一种 由墓地中的身体部位和电力制成的替代智能。 一个令人惊讶的愿景 ，因为电根本没有任何实际用途， 也很难被理解为一种力量。 你知道会发生什么。怪物没有名字。没受过教育。 被他惊慌失措的创造者维克多·弗兰肯斯坦抛弃。整个事情以一场穿越北极冰层的追逐而告终， 走向死亡和毁灭的 Götterdämmerung。 人类如此被吸引的死亡愿望， 也许是因为放弃比继续更容易。

Well, we're the first generation who can read Mary Shelley's novel in the right way, as a flare flung across time, because we too could create an alternative intelligence, not out of the body parts from the graveyard using electricity, but out of zeros and ones of code. And how is this going to end? Utopia or dystopia?It's up to us. Endings are not set in stone. We change the story because we are the story.

嗯，我们是 能够以正确方式阅读玛丽雪莱小说的第一代人， 就像穿越时间的耀斑一样， 因为我们也可以创造另一种智能， 不是用电来自墓地的身体部位， 而是来自代码的零和一。 这将如何结束？乌托邦还是反乌托邦？ 这取决于我们。 结局不是一成不变的。 我们改变故事，因为我们就是故事。

Now, Marvin Minsky called alternative intelligence our "mind children." Could we as proud parents accept that the new generation that we will create will be smarter than we are? And could we accept that the new generation we create need not be on a substrate made of meat?

现在，马文·明斯基将另类智能称为 我们的“心灵孩子”。 作为自豪的父母，我们能否接受 我们将创造的新一代 将比我们更聪明？ 我们可以接受我们创造的新一代 不需要在肉制成的基质上吗？

Helen Walters: Jeanette, stay right there. I have some questions.

海伦沃尔特斯：珍妮特，待在那儿。 我有一些问题。

Jeanette Winterson: I know you want your lunch. Me too.

珍妮特·温特森：我知道你想吃午饭。我也是。

HW: No. Everybody, stop. OK. That was amazing. Thank you.What would you say our odds were of survival?

HW：不。每个人，停下来。 好的。那太精彩了。谢谢你。 你会说我们的生存几率是多少？

I'm an optimist. I’m a glass-half-full girl. So I know that we’re running out of time, time is the most precious resource we have,and there isn't much of it. If we get this right soon, it can really work. If we get it wrong, will be fighting each other with sticks and stones for scraps of food and water on an overheated planetin the ruins of dictator-world.

我是一个乐观主义者。 我是一个半杯水的女孩。 所以我知道我们的时间不多了， 时间是我们拥有的最宝贵的资源， 而且时间不多。如果我们能尽快做到这一点，它真的可以奏效。 如果我们弄错了，将在独裁者世界的废墟中过热的星球上用棍棒和石头互相争夺 食物和水的碎片。

OK. But we could get it right. That’s why I feel we’ve arrived at this moment before, and it might disappear back into space-time. Then we'll have to wait billions of years to get here again, which is so dull.

好的。但我们可以做对。 这就是为什么我觉得我们之前已经到达了这个时刻， 它可能会消失在时空中。 然后我们将不得不等待数十亿年才能再次到达这里，这太沉闷了。

So let's not fuck it up.

所以我们不要搞砸了。

HW: I've got another question. I just wanted to have a moment of eye to eye. Don't fuck it up. Don't fuck it up. OK.

HW：我还有一个问题。 我只是想有一个眼神交流的时刻。 别搞砸了。别搞砸了。好的。

JW: That’s the message. The whole TED Talk is: “Don’t fuck it up.”

JW：这就是信息。整个 TED 演讲就是：“别搞砸了。”

HW: But wait, I have another question.

HW：但是等等，我还有一个问题。

JW: I could have saved 12 minutes, 55 seconds.

JW：我本可以节省 12 分 55 秒。

HW: Yeah, well, I'll just be the title that we put online.

HW：是的，好吧，我只是我们放在网上的标题。

Jeanette Winterson: “Don’t fuck it up.”

珍妮特温特森：“别搞砸了。”

OK. I want to talk about love. So in your memoir, which everybody should read, it is called “Why Be Happy When You Can Be Normal?” The very end of that book is about -- it’s a good title -- t’s about love. And you write, "Love, the difficult word.Where everything starts, where we always return. Love. Love's lack. The possibility of love." Now I don't want to bastardize Ada Lovelace. She was all about originating. But what about love?What about alternative intelligence and love?

好的。我想谈谈爱情。 所以在你的回忆录中，每个人都应该阅读，它叫做“当你可以正常时，为什么要快乐？” 那本书的结尾是关于—— 这是一个很好的标题——是关于爱的。 然后你写，“爱，这个词很难。 一切开始的地方，我们总是返回的地方。 爱。爱的缺失。爱的可能性。” 现在我不想把 Ada Lovelace 混为一谈。 她是所有关于起源。 但是爱情呢？ 另类的智慧和爱呢？

JW: We'll teach it.

JW：我们会教它的。

HW: We’ll teach it? JW: Yeah. And listen, any of you who ever fell in love with your teddy bear, which is all of you, know what it's like to have an intense relationship with a nonbiological lifeform.

HW：我们会教它吗？ JW：是的。听着，你们中的任何一个曾经爱上你的泰迪熊的人，也就是你们所有人，都知道 与非生物生命形式建立密切关系是什么感觉。

HW: Jeanette Winterson, I love you.

HW：珍妮特温特森，我爱你。

JW: Thank you. HW: Thank you so much. Thank you.

JW：谢谢。HW：非常感谢。谢谢你。