【龙腾网】研究表明，三分之一的喜马拉雅冰川无法再被保存
In this Monday, Feb. 22, 2016 file photo, trekkers pass through a glacier at the Mount Everest base camp, Nepal. One-third of Himalayan glaciers will melt by the end of the century due to climate change, threatening water sources for 1.9 billion people, even if current efforts to reduce climate change succeed, according to an assessment released Monday, Feb. 4, 2019. by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. (AP Photo/Tashi Sherpa, file)
在这张拍摄于2016年2月22日星期一的照片中，徒步旅行者正在尼泊尔珠穆朗玛峰大本营的冰川中穿行。2019年2月4日(周一)发布的一份评估报告显示，到本世纪末，三分之一的喜马拉雅冰川将因气候变化而融化，这将威胁到19亿人的水源，即便目前减少气候变化的努力取得了成功。
KATHMANDU, Nepal (AP) — One-third of Himalayan glaciers will melt by the end of the century due to climate change, threatening water sources for 1.9 billion people, even if current efforts to reduce climate change succeed, an assessment warns.
尼泊尔加德满都(美联社)——据一份评估报告警告说，由于气候变化，到本世纪末，三分之一的喜马拉雅冰川将会融化，这将威胁到19亿人的水源，即使目前减少气候变化的努力取得了成功。
If global efforts to curb climate change fail, the impact could be far worse: a loss of two-thirds of the region's glaciers by 2100, said the Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment released Monday by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development.
国际山地综合开发中心(International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development)周一发布的兴都库什喜马拉雅(Hindu Kush Himalaya)评估报告称，如果全球遏制气候变化的努力失败，其影响可能会严重得多：到2100年，该地区三分之二的冰川将消失。
"Global warming is on track to transform the frigid, glacier-covered mountain peaks of the Hindu Kush Himalayas cutting across eight countries to bare rocks in a little less than a century," said Philippus Wester of the center, who led the report.
该中心的菲利普·韦斯特(Philippus Wester)是这份报告的负责人，他说:“全球变暖将在不到一个世纪的时间里，把兴都库什喜马拉雅山脉那些被冰川覆盖的寒冷山峰变成裸露的岩石。”
The five-year study looked at the effects of climate change on a region that cuts across Asia through Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, China, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The area, which includes the world's tallest mountain peaks, has glaciers that feed into river systems including the Indus, Ganges, Yangtze, Irrawaddy and Mekong.
这项为期五年的研究着眼于气候变化对亚洲地区的影响，该地区横跨阿富汗、巴基斯坦、印度、尼泊尔、中国、不丹、孟加拉国和缅甸。该地区包括世界上最高的山峰，冰川汇入印度河、恒河、长江、伊洛瓦底江和湄公河等水系。
The assessment said that the impact of the melting could range from flooding from the increased runoff to increased air pollution from black carbon and dust deposited on the glaciers.
该评估称，冰川融化的影响可能包括洪水、径流增加、黑碳和沉积在冰川上的灰尘所造成的空气污染加剧。
Saleemul Huq, director of the International Center for Climate Change and Development, an environmental research center in Dhaka, described the findings of the report as "very alarming," especially for downstream nations such as Bangladesh.
达卡环境研究中心——国际气候变化与发展中心主任萨利姆胡克(Saleemul Huq)称，该报告的发现“非常令人担忧”，尤其是对孟加拉国等下游国家而言。
"All the countries affected need to prioritize tackling this upcoming problem before it reaches crisis proportions," he said in an email. Huq was one of the study's external reviewers.
他在一封电子邮件中说，“所有受影响的国家都需要在这个即将到来的问题达到危机程度之前，优先解决它。”胡克是该研究的外部审稿人之一。
The study said that even if the most ambitious Paris climate accord goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century were met, more than a third of the region's glaciers will be lost. If the global rise in temperature were 2 C (3.6 F), two-thirds of Himalayan glaciers will melt, it said.
研究称，即使巴黎气候协议中最雄心勃勃的目标得以实现——到本世纪末将全球变暖控制在1.5摄氏度(2.7华氏度)以内，该地区三分之一以上的冰川也将消失。如果全球气温上升2摄氏度(3.6华氏度)，三分之二的喜马拉雅冰川将会融化。
The 2015 Paris Agreement was a landmark moment in international diplomacy, bringing together governments with vastly different views to tackle global warming. It set a headline target of keeping average global temperatures from rising by more than 2 C, or 1.5 C if possible.
2015年《巴黎协定》是国际外交的一个里程碑式时刻，各国政府在应对全球变暖问题上意见迥异。它设定了一个总体目标，即防止全球平均气温上升超过2摄氏度，如果可能的话，不超过1.5摄氏度。
According to a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emissions of the most abundant greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, would need to be reduced to a level the planet can absorb — known as net zero — by 2050 to keep global warming at 1.5 C as envisaged in the agreement.
根据政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)最近的一份报告，到2050年最丰富的温室气体二氧化碳的排放量需要降低到地球可以吸收的水平——也就是净零——以便按照协议的设想，将全球变暖控制在摄氏1.5度。
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development said the study included work by more than 350 researchers and policy experts from 22 countries. It said it had 210 authors and 125 external reviewers.
国际山地综合开发中心说，这项研究包括来自22个国家的350多名研究人员和政策专家的工作。有210位作者和125位外部审稿人。
The Kathmandu-based center said it receives donations from regional countries, non-regional countries such as Australia, Austria, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, and other international programs such as USAID.
这个设在加德满都的中心说，它接受来自地区国家、澳大利亚、奥地利、挪威、瑞士和英国等非地区国家以及美国国际开发署等其他国际项目的捐赠。
(评论部分)
Jim in CA
Interglacial： A comparatively short natural period of warmth during an overall period of glaciation. Interglacials are characterized both by the melting of ice producing a change in sea levels and by a change in vegetation.
See also: Holocene interglacial, Eemian interglacial, Sangamon interglacial, Yarmouth Interglacial stage (Obsolete), Marine Isotope Stage 5, Marine Isotope Stage 7, Marine Isotope Stage 9, Marine Isotope Stage 11. Marine Isotope Stage 13, Marine Isotope Stage 15, etc etc etc. (ending around MIS 104)
间冰期：在整个冰期中相对较短的自然温暖期。间冰期的特征是冰的融化导致海平面的变化，以及植被的变化。
参见：全新世间冰期、埃米安间冰期、桑加蒙间冰期、雅茅斯间冰期(已废弃)、海洋同位素5期、海洋同位素7期、海洋同位素9期、海洋同位素11期。海洋同位素13期，海洋同位素15期，等等(在MIS 104附近结束)
(注：海洋同位素阶段［Marine isotope stages，MIS］，又称海洋氧同位素阶段或氧同位素阶段，是根据深海钻孔沉积物中的氧同位素数据所反映的温度变化推断出来的地球古气候冷暖交替周期)
Ugly
Eventually trees and plants will replace the ice. Small creatures of the forest will return. Life will renew in this barren wasteland! It isn't all doom and gloom folks. Check to see how high above sea-level you live. If you're above 10 feet you've got nothing to worry about.
最终，树木和植物将取代冰。森林里的小动物会回来的。在这片贫瘠的荒原上，生命将得到新生!人们并不都是悲观的。看看你住的地方离海平面有多高。如果你在10英尺以上，你就没什么好担心的。
Zorro
This is the reason the Chinese will be the first to develop fully automated Soylent Green factories. That are moved around with giant dirigibles. And the Soylent picked up by robot drones. Like in the movie "Zardoz".
这就是为什么中国将率先发展完全自动化的Soylent绿色工厂。它们随着巨大的飞船四处移动。Soylent被机器人无人机接收。就像电影《Zardoz》里那样。
（注：《萨杜斯》zardoz电影简介，三百年后的地球为一群高级科学家所统治，他们奴役贱民以供自己享乐，但有一名野蛮的毁灭者闯进了科学家所建的世外桃源，使情况整个改观）
Josey Wales
If the glaciers have been feeding the rivers, I guess they have been melting for a long time already
如果冰川一直在滋养河流，我猜它们已经融化了很长一段时间了。
John
There are too many needless people on this planet.
这个星球上不必要的人太多了。
charles
When will China stop polluting our environment?
中国什么时候停止污染我们的环境?
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joesmith
Just another untested hypothesis put out by a moron who is stating his opinion. What's with the total lack of science in climate change "studies?"
只是一个白痴提出的另一个未经检验的假设，他不过是在发表自己的观点。“气候变化研究”完全缺乏科学依据，这是怎么回事？
MGC （回复楼上）
the great lying denier spews more mindless idiocy.
自大的说谎狂人说出了更多的愚蠢的话。
joesmith （回复楼上）
Well, that's real scientific. The glaciers ain't even that old.
这是很科学的。冰川还没那么古老。
Reverend Jim
The study was based on past reductions of glaciers in the area, and projecting forward.
该研究基于该地区过去冰川的减少，并预测未来。
joesmith
Did they test their hypothesis? Nope. Ergo, opinion. Never any science in climate articles.
他们检验他们的假设了吗？没有。因此这只是我的意见。从来没有任何科学的气候文章。
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Tom
Well from looking at some of the posts at least the Trump Tards are consistent: They put their EGO ahead of reason and logic (not that they're really capable or eason and logic).
The sea levels rise and swallow islands. The ice caps are shrinking. Glaciers are disappearing. One day Florida will be completely under water and they'll still deny global warming. All because their egos will never allow them to admit they were lied to and they themselves believed and propagated the lies.
从一些帖子来看，至少特朗普的观点是一致的：他们把自我置于理性和逻辑之上(并不是说他们真的有能力或理由、逻辑)。
海平面上升，吞没了岛屿。冰盖正在缩小，冰川正在消失。总有一天佛罗里达会完全被水淹没，他们还是会否认全球变暖。这都是因为他们的自尊心不允许他们承认自己被骗了，他们自己也相信并传播了这些谎言。
MikeyPooh
If requesting 'self-consistency' is EGOTISM then fine, i'm EGOTISTICAL. I do want REAL science that allows real predictions that don't change daily, and I have it for nearly every part of life but then i look at the alarmists and it's just pure insanity.
如果要求“自我一致性”是自我主义，那好吧，我就是自私自利。我确实想要真正的科学，让真实的预测不会每天都改变，我生活的每个部分几乎都有它。但当我看到危言耸听的人，这纯粹是精神错乱。
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Kevin
SO what? Probably another in a long list of failed exaggerated false predictions. The fluctuations in glaciers has been happening for eons. The benefits out weigh the problems by warming up slightly, too bad we have only .002% of anything to do with it.
那又怎样?这可能是一长串错误预测中的又一个。冰川的波动已经发生了好几个世纪。这样做的好处是稍稍预热一下就能抵消问题的影响，可惜我们只有0.002%与之相关的东西。
iuingaR
I find that the weather man is right about half the and long term weather reports usually a bust! Yeah, predict 80 years ahead with solar cooling taking effect! Scare us! LOL!!!
我发现天气预报员大约有一半是对的，而且长期的天气预报通常是错误的！是啊，预言80年前太阳冷却会生效！吓到我们了！哈哈！
Lucy Fi （回复楼上）
You have a really bad weather man where you live. Mine here in Houston is excellent.
你住的地方有个很差劲的天气预报员。我在休斯顿的预报员表现很出色。
Dave
So which of the extremely wide range of estimates for climate sensitivity to CO2 was used to come up with the scary sounding projections in this article?
And why is that crucial detail always left out of articles like this? Surely not because it is just more fear-mongering propaganda aimed at the gullible and scientifically illiterate, right?
那么，在这篇文章中，关于气候对二氧化碳的敏感性的极大范围的估计中，哪一个被用来得出听起来吓人的预测呢？
为什么像这样的文章总是忽略了关键的细节呢？当然不是因为它只是针对那些容易上当受骗和不懂科学知识的人的更多散布恐惧的宣传，对吗？
MikeyPooh
"carbon dioxide, would need to be reduced to a level the planet can absorb" WHAT is the level the planet can absorb?! How can they make statements like that all the time without ever asking the most basic questions!!! If you don't KNOW how much earth can absorb, then you don't KNOW what 'net zero' is!!!
“二氧化碳，需要降低到地球能吸收的水平”
“地球能吸收的水平是多少?”他们怎么能一直这样说，却从来不问最基本的问题！！如果你不知道地球能吸收多少，那么你就不知道什么是“净零”!!
TigerMan
"The 2015 Paris Agreement was a landmark moment in international diplomacy, bringing together governments with vastly different views to tackle global warming. It set a headline target of keeping average global temperatures from rising by more than 2 C, or 1.5 C if possible."
A bogus target pulled out of their.......
“2015年《巴黎协定》是国际外交的一个里程碑式的时刻，各国政府在应对全球变暖问题上的观点大相径庭。它设定了一个总体目标，即防止全球平均气温上升超过2摄氏度，如果可能的话，不超过1.5摄氏度。”
又一个从他们的嘴里说出的假目标……
Williamyesterday
Nothing can or will be done to prevent it....but...don't worry, the next ice age will replace them..
什么都不能也不会阻止它…但是…别担心，下一个冰河世纪将会取代它们…
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tod （楼主）
Please look up the Dansgaard Oeschger Cycle and then ask the AGW followers how they reconcile that science with their CO2 fetish.
去查阅“丹斯加德－奥斯切尔循环”，然后询问AGW的追随者，他们如何协调科学与他们对二氧化碳的迷恋。
（注："丹斯加德－奥斯切尔循环"是在上次冰期期间和末期非常有规律性地发生的迅速的气候波动。这种现象里有个周期性，如果能知道产生周期的原因，就能知道触发变化的因素）
PlentyCoups（回复楼上）
tod. when can we expect your actual evidence from scientific sources?
Tod，我们什么时候能从科学来源得到你的实际证据？
tod （楼主回复）
@PlentyCoups ...Nothing you post refutes what I posted, please troll elsewhere, you are boring...
你发的任何东西都不能反驳我所发的，请在其他地方搜索一下吧，你很无聊…
PlentyCoups
"there is no test that can differentiate a 12c isotope generated by a volcano, etc. from one generated by a power plant, etc. "
You're lying again. It's all you do.
A declining C13 ratio shows that the carbon is from a biological source and is not volcanic in origin.
你说“没有任何测试可以区分火山等产生的12C同位素和发电厂等产生的12C同位素。”
你又说谎了。这就是你所做的一切。C13比率的下降表明，碳来自生物来源，而不是火山来源。
Tod-" Science guesses the 12c isotope is from human sources because it shows up more in tests done and from the way they program and tune models"
More made up nonsense.
你还说过“科学推测12C同位素来自人类，因为它在实验中表现得更多，而且来自于他们编程和调整模型的方式。”
你又在胡言乱语了。
MikeyPooh
Speaking of C14, the closest we have to a controlled atmosphere experiment was the nuclear test ban of 1963. After the 1963 peak, C14 levels exhibited a half life of less than 9 years. Being heavier means it reacts more slowly, so C12 must have a half life much shorter than 9 years.
Man's emissions are only 3% of the NATURAL yearly emissions, and these natural emissions are largely a return to equilibrium between the sea and the rocks which not only compose the overwhelming majority of emissions, but they're also sources of old decayed carbon as well.
说到C14，我们所拥有的最接近受控大气实验的是1963年的核试验禁令。1963年达到峰值后，C14的半衰期不到9年。更重意味着它的反应更慢，所以C12的半衰期必须比9年短得多。
人类的排放量只占自然年排放量的3%，而这些自然排放量在很大程度上是恢复了海洋和岩石之间的平衡，海洋和岩石不仅占了排放量的绝大多数，而且也是旧的腐烂碳的来源。
Reverend Jim
Doesn't explain the current isotopic C fingerprint. The relative amount of C14 is lower than in the past because of burning of fossil fuels.
不能解释目前的同位素C指纹。由于燃烧化石燃料，C14的相对含量比过去要低。
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dali
In 100 years fresh water will be more valuable than oil.
100年后，淡水将比石油更有价值。
MikeyPooh
If anyone dies of thirst on a planet that is HALF water that is a statement of politics not science. Besides, a gallon of oil can easily desal and purify hundreds of gallons of yuck water.
在一个半水的星球上，如果有人死于干渴，不是科学。此外，一加仑的油可以很容易地去除和净化数百加仑的讨厌的水。
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2.0yesterday
I believe nature knows best. When going get tough the tough get going. Mother nature again will recover but humans might not
我相信大自然最清楚。当你变得坚强的时候，你就会变得强大。大自然母亲会再次恢复，但人类可能不会。
V
Humans don’t deserve to survive.
The planet will survive and heal itself eventually, but human beings will die out and the human race deserves to die off.
人类不配生存。
地球将会生存下来并最终自愈，但是人类将会灭绝，人类应该灭绝。
Derek
Humans still bicker in disbelief that they are the cause. We will be gone because of our own stupidity.
人类仍在争吵，不敢相信这就是原因。我们会因为自己的愚蠢而消失。
T T T
Nature does what nature does. Nature is reacting to increased CO2 naturally (warming) from humans. There's no tough going nor recover to Mother nature. Mother nature does what Mother nature does. It's an entropy of the universe.
自然做自身该做的事。这只不过是大自然是对人类不断增加的二氧化碳(变暖)的自然反应。没有艰难的过程，也没有恢复到大自然母亲的状态。大自然母亲做自己该做的事。这就是宇宙的熵。
