Trafficking dreams

交通梦想

Why China’s Didi can succeed where Uber has struggled

为什么中国的滴滴能在优步苦苦挣扎的领域取得成功

To glimpse the future of the ride-hailing business, look east

要窥探网约车业务的未来，向东方看齐

词汇

 ride-hailing/打车服务

Feb 20th 2021 | beijing

“WE INVEST A lot of money here in China,” proclaimed Travis Kalanick, founder and then boss of Uber, at a confab in Tianjin in June 2016. But, he added with foreboding, “we have a competitor who is investing even more.” Two months later the American ride-hailing giant threw in the towel, selling its Chinese operations to its Beijing-based rival, Didi. Uber lost some $2bn over two years in China. Its retreat paved the way for Didi to grow into China’s undisputed ride-hailing champion, which today processes over four-fifths of all domestic orders. The Chinese titan is widely expected to go public in the next few months, eight years after its launch. It could fetch a valuation of $60bn.

2016年6月，Uber的创始人兼老板特拉维斯·卡兰尼克(Travis Kalanick)在天津的一次会议上宣称:“我们在中国投资了很多钱。”但是，他充满预兆地补充说，“我们有一个竞争对手，它的投资甚至更多。”两个月后，这家美国网约车巨头认输了，将其中国业务卖给了总部位于北京的竞争对手滴滴。两年来，优步在中国损失了约20亿美元。优步的退出为滴滴成长为中国无可争议的叫车服务冠军铺平了道路。如今，中国超过五分之四的国内订单都是由滴滴处理的。外界普遍预计，在成立8年后的未来几个月，这家中国巨头公司将上市。它的估值可能达到600亿美元。

词汇

Confab/交谈；会议

 Foreboding/预感；先兆

throw in the towel/认输[give up in the face of defeat of lacking hope; admit defeat

]

Undisputed/无可争辩的；无异议的

 

That Uber was willing to burn through so much cash, at least for a time, is a testament to the size of the prize. China boasts the world’s biggest ride-hailing market. According to its transport ministry, 21m trips were booked on ride-hailing platforms each day, on average, last October. That is double the figure in pre-pandemic America, when travel was safer. Until it sold its Chinese business, Uber received more orders in China than in any other country, including its home market. The gross transaction value of China’s ride-hailers reached 221bn yuan ($32bn) last year, up by more than half since 2017, reckons Frost and Sullivan, a consultancy.

优步愿意烧这么多钱，至少在一段时间内如此，这证明了回报的大小。中国号称拥有世界上最大的网约车市场。根据中国交通部的数据，去年10月，网约车平台上平均每天预订的出行数量为2100万次。这是疫情前美国的两倍，当时旅行更安全。在出售中国业务之前，优步在中国收到的订单比其他任何国家都多，包括其本土市场。咨询公司Frost and Sullivan估计，去年中国打车服务的总交易额达到了2210亿元人民币(合320亿美元)，比2017年增长了一半以上。

 

America may have invented ride-hailing. But it is in China where the conditions are most fertile for it to flourish. The reasons go deeper than the size of the market. Didi has the most to gain. But its dominance will increasingly be contested.

美国可能发明了叫车服务。但中国的条件是最肥沃以便其壮大的。原因不仅仅是市场的规模。滴滴的收益最大。但它的主导地位将受到越来越多的挑战。

词汇

Fertile/富饶的，肥沃的

【地图故意少一部分，删了】

 

Ride-hailing firms depend disproportionately on customers in big cities, where population density is highest. Around a quarter of Uber’s gross bookings by value in 2019 came from just five metropolises: Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and London. China has 15 metropolitan areas with a population of over 10m (see map), more than any other country.

网约车公司不成比例地依赖人口密度最高的大城市的客户。2019年，约四分之一的优步总预订量来自五个大城市:芝加哥、洛杉矶、纽约、旧金山和伦敦。中国有15个人口超过1000万的大城市【原文是14，我查了下那边的人口换成了15】，(见地图)，比其他任何国家都多。

词汇

disproportionately /不成比例地

Metropolises/大城市

Most of these cities, keen to reduce rage-inducing congestion, discourage private car ownership by restricting the supply of licence plates. In Beijing’s most recent bi-monthly lottery 3.6m applicants competed for 6,370 number plates. Shanghai, China’s most populous city, puts a small number of plates up for auction each month. The average winning bid at the auction in January was 91,863 yuan, more than double what it was a decade ago and costlier than many mid-range cars (see chart). The southern boomtowns of Guangzhou and Shenzhen have hybrid models whereby some plates are allocated via lottery and the rest sold to bidders. All that leaves millions of disappointed wannabe motorists for ride-hailing firms to cater to.

这些城市中，大多数急于减少引发愤怒的交通拥堵，通过限制牌照的供应来抑制私家车的拥有量。在北京最近的双月摇号活动中，360万申请者争夺6370个车牌。上海是中国人口最多的城市，每个月都会拍卖少量车牌。今年1月拍卖会上的平均中标价为91863元，比十年前翻了一倍还多，比许多中档车都贵(见图表)。南方的新兴城市广州和深圳采用混合模式，一些车牌通过抽签分配，其余的卖给竞标者。所有这一切都让数以百万计失望的准司机等待网约车公司为其提供可能。

词汇

 Congestion/拥挤；拥塞

Lottery/彩票

 Boomtown/新兴都市

wannabe / 想达到目标的人；赶超崇拜者的人

 

Moreover, high urban density and the absence of American-style suburban sprawl turn parking space into a prized (and pricey) commodity. The number of public parking spaces per car in Beijing, China’s second-most populous city, is a fifth of that in its American opposite number, Los Angeles. China’s extensive high-speed rail network, the world’s longest, blunts the benefits of car ownership for long-distance travel. And cheaper labour means rides can be offered at low prices, making them accessible to a wider group of customers. More than 340m Chinese booked a ride-hailing service at least once in the first half of 2020, notes the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

此外，高城市密度和美国式郊区扩张的缺乏，使停车位成为一种珍贵(且昂贵)的商品。在中国人口第二多的城市北京，每辆车的公共停车位数量是美国洛杉矶的五分之一。中国庞大的高铁网络是世界上最长的，这削弱了拥有汽车对长途旅行的好处。更廉价的劳动力意味着可以以更低的价格提供乘车服务，使更多的顾客能够享受乘车服务。工业和信息化部(Ministry of Industry and Information Technology)指出，在2020年上半年，至少有3.4亿中国人预订了一次网约车服务。

词汇

Blunt/ 钝的，不锋利

 

In 2019 Didi disclosed that it was losing an average of just 2% of the total fare on each ride. The company now says its “core ride-hailing business in China is already profitable”. It is coy about the details; Uber also insists it makes money from ride-hailing but continues to report vast operating losses, of $4.9bn last year. Yet most analysts in China take Didi at its word. The question for Didi, they say, is not whether it can break even but rather how well it can sustain profits, maintain its near-monopoly in China and expand abroad.

2019年，滴滴透露，每次出行平均只损失总车费的2%。该公司现在表示，其“在中国的核心叫车业务已经实现盈利”。它对细节含糊其辞;（但在另外一边）优步还坚称，它从叫车服务中赚钱，但持续报告巨额运营亏损，去年亏损49亿美元。然而，中国的大多数分析师都相信滴滴的话。他们表示，滴滴的问题不在于它能否实现盈亏平衡，而在于它能在多大程度上维持利润、维持在中国的近乎垄断地位并向海外扩张。

词汇

Coy/ 腼腆的；忸怩作态的

 

In recent years the firm has expanded into new business lines, from bike-sharing and food delivery to financial services. The aim is to build up a convenient “ecosystem” to make it costlier for customers to switch to a rival platform. Those rival platforms are not standing still, however. Jack Wei, boss of Shouqi Yueche, Didi’s closest domestic competitor, is sanguine about the challengers’ prospects. He sees room for “multiple firms”, perhaps three or four, to thrive in China in the long term.

近年来，该公司已扩展到新的业务线，从自行车共享和食品配送到金融服务。其目的是建立一个方便的“生态系统”，使消费者转向竞争平台的成本更高。然而，这些竞争平台并没有停滞不前。滴滴最大的国内竞争对手、首汽悦车的老板魏建伟(Jack Wei)对挑战者的前景持乐观态度。他认为“多家公司”，也许是三到四家，在中国有长期发展的空间。

 

One way to carve out a bigger slice of the market is through differentiation, Mr Wei suggests. Shouqi prides itself on premium customer service (as Lyft, Uber’s domestic rival, tries to). Its ambition is to become the “leader” in upscale rides while “keeping up” with Didi in the mass market. China is large enough that serving this niche is big business. Shouqi expects to turn a net profit this year on revenues of 8bn yuan.

魏建伟建议，开拓更大市场份额的方法之一是通过差异化。首汽以优质的客户服务为傲(优步的国内竞争对手Lyft也在努力做到这一点)。首汽悦车的雄心是成为高端出行领域的“领先者”，同时在大众市场上“跟上”滴滴。中国足够大，服务于这个利基市场（有利可图的市场）是一笔大生意。首汽预计今年营收将达到80亿元人民币，实现净利润。

词汇

niche /利基（niche)市场（即被市场中有绝对优势企业忽略的某些细分市场）

  

Another path is to forge strategic alliances. Shouqi has one with Meituan, a rising Chinese e-commerce star that offers, among other things, food-delivery and bike-sharing services. The agreement allows Meituan’s 477m annual active users to book Shouqi rides directly in its super-app. In return Shouqi pays Meituan a small commission on each booking. Crucially, Meituan excludes Didi, which it views as a threat, from its platform.

另一条途径是建立战略联盟。首汽与中国正在崛起的电商明星美团(Meituan)合作，提供送餐和共享单车等服务。该协议允许美团4.77亿年活跃用户在其超级应用上直接预订首汽。作为回报，首汽向美团支付每笔预订的少量佣金。至关重要的是，美团将其视为威胁的滴滴排除在其平台之外。

 

Despite its advantages, the Chinese market presents some obstacles. As in the West, the authorities are concerned about big tech. In December the markets regulator summoned six online giants, including Didi, and lectured them on how not to abuse their dominant positions. At the local level, more than a hundred municipalities have drafted stricter rules on who can drive for ride-hailing firms over the past four years. The aim appears to be to appease embattled local taxi industries. The rules typically set a high bar, such as requiring existing residency status in the city where a driver wants to work. Yet most drivers are migrant workers who lack the proper papers. In 2016 Didi complained that only 3% of its 410,000 drivers in Shanghai would have passed the test.

尽管中国市场有优势，但也存在一些障碍。与西方一样，中国当局也对大型科技公司感到担忧。去年12月，市场监管机构召集了包括滴滴在内的六家互联网巨头，告诫他们不要滥用自己的主导地位。在地方层面，过去四年来，100多个城市已经就谁可以为网约车公司开车起草了更严格的规定。此举的目的似乎是为了安抚陷入困境的当地出租车行业。这些规定通常设置了很高的门槛，比如要求司机想要工作的城市拥有现有的居民身份。然而，大多数司机都是没有合法证件的外来务工人员。2016年，滴滴抱怨称，在上海的41万名司机中，只有3%能通过测试。

词汇

Embattled/严阵以待的；被敌人围困的

 

The arrival of self-driving cars, which Didi has been developing since 2016, may one day solve this problem, though probably not imminently (last year Uber called it quits and spun off its autonomous-vehicle arm). In the meantime, Didi is hedging its bets by diversifying. In 2017 it set up an international division. A chunk of the $4.5bn it raised a year later was earmarked for foreign expansion. Today it operates in 13 overseas markets, mainly in Latin America. Three years ago it acquired a controlling stake in 99 Taxi, which competes with Uber in Brazil, in a deal that valued the Brazilian startup at around $1bn.

自2016年以来滴滴一直在开发自动驾驶汽车，它的到来也许有一天会解决这个问题，尽管可能不是迫在眉睫(去年优步宣布退出，并剥离了自动驾驶汽车部门)。与此同时，滴滴正在通过多元化来对冲风险。2017年，它成立了一个国际部门。一年后筹集的45亿美元资金中，有很大一部分用于海外扩张。如今，它的业务遍及13个海外市场，主要集中在拉丁美洲。三年前，优步收购了99 Taxi的控股权，这是其在巴西与优步竞争时，以约为10亿美元的对这家巴西初创企业估值拿下

词汇

spin/纺线；结网[过去分词spun]

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