By: Tao Steven Zheng （郑涛）2021-07-22

原文英语＋中文翻译

Socio-economic dynamics is a theory that aims to analyze and evaluate the underlying structure and mechanisms of a socio-economic system using mathematics, physics, philosophy, and psychology. For brevity, any socio-economic system will be called an Order. The Order is essentially the body of people, ideas, principles, institutions, and social fabric that are involved in constructing, developing, and maintaining the overarching “operating system” of a State. For an analogy, think of the State as the body, and the Order as the mind. The process of change from one Order to another Order is characterized by five major developmental stages:

 

第1部分：秩序的阶段

社会-经济动力学（socio-economic dynamics） 是应用数学、物理、哲学、心理学来分析和评价社会-经济系统内在结构和机制的理论。简而言之，任何社会经济系统都被称为秩序（Order）。秩序本质上是人、思想、原则、制度和社会结构的主体，这些人、思想、原则、制度和社会结构参与了一个国家（State）的总体“操作系统”（operating system）的构建、发展和维护。举个比喻，把国家想象成身体，把秩序想象成心灵。从一个秩序到另一个秩序的转变过程有五个发展阶段：

 

Stage 1: Establishment

Every Order begins with establishment. The establishment stage begins with certain powerful individuals (i.e. politicians, religious leaders, and business leaders, a.k.a “the oligarchs”) creating institutions that legitimize control over certain dimensions of the Order or even the entire Order (social, political, and economic). Once the powerful elite individuals has legitimately taken full control of all dimensions within the Order, the powerful elite succeed in monopolizing power. This is called power monopolization.

 

第一阶段：成立/奠定（Establishment）

每一个秩序都始于成立。成立阶段始于某些有权势的人（即政治家、宗教领袖和企业领导，又称“寡头们the oligarchs” ）创建的政治制度（institutions），使对秩序的某些方面（dimensions，直译“维度”）甚至整个秩序（社会、政治和经济）的控制合法化。一旦强大的精英阶层（寡头们）把各体合法，然后完全控制了秩序中的所有方面，强大的寡头们就成功地垄断了权力。这就是所谓的权力垄断（power monopolization）。

 

Stage 2: Progression

Once the monopolization of power is in place, the Order is in position to develop. Development can move in two directions: upwards, which is called positive development or progression; and downwards, which is called negative development or regression. Ideally, the oligarchs want to move towards progressive development because the masses view such results as beneficial and motivational. Psychologically speaking, the people will perceive the oligarchs as competent leaders who deserve to rule them, thus further legitimizing their place in power. However, progression will eventually end, and the end of progress usually begins with inefficiencies that emerge from within the Order itself, or outside forces beyond the capabilities of the Order to control.

Note: If an establishment fails to make progress, the Order will usually skip Stage 3 and move to Stage 4.

 

第二阶段：进展（Progression）

一旦权力垄断到位，秩序就可以发展了。秩序可以朝两个方向发展：向上，这被称为正面发展（positive development）或进步（progression）；向下，称为负面发展（negative development）或退步（regression）。在理想情况下，寡头们希望朝着进步的方向发展，因为群众（masses）认为这样的结果是有益的和有动力的。从心理上讲，人民将把寡头视为称职的领导人，理应统治他们，从而使他们的权力地位进一步合法化。然而，进步最终会结束，它通常以秩序内部出现的低效或秩序无法控制的外部推动力开始逆转。

注：如果一个秩序未能取得进展，该秩序通常会跳过第三阶段，转入第四阶段。

 

Stage 3: Stagnation

Assuming that the Order has made tremendous progress since its inception, there will be a point in time where the rate of progress will begin to decline. This “inflection point” of positive development marks the end of what could have been perceived as infinite growth in the early phase, and the beginning of slowed growth. Mathematically speaking, this is the transition from the initial Malthusian growth pattern to a Logistic growth pattern later in the progression. This “late stage progress” loses momentum and eventually plateaus until it approaches zero real growth. This zero real growth is called stagnation. The starting point of this slowed process of development, the inflection point, marks the beginning of involution. Here, involution means that within any Order, there is a point in which internal and external complications (could be social, economic, most likely both) begins to put pressure on the Order and manifests inefficiencies that erode development. Such complications can be explained by excess population where 80% of the population is not very productive, a large-scale loss in faith of existing social and moral values, the upward distribution of wealth to the oligarchs, or fate-changing environmental damage beyond the control of those in power. One thing is for certain, every Order that ever existed has experienced involution, and consequently, socio-economic stagnation and collapse.

 

第三阶段：停滞（Stagnation）

假设该秩序自成立以来取得了巨大进展，那么在某个时间点，进展速度（rate of progress）将开始下降。这一正面发展的“拐点”（inflection point）标志着本可以被视为早期无限增长阶段的结束，以及增长放缓的开始。从数学上讲，这是从最初的马尔萨斯增长模式（Malthusian growth pattern）到后来的逻辑斯蒂增长模式（Logistic growth pattern）的转变。这种“后期进展”失去了动力，并最终停滞不前，直到接近零实际增长（zero real growth）。这种零实际增长被称为停滞（stagnation）。这一缓慢发展过程的起点、拐点，标志着内卷化（involution）的开始。在这里，内卷化意味着在任何秩序中，都有一个点，即内部和外部的复杂因素（可能是社会的、经济的，很可能是两者兼而有之）开始对秩序施加压力，并表现出侵蚀发展的低效。这种复杂情况可以解释为人口过剩，即80%的人口生产力不高，对现有社会和道德价值观的信仰大规模丧失，财富向上分配给寡头，或者改变命运的环境破坏超出了当权者的控制。有一个论点是肯定的，所有曾经存在的秩序都经历过内卷化，从而导致社会经济停滞，并走向崩溃。

 

Stage 4: Regression

What marks the end of stagnation is a turning point that guides the Order towards the downward path of regression. Regression is characterized by the corruption and decaying of institutions, the decrease in material wealth among the majority of the population, and the self-destructive behaviours at the Individual level to eventually the State level. Both existential crises is best captured by the term anomie, a term coined by French sociologist Emile Durkheim (1858–1917) to explain the uprooting or breakdown of moral values, standards, or guidance that once held society together. In other words, people lose faith in the Order and give up on society, opting to flight or fight. When an Order regresses to this stage, it will collapse. This eventual collapse of an Order has many possible causes and more than one potential outcomes.

 

第四阶段：退步（Regression）

标志着停滞结束的是一个转折点，它引导着向下的退步（regression）发展道路。退步的特点是机构腐败和衰败，大多数人口财富购买力减少，以及个人层次（Individual level）到最终达到国家层次（State level）的自我毁灭行为。这两个存在危机都最好用道德失范（anomie）这个词来解释。道德失范这个词是法国社会学家埃米尔·迪尔凯姆（Emile Durkheim，1858-1917）首创的，用来解释道德价值观、标准或指导原则的被拔除或瓦解。换句话说，人们对秩序失去信心，放弃社会，只能选择逃避或斗争（flight or fight）。当一个秩序退步到这个阶段时，它将会崩溃。秩序崩溃有许多因素，不止一个潜在的结果。

 

Stage 5: Collapse and Post-Collapse

When the Order collapses, all hell breaks loose and chaos ensues. There will be a lot of deaths, a lot of looting, and bellicose displays of protest and violence. The protest and violence could be caused by a civilian uprising or a coup, or it could be caused by foreign influences such as a military invasion by outsiders. Historically, many civilizations called these outsiders “barbarians”. When one Order shifts to another Order, the process is called evolution. The new Order adapts to the current conditions and adopts a socio-economic system most appropriate for monopolizing power.

Here is a list of potential outcomes of Order collapse:

(1)  Invasion: Foreigners take the opportunity to strike an invasion when the Order is at its weakest point. The invaders hope to conquer and install their institutions so they can assimilate (subjugate and convert) the conquered people into their culture. Example: Rome being invaded by Hunnic and Germanic tribes.

(2)  Fragmentation: This is when two or more “strongmen” warlords who vie for their share of what power is left for grabs from the collapsed Order. Multiple Orders or multi-polar Orders will be established, some are Revolutionary movements; others are reactionary movements. Revolutionary movements replaces the previous Order with a more modern socio-economic system. Example: Democratic republic ---> Technocracy. Reactionary movements replaces the previous Order with a more archaic “old-school” socio-economic system. Example: Democratic republic ---> Theocracy.

(3)  Revolution: When the people find it impossible to survive under a given Order, they will opt to revolt out of discontent, and demand a change in Order. Zealous Revolutionaries will slaughter anyone who opposes their ideological path (including the oligarchs) in hope of overthrowing the corrupted Order. If the Revolution is successful, a new Order will be established (see Stage 1). Example: Tsarist Russia ---> Soviet Union.

 

第五阶段：崩溃与崩溃后（Collapse and Post-Collapse）

当秩序崩溃的时候，所有事情好像天都塌下来了，混乱随之而来。将会有大量的死亡，大量的抢劫，以及恶劣的抗议和暴力行为。抗议和暴力可能是由平民起义或政变引起的，也可能是外来势力的影响，如外来势力的军事入侵。历史上，许多文明称这些外来者为“野蛮人”。当一个秩序转化成另一个秩序时，这个过程就叫作演化（evolution）。取代原秩序的新秩序会考虑现状条件，采取最适合垄断权力的社会-经济制度。

以下列出秩序崩溃后的几种潜在后果：

（1） 侵入（invasion）：外国人趁机在秩序最薄弱的时候攻击。他们希望征服之后能建立他们的制度，建立他们的秩序，令被征服的人融入他们的文化。例子：罗马帝国被匈奴、日耳曼人侵入。

（2） 分裂（fragmentation）：当一个秩序崩溃，紧接着是两个或两个以上“强人”军阀管控。这些军阀争夺秩序前剩下的部分之后会建立多元秩序（multi-polar order）。有的是革命派（Revolutionary movements）的，有的是反动派（reactionary movements）的。革命派推翻了前秩序之后，取代的是比较现代化的社会-经济制度。例如：民主共和国 ---> 技术专家政体。反动派推翻了前秩序之后，取代的是更古老的社会-经济制度。例如：民主共和国 ---> 神权政体。

（3）革命（Revolution）：当人民发现在本秩序下已经无法生存时，他们会选择因为不满而起义，要求改变秩序。狂热的革命者会屠杀任何反对他们意识形态道义上的人（包括寡头）来推翻腐败的秩序。如果革命成功的话，革命者会建立一个新秩序（见第一阶段）。例如：沙皇俄罗斯 ---> 苏联。