【管理辞典】新型风险 / Novel Risks

「释义」

新型风险产生于以前没有想过或没有看到的情况。新型风险使常规的风险管理变得无效，更严重的是，使管理层误以为风险已经减轻，而事实上，新型风险可能会升级为严重甚至致命的后果。

「应用场景」

新型风险逐渐显现的一个最明显的标志就是出现异常现象，即无法理解的事物。这点说起来似乎是理所当然的，但许多异常现象其实很难察觉和应对。

The clearest signal that a novel risk is emerging is anomalies—things that just don’t make sense. This sounds obvious, but most anomalies are difficult for people to recognize or process.

比如上文提过的两个例子。有经验的半导体元件采购负责人原本应当充分认识到，哪怕是小型火灾也会产生烟尘，扑救过程也要用到很多水，很可能影响无尘车间。波音公司的高层风险管理负责人理应熟悉复杂的工程项目，应当能够预见到，让一级供应商接手从未做过的重大任务、采用此前从未在大型飞机上使用过的新型材料、以全新的电子控制系统取代原本的模拟液压控制系统，很可能会造成新型风险。

Take two of the cases already described. An experienced purchasing manager for semiconductors should arguably have realized that the soot, smoke, and large quantities of water that accompany even a minor fire could compromise the integrity of clean rooms. A senior risk manager at Boeing, presumably familiar with complex engineering projects, should have anticipated that novel risks could arise in the development of a plane when first-tier suppliers were performing major tasks they had never done before, the plane incorporated materials never used before at such a scale in a large aircraft, and familiar analog hydraulic controls were replaced with entirely new electronic ones.

以上文字选自《哈佛商业评论》中文版2020年11月刊《无法预测的风险》

罗伯特·卡普兰（Robert S. Kaplan） 赫尔曼·伦纳德（Herman B. Leonard） 安内特·米凯什（Anette Mikes） | 文

马冰仑 丨编辑