经济学权威期刊The Review of Economics and Statistics 2023年第1期

The Review of Economics and Statistics  2023年第1期

 

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1.Saving Lives by Tying Hands: The Unexpected Effects of Constraining Health Care Providers

牵手拯救生命:约束医疗服务提供者的意外效果

Jonathan Gruber, Thomas P. Hoe, George Stoye

We study how emergency department (ED) doctors respond to incentives to reduce wait times. We use bunching techniques to study an English policy that imposed strong incentives to treat patients within four hours. The policy reduced time spent in the ED by 21 minutes for affected patients yet caused doctors to increase treatment intensity and admit more patients. We find a striking 14% reduction in mortality. Analysis of patient severity and hospital crowding strongly suggests it is the wait time reduction that saves lives. We conclude that, despite distorting medical decisions, constraining ED doctors can induce cost-effective reductions in mortality.

我们研究急诊科(ED)医生如何对减少等待时间的激励做出反应。我们使用聚类技术来研究英国的一项政策，该政策施加了强烈的激励，在四小时内治疗患者。该政策将受影响患者在急诊室的时间减少了21分钟，但却导致医生增加了治疗强度，收治了更多患者。我们发现死亡率显著降低了14%。对患者严重程度和医院拥挤程度的分析强烈表明，减少等待时间是挽救生命的关键。我们的结论是，尽管扭曲了医疗决策，但限制急诊医生可以从成本效益上降低死亡率。

 

 

2.Rent-Seeking and Criminal Politicians: Evidence from Mining Booms

寻租和犯罪政客:矿业繁荣的证据

Sam Asher, Paul Novosad

We study how natural resource rents affect the selection and behavior of holders of public office. Using global price shocks to thirty-one minerals and nationwide geological and political data from India, we show that local mineral rent shocks cause the election of politicians charged with serious crimes. We also find a moral hazard effect: politicians commit more crimes and accumulate greater wealth when mineral prices rise during their terms in office. These politicians have direct influence over mining operations but no access to fiscal windfalls from mining; we thus isolate the direct political impacts of mining sector operations.

本文研究自然资源租金如何影响公职人员的选择和行为。利用全球31种矿产的价格冲击以及印度全国范围内的地质和政治数据，我们发现，地方矿产租金冲击导致被控严重犯罪的政客当选。我们还发现了道德风险效应:当矿产价格在政客任期内上涨时，他们会犯下更多的罪行，积累更多的财富。这些政客对采矿业务有直接影响，但无法从采矿中获得财政意外收益;因此，我们孤立了采矿部门业务的直接政治影响。

 

 

3.Beliefs about Racial Discrimination and Support for Pro-Black Policies

对种族歧视的信仰和对亲黑人政策的支持

Ingar Haaland, Christopher Roth

This paper provides representative evidence on beliefs about racial discrimination and examines whether information causally affects support for pro-black policies. Eliciting quantitative beliefs about the extent of hiring discrimination against blacks, we uncover large disagreement about the extent of racial discrimination with particularly pronounced partisan differences. An information treatment leads to a convergence in beliefs about racial discrimination but does not lead to a similar convergence in support of pro-black policies. The results demonstrate that while providing information can substantially reduce disagreement about the extent of racial discrimination, it is not sufficient to reduce disagreement about pro-black policies.

本文提供了关于种族歧视信念的代表性证据，并检验了信息是否会对支持黑人的政策产生因果影响。在引出关于雇佣歧视黑人程度的定量信念后，我们发现了关于种族歧视程度的巨大分歧，特别是明显的党派分歧。信息处理导致对种族歧视的信念趋同，但不会导致对支持黑人政策的类似趋同。研究结果表明，虽然提供信息可以大大减少关于种族歧视程度的分歧，但这并不足以减少关于支持黑人政策的分歧。

 

 

4.Sinning in the Rain: Weather Shocks, Church Attendance, and Crime

雨中犯罪:天气冲击，做礼拜和犯罪

Jonathan Moreno-Medina

This paper provides evidence of the causal effect of church attendance on petty crime by using quasi-random variation in the number of Sundays when it precipitated at the specific time of most religious services. Using a novel strategy, I find a narrow time window when most individuals attend church. Based on a panel between 1980 and 2016, I find that one more Sunday with precipitation at the time of church increases yearly drug-related, alcohol-related, and white-collar crimes. I do not find an effect for violent or property crimes. These effects are driven by more religious counties. Previous evidence showing negative effects of church attendance on the demand for alcohol and drugs is consistent with a demand-driven interpretation of the results presented.

本文利用周日的数量在大多数宗教活动的特定时间发生的准随机变化，提供了去教堂做礼拜对轻微犯罪的因果影响的证据。使用一种新颖的策略，我发现大多数人去教堂的时间窗口都很窄。基于1980年至2016年的一个小组讨论，我发现，在教堂做礼拜时，多一个星期天的降水，每年与毒品、酒精和白领有关的犯罪就会增加。我没有发现对暴力或财产犯罪的影响。这些影响是由宗教较多的国家推动的。以前的证据表明，去教堂对酒精和药物需求有负面影响，这与对报告结果的需求驱动解释是一致的。

 

 

5.Approximate Variational Estimation for a Model of Network Formation

网络形成模型的近似变分估计

Angelo Mele, Lingjiong Zhu

We develop approximate estimation methods for exponential random graph models (ERGMs), whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations; however, convergence may be exponentially slow. We propose a deterministic method, based on a variational mean-field approximation of the ERGM's normalizing constant. We compute lower and upper bounds for the approximation error for any network size, adapting nonlinear large deviation results. This translates into bounds on the distance between true likelihood and mean-field likelihood. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that in practice, our deterministic method performs better than our conservative theoretical approximation bounds imply, for a large class of models.

我们开发了指数随机图模型(ERGMs)的近似估计方法，其可能性与一个棘手的标准化常数成比例。通常的方法是用蒙特卡罗模拟来近似这个常数;然而，收敛速度可能呈指数级缓慢。我们提出了一个确定性方法，基于变分平均场近似的ERGM的归一化常数。我们计算了任何网络大小的逼近误差的下界和上界，采用非线性大偏差结果。这转化为真实似然和平均场似然之间距离的界限。蒙特卡罗模拟表明，在实践中，我们的确定性方法的性能优于我们的保守理论逼近边界暗示，对于大类模型。

 

 

6.The Micro-Origins of Business Cycles: Evidence from German Metropolitan Areas

商业周期的微观起源:来自德国大都市的证据

Federica Daniele, Heiko Stüber

How large is volatility due to large firms? We answer this question through both reduced-form analysis and a calibration exercise. First, we exploit time and spatial variation across German cities and show that higher concentration is associated with more persistent local business cycles, and local concentration Granger causes local employment volatility. From a business cycle perspective, we find evidence in favor of granularity-driven recessions only. Next, we calibrate a structural model along the lines of Carvalho and Grassi (2019) and find that the more fat-tailed productivity distribution in bigger cities crucially depends also on the higher probability that firms will grow.

大公司造成的波动有多大?我们通过简化形式分析和校准练习来回答这个问题。首先，我们利用德国城市间的时间和空间变化，发现更高的集中度与更持久的本地商业周期相关，而本地集中度格兰杰导致本地就业波动。从商业周期的角度来看，我们发现的证据只支持粒度驱动的衰退。接下来，我们按照Carvalho和Grassi(2019)的方法校准了一个结构模型，发现较大城市的厚尾生产率分布在很大程度上也取决于企业增长的可能性更高。

 

 

 

7.Exchange Rate Shocks and Quality Adjustments

汇率冲击与质量调整

Daniel Goetz, Alexander Rodnyansky

Do firms respond to cost shocks by reducing the quality of their products? Using microdata from a large Russian retailer that refreshes its product line twice-yearly, we document that higher quality products are more profitable than lower quality ones, but that the number of high-quality products experiences a relative decrease after a large ruble devaluation in 2014. We show that rising firm costs—and not shrinking consumer incomes—explains the reallocation, and rationalize the data with a model that features consumer expenditure switching between high and low qualities. The reallocation to lower quality products reduces average pass-through by 26%.

企业是否通过降低产品质量来应对成本冲击?利用俄罗斯一家大型零售商每年更新其产品线两次的微观数据，我们发现，高质量产品比低质量产品更有利可图，但在2014年卢布大幅贬值后，高质量产品的数量出现了相对下降。我们的研究表明，企业成本的上升(而不是消费者收入的减少)解释了再分配现象，并通过一个消费者支出在高质量和低质量之间转换的模型对数据进行了合理化。向低质量产品的重新分配减少了26%的平均传递。

 

 

8.Targeted Undersmoothing: Sensitivity Analysis for Sparse Estimators

目标欠平滑:稀疏估计的灵敏度分析

Christian Hansen, Damian Kozbur, Sanjog Misra

This paper proposes a procedure for assessing the sensitivity of inferential conclusions for functionals of sparse high-dimensional models following model selection. The proposed procedure is called targeted undersmoothing. Functionals considered include dense functionals that may depend on many or all elements of the high-dimensional parameter vector. The sensitivity analysis is based on systematic enlargements of an initially selected model. By varying the enlargements, one can conduct sensitivity analysis about the strength of empirical conclusions to model selection mistakes. We illustrate the procedure's performance through simulation experiments and two empirical examples.

本文提出了一种基于稀疏高维模型泛函的推理结论敏感性评估方法。建议的程序被称为有针对性的欠平滑处理。所考虑的泛函包括可能依赖于高维参数向量的许多或所有元素的密集泛函。敏感性分析是在对初步选择的模型进行系统放大的基础上进行的。通过改变放大率，可以对实证结论的强度对模型选择错误进行敏感性分析。通过仿真实验和两个实例说明了该方法的性能。

 

 

9.Approximate Variational Estimation for a Model of Network Formation

网络形成模型的近似变分估计

Angelo Mele, Lingjiong Zhu

We develop approximate estimation methods for exponential random graph models (ERGMs), whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations; however, convergence may be exponentially slow. We propose a deterministic method, based on a variational mean-field approximation of the ERGM's normalizing constant. We compute lower and upper bounds for the approximation error for any network size, adapting nonlinear large deviation results. This translates into bounds on the distance between true likelihood and mean-field likelihood. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that in practice, our deterministic method performs better than our conservative theoretical approximation bounds imply, for a large class of models.

我们开发了指数随机图模型(ERGMs)的近似估计方法，其可能性与一个棘手的标准化常数成比例。通常的方法是用蒙特卡罗模拟来近似这个常数;然而，收敛速度可能呈指数级缓慢。我们提出了一个确定性方法，基于变分平均场近似的ERGM的归一化常数。我们计算了任何网络大小的逼近误差的下界和上界，采用非线性大偏差结果。这转化为真实似然和平均场似然之间距离的界限。蒙特卡罗模拟表明，在实践中，我们的确定性方法的性能优于我们的保守理论逼近边界暗示，对于大类模型。

 

 

10.Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions

向量自回归的内生时间变化

Danilo Leiva-León, Luis Uzeda

We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence the dynamics of the coefficients in these models. An estimation algorithm and a parameterization conducive to model comparison are also provided. We apply our framework to the U.S. economy. Scenario analysis suggests that once accounting for the influence of structural shocks on the autoregressive coefficients, the effects of monetary policy on economic activity are larger and more persistent than in an otherwise standard TVP-VAR. Our results also indicate that cost-push shocks play a prominent role in understanding historical changes in inflation-gap persistence.

我们引入了一类新的时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VARs)，其中已识别的结构创新被允许影响这些模型中系数的动态。给出了一种便于模型比较的估计算法和参数化方法。我们将我们的框架应用于美国经济。情景分析表明，在考虑了结构冲击对自回归系数的影响后，货币政策对经济活动的影响比标准的TVP-VAR更大、更持久。我们的结果还表明，成本推动冲击在理解通胀缺口持续性的历史变化方面发挥了突出作用。

 

 

11.Cash Transfers and Migration: Theory and Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

现金转移和移民:来自随机对照试验的理论和证据

Jules Gazeaud, Eric Mvukiyehe, Olivier Sterck

Will the fast expansion of cash-based programming in poor countries increase international migration? Theoretically, cash transfers may deter migration by increasing its opportunity cost or favor migration by relaxing liquidity, credit, and risk constraints. This paper evaluates the impact of a cash-for-work program on migration. Randomly selected households in Comoros were offered up to US$320 in cash in exchange for their participation in public works projects. We find that the program increased international migration by 38% from 7.8% to 10.8%. The increase in migration appears to be driven by the alleviation of liquidity and risk constraints.

以现金为基础的方案在贫穷国家的快速扩张是否会增加国际移民?理论上，现金转移可能通过增加转移的机会成本来阻止转移，也可能通过放松流动性、信贷和风险约束来促进转移。本文评估了工作换现金计划对移民的影响。在科摩罗随机选择的家庭被提供高达320美元的现金，以换取他们参与公共工程项目。我们发现，该项目使国际移民从7.8%增加了38%，达到10.8%。移民的增加似乎是由流动性和风险约束的缓解所推动的。

 

 

12.How Much Do Consumers Value Fuel Economy and Performance? Evidence from Technology Adoption

消费者有多重视燃油经济性和性能?来自技术采用的证据

Benjamin Leard, Joshua Linn, Yichen Christy Zhou

During historical periods in which U.S. fuel economy standards were unchanging, automakers increased performance but not fuel economy, contrasting with recent periods of tightening standards and rising fuel economy. This paper evaluates the welfare consequences of automakers forgoing performance increases to raise fuel economy as standards have tightened since 2012. Using a unique data set and a novel approach to account for fuel economy and performance endogeneity, we find undervaluation of fuel cost savings and high valuation of performance. Welfare costs of forgone performance approximately equal expected fuel savings benefits, suggesting approximately zero net private consumer benefit from tightened standards.

在美国燃油经济性标准不变的历史时期，汽车制造商提高了业绩，但没有提高燃油经济性，这与最近标准收紧和燃油经济性上升的时期形成了鲜明对比。本文评估了自2012年标准收紧以来，汽车制造商放弃提高业绩以提高燃油经济性的福利后果。使用独特的数据集和一种新的方法来考虑燃料经济性和性能内生性，我们发现燃料成本节约被低估，而性能估值过高。放弃性能的福利成本大约等于预期的燃料节省效益，这表明收紧标准对私人消费者的净收益大约为零。

 

 

13.Herding and Contrarianism: A Matter of Preference?

羊群行为和逆向行为:偏好问题?

Chad Kendall

Herding and contrarian strategies produce informational inefficiencies when investors ignore private information, instead following or bucking past trends. In a simple market model, I show theoretically that investors with prospect theory preferences generically follow herding or contrarian strategies, but do so because of future returns as opposed to past trends. I conduct a laboratory experiment to test the theory and obtain an estimate of the distribution of preferences in the subject population. I find that approximately 70% of subjects have preferences that induce herding. Using the preference estimates, I quantify informational efficiencies and predict trade behavior in more general environments.

当投资者忽视私人信息，转而追随或逆市过去的趋势时，羊群和反向策略会产生信息效率低下。在一个简单的市场模型中，我从理论上表明，具有前景理论偏好的投资者通常遵循羊群策略或反向策略，但这样做是因为未来的回报与过去的趋势相反。我进行了一个实验室实验，以测试该理论，并获得了偏好在受试者群体中的分布的估计。我发现，大约70%的受试者有诱导羊群效应的偏好。利用偏好估计，我量化了信息效率，并预测了更一般环境中的交易行为。

 

 

14.Paying Outsourced Labor: Direct Evidence from Linked Temp Agency-Worker-Client Data

支付外包劳动力:临时工机构-工人-客户数据的直接证据

Andres Drenik, Simon Jäger, Pascuel Plotkin, Benjamin Schoefer

We estimate how much firms differentiate pay premia between regular and outsourced workers in temp agency work arrangements. We leverage unique Argentinian administrative data that feature links between user firms (the workplaces where temp workers perform their labor) and temp agencies (their formal employers). We estimate that a high-wage user firm that pays a regular worker a 10% premium pays a temp worker on average only a 4.9% premium, compared to what these workers would earn in a low-wage user firm in their respective work arrangements. This 49% pass-through constitutes the midpoint between the benchmarks for insiders (one) and the competitive spot-labor market (zero).

我们估计了公司在临时机构工作安排中如何区分正规工人和外包工人的薪酬溢价。我们利用了阿根廷独特的行政数据，这些数据显示了用户公司(临时工人工作的工作场所)和临时机构(他们的正式雇主)之间的联系。我们估计，与低工资用户公司的工人在各自的工作安排中获得的收入相比，向正式工人支付10%保险费的高工资用户公司平均只向临时工人支付4.9%的保险费。这49%的传递构成了内部人员基准(1)和竞争激烈的现货劳动力市场基准(0)之间的中点。

 

 

15.Fiscal Incentives for Conflict: Evidence from India's Red Corridor

冲突的财政激励:来自印度红色走廊的证据

Jacob N. Shapiro, Oliver Vanden Eynde

Can tax regimes shape the incentives to engage in armed conflict? Indian mining royalties benefit the states but are set by the central government. India's Maoist belt is mineral rich, and states are responsible for counterinsurgency operations. We exploit the introduction of a 10% ad valorem tax on iron ore that increased royalty collections of the affected states by a factor of 10. We find that the royalty hike was followed by a significant intensification of violence in districts with important iron ore deposits. The royalty increase was also followed by an increase in illegal mining activity in iron mines.

税收制度能激励人们参与武装冲突吗?印度的采矿特许权使用费有利于邦政府，但由中央政府制定。印度毛派地区矿产丰富，各邦负责反叛乱行动。我们利用对铁矿石征收10%从价税的做法，将受影响国家的特许权使用费征收提高了10倍。我们发现，矿区使用费上调之后，拥有重要铁矿资源的地区的暴力事件显著加剧。特许权使用费增加后，铁矿的非法采矿活动也增加了。

 

16.Does Market Interaction Erode Moral Values?

市场互动会侵蚀道德价值观吗?

Björn Bartling, Ernst Fehr, Yagiz Özdemir

The widespread use of markets leads to unprecedented material well-being in many societies. We study whether market interaction, as a side effect, erodes moral values. In an influential paper, Falk and Szech (2013) provide experimental data that seem to suggest that “market interaction erodes moral values.” Although we replicate their main treatment effect, we show that additional treatments are necessary to corroborate their conclusion. These treatments reveal that playing repeatedly, and not market interaction, causes the erosion of moral values. Our paper thus shows that neither Falk and Szech's data nor our data support the claim that markets erode morals.

市场的广泛使用给许多社会带来了前所未有的物质福祉。我们研究市场互动作为一种副作用是否会侵蚀道德价值观。在一篇有影响力的论文中，Falk和Szech(2013)提供的实验数据似乎表明，“市场互动侵蚀了道德价值观”。虽然我们复制了他们的主要治疗效果，但我们表明，额外的治疗是必要的，以证实他们的结论。这些治疗方法表明，反复玩游戏，而不是与市场互动，会导致道德价值观的侵蚀。因此，我们的论文表明，Falk和Szech的数据和我们的数据都不支持市场侵蚀道德的说法。