【每天一篇经济学人】Social trends 社会趋势（2023年第58期）
文章来源：
《经济学人》Oct 28th 2023 期 Finance & economics 栏目 Social trends 社会趋势
视频总结：
疫情下新生活方式：隐士习惯悄悄改变我们的消费。
文章探讨了疫情期间的新消费趋势，重点关注了 "隐士习惯" 的兴起，以及社交消费的减少。在大流行期间，人们减少了在服务领域的支出，取而代之的是购买家居用品和各种物品。随着人们更多地在家中度过时间，商业和经济模式也正在适应这一变化，形成了全新的消费趋势。此篇文章强调了这一现象的影响，包括服务业的下降和家庭相关支出的增加，以及全球范围内的社交消费模式的变化。
这是一个耳熟能详的故事：在大流行期间，每个人都待在家里，除了在亚马逊上剁手购物外，几乎无事可做，结果他们堆满了购物车，购买了各种东西（或者用经济学的术语来说是“商品”）。新消费者：这其实是与以往不同的消费趋势，也就是说，发达国家的人们越来越愿意在各种服务上花钱。
关键点一：服务消费逆势下降
根据以往的趋势，《经济学人》估计，如果疫情没有发生，每年服务消费将减少6000亿美元。这意味着人们本可以享受更多的服务，但疫情改变了一切。
隐士：与娱乐和社交相关的支出出现了最大的下降，而更多的支出则花在家庭用品上，比如家具、厨房设备、衣服、食物和酒。这就是为什么我们现在谈论“隐士习惯”。这场流行病让我们对待家里的生活更为舒适，而这些隐士习惯似乎会长期存在。
关键点二：隐士习惯改变消费
例如，在封锁时间较长的日本，隐士习惯显而易见：商业用途的餐厅预订下降了大约50%。而在封锁时间较短的国家，如新西兰和韩国，支出模式更接近大流行前的水平。
轶事与数据：尽管似乎更难订餐厅，但这可能更多是因为供应不足，而不是外出就餐需求的激增。在酒店业工作的美国人数量远低于2019年。
拥有Olive Garden等连锁店的达顿餐厅最近表示，其客流量已经接近新冠疫情爆发前的水平，这显示了我们都变得更像隐士了。用于社交活动的支出已经减少，取而代之的是更孤立的追求，比如园艺、家庭烹饪、阅读杂志和照顾宠物。实际上，几乎每个人都认识一位在疫情期间领养了一只“新冠小狗”的人。
关键点三：社交消费减少，隐士生活崛起
这个新生活方式正在改变我们的消费习惯，我们更愿意在家中度过时间，进行各种家庭活动，而不是外出社交和消费服务。这意味着商业和经济模式也正在适应这一变化，从而形成了全新的消费趋势。
视频文本：
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In some ways covid-19 was a blip. After soaring in 2020, unemployment across the rich world quickly dropped to pre-pandemic lows. Countries re-attained their pre-covid GDP in short order. And yet, more than two years after lockdowns were lifted, at least one change is enduring: consumer habits across the rich world have shifted decisively, and perhaps permanently. Welcome to the age of the hermit.
从某些方面来说，新冠疫情只是个小插曲。发达国家的失业率在 2020 年飙升后迅速回落至疫情前的低点。各国GDP很快恢复到疫情前的水平。然而，疫情解封两年多后，至少有一个变化是持久的：发达国家的消费习惯已经发生了决定性的、或许是永久性的改变。欢迎来到隐士时代。
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Before covid, the share of consumer spending devoted to services was rising steadily. As societies became richer, they sought more luxury experiences, health care and financial planning. Then in 2020 spending on services, from hotel stays to hair cuts, collapsed. With people spending more time at home, demand for goods jumped, with a rush for computer equipment and exercise bikes.
在新冠疫情之前，消费者在服务方面的支出比例稳步上升。由于社会变得更加富裕，人们寻求更多的奢华体验、医疗保健和财务规划。然后到了 2020 年，酒店住宿、理发等服务支出大幅下降。由于呆在家里的时间越来越长，人们对商品的需求猛增，电脑设备和健身自行车等产品供不应求。
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Three years on, the share of spending devoted to services remains below its pre-covid level. Relative to its pre-covid trend, the decline is sharper still. Rich-world consumers are spending around $600bn a year less on services than you might have expected in 2019. In particular, people are less interested in leisure activities that take place outside the home, including hospitality and recreation. Money is being redirected to goods, ranging from durables like chairs and fridges, to things such as clothes, food and wine.
3年过去了，服务相关支出比例仍低于疫情前的水平。与新冠疫情前的趋势相比，下降幅度更大。发达国家消费者现在每年的服务相关支出比2019 年预期少了约 6000 亿美元。特别是，人们对户外休闲活动（包括酒店住宿和娱乐）不太感兴趣。人们的资金用于购买商品，包括椅子和冰箱等耐用品，以及衣物、食品和酒。
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In countries that spent less time in lockdown, hermit habits have not become ingrained. Elsewhere, though, the behaviour looks pathological. In the Czech Republic, which was whacked by covid, the services share is three percentage points below trend. America is not far off. Japan has witnessed a 50% decline in restaurant bookings for client entertainment and other business purposes. Pity the drunken salaryman staggering round Tokyo’s pleasure districts: he is an endangered species.
在封锁时间不长的国家，隐士习惯尚未根深蒂固。但在其他地方，这种行为看起来像是一种病态。捷克共和国曾遭受新冠疫情重创，服务业份额比正常水平低了三个百分点。美国也差不多。日本的客户娱乐和其他商业相关的餐厅预订量下降了 50%。醉醺醺的工薪族在东京的娱乐区踉踉跄跄地走来走去，真可怜：他们是濒危物种。
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At first glance, the figures are difficult to reconcile with the anecdotes. Isn’t it harder than ever to get a table at a restaurant? Yet the true source of the crowding is not sky-high demand, but constrained supply. These days fewer people want to work in hospitality—in America employment in the industry remains lower than in 2019. And pandemic disruption means many new hotels and restaurants that would have opened in 2020 and 2021 never did. The number of hotels in Britain, at around 10,000, has not grown since 2019.
乍一看，这些数据与趣闻轶事似乎不太一致。现在在餐厅里找一个座位不比以前更难了吗？然而，餐厅人满为患的真正原因并不是需求过高，而是供应紧张。如今，越来越少的人愿意从事酒店业——在美国，酒店业的就业人数仍然低于 2019 年。疫情中断意味着许多原计划在2020 年和 2021 年开业的新酒店和餐馆没开业。英国的酒店数量约为1万家，自 2019 年以来一直没有增长。
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Firms are noticing the $600bn shift. In a recent earnings call an executive at Darden Restaurants, which runs one of America’s finest restaurant chains, Olive Garden, noted that, relative to pre-covid times, “we’re probably in that 80% range in terms of traffic”. At Home Depot, which sells tools to improve homes, revenue is up by about 15% on 2019 in real terms. Goldman Sachs, a bank, tracks the share prices of companies that benefit when people stay at home (such as e-commerce firms) and those that thrive when people are out (such as airlines). Even today, the market looks favourably upon firms that serve stay-at-homers.
各公司都注意到了 6000 亿美元消费习惯的变化。在最近的一次财报电话会议上，美国著名连锁餐厅“橄榄园”的母公司“达登餐饮集团”的高管说：“我们的客流量恢复到疫情前水平的80% 左右。”家得宝公司销售改善家居环境的工具，它的实际营收与2019年相比增长了15%左右。高盛银行追踪了人们居家时受益的公司（例如电子商务公司）和人们外出时蓬勃发展的公司（例如航空公司）的股价。即使在今天，市场仍然看好为居家者提供服务的公司。
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Why has hermit behaviour endured? The first possible reason is that some tremulous folk remain afraid of infection, whether by covid or something else. In Britain, car use is in line with the pre-covid norm, whereas public-transport use is well down. People also seem less keen on up-close-and-personal services. In America spending on hairdressing and personal grooming is 20% below its pre-covid trend, while spending on cosmetics, perfumes and nail preparations is up by a quarter.
为什么“隐士”行为还在持续？第一个可能的原因是，一些胆小的人仍然害怕受到感染，无论是新冠病毒还是其他疾病。在英国，汽车使用量与新冠疫情前水平一致，但公共交通的使用量却大幅下降。人们似乎也不那么热衷于近距离的个人服务。在美国，个人美容美发的支出比新冠疫情前水平低了 20%，而化妆品、香水和美甲产品的支出却增长了1/4。
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The second reason relates to work patterns. Across the rich world people now work about one day a week at home, according to Cevat Giray Aksoy of King’s College London and colleagues. This cuts demand for services bought at the office, including lunches, and raises demand for do-it-yourself goods. Last year Italians spent 34% more on glassware, tableware and household utensils than in 2019.
第二个原因与工作模式有关。根据伦敦国王学院的塞瓦特·吉雷·阿克索伊及其同事的研究，在发达国家，人们现在每周大约有一天在家工作。这减少了在办公室购买的服务（包括午餐外卖）的需求，但增加了自制产品的需求。去年，意大利人在玻璃器皿、餐具和家庭用具上的支出比 2019 年增加了 34%。
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The third relates to values. Covid may have made people genuinely more hermit-like. According to official data from America, last year people slept 11 minutes more a day than in 2019. They also spent less on clubs that require membership and other social activities, and more on solitary pursuits, such as gardening and pets. Meanwhile, global online searches for “Patience”, a card game otherwise known as Solitaire, are running at about twice their pre-pandemic level. Covid’s biggest legacy, it seems, has been to pull people apart.
第三个与价值观有关。新冠疫情可能使人们更加愿意过隐居生活。根据美国官方数据，去年人们每天的睡眠时间比 2019 年多了 11 分钟。人们在会员俱乐部和其他社交活动上的花费也减少了，而在园艺和宠物等独处活动的花费增加了。与此同时，一款名为"挑战耐心"的纸牌游戏（又称"精灵纸牌"）的全球在线搜索量约为疫情前的2倍。看来，新冠疫情最大的遗产就是拉开了人与人之间的距离。
