Influenza-Cold case

2020 has been a year without a flu season in the southern hemisphere

经济学人9月刊

EVERY WINTER, from May to October, tens of thousands of Australians and New Zealanders are asked how they feel. More precisely, they are asked by their governments in weekly surveys if they have a cough or a fever. Although 2020 has been a difficult year in many ways for Aussies and Kiwis, it has not necessarily been bad for their physical health. This winter only around 0.4% of people in the two countries said they were suffering from flu-like symptoms, down by four-fifths compared with last year. Other countries in the southern hemisphere have reported similar slowdowns in the spread of influenza.

Aussie  n.  /ˈɒzi/  ( Oz·zie ) 澳大利亚人       Kiwi 新西兰人

The cause for this steep decline in infections is clear. Governments all around the world have enacted costly lockdowns to fight the novel coronavirus. In doing so, not only have countries in the southern hemisphere slowed the spread of covid-19, but they also appear inadvertently to have stopped the proliferation of another deadly disease: the flu.

enact  v. /ɪˈnækt/  

1. ( law 律 ) to pass a law 通过（法律）•legislation enacted by parliament 由议会通过的法律

2.扮演；担任…角色；演出 •scenes from history enacted by local residents 由当地居民参加演出的历史场面

3.be enacted [ VN ] ( formal ) to take place 发生；进行；举行

inadvertently  adv. /ˌɪnədˈvɜːtəntli/ by accident; without intending to 无意地；不经意地

proliferation  n. /prəˌlɪfəˈreɪʃn/   激增；涌现；增殖；大量的事物  • attempts to prevent cancer cell proliferation 防止癌细胞扩散的努力

Since 1952 the World Health Organisation (WHO) has tracked influenza in member countries, relying on local partner laboratories to report both the number and types of viruses they detect. In the first two weeks of August, the WHO processed nearly 200,000 influenza tests, and found just 46 were positive. In a typical year, the number would be closer to 3,500.

One might worry that because health-care systems are strained, the declines in reported flu cases reflect reduced testing capacity, rather than a genuine reduction in infections. Fortunately, this is not so. WHO data are readily available in six countries in the southern hemisphere: Australia, Argentina, South Africa, Paraguay, New Zealand and Chile. There the total number of influenza tests has fallen by just 20%, while the share of tests that have come up positive has plummeted to record lows.

strain /streɪn/  n. 张力；拉紧；负担；扭伤；血缘 vi. 拉紧；尽力 vt. 拉紧；滥用；滤去；竭力 n. （植物、动物的）品种；种类

strain at the ˈleash ( informal ) to want to do sth very much 急于；迫不及待 •Like all youngsters, he's straining at the leash to leave home. 跟所有年轻人一样，他也急于从家里出去。

strain every ˈnerve/ˈsinew (to do sth) ：( formal ) to try as hard as you can to do sth 竭尽全力（做某事）

Paraguay  /ˈpærəɡwaɪ/ n. 巴拉圭（南美洲一国名）

plummet  v. /ˈplʌmɪt/  [ V ] to fall suddenly and quickly from a high level or position 暴跌；速降 • Share prices plummeted to an all-time low. 股票价格暴跌到历史最低点。

Data from Australia tell a remarkable tale. From May to mid-August of 2015-19, an average of 86,000 Australians tested positive for the flu each year, and around 130 died of it. This winter the government has registered only 627 influenza infections and just a single death.

The reduction in flu cases helps explain at least one puzzle in covid-19 data: some countries have seen a smaller increase in overall mortality than their covid-19 deaths would suggest. For instance, Chile has recorded around 9,800 covid-19 deaths from June to August 25th, but an increase of only about 8,800 deaths overall compared with the same period in 2015-19. It is possible that Chile is undercounting how many of its residents have died. But the near elimination of the flu has helped too.

这段话的大意指的是：

流感的减少帮助解释新冠肺炎的数据：一些国家的总死亡人数似乎并未增加多少，并没有推测中由于新冠疫情导致的死亡人数剧增。例如，智利今年6月至8月25日一共记录了9800名新冠疫情死亡人数，但是与2015-19年同时期相比，只多了8800名死亡人数。有可能智利未统计全面，但流感的几乎减灭也帮助解释了数据。（其实up觉得死了8800多人已经够多了，我老家小镇人数不到5000人，差不多两个小镇消失了。）

Influenza cases may yet rise in the south both this year and next, since fewer people have developed immunities. Meanwhile, countries in the northern hemisphere should expect fewer flu cases since fewer will be imported from abroad, and most people are social distancing. Seasonal influenza kills an estimated 300,000-650,000 people annually. In a year filled with terrible news, a victory against the flu is a welcome respite.

welcome respite：喘息之机

respite n. /ˈrespaɪt/  

1.~ (from sth) a short break or escape from sth difficult or unpleasant 暂停；暂缓 •The drug brought a brief respite from the pain. 药物暂时缓解了疼痛。 •She continued to work without respite. 她连续工作，没有休息。

respite care (= temporary care arranged for old, mentally ill, etc. people so that the people who usually care for them can have a rest) USEAT break 暂缓性照料

2.a short delay allowed before sth difficult or unpleasant must be done 短暂的延缓；喘息 •His creditors agreed to give him a temporary respite. 他的债权人同意给他一个喘息的机会