外刊精读 | 78《经济学人》：经济学家认为圣诞应该送什么？ | 考研写作...

The inefficiencies of Christmas

圣诞节的低效率

Should you forget presents and give cash?

你应该忘记送礼物而送现金吗？

‘Tis the season to be jolly—and to feign delight at disappointing Christmas presents. The average British adult splurged around £550 ($667) on gifts in 2021, according to one survey. But a back-of-the-envelope calculation by Ian Stewart of Deloitte, a consultancy, suggests that the volumes of unwanted stuff in effect destroyed around £3bn of the £25bn value. Though many see Christmas as a time of generosity and cheer, others see waste. A small number study its inefficiencies.

这是一个快乐的季节，也是一个假装对令人失望的圣诞礼物表示喜欢的季节。根据一项调查，2021年英国成年人平均在礼物上花费约550英镑（667美元）。但咨询公司德勤的伊恩·斯图尔特的粗略计算表明，大量不需要的东西实际上浪费了250亿英镑价值中的约30亿英镑。尽管许多人认为圣诞节是慷慨和欢乐的时刻，但其他人认为这是一种浪费。少数人研究它的低效率。

In 1993 Joel Waldfogel of the University of Minnesota identified a “deadweight loss” when he studied the difference between the cost of seasonal gifts and how much their recipients valued them after they had accounted for exchanges and put sentimental value aside. Today he says that on average cash spent on another person yields around 85% of the benefit of cash they spend on themselves. Although gift-giving may make some people happy, it’s “a lousy way to allocate resources,” he says.

1993年，明尼苏达大学的乔尔·瓦尔德福格尔发现了一种“无谓损失”，他研究了季节性礼物的成本与接受者在考虑交换和情感价值后对礼物的估价之间的差异。他说，如今平均而言，花在别人身上的现金产生的收益约为他们花在自己身上的现金的85%。他说，虽然送礼物可能会让一些人开心，但这是“一种糟糕的资源分配方式”。

There are ways to reduce Christmas losses. One is the use of gift cards, which give recipients some choice. But Britons don’t seem to like them much. A survey of adults from Ipsos, a pollster, found that 43% of Americans, 40% of the French and only 29% of Britons were planning to give them for Christmas 2022. Making it easier to return unwanted gifts should help. Al Gerrie, chief executive officer of ZigZag, a returns platform, says that when a gift message or gift wrap is used in fashion retail (that is, for a present) return rates tend to be considerably higher.

但也有办法减少圣诞节的损失。一个是使用礼品卡，给收礼者一些选择。但是英国人似乎不太喜欢它们。民意调查机构益普索对成年人的调查发现，43%的美国人、40%的法国人和只有29%的英国人计划在2022年圣诞节送礼物。更容易退回不想要的礼物应该会有所帮助。退货平台ZigZag的首席执行官艾尔·格里表示，当礼品信息或礼品包装用于时尚零售（即礼物）时，退货率往往会高得多。

As e-commerce has expanded, so too have ways of sending stuff back. But returns are a headache for retailers. On average it costs between £5 and £10 to put a product back on the shelves, says Mr Gerrie, thanks to the shipping, inspecting and repackaging required. (In January, Father Christmas’s elves must conduct “sniff tests” to see if a garment has been worn.) Increasingly, retailers are charging shoppers to return goods. ZigZag’s data suggest the number of paid-for returns has more than doubled since last year, while the number of free returns has fallen. That, though, may mean more consumers are stuck with unwanted gifts.

随着电子商务的发展，寄回东西的方式也在发展。但是退货让零售商头疼。格里表示，由于需要运输、检验和重新包装，将一件产品重新放回货架的平均成本在5至10英镑之间。（一月份，圣诞老人的小精灵们必须进行“嗅觉测试”，看看衣服是否被穿过。）零售商越来越多地向购物者收取退货费用。ZigZag的数据显示，自去年以来，付费退货的数量增加了一倍多，而免费退货的数量却有所下降。然而，这可能意味着更多的消费者被不想要的礼物所困。

Another Christmas inefficiency for retailers is the fact that it comes but once a year. Gary Grant of The Entertainer, which sells toys, jokes that he would love it if festive sales were spread throughout the year rather than being crammed into the final quarter. He is understaffed, he says, during the holiday season, when he expands his workforce by 50%, and then overstaffed the rest of the year. Shipping companies, warehouse operators and sorting centres must also organise themselves to meet peak demand; that can mean unused capacity at quieter times of the year. Data from Metapack, a logistics software company, suggest that in December the volume of posted parcels is more than double the level in September.

对零售商来说，圣诞节的另一个低效率是一年只有一次。玩具销售公司The Entertainer的加里·格兰特开玩笑说，如果节日销售分散到全年，而不是挤在最后一个季度，他会很高兴。他说，在假期期间，他的员工人数不足，当时他的员工人数增加了50% ，然后在今年剩下的时间里人员过剩。航运公司、仓库运营商和分拣中心也必须组织起来，以满足高峰需求；这可能意味着在一年中的淡季，会有闲置的产能。物流软件公司Metapack的数据显示，12月份邮寄的包裹量是9月份的两倍多。

Over time, it does seem that consumers are spreading their spending a little more thinly across the year. In 1986 25% of the year’s spending on clothing was in November and December. In 2019 the share was 22%. Seasonality in retail spending, which includes restaurants, is also falling. Seasonal employment as a share of the total between October and December has been decreasing since 1997, according to the Office for National Statistics. A new study by Mr Waldfogel found that since 2000 growth in the American economy has been associated with a smaller seasonal bump in December’s retail sales.

随着时间推移，消费者似乎确实在一年中分散了他们的支出。1986年，一年中25%的服装支出是在11月和12月。2019年，这一份额为22%。包括餐馆在内的零售支出的季节性也在下降。根据英国国家统计局的数据，自1997年以来，10月至12月的季节性就业占总就业人数的比例一直在下降。瓦尔德福格尔先生的一项新研究发现，自2000年以来，美国经济的增长与12月份零售额较小的季节性增长有关。

While some dream of white Christmases, others may yearn for mandatory exchanges of cash, or even a mechanism to randomly allocate the celebrations evenly across months of the year. Much would be lost if such a system were adopted, not least the joy that can accompany the exchange of carefully (if badly) chosen presents. But creating a fresh batch of unintended consequences for economists to analyse might yield some happy returns.

虽然有些人梦想白色圣诞节（即下雪的圣诞节），但其他人可能渴望强制性的现金交换，甚至是在一年中的几个月随机分配庆祝活动的机制。如果采用这样的制度，将会失去很多东西，尤其是交换精心挑选的礼物（如果不是糟糕的）所带来的快乐。但创造一批新的意想不到的后果供经济学家分析，可能会带来一些令人满意的回报。

练习题

1. 试将下列句子翻译成英文

回收平台ZigZag的数据显示在1月份付费回收的数量是免费回收的两倍多。

参考译文：Data from ZigZag, a returns platform, suggest that in January the volume of paid-for returns is more than double the level of free returns.