Climate change and the Midwest

中西部的温度变化

Soaked and less skeptical

已被浸透，不必怀疑

HARDIN, ILLINOIS

伊利诺斯州，哈丁

Floods and storms are altering inland America’s attitude to climate change

洪水和风暴正在改变美国内陆地区对气候变化的态度

FOUR GENERATIONS of one family run Riverdock Restaurant in Hardin, a small town on a spit of wooded land between the swollen Illinois and Mississippi rivers. The matriarch is Sara Heffington, in red T-shirt and jeans. She says the Illinois river usually passes 400 feet (120 metres) from the long, ground-floor room where they serve biscuits and sausage gravy. Today water laps at the front door. She recalls a previous deluge, as they prepared to open in 1993. Back then, a levee broke and neck-high, muddy water submerged them. “That was a one-in-500-year flood,” she says.

一家四代人在哈丁经营着Riverdock餐厅。哈丁是一个小镇，坐落在广大的伊利诺斯州和密西西比河之间的一处林地上。女族长是萨拉·赫芬顿，穿着红色t恤和牛仔裤。她说，伊利诺斯河通常要横跨400英尺(120米)，从他们提供饼干和香肠肉汁的一楼长房间穿过。今天，水拍打着前门。她回忆起之前的一次洪水，当时他们正准备1993年开业。当时，一座堤坝决堤，齐颈高的浑水淹没了他们。“那是500年一遇的洪水，”她说。

词汇

Swollen/肿胀的，浮肿的；

Illinois/伊利诺斯州

Matriarch/女家长；女统治者

Biscuit/  饼干；小面包

gravy/肉汁

lap/重叠；轻拍

deluge/洪水；泛滥；暴雨

In years when lots of snow melts upstream or increasingly stormy spring rain overfills midwestern rivers, the Heffingtons get gravel from a nearby quarry, fill bags and build a defensive wall. At the moment an oozing white barrier again surrounds their restaurant as diesel-pumps spit defiant jets back towards the river.

多年来，当上游大量积雪融化，或者中西部河流被越来越多的猛烈的春雨弄得满溢时，赫芬顿一家就从附近的采石场获得碎石，填满袋子，筑起一道防御墙。与此同时，他们一家还用一个渗透型的白色屏障包围着他们的参观，靠着柴油泵机将渗入的水猛烈的冲击回河中。

词汇

Stormy/暴风雨的；猛烈的

Gravel/碎石；砂砾

Quarry/采石场

Oozing/渗漏；渗透；渗出

diesel-pump/柴油泵；

defiant/挑衅的；目中无人的

They just about keep nature at bay, even as a fast-moving torrent almost wets the roadway on Hardin’s green metal bridge. When that closed, 26 years ago, the town was all but cut off for five months. The Illinois is likely to crest again next week, at almost the same high level. “It’s starting to scare us,” admits Mrs Heffington.

尽管湍急的水流几乎浸湿了哈丁绿色金属桥上的路面，但它们几乎把大自然拒之门外。26年前，当这个小镇关闭时，它几乎与外界隔绝了5个月。伊利诺斯州水位高度下周很可能再次达到顶峰，几乎与之前一样高。“我们开始害怕了，”赫芬顿夫人承认。

词汇

Crest/到达绝顶；形成浪峰

Asked why a one-in-500-year flood is back so soon, she first blames a recent lack of dredging and then talks of “extraordinary rains up north”. She sees a long-term “cycle” as the climate changes, but “the Lord has a plan”, and she doubts people affect the weather much. The youngest waitress, Skylar Giberson, disagrees with her older relative. Denial won’t do, she says. Humans and carbon emissions are changing the climate permanently. Her plan? “We should just move.”

当被问及为何500年一遇的洪水这么快就又来袭时，她先是将原因归咎于近期疏浚工作的缺乏，然后又谈到“北方地区异常降雨”。她认为气候变化是一个长期的“循环”，但“上帝有一个计划”，她（这里应该是指上帝）怀疑人类对天气的影响有多大。最年轻的女服务员Skylar Giberson不同意她年长的亲戚。她说，否认是不行的。人类和碳排放正在永久性地改变气候。那么她的解决措施是什么?“我们应该搬家。”

词汇

Dredge/ 疏浚，挖掘；采捞

 

Ms Giberson, just out of high school, may be proved right. America has just notched up its wettest 12 months ever, and floods are worsening across the Midwest. In the past century annual precipitation has risen by 10% across the region, a faster increase than for America as a whole. The Great Lakes region heated up by an average of 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.6 Fahrenheit) in the 115 years to 2016, concluded scientists from the region in a report in March. That was also faster than the national trend.

刚刚高中毕业的吉伯森女士可能是对的。美国刚刚经历了有史以来最潮湿的12个月，中西部地区的洪水正在恶化。在过去的一个世纪里，该地区的年降水量增加了10%，比整个美国的增长速度都要快。来自五大湖地区的科学家在3月份的一份报告中得出结论，在截至2016年的115年里，五大湖地区平均升温0.9摄氏度(1.6华氏度)。这也超过了全国的趋势。

词汇

notch up/完成；创下；达到

 

Because warmer air holds more moisture (and can suddenly release it), precipitation will keep rising. A 30% increase in the region is possible this century if global carbon emissions go unchecked, according to the federal agencies who produced the National Climate Assessment (NCA) late last year. This warned that more winter and spring downpours will mean more sodden soil, leaching of nutrients and delays to farmers’ planting season.

因为温暖的空气含有更多的水分(并且可以突然释放)，降水将持续上升。美国国家气候评估(NCA)的联邦机构称，如果全球碳排放不受控制，本世纪该地区的碳排放量有可能增加30%。这警告说，更多的冬季和春季暴雨将意味着更多的浸透的土壤，营养物质的流失和农民种植季节的推迟。

词汇

Precipitation/降水

Downpour/倾盆大雨；注下

Leach/过滤，滤去；萃取

 

Robert Criss, a hydrogeologist at Washington University in St Louis, says rain bursts are most destructive and can “go crazy” in smaller river basins.

圣路易斯华盛顿大学的水文地质学家Robert Criss说，降雨爆发的破坏力最大，在较小的河流流域可能会“疯狂”。

词汇

Hydrogeologist/水文地质学家；水文地质工作者

But even huge rivers like the Mississippi can struggle with higher overall flows. Decades of building levees close to rivers has narrowed them, blocked flood plains and lifted water. No year has yet surpassed a huge flood in 1903, but he says the Mississippi in St Louis has reached historically high water marks in four of the past seven years.

但是，即使是像密西西比河这样的大河，也可能与日渐变高的总流量作斗争。数十年来，在河流附近修建的堤坝使河流变窄，阻塞了泛滥平原，抬高了水位。没有哪一年的洪水超过1903年的大洪水，但是他说，圣路易斯的密西西比河在过去7年中有4年达到了历史最高水位。

词汇

Levee/堤坝（码头）

 

“Rivers are being constrained like never before,” he says. The Missouri river, for example, is on average half the width of its former natural state. Narrowed channels plus rising rainfall make sudden collapses of levees more likely, such as the one that wrecked the Riverdock Restaurant in 1993, or another that struck part of Davenport, an Iowan city on the Mississippi, early in May this year. Sudden floods can “tear asphalt off roads, strip top soil away, smash grain silos”, making them more destructive than gradual ones.

“河流受到前所未有的限制，”他说。例如，密苏里河的平均宽度是以前自然状态的一半。狭窄的河道加上不断上升的降雨，使得堤坝更有可能突然垮塌，比如1993年摧毁Riverdock餐厅的那次，或者今年5月初袭击密西西比州爱荷华州达文波特市部分地区的那次。突如其来的洪水可以“撕裂道路上的沥青，剥离表层土壤，粉碎粮仓”，使它们比渐进式洪水更具破坏性。

词汇

Asphalt/沥青；柏油

Silo/筒仓

 

As waters rise, politicians across the Midwest are starting to speak more about climate change. In part that is because several Democrats took over governors’ mansions after elections last year. By late April 24 governors, including those of industry-heavy places like Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, had joined an alliance of states formed in 2017 to combat climate change. Members vow to meet emissions targets set in the Paris climate accord, defying President Donald Trump’s promise to pull America out of it.

随着水位上涨，中西部的政客们开始更多地谈论气候变化。部分原因是一些民主党人在去年选举后接管了州长官邸。到4月24日晚些时候，包括伊利诺伊州、密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州等工业重镇在内的州长们已经加入了一个由各州组成的联盟，该联盟成立于2017年，旨在应对气候变化。成员们誓言要实现巴黎气候协议中设定的排放目标，无视美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)让美国退出该协议的承诺。

词汇

Mansion/大厦；宅邸

 

Tony Evers, Wisconsin’s Democratic governor, for example, says he has “brought science back” to his state after eight years of “climate-change deniers” under his Republican predecessor, Scott Walker. He did so because he worries about the “amount of water that’s been dumped on the state, as the crazy weather happenings continue. We’re having hundred-year floods every couple of years.” He has also beefed up the state’s once-neglected environmental agency. Illinois Democratic governor, J.B. Pritzker, declared in January that “climate change is real” and that the state’s emissions would fall by at least 26% (compared with 2005) by 2025.

例如，威斯康星州民主党州长托尼•埃弗斯(Tony Evers)表示，在他的共和党前任斯科特•沃克(Scott Walker)的领导下，威斯康星州“否认气候变化”长达8年。他这么做是因为他担心“随着疯狂天气的继续，大量的水被倾倒在这个州。”我们每隔几年就会遭遇百年一遇的洪水。他还加强了该州一度被忽视的环境部门（的管制）。伊利诺伊州民主党州长j·b·普利兹克(J.B. Pritzker)在1月份宣布“气候变化是真实存在的”，到2025年，该州的（碳）排放量将(与2005年相比)下降至少26%。

 

Democrats are also responding to voters who tell pollsters they care more about the subject than ever. Several aspiring presidential candidates support some form of a “green new deal”. Jay Inslee, Washington’s governor, is basing his presidential run on the issue. Pete Buttigieg, from Indiana, says “climate change is happening in the Midwest now, it is not theoretical”. He says even Catholic conservatives in Indiana warmed to the topic after a papal encyclical on the environment in 2015.

民主党人也在回应那些告诉民调人员他们比以往任何时候都更关心这个问题的选民。一些有抱负的总统候选人支持某种形式的“绿色新政”。华盛顿州长杰伊•英斯利(Jay Inslee)的总统竞选就基于这个问题。来自印第安纳州的Pete Buttigieg说:“气候变化现在正在中西部发生，这不是理论上的。”他说，在2015年教皇就环境问题发表通谕后，甚至印第安纳州的天主教保守派人士也对这个话题产生了兴趣。

词汇

Pollster/民意测验专家

Conservative/保守党，保守派

Papal/教宗的；罗马教皇的

Encyclical/通谕的；传阅的

Mr Trump remains as hostile as ever. The New York Times reports that his administration has told scientists not to include worst-case scenarios of climate change in the next NCA, due before 2022. Some were told not to make any forecasts for changes beyond 2040, when the biggest disruption is likeliest. Yet ever more voters can see what is happening first-hand.

特朗普一如既往地充满敌意。《纽约时报》报道称，他的政府已经告诉科学家们，在2022年之前的下一届NCA中，不要包括气候变化的最坏情况。一些人被告知，不要对2040年后的变化做出任何预测，因为2040年最有可能发生最严重的破坏。然而，越来越多的选民能够亲眼目睹正在发生的一切。

词汇

Scenario/方案；情节；剧本；设想

Older polling, by Pew, had suggested that coast-dwellers were more alarmed by climate change than those living 300 miles or more inland. But inlanders’ views seem to be shifting, too. A survey published this year by the Energy Policy Institute, part of the University of Chicago, found that 70% of Americans believe climate change is real. Nearly half are also more persuaded by warnings from climate scientists than they were five years earlier.

皮尤中心的一项较早的民意调查显示，沿海居民比居住在300英里或以上内陆地区的居民更容易受到气候变化的影响。但内地人的观点似乎也在转变。芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)下属的能源政策研究所(Energy Policy Institute)今年发布的一项调查发现，70%的美国人相信气候变化是真实存在的。与五年前相比，近一半的人更相信气候科学家的警告。

词汇

dweller/居民，居住者

 

Many said that witnessing extreme weather events—like the tornadoes, storms and floods battering the Midwest —did most to form their views. Michael Greenstone, who runs the institute, says the Midwest is already affected by “hotter summers, and it is more challenging for agriculture”. The region’s farmers are already at the sharp end of change.

许多人说，目睹龙卷风、暴风雨和洪水等极端天气事件对形成他们的观点影响最大。该研究所的负责人迈克尔•格林斯通(Michael Greenstone)表示，中西部地区已经受到“更炎热夏季的影响，农业面临的挑战也更大”。这一地区的农民已经处在巨变的风口浪尖。

词汇

Tornado/龙卷风

Mr Greenstone’s current research, not yet published, points to spikes in summer temperature that could threaten the viability of the region’s two staple crops, corn and soyabeans, possibly even before mid-century. Unless geneticists can develop heat-resistant strains, planting will march steadily northwards. Other researchers, at Indiana University, warned late last year that more frequent summer droughts, plus the spread of pests in warmer winters, also threaten agricultural productivity across the Midwest. One summer drought, in 2012, cost the region an estimated $30bn.

格林斯通目前尚未发表的研究指出，夏季气温的飙升可能会威胁到该地区两种主要农作物——玉米和大豆的生存能力，甚至可能在本世纪中叶之前就会出现这种情况。除非遗传学家能培育出耐热品种，否则种植将稳步向北推进。印第安纳大学(Indiana University)的其他研究人员去年年底警告称，夏季更频繁的干旱，加上暖冬害虫的蔓延，也威胁着整个中西部的农业生产率。2012年夏季的一场干旱估计给该地区造成了300亿美元的损失。

词汇

Spike/这里有瞬间增加的意思

Staple/主要产品

Soyabean/大豆

Down by the river, there are some compensations. At Riverdock Mrs Heffington says a few tourists who come to gawp at the floods stop for a meal. Downriver at Alton, high-flood marks adorn white grain silos opposite the tourist centre. Molly Price, who runs it, says the floods at least provide a lively topic of conversation. “And then everyone talks about climate change.”

在滚滚河水背后，暗藏着一种独特的补偿。在Riverdock，赫芬顿夫人说，一些来这里观看洪水的游客停下来吃饭。在下游的奥尔顿，高洪水标志装饰着白色的谷物仓对面的旅游中心。莫利·普赖斯经营着这家公司，她说洪水至少提供了一个生动的话题。“然后每个人都在谈论气候变化。”

词汇

Adorn/装饰