【TED演讲稿】远古时期的碳如何威胁到地球上的每个人

TED演讲者：Sue Natali / 苏·纳塔利

演讲标题：How ancient Arctic carbon threatens everyone on the planet / 远古时期的碳如何威胁到地球上的每个人

内容概要：What will happen to the planet if climate change melts what's left of Arctic permafrost? Shedding light on this overlooked threat, Arctic geologist Sue Natali reveals the true danger of heating up the iciest place on the planet: the release of ancient carbon that will dramatically worsen our climate problems. In this urgent talk, she introduces a new initiative, Permafrost Pathways, and their work to measure permafrost carbon emissions, fuse Indigenous solutions with modern technologies and protect the rights of Arctic residents. (This ambitious plan is a part of the Audacious Project, TED's initiative to inspire and fund global change.)

如果气候变化融化了北极剩余的永久冻土，地球将会发生什么？为了揭示这个被忽视的威胁，北极地质学家苏·纳塔利揭示了地球上最冷的地方变热所带来的危险：远古碳的释放会使气候问题更加严峻。在这一紧迫问题演说中，她介绍了一个新方案，“永久冻土行动计划”，并叙述了她们测量永久冻土碳排放，将土着解决方案与现代技术相结合，保护北极居民的权利的工作。（这一宏大的计划是Audacious项目的组成部分，是TED鼓励并资助全球变革的倡议。）

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【1】So whenever I tell people I'm an Arctic scientist, the first thing that they always ask me is: How cold is it up there?

每当我说我是研究 北极地区的科学家时, 人们一开口就会问我:

【2】And yeah, the Arctic can get pretty cold.

确实,北极很冷。

【3】Trust me when I tell you that working outside at -40 degrees is really, really challenging.

我不得不说, 在零下四十度的室外工作 确实是艰巨的挑战。

【4】But in the summer of 2019, it was anything but cold.

但在2019年的夏季, 北极地区一点也不冷。

【5】So that summer I was working with my research team in Alaska's Yukon Kuskokwim Delta on the traditional lands of the Yup'ik and Cup'ik people.

那个夏天我和我的研究团队在阿拉斯加育空地区的 卡斯克奎姆河三角洲从事研究。 那里曾是尤皮克人（Yup’ik） 和库普克人（Cup’ik）的地盘。

【6】And we were up there hauling hundreds of pounds of equipment across the tundra in the middle of a record-breaking heatwave.

当我们携带着数百磅重的仪器 穿行在那里的苔原地带时, 我们遇到了空前的热浪。

【7】It was 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

气温达到90华氏度 （约32.2摄氏度）。

【8】There was no breeze, nowhere to go for a shade and seemingly endless miles of tundra as far as my eyes could see.

那里没有风, 也没有任何荫蔽之处, 在我视野里的 是一望无际的苔原。

【9】To make matters worse, the land had drastically changed since we had been here just one year before.

更糟的是, 我们一年前才来过这里, 如今大地已经有了巨大变化。

【10】The ground was sinking and it was cracking.

地面在沉降和破裂。

【11】In places, it was literally collapsing beneath my feet.

在有些地方, 我脚下的土地甚至在崩解。

【12】I've been working in the Arctic for more than a decade, and I had never seen changes happening this rapidly ever before.

我在北极区域研究超过十年, 我以前从未见过如此迅速的改变。

【13】The changes we saw were remarkable, and they were also really concerning.

这些改变十分异常, 也着实令人忧心。

【14】But we were there to measure changes that we couldn't see.

但我们去那里是为了测量 我们无法感知的改变。

【15】We were there to fill a major gap in our understanding of how the changing Arctic is impacting the Earth's climate.

我们要填补我们 认知上的不足, 了解北极的改变 对地球气候的影响。

【16】So we were installing what's called an "eddy covariance tower,"

所以我们安装了一个被称为 “涡度协方差塔”的装置,

【17】which is a series of instruments that measures the exchange of greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide and methane, between the land and the atmosphere.

这种装置由多种仪器构成, 用于测量地面与大气 温室气体的交换, 例如二氧化碳和甲烷。

【18】It's essentially like measuring the Earth's breath.

这就像是在测量地球的呼吸。

【19】And so the reason the land around us was collapsing is because the once permanently frozen ground called permafrost was starting to thaw.

我们周围的土地之所以崩塌 是因为曾经的永久冻土, 即长期冰冻的土地, 正在不断融化。

【20】And once it thaws, that collapsing ground can drastically alter the vast expanse of the Arctic's tundra and boreal forest, and it can also threaten the homes and lifeways of Arctic residents.

一旦永久冻土开始融化, 坍塌的土地会彻底改变 北极地区大片的 苔原和北部针叶林, 这也威胁着北极地区居民的 家园和生活方式。

【21】Just imagine if the ground beneath your home suddenly started to sink.

试着想象你家下面的土地 突然开始下沉。

【22】That's what's happening across the Arctic.

这就是北极地区 正在经历的事情。

【23】But thawing permafrost also threatens everyone on the planet because it stores a massive amount of ancient frozen carbon.

永久冻土的融化 也威胁着地球上的每个人, 因为永久冻土封存着 大量被冰封的远古碳。

【24】And when that carbon thaws, it can be released into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases, leading to more warming and more thaw.

当冰封的碳融化时, 它作为温室气体 释放到大气中, 促使气候更加温暖 和更多永久冻土融化。

【25】So let me place the magnitude of this problem in perspective for you.

让我带你们正确认识 这个问题的严重性。

【26】By the end of this century, greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost may be on par with some of the world's leading greenhouse-gas-emitting nations,

在本世纪末, 由永久冻土融化 释放的温室气体 会与一些主要国家的 温室气体排放量相当,

【27】perhaps as large as or larger than emissions from the United States, the second-largest greenhouse-gas-emitting country in the world.

或许和美国的排放量相当, 也许更多, 美国目前是世界第二大 温室气体排放国。

【28】And you know, I want to point out, this is not a new phenomena.

我想强调的是, 这不是一个新现象。

【29】Arctic residents and scientists have been observing permafrost thaw now for decades.

北极地区的居民和科学家们 已经观测了数十年的永久冻土融化。

【30】But the scale of the research hasn't been sufficient to meet this enormous challenge.

但他们的研究规模还不足以 应对这一巨大挑战。

【31】Because no one country is directly responsible for permafrost thaw, no single nation has taken responsibility for fully monitoring and tracking its impact across the Arctic.

因为没有国家对永久冻土融化 负有直接责任, 没有哪个国家能够 独自承担测量和追踪 永久冻土融化 对北极的影响的责任。

【32】And this is not a case where ignorance is bliss, because what doesn't get measured doesn't get accounted for.

这里根本不存在 无知是福这一说法, 因为我们不会考虑 我们没有测量的数据。

【33】Because we can't put a precise number on permafrost emissions, policymakers are essentially excluding them, setting global emissions targets that are wholly insufficient to protect us from catastrophic climate change.

因为我们无法对冻土碳排放 进行准确测量, 政策制定者就直接忽略它, 制定无法让我们免于灾难性 气候变化的目标。

【34】Ignoring permafrost is essentially like leaving a major greenhouse-gas-emitting country, like the United States, out of global climate negotiations, which is not a good idea.

忽视永久冻土就像遗漏了 一个温室气体排放大国, 就像美国对全球气候磋商 置之不理, 这并不明智。

【35】What we need to know is where permafrost is thawing across the Arctic and how fast, what that means in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and how that will impact our climate in 10, 50 or 100 years from now.

我们需要知道 北极哪里的永久冻土正在融化 和正以多快的速度融化, 这两个问题对温室气体排放 有什么影响 及对未来10、50、100年的气候 产生什么影响。

【36】Answering these questions requires a massive and integrated effort at a scale that matches the enormity of this problem.

回答这一问题需要进行 大规模、系统性的工作, 与这一问题的严重性相匹配。

【37】Thankfully, we have a plan.

幸运的是, 我们有一个方案。

【38】Through an ambitious new initiative called Permafrost Pathways, we've formed a coalition of Arctic residents and scientists,

通过一个宏大的新方案 “永久冻土行动计划”, 我们与北极地区的居民、 科学家、当地的有识之士

【39】Indigenous knowledge-holders and Arctic and climate policy influencers to tackle this problem with the urgency it deserves.

以及在北极和气候政策议题上 有影响力的人物 形成联盟来解决这一急迫问题。

【40】Recognizing that we cannot continue on our current climate trajectory, we've brought this team together to think big and to act boldly and to work across boundaries to take us on a new pathway forward.

我们意识到我们 不能维持现有的气候趋势。 我们带领这个团队一起 开阔思维、大胆行动, 跨越界限合作, 以使我们在新的道路上前进。

【41】So to get started, the first thing that we need to do is to actually measure greenhouse gas emissions across the entire Arctic.

开始时, 我们的首要任务是 准确测量整个北极地区 温室气体的排放。

【42】Currently there are only a handful of monitoring towers across the Arctic that run year round and that measure both important greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane.

北极地区当前全年工作的 测量塔屈指可数, 它们测量两种重要的温室气体: 二氧化碳和甲烷。

【43】So we're working with a team of international scientific experts to strategically identify and fill these monitoring gaps by installing new equipment across the Arctic in remote locations where monitoring currently doesn't exist.

所以我们与多国科学家合作, 有策略地识别和填补 这些测量空白区域, 在北极未被测量的偏远地区 安装新型设备。

【44】We believe that by installing just 10 new monitoring sites, we can drastically improve our estimates of permafrost emissions, which will remove a major barrier to their incorporation into the global climate policy.

我们相信 10 个 新的测量地点 能大幅度提升我们估测 冻土释放温室气体量的准确性, 这将消除将其纳入 全球气候政策范畴的障碍。

【45】And we're coupling this on-the-ground monitoring with high-resolution satellite observations and advanced computer modeling so that we can track the changing Arctic in near real-time and accurately project permafrost emissions into the future.

我们把地面测量 与高清卫星观测相结合 并使用先进的计算机建模, 因而我们能接近实时地 追踪北极的变化 并准确预测永久冻土 在未来的排放量。

【46】But state-of-the-art science just isn't enough.

不过现有的科学 还有待提高。

【47】We need to make sure that permafrost emissions are counted when setting global emissions targets, because each year that we fail to account for permafrost is another year that we become unwittingly locked-in to more severe climate warming.

我们要确保永久冻土的释放量 被计入全球排放目标中, 因为每年未查明的 永久冻土释放量 都会使我们无意识地在下一年 陷入更加严重的气候变暖困境。

【48】So we're working with leading policy experts to bring this new knowledge to the table with the decision-makers at the highest level to make sure that global climate policy is accounting for permafrost and aiming for the right targets.

所以我们与主要政策制定专家 一起将这些知识 传递给高层决策者, 以确保全球气候政策 将永久冻土考虑在内 并设定正确的目标。

【49】But the truth is, even with the most ambitious climate action, some permafrost is going to thaw -- that's already happening.

然而事实是, 即使有宏大的气候方案 永久冻土也会融化 它正在融化。

【50】Right now across the Arctic, people are having to make extremely difficult decisions about where and how to live in order to protect themselves and their families from the hazards of climate change.

如今北极地区的人们 不得不作出最艰难的决定, 关于在哪里生活, 怎样生活, 以避免他们和家人 受到气候变化带来的伤害。

【51】So we're working with our team members and our partners who live on permafrost to bring these monitoring and modeling tools to assess the current and future impacts of permafrost thaw on Arctic communities, and to co-create adaptation plans that protect and respect the health, well-being and human rights of Arctic residents.

我们与我们的团队成员 和住在永久冻土上的 伙伴们合作, 引入这些测量 和建模工具 来评估当前和未来 永久冻土融化对北极社区的影响, 并共同创造出一个 可取的方案 以维护北极地区居民的 健康、福祉和人权。

【52】These are the gaps we plan to fill.

这是我们要填补的空缺。

【53】Painting a picture of the Arctic that we have never been able to see before, and recognizing that ultimately, the climate crisis is a human rights crisis, and it's one that's already underway.

描绘出我们从未见过的 北极的图景, 并认识到气候危机 说到底是人权危机, 并且这是正在发生的危机。

【54】But through these actions that we take now, we can greatly reduce future harm and take us on a more just and equitable journey.

通过我们采取的措施, 我们极大地减少了 未来的危害, 我们正踏上更加公正的旅程。

【55】Thank you.

谢谢。