【龙腾网】毁灭性大火考验澳大利亚经济模式

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原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：骑着毛驴到处走 转载请注明出处

Australia’s remarkable prosperity rests on a balancing act. It mines coal, natural gas and iron ore from a vulnerable landscape. It takes ever more money from China while allied with the American military.

澳大利亚取得的繁荣成就靠的是一种外交平衡的维持。
它在自己环境脆弱的土地上开采煤炭、天然气和铁矿石。
它在与美国军事结盟的同时，从中国获得越来越多的资金。

With devastating wildfires ripping through its countryside, that balance may become increasingly difficult to maintain.

随着毁灭性的野火肆虐乡间，这种平衡可能越来越难以维继。

Australia’s leaders face growing pressure to address climate change, as scientists blame the country’s increasingly hot and dry conditions for the disastrous blazes. That would mean reckoning with Australia’s dependence on providing China and other countries with coal.

澳大利亚领导人正面临越来越大的压力，他们必须尽快拿出应对气候变化的对策，因为科学家们将这场灾难性的大火归咎于澳大利亚日益炎热和干燥的自然环境。
这就意味着澳大利亚要反思自己依赖于向中国和其他国家供应煤炭的经济模式。

The fossil fuel, used to fire many of the world’s power plants and steel mills, is one of Australia’s biggest exports. Coal is also one of the biggest sources of climate change gases, and produces most of Australia’s own electricity.

化石燃料是澳大利亚最大的出口品之一，世界上许多发电厂和钢铁厂都使用这种燃料。煤炭也是导致气候变化的最大因素之一，澳大利亚本国的大部分电力也来自煤炭。

Prime Minister Scott Morrison, a conservative leader and political ally of President Trump, came to power in part by defending the mining industry. He sees action on global warming as a substantial threat to an industry that directly employs 250,000 Australians and contributes to the jobs of many more.

澳大利亚保守派领袖、特朗普总统的政治盟友、澳大利亚总理斯科特·莫里森上台的部分原因是对采矿业的支持。他认为，采矿业为25万澳大利亚人提供了工作，而以全球变暖为名限制采矿业，势必会损害澳大利亚的工作机会。

The Australian mining and energy industries have long benefited from China’s spectacular growth. China accounts for almost two-fifths of Australia’s exports. A vast fleet of vessels carries coal from northeastern Australia and iron ore and liquefied natural gas from northwestern Australia to Chinese ports.

长期以来，澳大利亚的采矿和能源行业一直受益于中国经济的惊人增长。中国几乎占到澳大利亚出口的近五分之二。庞大的船队将澳大利亚东北部的煤炭以及西北部的铁矿石和液化天然气运往中国港口。

Coal narrowly trails iron ore as Australia’s biggest export, with liquefied natural gas close behind. Australia’s combined exports of the three natural resources work out to nearly 7,300 Australian dollars, or almost $5,000, a year for every adult and child in the country, giving broad political influence to the mining industry.

在澳大利亚最大的出口商品当中，煤炭紧随铁矿石列第二，之后就是液化天然气。这三种自然资源的出口合计每年为澳大利亚每个成年人和儿童带来近7300澳元（约合5000美元）的收入，所以采矿业具有广泛的政治影响。

Still, the wildfires are only one factor forcing many Australians to question how long this economic formula will last.

不过，森林大火迫使许多澳大利亚人质疑这种经济模式的可持续性。

Some worry that Australia has become too dependent on China at a time when the United States is pressuring allies to keep some distance. On the military front, China has become increasingly assertive in the Pacific Ocean in the region. China has built the world’s largest navy. It has established close relations with Australia’s neighbors in the South Pacific. And it has constructed air bases on an archipelago of artificial islands across the South China Sea.

一些人还担心，在美国向盟国施压，要求与中国保持一定距离的同时，澳大利亚正变得过于依赖中国。在军事方面，中国在太平洋地区越来越自信。中国已经建立了世界上最大的海军（译者注：什么时候？我们中国人怎么不知道？）。它与澳大利亚的南太平洋邻国建立了密切的关系。它在横跨南海的一系列人工岛屿上建起了空军基地。

At home, Australian voters have also become increasingly concerned about the growing influence of Chinese money in the country’s political scene.

在国内，澳大利亚选民也越来越关注中国资本在本国政治舞台上日益增长的影响力。

“Our economy is vitally dependent on China, and yet our security ties are with the U.S., and our economy is vitally dependent on fossil fuels, and yet our landscape is relatively exposed to climate change,” Chris Richardson, the chief Australia economist at Deloitte, said.

首席澳大利亚经济学家克里斯·理查森表示：“我们的经济非常依赖中国，而我们的安全与美国紧紧相连，我们的经济非常依赖化石燃料，而我们的自然却受气候变化的影响。”

Shifting the world’s 14th-largest economy would be no easy task, no matter how much the government might do.

无论澳大利亚政府做多少努力，改变作为世界第14大经济体的本国绝非易事。

Australia not only burns coal to generate most of its own electricity but also exports nearly $40 billion a year of the fuel, mainly to Japan, China, India, South Korea and Taiwan. Though China is by far Australia’s largest trading partner, Japan has long been its largest coal customer.

澳大利亚本国大部分电力要依靠燃烧煤炭，而且每年还出口近400亿美元的燃料，主要销往日本、中国、印度、韩国和台湾。中国到目前为止是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴，但日本一直是其最大的煤炭消费国。

Opinion surveys in Australia over the years have found sizable majorities who favor action on climate change. But as in the United States with the Electoral College, Australia’s political system gives greater influence to some regions of the country than to others. One beneficiary is the state of Queensland, in the country’s northeast.

多年来，在澳大利亚进行的民意调查发现，绝大多数人赞成采取行动应对气候变化。但是，就像设有选举团制度的美国一样，澳大利亚的政治制度让该国某些地区拥有比其他地区更大的影响力。采矿业受益者之一是澳大利亚东北部的昆士兰州。

Queensland is Australia’s main coal-producing state. It played a key role when Mr. Morrison led his center-right coalition to an unexpected election victory in May.

昆士兰是澳大利亚的主要产煤州。澳大利亚总理莫里森带领他的中右翼联盟在5月意外胜选，昆士兰州起到的作用至关重要。

The tourism industry has not been broadly hit by the wildfires so far because conflagrations have mainly occurred in smaller communities. But the smoke that has at times clogged the air over Sydney and Melbourne could take a toll. The fires could have a much broader economic effect if they damage public confidence and make Australians more cautious about spending money, Mr. Richardson said.

到目前为止，大火给旅游业的冲击并不严重，因为火灾主要发生在较小的地区。但是烟雾有时会污染悉尼和墨尔本的空气，这可能会造成损失。
经济学家理查森说，如果大火破坏公众信心并使澳大利亚人更加谨慎消费，那么大火可能会产生更广泛的经济影响。

At some favorite tourist sites, people who depend on the natural beauty of the land worry that the fires may threaten their way of life.

在一些最受欢迎的旅游景点，景点的工作人员担心大火会威胁到他们的生活方式。

Jervis Bay, a resort town between Sydney and Canberra on Australia’s southeastern coast, usually boasts beaches of soft white sand and seawater of crystalline clarity. On a recent visit, smoke shrouded the landscape, and the water was murky.

杰维斯湾，是位于澳大利亚东南海岸悉尼和堪培拉之间的度假胜地，是一个铺满白色沙滩和清澈海水的地方。但在最近的一次游客造访中，那里烟雾笼罩，水质浑浊。

Business owners with fridges full for the summer season worry about the future.

为夏天的旺季准备了大量冷藏物资的商家对未来充满忧虑。

Niel Badenhorst, a cafe owner, said that since the blazes broke out after Christmas, sales were down a quarter. The period around Christmas and January is normally peak season, he said.

咖啡馆老板尼尔·巴登霍斯特说，由于圣诞节后大火爆发，店里销量下降了四分之一。他说，圣诞节到一月左右的这段时间通常是旺季。

“I was worried if the power goes I would have high losses,” Mr. Badenhorst said, adding that the cafe’s refrigerators were full of food that would spoil if extensive nearby power failures spread to his community and persisted.

巴登霍斯特说：“我担心万一断电，这将会给我造成高额损失。”他还说，咖啡馆的冰箱里装满了食物，如果附近的大量停电事故蔓延到他的社区且迟迟得不到修理，食物会变质的。

“I hope it will open some people’s eyes,” he said of the government’s inaction on climate change. He mentioned wind turbines that he recently saw lined up along Germany’s coast, and asked, “Why can’t we do that in Australia?”

“我希望这能让一些人好好看看，”他谈到政府对气候变化不作为时说。他提到最近在德国沿海见到的排成一排的风力发电装置，并问：“为什么澳大利亚不能这样做？”

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原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：骑着毛驴到处走 转载请注明出处

Paul
Mining contributes 6.5% to 8.5% of Australia''s GDP, depending on the data source. It''s entirely impractical for coal and associated industries to be shut down. Never mind their customers will just source lower grade coal from other countries.
There is also a general view that Australia is lagging in renewable development. This is false. We have the highest density of wind and solar of any country (we don''t have much water for hydro and nuclear is banned). The problem like most countries is that 24/7 renewable power is still technically and economically unfeasible at this point. No new coal power plants have been constructed in Australia for decades and most existing ones only have short lives left.
Climate change is global, requiring practical and economically sustainable global efforts.

WHM
Australia might make some contribution by switching part of their own coal dominated energy sector to renewables but dont expect them to be able to decrease exports of coal.
Helping China and India with renewables could help greatly.

澳大利亚可能会做出一些行动，比如将本国以煤炭为主的能源经济部分转向可再生能源，但不要指望他们能够减少煤炭出口。
也许我们可以利用可再生能源技术帮助中国和印度。