经济学顶刊American Economic Review 2023年第2期

American Economic Review 2023年第2期

Vol. 113 No. 2 February 2023

 

 

——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独

 

 

1.Technological Change and the Consequences of Job Loss

技术变革和失业的后果

J. Carter Braxton

Bledi Taska

We examine the role of technological change in explaining the large and persistent decline in earnings following job loss. Using detailed skill requirements from the near universe of online vacancies, we estimate technological change by occupation and find that technological change accounts for 45 percent of the decline in earnings after job loss. Technological change lowers earnings after job loss by requiring workers to have new skills to perform newly created jobs in their prior occupation. When workers lack the required skills, they move to occupations where their skills are still employable but are paid a lower wage.

我们考察了技术变革在解释失业后收入持续大幅下降中的作用。利用在线职位空缺的详细技能要求，我们按职业估计了技术变革，发现技术变革占失业后收入下降的45%。技术变革降低了失业后的收入，因为它要求工人拥有新技能，才能在之前的职业中从事新创造的工作。当工人缺乏所需的技能时，他们就会跳槽到他们的技能仍然可以就业但工资较低的职业。

 

 

2.Trade with Correlation

贸易关联

Nelson Lind

Natalia Ramondo

We develop a trade model with correlation in productivity across countries. The model spans the full class of generalized extreme value import demand systems and implies that countries with relatively dissimilar technology gain more from trade. In the context of a multisector trade model, we provide a tractable and flexible estimation procedure for correlation based on compressing highly disaggregate sectoral data into a few latent factors related to technology classes. We estimate significant heterogeneity in correlation across sectors and countries, which leads to quantitative predictions that are significantly different from estimates of models assuming independent productivity across sectors or countries.

我们开发了一个各国生产率具有关联性的贸易模型。该模型涵盖了广义极端价值进口需求系统的全部类别，并暗示技术相对不同的国家从贸易中获得更多。在多部门贸易模型的背景下，我们提供了一个易于处理和灵活的相关性估计程序，其基础是将高度分解的部门数据压缩为与技术类别相关的几个潜在因素。我们估计不同部门和国家之间的相关性存在显著异质性，这导致定量预测与假设不同部门或国家之间生产率独立的模型的估计存在显著差异。

 

 

3.Constrained-Efficient Capital Reallocation

受限有效的资本再配置

Andrea Lanteri

Adriano A. Rampini

We characterize efficiency in an equilibrium model of investment and capital reallocation with heterogeneous firms facing collateral constraints. The model features two types of pecuniary externalities: collateral externalities, because the resale price of capital affects collateral constraints, and distributive externalities, because buyers of old capital are more financially constrained than sellers, consistent with empirical evidence. We prove that the stationary equilibrium price of old capital is inefficiently high because the distributive externality exceeds the collateral externality, by a factor of two when we calibrate the model. New investment reduces the future price of old capital, providing a rationale for new-investment subsidies.

我们在一个投资和资本再配置的均衡模型中刻画了面临抵押品约束的异质性企业的效率。该模型具有两种货币外部性:抵押品外部性(因为资本转售价格影响抵押品约束)和分配外部性(因为旧资本的买家比卖家更受融资约束)，这与经验证据一致。我们证明了旧资本的固定均衡价格是低效率的，因为分配外部性超过了抵押品外部性的两倍。新投资降低了旧资本的未来价格，为新投资补贴提供了理由。

 

 

4.Enabling or Limiting Cognitive Flexibility? Evidence of Demand for Moral Commitment

促进还是限制了认知灵活性?需要道德承诺的证据

Silvia Saccardo

Marta Serra-Garcia

Moral behavior is more prevalent when individuals cannot easily distort their beliefs self-servingly. Do individuals seek to limit or enable their ability to distort beliefs? How do these choices affect behavior? Experiments with over 9,000 participants show preferences are heterogeneous—30 percent of participants prefer to limit belief distortion, while over 40 percent prefer to enable it, even if costly. A random assignment mechanism reveals that being assigned to the preferred environment is necessary for curbing or enabling self-serving behavior. Third parties can anticipate these effects, suggesting some sophistication about the cognitive constraints to belief distortion.

当个人不能轻易地自我服务地扭曲他们的信念时，道德行为就更加普遍。个人是否会试图限制或使自己扭曲信念的能力得以发挥?这些选择是如何影响行为的?超过9000名参与者的实验表明，偏好是异质的——30%的参与者倾向于限制信念扭曲，而超过40%的参与者倾向于允许它，即使代价高昂。随机分配机制揭示了被分配到首选环境对抑制或启用自我服务行为是必要的。第三方可以预见到这些影响，这表明关于信念扭曲的认知约束的一些复杂性。

 

 

5.Droughts, Deluges, and (River) Diversions: Valuing Market-Based Water Reallocation

干旱、洪水和(河流)改道:评估基于市场的水再分配

Will Rafey

This paper develops and applies a method to value water trading on a river network. The framework relies on regulatory variation in diversion caps to identify production functions for irrigated farms, then uses the estimated shadow values to assess the market's reallocation. I apply this framework to the largest water market in human history, located in southeastern Australia. Observed water trading increased output by 4–6 percent from 2007 to 2015, equivalent to avoiding an 8–12 percent uniform decline in water resources. Reallocation and average surplus both increase substantially during drought, implying that water markets can be most valuable when climatic variability is most severe.

本文提出并应用一种计算水网水交易价值的方法。该框架依赖于分流上限的监管变化来确定灌溉农场的生产函数，然后使用估计的影子值来评估市场的重新分配。我将这一框架应用于位于澳大利亚东南部的人类历史上最大的水市场。从2007年到2015年，观察到的水交易使产量增加了4 - 6%，相当于避免了水资源8 - 12%的均匀下降。再分配和平均过剩都在干旱期间大幅增加，这意味着当气候变化最严重时，水市场可能最有价值。

 

 

6.Technology Gaps, Trade, and Income

技术差距、贸易和收入

Thomas Sampson

This paper quantifies the contribution of technology gaps to international income inequality. I develop an endogenous growth model where cross-country differences in R&D efficiency and cross-industry differences in innovation and adoption opportunities together determine equilibrium technology gaps, trade patterns, and income inequality. Countries with higher R&D efficiency are richer and have comparative advantage in more innovation-dependent industries. I calibrate R&D efficiency by country and innovation dependence by industry using R&D, patent, and bilateral trade data. Counterfactual analysis implies technology gaps account for one-quarter to one-third of nominal wage variation within the OECD.

本文量化了技术差距对国际收入不平等的贡献。我开发了一个内生增长模型，在该模型中，研发效率的跨国差异、创新和采用机会的跨行业差异共同决定了均衡技术差距、贸易模式和收入不平等。研发效率越高的国家越富有，在更多的创新依赖型产业上具有比较优势。我使用研发、专利和双边贸易数据，对不同国家的研发效率和不同行业的创新依赖进行了校准。反事实分析表明，在经合组织内部，技术差距占名义工资变化的四分之一至三分之一。

 

 

7.Electronic Food Vouchers: Evidence from an At-Scale Experiment in Indonesia

电子食品券:来自印度尼西亚大规模实验的证据

Abhijit Banerjee

Rema Hanna

Benjamin A. Olken

Elan Satriawan

Sudarno Sumarto

We compare how in-kind food assistance and an electronic voucher-based program affect the delivery of aid in practice. The Government of Indonesia randomized across 105 districts the transition from in-kind rice to approximately equivalent electronic vouchers redeemable for rice and eggs at a network of private agents. Targeted households received 46 percent more assistance in voucher areas. For the bottom 15 percent of households at baseline, poverty fell 20 percent. Voucher recipients received higher-quality rice, and increased consumption of eggs. The results suggest moving from a manual in-kind to electronic voucher-based program reduced poverty through increased adherence to program design.

我们比较了实物食品援助和电子代金券项目在实践中对援助发放的影响。印度尼西亚政府在105个地区随机分配了从实物大米到私人代理网络中可兑换大米和鸡蛋的大约同等电子凭证的过渡情况。在代金券地区，目标家庭获得的援助增加了46%。对于处于基线水平的底层15%的家庭来说，贫困率下降了20%。获得代金券的人获得了更高质量的大米，并增加了鸡蛋的消费。结果表明，从手工实物项目转向电子凭单项目，通过增加对项目设计的坚持，减少了贫困。

 

 

8.The Voice of Monetary Policy

货币政策之声

Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Tho Pham

Oleksandr Talavera

We develop a deep learning model to detect emotions embedded in press conferences after the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and examine the influence of the detected emotions on financial markets. We find that, after controlling for the Federal Reserve's actions and the sentiment in policy texts, a positive tone in the voices of Federal Reserve chairs leads to significant increases in share prices. Other financial variables also respond to vocal cues from the chairs. Hence, how policy messages are communicated can move the financial market. Our results provide implications for improving the effectiveness of central bank communications.

我们开发了一个深度学习模型来检测在联邦公开市场委员会会议后的新闻发布会上嵌入的情绪，并考察了检测到的情绪对金融市场的影响。我们发现，在控制了美联储的行动和政策文本中的情绪后，美联储主席的积极语气导致股价大幅上涨。其他金融变量也会对主席们的声音做出反应。因此，政策信息的传递方式可以影响金融市场。本文的研究结果为提高中央银行沟通的有效性提供了启示。