【TED演讲稿】马斯克：一个令人无比期待的未来
TED演讲者：Elon Musk / 埃隆 · 马斯克
演讲标题：A future worth getting excited about / 一个令人无比期待的未来
内容概要：What's on Elon Musk's mind? In conversation with head of TED Chris Anderson, Musk details how the radical new innovations he's working on -- Tesla's intelligent humanoid robot Optimus, SpaceX's otherworldly Starship and Neuralink's brain-machine interfaces, among others -- could help maximize the lifespan of humanity and create a world where goods and services are abundant and accessible for all. It's a compelling vision of a future worth getting excited about. (Recorded at the Tesla Texas Gigafactory on April 6, 2022)
埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）在想些什么？在与 TED 创始人克里斯·安德森（Chris Anderson）的谈话中，马斯克详细讲述了他正在做一些激进的创新，例如特斯拉的智能人形机器人擎天柱、SpaceX 项目的异世界星际飞船以及 Neuralink 项目的脑机接口等等。这些创新项目都可以最大限度地延长人类的寿命，创造一个人人都可以享受丰富产品服务的世界。这一未来愿景值得我们为之期待。 （本次访谈于 2022 年 4 月 6 日在德克萨斯州特斯拉超级工厂录制）
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【1】Chris Anderson: Elon Musk, great to see you.
克里斯.安德森: 埃隆.马斯克,很高兴见到你。
【2】How are you?
你好吗？
【3】Elon Musk: Good. How are you?
埃隆.马斯克:很好,你怎么样？
【4】CA: We're here at the Texas Gigafactory the day before this thing opens.
安德森:我们在德州工厂 开幕的前一天来到这里,
【5】It's been pretty crazy out there.
这里的东西太棒了。
【6】Thank you so much for making time on a busy day.
非常感谢你在百忙之中抽出时间,
【7】I would love you to help us, kind of, cast our minds, I don't know, 10, 20, 30 years into the future.
我希望你能给我们讲一讲, 10年,20年,30年之后的未来是什么样子的,
【8】And help us try to picture what it would take to build a future that's worth getting excited about.
并且谈一谈我们需要做些什么, 从而创造一个令我们向往的未来。
【9】The last time you spoke at TED, you said that that was really just a big driver.
上次你在 TED 演讲时, 你提到有一个很强的东西激励着你,
【10】You know, you can talk about lots of other reasons to do the work you're doing, but fundamentally, you want to think about the future and not think that it sucks.
你可以给你正在从事的事业说出很多的理由, 可这之中最重要的原因是你想要考虑未来, 而不是考虑他有多么的糟糕。
【11】EM: Yeah, absolutely.
马斯克:对,没错。
【12】I think in general, you know, there's a lot of discussion of like, this problem or that problem.
我认为总体而言 对于这样那样的问题,我们有许多看法,
【13】And a lot of people are sad about the future and they're ...
很多人对未来倍感悲伤, 而且他们……
【14】Pessimistic.
很悲观。
【15】And I think ...
我认为……
【16】this is ...
这样……
【17】This is not great.
这样不太好。
【18】I mean, we really want to wake up in the morning and look forward to the future.
我想说,我们的确想在早上醒来后 对未来充满期望,
【19】We want to be excited about what's going to happen.
我们希望对一切即将到来的事情感到兴奋,
【20】And life cannot simply be about sort of, solving one miserable problem after another.
生活不能只是单纯地 解决一个又一个痛苦的问题。
【21】CA: So if you look forward 30 years, you know, the year 2050 has been labeled by scientists as this, kind of, almost like this doomsday deadline on climate.
安德森:所以如果你展望 30 年后的生活, 也就是 2050 年 已经被科学家们打上了标签, 有点像是解决气候问题的最后期限。
【22】There's a consensus of scientists, a large consensus of scientists, who believe that if we haven't completely eliminated greenhouse gases or offset them completely by 2050, effectively we're inviting climate catastrophe.
科学家们有一个共识,一个广泛的共识, 他们认为如果我们不完全消除温室气体, 或者到 2050 年 还没有完全消除温室气体的影响, 那么我们实际上就是在引发气候灾难。
【23】Do you believe there is a pathway to avoid that catastrophe?
你相信有什么途径可以避免这种灾难吗？
【24】And what would it look like?
这条途径会是什么样子？
【25】EM: Yeah, so I am not one of the doomsday people, which may surprise you.
马斯克:没错,我不是世界末日论者。 你可能会对此感到惊讶,
【26】I actually think we're on a good path.
实际上,我觉得我们正走在一条很好的道路上,
【27】But at the same time, I want to caution against complacency.
但同时, 我想提醒大家不要自满,
【28】So, so long as we are not complacent, as long as we have a high sense of urgency about moving towards a sustainable energy economy, then I think things will be fine.
所以,只要我们不自满, 只要我们就有一种高度的紧迫感, 努力实现可持续的能源经济。 那么我想一切都会好起来的。
【29】So I can't emphasize that enough, as long as we push hard and are not complacent, the future is going to be great.
所以我非常强调 只要我们足够努力且不自满, 那么未来将十分美好。
【30】Don't worry about it.
不必担心,
【31】I mean, worry about it, but if you worry about it, ironically, it will be a self-unfulfilling prophecy.
我的意思是,还是要担心一下。 但讽刺的是,如果你担心, 这个预言本身就会前后矛盾无法实现了
【32】So, like, there are three elements to a sustainable energy future.
所以,实现可持续能源的未来要有三个因素:
【33】One is of sustainable energy generation, which is primarily wind and solar.
第一是可持续能源发电, 主要是风能和太阳能
【34】There's also hydro, geothermal, I'm actually pro-nuclear.
还有水能,地热能, 我支持核能发电,
【35】I think nuclear is fine.
我认为核能发电没什么问题。
【36】But it's going to be primarily solar and wind, as the primary generators of energy.
但主要还是太阳能和风能, 作为主要的电力来源;
【37】The second part is you need batteries to store the solar and wind energy because the sun doesn't shine all the time, the wind doesn't blow all the time.
第二是你需要电池来储存太阳能和风能, 因为太阳并不会一直照耀, 风不会一直在吹,
【38】So it's a lot of stationary battery packs.
所以这就需要大量的固定电池组。
【39】And then you need electric transport.
第三是你需要实现电力传输,
【40】So electric cars, electric planes, boats.
从而支持电动汽车、电动飞机、电动船,
【41】And then ultimately, it's not really possible to make electric rockets, but you can make the propellant used in rockets using sustainable energy.
而最后, 我们似乎不太可能造的出电动火箭, 但是可以让火箭发射的推进剂 使用可持续能源。
【42】So ultimately, we can have a fully sustainable energy economy.
这样我们就可以最终拥有一个 完全可持续的能源经济,
【43】And it's those three things: solar/wind, stationary battery pack, electric vehicles.
在那三个东西的帮助下, 也就是太阳能/风能, 固定电池组,电动交通工具。
【44】So then what are the limiting factors on progress?
那么什么是限制进步的因素呢？
【45】The limiting factor really will be battery cell production.
真正限制的因素将会是电池的生产,
【46】So that's going to really be the fundamental rate driver.
这一点会是影响发展速度最关键的因素。
【47】And then whatever the slowest element of the whole lithium-ion battery cells supply chain, from mining and the many steps of refining to ultimately creating a battery cell and putting it into a pack, that will be the limiting factor on progress towards sustainability.
生产过程中发展最慢的因素 即在整个锂离子电池供应链中, 从采矿和提炼的多个步骤 到最终制成锂离子电池并将其打包, 其中发展最慢的部分 将限制可持续发展的进步。
【48】CA: All right, so we need to talk more about batteries, because the key thing that I want to understand, like, there seems to be a scaling issue here that is kind of amazing and alarming.
安德森:好的, 所以我们需要更多地谈一谈电池, 因为我最想了解的是 似乎有一个关于电池量规模的问题, 有点令人惊讶且令人担忧。
【49】You have said that you have calculated that the amount of battery production that the world needs for sustainability is 300 terawatt hours of batteries.
你曾说你已经计算了 世界可持续发展所需要的电池产量 达到了300太瓦时,
【50】That's the end goal?
这是我们的最终目标吗？
【51】EM: Very rough numbers, and I certainly would invite others to check our calculations because they may arrive at different conclusions.
马斯克:这只是一个非常粗略的数字, 我当然会邀请其他人来验证我们的计算, 因为他们可能会得出不同的结论,
【52】But in order to transition, not just current electricity production, but also heating and transport, which roughly triples the amount of electricity that you need, it amounts to approximately 300 terawatt hours of installed capacity.
但是为了实现可持续能源的过渡, 除了目前的电力生产外, 还有供暖和交通需要改变。 因为其消耗的能量大概是所需电量的三倍, 而它的装机容量大约为 300 太瓦时。
【53】CA: So we need to give people a sense of how big a task that is.
安德森:所以我们需要让人们知道 这个任务是多么的庞大,
【54】I mean, here we are at the Gigafactory.
我们现在身处于特斯拉超级工厂,
【55】You know, this is one of the biggest buildings in the world.
这是世界上最大的建筑之一。
【56】What I've read, and tell me if this is still right, is that the goal here is to eventually produce 100 gigawatt hours of batteries here a year eventually.
我了解到的是 这里的最终目标是 一年要生产 100 千兆瓦时的电池, 现在的目标还是这样吗？
【57】EM: We will probably do more than that, but yes, hopefully we get there within a couple of years.
马斯克:我们可能会生产得更多 但我们的确希望能在几年内做到这一点。
【58】CA: Right.
安德森:好的。
【59】But I mean, that is one - EM: 0.1 terrawat hours.
但我的意思是,这是 1 马斯克:0.1 太瓦时。
【60】CA: But that's still 1/100 of what's needed.
安德森:但这依然只有我们需要的百分之一,
【61】How much of the rest of that 100 is Tesla planning to take on let's say, between now and 2030, 2040, when we really need to see the scale up happen?
剩下的部分特斯拉准备接手多少？ 比如说:从现在到 2030 或 2040 年 也就是到真正需要扩大电池生产规模的时候？
【62】EM: I mean, these are just guesses.
马斯克:我的意思是,这些还只是猜测
【63】So please, people shouldn't hold me to these things.
所以人们不必因为这种预测责怪我,
【64】It's not like this is like some - What tends to happen is I'll make some like, you know, best guess and then people, in five years, there'll be some jerk that writes an article: "Elon said this would happen, and it didn't happen.
这又不是什么…… 通常会发生的事情是:我会做出一些 尽我所能可以做出的最好猜测, 然后在五年后, 一定会有一些混蛋写一篇这样的文章: “马斯克曾说这件事一定会发生,但并没有
【65】He's a liar and a fool."
他就是个骗子,是个傻瓜。”
【66】It's very annoying when that happens.
这种事情很让人生气,
【67】So these are just guesses, this is a conversation.
所以这些只是一些猜测,只限于谈话。
【68】CA: Right.
安德森:没错。
【69】EM: I think Tesla probably ends up doing 10 percent of that.
马斯克:我认为特斯拉最终 可能会承担 10% 的制造任务,
【70】Roughly.
大概是这样。
【71】CA: Let's say 2050 we have this amazing, you know, 100 percent sustainable electric grid made up of, you know, some mixture of the sustainable energy sources you talked about.
安德森:假设 2050 年, 我们拥有了这个无比神奇的, 完全可持续的电网, 并由一些你谈到的多种可持续能源支持,
【72】That same grid probably is offering the world really low-cost energy, isn't it, compared with now.
同样的电网也可能在全世界推广 和现在相比 这种能源的生产成本很低,不是吗？
【73】And I'm curious about like, are people entitled to get a little bit excited about the possibilities of that world?
我很好奇, 人们是不是应该兴奋一下, 因为这样的未来可能发生？
【74】EM: People should be optimistic about the future.
马斯克:人们应该对这样的未来保持乐观,
【75】Humanity will solve sustainable energy.
人类将解决可持续能源的问题。
【76】It will happen if we, you know, continue to push hard, the future is bright and good from an energy standpoint.
只要我们不断努力,这一切就可以实现, 从能源的角度来看,未来一片光明美好。
【77】And then it will be possible to also use that energy to do carbon sequestration.
这样就有可能利用这些能源进行碳封存,
【78】It takes a lot of energy to pull carbon out of the atmosphere because in putting it in the atmosphere it releases energy.
从大气中吸收碳需要大量的能量, 因为在排放含碳气体会放出能量。
【79】So now, you know, obviously in order to pull it out, you need to use a lot of energy.
现在,很明显为了从大气中吸收碳, 你需要耗费大量的能量,
【80】But if you've got a lot of sustainable energy from wind and solar, you can actually sequester carbon.
但如果你有大量的可持续能源, 比如风能和太阳能, 你就可以实现固碳。
【81】So you can reverse the CO2 parts per million of the atmosphere and oceans.
这样就可以逆转二氧化碳 在大气与海洋中的含量,
【82】And also you can really have as much fresh water as you want.
而且这样的话你想要多少淡水都可以。
【83】Earth is mostly water.
地球的大部分都是水,
【84】We should call Earth "Water."
我们应该叫它“水球”。
【85】It's 70 percent water by surface area.
它 70% 的表面被水覆盖,
【86】Now most of that's seawater, but it's like we just happen to be on the bit that's land.
目前来说大部分是海水, 但就好像我们刚好在陆地的这一边。
【87】CA: And with energy, you can turn seawater into - EM: Yes.
安德森:有了这些能量就可以把海水变成 马斯克:没错。
【88】CA: Irrigating water or whatever water you need.
安德森:灌溉用水或者任何你需要的水。
【89】EM: At very low cost.
马斯克:而且成本很低,
【90】Things will be good.
效果也不错。
【91】CA: Things will be good.
安德森:效果也不错。
【92】And also, there's other benefits to this non-fossil fuel world where the air is cleaner - EM: Yes, exactly.
而且使用非化石燃料的世界还有别的好处, 那样世界的空气会更清新。 马斯克:对,没错。
【93】Because, like, when you burn fossil fuels, there's all these side reactions and toxic gases of various kinds.
因为当你使用化石燃料时, 会产生很多不好的影响, 并且产生各种各样的有毒气体,
【94】And sort of little particulates that are bad for your lungs.
还有一些对肺部有害的微粒。
【95】Like, there's all sorts of bad things that are happening that will go away.
现在这些不好的东西, 以后都会消失。
【96】And the sky will be cleaner and quieter.
天空会更干净,更安静。
【97】The future's going to be good.
未来会更美好。
【98】CA: I want us to switch now to think a bit about artificial intelligence.
安德森:我现在想转到人工智能的话题,
【99】But the segue there, you mentioned how annoying it is when people call you up for bad predictions in the past.
不过为了让过渡自然一点,我想说, 你提到别人在责备你时很烦人, 他们会责备你在过去错误的预测,
【100】So I'm possibly going to be annoying now, but I'm curious about your timelines and how you predict and how come some things are so amazingly on the money and some aren't.
所以我现在可能会让你有点生气。 但我很好奇你之后的时间规划、对未来的预测, 以及为什么你在一些金钱上的预测如此准确, 而有些则不然,
【101】So when it comes to predicting sales of Tesla vehicles, for example, you've kind of been amazing, I think in 2014 when Tesla had sold that year 60,000 cars, you said, "2020, I think we will do half a million a year."
例如当你在预测特斯拉汽车的销售量时, 你一直都准确的惊人, 我记得在 2014 年, 特斯拉一年售出了 6 万辆汽车。 你说:“我认为我们将在 2020 年生产 50 万辆。”
【102】EM: Yeah, we did almost exactly a half million.
马斯克:是的,我们几乎正好生产了 50 万辆。
【103】CA: You did almost exactly half a million.
安德森:你们几乎正好生产了 50 万辆。
【104】You were scoffed in 2014 because no one since Henry Ford, with the Model T, had come close to that kind of growth rate for cars.
2014 年时你被嘲笑了,因为自亨利.福特之后, 除了他旗下的T型车, 没有人可以接近这样的汽车生产增长率,
【105】You were scoffed, and you actually hit 500,000 cars and then 510,000 or whatever produced.
你被嘲笑了,而特斯拉实际上 真的生产了 50 万 还是 51 万辆车。
【106】But five years ago, last time you came to TED, I asked you about full self-driving, and you said, "Yeah, this very year,
但是 5 年前,也就是你上次来 TED 时, 我向你询问了关于全自动驾驶的问题。 你说:没错,就是今年
【107】I'm confident that we will have a car going from LA to New York without any intervention."
我相信特斯拉将使一辆汽车从洛杉矶开往纽约, 但全程不受任何干扰。
【108】EM: Yeah, I don't want to blow your mind, but I'm not always right.
马斯克:是的,我不想让你惊讶, 但我并非总是对的
【109】CA: (Laughs) What's the difference between those two?
安德森:（笑声） 那么这两者之间有什么区别呢？
【110】Why has full self-driving in particular been so hard to predict?
为什么全自动驾驶这件事情会特别难以预测？
【111】EM: I mean, the thing that really got me, and I think it's going to get a lot of other people, is that there are just so many false dawns with self-driving, where you think you've got the problem, have a handle on the problem, and then it, no, turns out you just hit a ceiling.
马斯克:我想有件事情让我明白了, 我想许多人也会明白, 自动驾驶领域有很多胜利的曙光并不真实, 你以为你解决了这个问题, 掌握了解决的关键, 然而并没有,实际上你只是碰上了瓶颈。
【112】Because if you were to plot the progress, the progress looks like a log curve.
因为如果你把进展绘制成统计图, 你会发现它看起来就像一条对数曲线,
【113】So it's like a series of log curves.
一系列的对数曲线,
【114】So most people don't know what a log curve is, I suppose.
不过我想大多数人并不知道对数曲线是什么。
【115】CA: Show the shape with your hands.
安德森:用手来展示一下它的样子吧。
【116】EM: It goes up you know, sort of a fairly straight way, and then it starts tailing off and you start getting diminishing returns.
马斯克:对数曲线以一种几乎垂直的方式上升, 之后开始递减, 你的收益越来越少。
【117】And you're like, uh oh, it was trending up and now it's sort of, curving over and you start getting to these, what I call local maxima, where you don't realize basically how dumb you were.
而你会说,噢, 它之前不断向上,现在只是有点下降, 然后你就会遇到我称为局部最大值的问题, 在这种情况下你认识不到自己有多么蠢。
【118】And then it happens again.
然后这种情况将再次发生,
【119】And ultimately...
直到最后……
【120】These things, you know, in retrospect, they seem obvious, but in order to solve full self-driving properly, you actually have to solve real-world AI.
当这种问题似乎愈发明显, 但为了正确处理全自动驾驶的问题, 你就不得不先解决现实世界中的人工智能问题,
【121】Because what are the road networks designed to work with?
在设计时,公路网需要什么才能运行？
【122】They're designed to work with a biological neural net, our brains, and with vision, our eyes.
它们需要生物神经网络,也就是我们的大脑, 以及视觉,也就是我们的眼睛,
【123】And so in order to make it work with computers, you basically need to solve real-world AI and vision.
因此,为了让公路网可以配合计算机运行, 你就需要解决现实世界的人工智能 和计算机视觉技术。
【124】Because we need cameras and silicon neural nets in order to have self-driving work for a system that was designed for eyes and biological neural nets.
因为我们需要摄像头 以及硅神经网络, 从而让自动驾驶 适用于原先基于视觉 及生物神经网络设计的系统。
【125】You know, I guess when you put it that way, it's sort of, like, quite obvious that the only way to solve full self-driving is to solve real world AI and sophisticated vision.
如果你这么想的话, 很明显, 解决全自动驾驶的唯一方法 就是解决现实世界的人工智能 以及复杂的视觉技术问题。
【126】CA: What do you feel about the current architecture?
安德森:你对目前的体系架构有什么看法？
【127】Do you think you have an architecture now where there is a chance for the logarithmic curve not to tail off any anytime soon?
你认为你现在有没有一种架构, 可以有一定的机会, 使得这一对数曲线不至于很快衰减？
【128】EM: Well I mean, admittedly these may be infamous last words, but I actually am confident that we will solve it this year.
马斯克:我承认这可能是一个臭名昭着的遗言, 但实际上我相信特斯拉将在今年解决这个问题,
【129】That we will exceed - The probability of an accident, at what point do you exceed that of the average person?
这样我们就能超越…… 在交通事故率的层面上, 我们何时会低于人类驾驶发生的事故率？
【130】I think we will exceed that this year.
我认为我们将在今年实现这一成就。
【131】CA: What are you seeing behind the scenes that gives you that confidence?
安德森:你在幕后看到了什么让你这般自信？
【132】EM: We're almost at the point where we have a high-quality unified vector space.
马斯克:我们几乎搭建了一个高质量的 统一的矢量空间,
【133】In the beginning, we were trying to do this with image recognition on individual images.
一开始,我们在进行图像识别时, 只是对单个图像进行分析。
【134】But if you get one image out of a video, it's actually quite hard to see what's going on without ambiguity.
但如果你从一个视频中截取一帧图像, 实际上很难看清发生了什么, 并且容易产生模糊,
【135】But if you look at a video segment of a few seconds of video, that ambiguity resolves.
但如果你看一个几秒钟的视频片段, 这种模糊就消除了,
【136】So the first thing we had to do is tie all eight cameras together so they're synchronized, so that all the frames are looked at simultaneously and labeled simultaneously by one person, because we still need human labeling.
我们首先要将八台摄像机绑定在一起 使他们实现同步, 这样所有的画面都可以同时播放, 并且同时由一个人进行标记。 因为我们依然需要人类进行标注,
【137】So at least they're not labeled at different times by different people in different ways.
至少它们不会在不同的时间由不同的人, 用不同的方式进行标注,
【138】So it's sort of a surround picture.
这是一种环绕式的图像。
【139】Then a very important part is to add the time dimension.
这一过程中非常重要的部分就是加入时间维度,
【140】So that you're looking at surround video, and you're labeling surround video.
这样你看到的就是环绕式的视频, 并对其进行标注,
【141】And this is actually quite difficult to do from a software standpoint.
从软件的角度来看, 这一点实际上是非常困难的。
【142】We had to write our own labeling tools and then create auto labeling, create auto labeling software to amplify the efficiency of human labelers because it's quite hard to label.
我们不得不编写我们自己的标注工具, 之后编写一个自动标注软件, 从而提升人力标注的效率, 因为标注是相当困难的。
【143】In the beginning, it was taking several hours to label a 10-second video clip.
最开始的时候,我们需要花费几个小时, 标注一个10秒的视频片段,
【144】This is not scalable.
这样是无法规模化工作的,
【145】So basically what you have to have is you have to have surround video, and that surround video has to be primarily automatically labeled with humans just being editors
所以你必须有环绕式的视频, 而且这个视频必须先由 自动标注程序完成绝大部分工作, 而人类作为编辑者
【146】and making slight corrections to the labeling of the video and then feeding back those corrections into the future auto labeler, so you get this flywheel eventually
只需对视频的标注做出些许的修正, 然后将这些修正反馈给接下来的自动标注程序, 这样你就可以形成一个高速运转的处理流程,
【147】where the auto labeler is able to take in vast amounts of video and with high accuracy, automatically label the video for cars, lane lines, drive space.
自动标注程序可以处理大量的视频, 同时保证很高的准确率, 并自动标注视频中的汽车、车道线以及驾驶空间。
【148】CA: What you're saying is ...
安德森:你是说……
【149】the result of this is that you're effectively giving the car a 3D model of the actual objects that are all around it.
这样你就可以给汽车提供一个 车身周围实际物体的3D模型,
【150】It knows what they are, and it knows how fast they are moving.
这样就可以知道这些物体是什么, 以及他们的移动速度,
【151】And the remaining task is to predict what the quirky behaviors are that, you know, that when a pedestrian is walking down the road with a smaller pedestrian,
而剩下的任务就是 预测那些异常的行为, 比如当一个大人带着小孩子过马路时,
【152】that maybe that smaller pedestrian might do something unpredictable or things like that.
小孩子可能做出一些难以预测的举动, 或者其他类似的情况,
【153】You have to build into it before you can really call it safe.
你必须解决这样的问题才可以保证安全。
【154】EM: You basically need to have memory across time and space.
马斯克:你需要可以记录时空的记忆,
【155】So what I mean by that is ...
我的意思是
【156】Memory can't be infinite, because it's using up a lot of the computer's RAM basically.
记忆不可能是无限的, 因为它会占用大量电脑内存,
【157】So you have to say how much are you going to try to remember?
所以你必须知道你打算记住多少内容？
【158】It's very common for things to be occluded.
很多时候东西会被遮挡,
【159】So if you talk about say, a pedestrian walking past a truck where you saw the pedestrian start on one side of the truck, then they're occluded by the truck.
比如当一个行人走过一辆卡车时, 你只能看见他从卡车的一端走了过去, 但之后就被卡车挡住了,
【160】You would know intuitively, OK, that pedestrian is going to pop out the other side, most likely.
你本能地就会知道 那个行人很有可能从卡车另一端出现。
【161】CA: A computer doesn't know it.
安德森:可计算机并不知道。
【162】EM: You need to slow down.
马斯克:而你得慢下来。
【163】CA: A skeptic is going to say that every year for the last five years, you've kind of said, well, no this is the year, we're confident that it will be there in a year or two or, you know, like it's always been about that far away.
安德森:一个对此持怀疑态度的人会说 在过去五年中的每一年, 你都会说,没错, 就是今年, 我们相信最近一两年就可以实现目标, 似乎目标总是那么远。
【164】But we've got a new architecture now, you're seeing enough improvement behind the scenes to make you not certain, but pretty confident, that, by the end of this year,
但是我们现在有了一个新的架构, 你在幕后也看到了足够的技术进步, 这让你虽然并不确定, 但很有信心在今年年底前,
【165】what in most, not in every city, and every circumstance but in many cities and circumstances, basically the car will be able to drive without interventions safer than a human.
尽管并非是在所有城市的所有环境下, 而是在许多的城市和情况下, 特斯拉的汽车将可以在不受干扰的情况下, 比人类驾驶更加安全。
【166】EM: Yes.
马斯克:没错。
【167】I mean, the car currently drives me around Austin most of the time with no interventions.
我的车现在会载着我在德州的奥斯汀, 大多数的时候都不需要人工干预,
【168】So it's not like ... And we have over 100,000 people in our full self-driving beta program.
而且我们有超过 10 万人 是我们全自动驾驶的用户,
【169】So you can look at the videos that they post online.
你可以在网上看到他们发布的相关视频。
【170】CA: I do.
安德森:没错,我有看。
【171】And some of them are great, and some of them are a little terrifying.
有些视频看起来很棒,但也有些有点可怕,
【172】I mean, occasionally the car seems to veer off and scare the hell out of people.
因为汽车偶尔会突然转向 把人们吓坏了。
【173】EM: It's still a beta.
马斯克:它还只是个试验版本。
【174】CA: But you're behind the scenes, looking at the data, you're seeing enough improvement to believe that a this-year timeline is real.
安德森:但是你会在幕后看到那些数据, 你看到了足够的进步, 让你相信今年确实可以实现这个目标。
【175】EM: Yes, that's what it seems like.
马斯克:是的,看起来是这样的,
【176】I mean, we could be here talking again in a year, like, well, another year went by, and it didn't happen.
一年后我们还可以在这里讨论, 可能一年过去了,目标依然没有实现,
【177】But I think this is the year.
但我依然认为今年就是实现全自动驾驶的那一年。
【178】CA: And so in general, when people talk about Elon time, I mean it sounds like you can't just have a general rule that if you predict that something will be done in six months,
安德森:所以总体而言, 当人们谈到“埃隆时间”, 你似乎没有一个通用的规则, 即如果你预测某件事情可以在 6 个月内完成,
【179】actually what we should imagine is it's going to be a year or it's like two-x or three-x, it depends on the type of prediction.
那么实际上我们应该想这个事情可能需要 1 年, 也就是 2 到 3 倍的时间来完成这件事情 这取决于你所预测的东西,
【180】Some things, I guess, things involving software, AI, whatever, are fundamentally harder to predict than others.
我想在涉及到软件以及人工智能之类的事情时, 它们从根本上而言就比其他的东西更难预测。
【181】Is there an element that you actually deliberately make aggressive prediction timelines to drive people to be ambitious?
有没有这样的一种因素, 你实际上会特意做出一些激进的预测, 从而激发人们的信心？
【182】Without that, nothing gets done?
而如果不这样的话,我们将一事无成？
【183】EM: Well, I generally believe, in terms of internal timelines, that we want to set the most aggressive timeline that we can.
马斯克:我相信一般对于内部的时间规划而言, 我们希望可以制定最激进的时间规划,
【184】Because there's sort of like a law of gaseous expansion where, for schedules, where whatever time you set, it's not going to be less than that.
因为有一个类似于气体膨胀的规律。 即对于时间规划而言, 不论你设定的时间是什么, 你实际花费的时间一定会超过设定值,
【185】It's very rare that it'll be less than that.
你很少可以提前完成,
【186】But as far as our predictions are concerned, what tends to happen in the media is that they will report all the wrong ones and ignore all the right ones.
但是对于我们的预测来说, 媒体会有一种倾向, 他们会去报道所有错误的预测, 而对正确的预测视而不见,
【187】Or, you know, when writing an article about me - I've had a long career in multiple industries.
或者在写关于我的文章时, 我在很多行业工作了很长的时间,
【188】If you list my sins, I sound like the worst person on Earth.
如果你列出我所有犯过的错, 那么我听起来就是世界上最坏的人,
【189】But if you put those against the things I've done right, it makes much more sense, you know?
但当你把那些事情和我做对的事情放在一起比较, 这一切就变得合理了。
【190】So essentially like, the longer you do anything, the more mistakes that you will make cumulatively.
本质上来说,你做一件事情越久, 你积累的错误就会越多,
【191】Which, if you sum up those mistakes, will sound like I'm the worst predictor ever.
如果你把那些错误加起来, 那么我听起来就是史上最差的预测者,
【192】But for example, for Tesla vehicle growth, I said I think we'd do 50 percent, and we've done 80 percent.
比如对于特斯拉汽车的增长值。 我说我认为我们会实现 50% 的增长, 但实际上我们增长了 80% 。
【193】CA: Yes.
安德森:是的。
【194】EM: But they don't mention that one.
马斯克:但媒体不会提到这些东西,
【195】So, I mean, I'm not sure what my exact track record is on predictions.
所以我并不确定我在预测方面具体做的如何,
【196】They're more optimistic than pessimistic, but they're not all optimistic.
我的预测中乐观多于悲观, 但并非全都是乐观的预测,
【197】Some of them are exceeded probably more or later, but they do come true.
这些预测中一些或多或少地超出了预测期限, 但确实都实现了。
【198】It's very rare that they do not come true.
我的预测很少出现没有实现的情况,
【199】It's sort of like, you know, if there's some radical technology prediction, the point is not that it was a few years late, but that it happened at all.
就比如说, 如果有一些激进的技术方面的预测, 重点并不是技术的实现比预期晚了几年, 而是它的的确确发生了,
【200】That's the more important part.
这才是更重要的地方。
【201】CA: So it feels like at some point in the last year, seeing the progress on understanding, the Tesla AI understanding the world around it, led to a kind of, an aha moment at Tesla.
安德森:似乎在去年的某个时候, 当人们看到 特斯拉人工智能对周围世界的理解能力的进步, 人们对于特斯拉所做的事情恍然大悟,
【202】Because you really surprised people recently when you said probably the most important product development going on at Tesla this year is this robot, Optimus.
因为你们最近做的事情确实让人大吃一惊。 当你说今年特斯拉最重要的产品研发 很可能就是这个机器人“擎天柱”。
【203】EM: Yes.
马斯克:是的。
【204】CA: Many companies out there have tried to put out these robots, they've been working on them for years.
安德森:许多公司都试图推出机器人, 他们为此研究了很多年,
【205】And so far no one has really cracked it.
而目前为止还没有人真正可以搞定这项技术,
【206】There's no mass adoption robot in people's homes.
家用机器人还没有被大规模采用,
【207】There are some in manufacturing, but I would say, no one's kind of, really cracked it.
一些制造产业采用了机器人 但我想说的是 还没有人能够真正解决机器人这个技术。
【208】Is it something that happened in the development of full self-driving that gave you the confidence to say, "You know what, we could do something special here."
是不是在全自动驾驶的研发过程中 发生了什么,让你有自信说, “我们可以在这个领域做出一些特别的事情。”
【209】EM: Yeah, exactly.
马斯克:是的,没错。
【210】So, you know, it took me a while to sort of realize that in order to solve self-driving, you really needed to solve real-world AI.
我花了不少时间才意识到 为了解决自动驾驶问题, 你真的需要解决现实世界的人工智能技术,
【211】And at the point of which you solve real-world AI for a car, which is really a robot on four wheels, you can then generalize that to a robot on legs as well.
只有当你在汽车上 实现了现实世界的人工智能技术, 也就是真正做出了一个四轮机器人, 你才可以把这项技术应用到有腿的机器人身上,
【212】The two hard parts I think - like obviously companies like Boston Dynamics have shown that it's possible to make quite compelling, sometimes alarming robots.
我认为这个过程中有两个难点 之前像波士顿动力这样的公司 已经证明人类可以制造出相当引人注目, 有时却又有些令人担忧的机器人。
【213】CA: Right.
安德森:没错。
【214】EM: You know, so from a sensors and actuators standpoint, it's certainly been demonstrated by many that it's possible to make a humanoid robot.
马斯克:从传感器和执行器的角度来说, 许多案例已经证明 我们可以做出一个人形机器人。
【215】The things that are currently missing are enough intelligence for the robot to navigate the real world and do useful things without being explicitly instructed.
目前的不足之处就是机器人缺乏足够的智能 应对现实世界, 并在无明确指示的前提下做有用的事情,
【216】So the missing things are basically real-world intelligence and scaling up manufacturing.
所以目前我们需要的就是现实世界的人工智能, 以及扩大制造业生产规模。
【217】Those are two things that Tesla is very good at.
而这两件事正是特斯拉所擅长的,
【218】And so then we basically just need to design the specialized actuators and sensors that are needed for humanoid robot.
所以我们需要的就只是设计出 人形机器人需要的执行器和传感器,
【219】People have no idea, this is going to be bigger than the car.
人们并不知道这件事情比汽车项目更为庞大。
【220】CA: So let's dig into exactly that.
安德森:那我们不妨深入探究一下这个问题。
【221】I mean, in one way, it's actually an easier problem than full self-driving because instead of an object going along at 60 miles an hour, which if it gets it wrong, someone will die.
在某种程度上, 这个项目比全自动驾驶更容易做。 因为这不是一个时速 60 英里的物体, 一旦出了差错就会造成人员伤亡,
【222】This is an object that's engineered to only go at what, three or four or five miles an hour.
这个东西在设计出来后, 只能以每小时 3 到 4 或者 5 英里的速度移动。
【223】And so a mistake, there aren't lives at stake.
因此即使机器人出现故障, 也不会有人受到伤害,
【224】There might be embarrassment at stake.
只会造成一些尴尬。
【225】EM: So long as the AI doesn't take it over and murder us in our sleep or something.
马斯克:只要人工智能不会在我们睡觉 或者在其他时间主动行动谋杀我们就可以。
【226】CA: Right.
安德森:没错。
【227】So talk about - I think the first applications you've mentioned are probably going to be manufacturing, but eventually the vision is to have these available for people at home.
说到这里 我记得你提到这个技术的第一个应用 很可能是用于制造业, 但它最终是要人们在家里也可以使用机器人,
【228】If you had a robot that really understood the 3D architecture of your house and knew where every object in that house was or was supposed to be, and could recognize all those objects,
如果你有一个真正了解 你的房子的三维结构的机器人, 并且知道房间内的所有物品的位置 或者知道这些物品原本该放在哪里, 并且可以识别出所有的物品。
【229】I mean, that's kind of amazing, isn't it?
这很神奇,不是吗？
【230】Like the kind of thing that you could ask a robot to do would be what?
那么你可以让机器人做哪些事情？
【231】Like, tidy up?
比如说,打扫卫生？
【232】EM: Yeah, absolutely.
马斯克:当然。
【233】Make dinner, I guess, mow the lawn.
比如做晚饭,修剪草坪。
【234】CA: Take a cup of tea to grandma and show her family pictures.
安德森:给祖母端一杯茶,给她看一看家庭合照。
【235】EM: Exactly. Take care of my grandmother and make sure - CA: It could obviously recognize everyone in the home.
马斯克:没错,照顾我的祖母,并确保 安德森:它显然可以识别家中的每一个人,
【236】It could play catch with your kids.
和你的孩子玩躲猫猫。
【237】EM: Yes. I mean, obviously, we need to be careful this doesn't become a dystopian situation.
马斯克:是的,不过我们需要注意 不要让这一切变成 反乌托邦式社会里的可怕场景,
【238】I think one of the things that's going to be important is to have a localized ROM chip on the robot that cannot be updated over the air.
我认为有一件很重要的事情, 那就是保证机器人只能使用本地的ROM芯片, 不能使其可以通过无线方式更新。
【239】Where if you, for example, were to say, "Stop, stop, stop,"
比如,当你说:“停,停,停”,
【240】if anyone said that, then the robot would stop, you know, type of thing.
或者只要任何人说出这句话, 那这个机器人就该停下来 其他情况也是如此,
【241】And that's not updatable remotely.
这种功能不可以通过远程更新改变。
【242】I think it's going to be important to have safety features like that.
我认为这样的安全功能尤为重要。
【243】CA: Yeah, that sounds wise.
安德森:是的,这个点子很明智。
【244】EM: And I do think there should be a regulatory agency for AI.
马斯克:我认为应该 有一个人工智能的监管机构,
【245】I've said that for many years.
我已经这样说了很多年了,
【246】I don't love being regulated, but I think this is an important thing for public safety.
我也并不喜欢被监管, 但我认为这对安全十分重要。
【247】CA: Let's come back to that.
安德森:让我们再谈谈这个问题,
【248】But I don't think many people have really sort of taken seriously the notion of, you know, a robot at home.
但我觉得许多人都没有认真对待这个事情, 正如你所说的,对于家庭机器人这个事情。
【249】I mean, at the start of the computing revolution, Bill Gates said there's going to be a computer in every home.
在计算机革命开始, 比尔盖茨说每个家庭都会有一台电脑,
【250】And people at the time said, yeah, whatever, who would even want that.
但当时的人们说,谁会用这种玩意儿。
【251】Do you think there will be basically like in, say, 2050 or whatever, like a robot in most homes, is what there will be, and people will love them and count on them?
你认为到 2050 年之后,或者任何时候, 大多数的家庭会配备机器人吗？ 而且人们会喜欢并且依赖这些机器人？
【252】You'll have your own butler basically.
这样你就有了自己的管家。
【253】EM: Yeah, you'll have your sort of buddy robot probably, yeah.
马斯克:你会有你的机器人伙伴。
【254】CA: I mean, how much of a buddy?
安德森:多大程度上的伙伴？
【255】How many applications have you thought, you know, can you have a romantic partner, a sex partner?
你认为会有多少种应用形式呢？ 你可以有一个恋人,性伴？
【256】EM: It's probably inevitable.
马斯克:这个趋势恐怕不可避免,
【257】I mean, I did promise the internet that I'd make catgirls.
我确实向网民承诺过我会生产猫女郎,
【258】We could make a robot catgirl.
我们可以生产机器人猫女郎。
【259】CA: Be careful what you promise the internet.
安德森:你对网民 做出承诺的时候还是小心为妙。
【260】EM: So, yeah, I guess it'll be whatever people want really, you know.
马斯克:我想人们可以有各种各样的机器人。
【261】CA: What sort of timeline should we be thinking about of the first models that are actually made and sold?
安德森:我们什么时候可以等来, 第一批真正生产和销的机器人？
【262】EM: Well, you know, the first units that we intend to make are for jobs that are dangerous, boring, repetitive, and things that people don't want to do.
马斯克:我们打算制造的第一批机器人 是为了从事危险的、无聊的、重复的工作, 这些都是人们不愿意做的事情。
【263】And, you know, I think we'll have like an interesting prototype sometime this year.
我们会做出一个有趣的原型,
【264】We might have something useful next year, but I think quite likely within at least two years.
可能在明年我们就能做出一些有用的产品, 但我想很可能至少两年之内,
【265】And then we'll see rapid growth year over year of the usefulness of the humanoid robots and decrease in cost and scaling up production.
我们就会看到 人形机器人的实用性将连年递增, 并且成本降低、生产规模扩大。
【266】CA: Initially just selling to businesses, or when do you picture you'll start selling them where you can buy your parents one for Christmas or something?
安德森:最初这些机器人只向企业销售, 你认为什么时候你可以向普通人销售, 这样你就可以给你的父母或者在其他节日 买一个机器人作礼物？
【267】EM: I'd say in less than ten years.
马斯克:我想应该用不了十年的时间。
【268】CA: Help me on the economics of this.
安德森:请帮我分析一下这其中的经济问题,
【269】So what do you picture the cost of one of these being?
你认为这些机器人的造价会是多少？
【270】EM: Well, I think the cost is actually not going to be crazy high.
马斯克:我想应该不会特别高,
【271】Like less than a car.
可能会比一辆车的造价还低,
【272】Initially, things will be expensive because it'll be a new technology at low production volume.
刚开始的时候我想可能会比较昂贵, 因为这是一项新的技术, 产量也很低,
【273】The complexity and cost of a car is greater than that of a humanoid robot.
而汽车的复杂程度 以及造价都比人形机器人的高,
【274】So I would expect that it's going to be less than a car, or at least equivalent to a cheap car.
所以我预计机器人的造价会比汽车更低, 或者至少与一辆廉价车相当,
【275】CA: So even if it starts at 50k, within a few years, it's down to 20k or lower or whatever.
安德森:所以即使最初它会花费 5 万美元, 但是几年后, 它就会降到 2 万甚至更低的价格,
【276】And maybe for home they'll get much cheaper still.
家用型机器人甚至有可能更便宜,
【277】But think about the economics of this.
但是关于这其中的经济问题,
【278】If you can replace a $30,000,
如果你可以替代掉一名年薪 3 万美元,
【279】$40,000-a-year worker, which you have to pay every year, with a one-time payment of $25,000 for a robot that can work longer hours, a pretty rapid replacement of certain types of jobs.
或者 4 万美元的工人, 而且你必须每年都支付他们工资, 而现在只要一次性支付 2 万 5 千美元, 就可以买到一个可以工作更久的机器人。 许多类型的工作都会被迅速取代,
【280】How worried should the world be about that?
那么全世界对此应该展现出何等的担忧？
【281】EM: I wouldn't worry about the sort of, putting people out of a job thing.
马斯克:我不会担心这种人们失去工作的事情,
【282】I think we're actually going to have, and already do have, a massive shortage of labor.
我认为我们会有而且实际上已经面临着 大规模的劳动力短缺的问题。
【283】So I think we will have ...
所以我认为我们会……
【284】Not people out of work, but actually still a shortage labor even in the future.
人们并不会找不到工作, 因为即使是在未来也会面临劳动力短缺的问题,
【285】But this really will be a world of abundance.
但这确实会让世界的资源丰富起来,
【286】Any goods and services will be available to anyone who wants them.
每个人都可以享受任何商品和服务,
【287】It'll be so cheap to have goods and services, it will be ridiculous.
商品和服务将 会变得十分廉价,便宜到荒谬的程度。
【288】CA: I'm presuming it should be possible to imagine a bunch of goods and services that can't profitably be made now but could be made in that world, courtesy of legions of robots.
安德森:我想现在很多难以盈利的商品和服务 在那样的世界中, 都可以借助大量的机器人来实现。
【289】EM: Yeah.
马斯克:是的。
【290】It will be a world of abundance.
这样的世界资源富足
【291】The only scarcity that will exist in the future is that which we decide to create ourselves as humans.
在未来唯一可能缺少的东西, 可能就是我们作为人类自己创造的东西。
【292】CA: OK.
安德森:好的。
【293】So AI is allowing us to imagine a differently powered economy that will create this abundance.
所以人工智能让我们 可以用一种不同的方式发展经济, 并以此创造大量的资源,
【294】What are you most worried about going wrong?
对此,你最担心它会在什么地方上出错？
【295】EM: Well, like I said, AI and robotics will bring out what might be termed the age of abundance.
马斯克:正如我所说,人工智能和机器人 将为我们带来所谓的“富足的时代”,
【296】Other people have used this word, and that this is my prediction: it will be an age of abundance for everyone.
其他人也用过这个词。 我的预言是: 这将是一个人人都会生活富足的时代,
【297】But I guess there's ...
但我想
【298】The dangers would be the artificial general intelligence or digital superintelligence decouples from a collective human will and goes in the direction that for some reason we don't like.
危险会来自于强人工智能, 以及数字超级智能与人类意志脱钩, 并且由于某种原因向我们讨厌的方向发展。
【299】Whatever direction it might go.
不论它朝什么方向发展,
【300】You know, that's sort of the idea behind Neuralink, is to try to more tightly couple collective human world to digital superintelligence.
Neuralink项目就是为了解决这个问题, 即尝试着将人类世界更紧密地 与数字超级智能结合起来。
【301】And also along the way solve a lot of brain injuries and spinal injuries and that kind of thing.
在这一过程中解决许多脑损伤、脊柱损伤 以及其他相关的问题,
【302】So even if it doesn't succeed in the greater goal, I think it will succeed in the goal of alleviating brain and spine damage.
因此即使这个更大的目标没有实现, 我认为它也可以成功实现 减轻大脑、脊椎损伤这一目标。
【303】CA: So the spirit there is that if we're going to make these AIs that are so vastly intelligent, we ought to be wired directly to them so that we ourselves can have those superpowers more directly.
安德森:所以这个项目的理念就是 如果我们要打造这些高智慧的人工智能, 那么我们就应该直接与它们相连, 这样我们就可以直接拥有这些超能力,
【304】But that doesn't seem to avoid the risk that those superpowers might ...
但这似乎并不能避免这些超能力的风险,
【305】turn ugly in unintended ways.
并且会以意想不到的方式恶化。
【306】EM: I think it's a risk, I agree.
马斯克:同意,我觉得这是一个风险。
【307】I'm not saying that I have some certain answer to that risk.
我并不是说我对于 这种风险已经有了确定的答案,
【308】I'm just saying like maybe one of the things that would be good for ensuring that the future is one that we want is to more tightly couple the collective human world to digital intelligence.
我只是说, 也许有一件我们可以做的事情, 可以确保我们有一个想要的未来, 那就是更加紧密地 将人类世界与数字智能结合起来。
【309】The issue that we face here is that we are already a cyborg, if you think about it.
我们面对的问题是: 我们已经是一个半机械人了, 你想一想
【310】The computers are an extension of ourselves.
计算机就是我们自身的延伸,
【311】And when we die, we have, like, a digital ghost.
我们死后,我们有一个数字化的幽灵,
【312】You know, all of our text messages and social media, emails.
也就是我们所有的短信、社交媒体、电子邮件。
【313】And it's quite eerie actually, when someone dies but everything online is still there.
这实际上很可怕, 当一个人死后, 你网上的一切东西都还留着,
【314】But you say like, what's the limitation?
但你说它的限制是什么？
【315】What is it that inhibits a human-machine symbiosis?
是什么抑制了人机共生？
【316】It's the data rate.
是数据速率。
【317】When you communicate, especially with a phone, you're moving your thumbs very slowly.
当你在进行交流时,特别是在使用电话时, 你的拇指动起来很慢,
【318】So you're like moving your two little meat sticks at a rate that's maybe 10 bits per second, optimistically, 100 bits per second.
你就像在移动你的两根小肉棒, 速率可能是每秒 10 比特, 乐观地说,是每秒 100 比特,
【319】And computers are communicating at the gigabyte level and beyond.
而计算机则以十亿字节 甚至更高的速度进行通信。
【320】CA: Have you seen evidence that the technology is actually working, that you've got a richer, sort of, higher bandwidth connection, if you like, between like external electronics and a brain than has been possible before?
安德森:你有没有这种技术正在发挥作用的证据, 使你获得了更多的更高带宽的连接, 从而使得大脑与外部电子设备的连接, 比以前具有更大的可能性？
【321】EM: Yeah.
马斯克:有的。
【322】I mean, the fundamental principles of reading neurons, sort of doing read-write on neurons with tiny electrodes, have been demonstrated for decades.
读取神经元的基本原理, 用微小的电极对神经元进行读写, 几十年前就已经证实可行,
【323】So it's not like the concept is new.
所以这并不是什么新概念,
【324】The problem is that there is no product that works well that you can go and buy.
可问题是没有一种产品可以取得很好的效果, 你根本购买不到好的产品,
【325】So it's all sort of, in research labs.
这些都是在实验室里才能实现,
【326】And it's like some cords sticking out of your head.
一些电线连在你的头上。
【327】And it's quite gruesome, and it's really ...
这很可怕,而且真的……
【328】There's no good product that actually does a good job and is high-bandwidth and safe and something actually that you could buy and would want to buy.
没有一款运行效果不错, 同时带宽还高,使用安全, 你可以买的并且想买的产品,
【329】But the way to think of the Neuralink device is kind of like a Fitbit or an Apple Watch.
但对于Neuralink设备的看待方式, 有点像Fitbit或苹果手表,
【330】That's where we take out sort of a small section of skull about the size of a quarter, replace that with what, in many ways really is very much like a Fitbit, Apple Watch or some kind of smart watch thing.
我们会取下一小块头骨, 大概是25美分硬币的大小, 之后用这个设备代替这块头骨, 在很多方面,这个设备都很像Fitbit和苹果手表, 或者其他智能手表之类的设备,
【331】But with tiny, tiny wires, very, very tiny wires.
但是是用很细很细的电线, 非常非常细小的电线。
【332】Wires so tiny, it's hard to even see them.
电线真的很细小,你甚至很难看到它们,
【333】And it's very important to have very tiny wires so that when they're implanted, they don't damage the brain.
这种细线非常重要, 这样当它们被植入时就不会对大脑造成损伤。
【334】CA: How far are you from putting these into humans?
安德森:你们还需要多久可以把它植入人体？
【335】EM: Well, we have put in our FDA application to aspirationally do the first human implant this year.
马斯克:我们已经 向食品与药品管理署提交了申请, 我们非常希望今年进行第一次人体植入手术。
【336】CA: The first uses will be for neurological injuries of different kinds.
安德森:第一个用途是修复不同程度的脑损伤,
【337】But rolling the clock forward and imagining when people are actually using these for their own enhancement, let's say, and for the enhancement of the world, how clear are you in your mind as to what it will feel like to have one of these inside your head?
让我们展望一下未来, 想象一下人们会在什么时候使用这些设备, 来提升他们自己, 让世界进步, 对于这个事情, 当你的脑袋中有这样的东西会有什么感觉呢？
【338】EM: Well, I do want to emphasize we're at an early stage.
马斯克:我想强调的是我们目前还在早期阶段,
【339】And so it really will be many years before we have anything approximating a high-bandwidth neural interface that allows for AI-human symbiosis.
所以我们真的还需要很多年 才能做出类似于高带宽脑机接口的设备, 从而实现人工智能与人类共生,
【340】For many years, we will just be solving brain injuries and spinal injuries.
我们会花很多年 来研究脑损伤和脊髓损伤的问题。
【341】For probably a decade.
大概十年吧,
【342】This is not something that will suddenly one day it will have this incredible sort of whole brain interface.
并不会突然在某一天, 这种无比神奇的脑机接口就会突然出现,
【343】It's going to be, like I said, at least a decade of really just solving brain injuries and spinal injuries.
就像我说的 我们至少要花十年的时间来解决 脑损伤和脊柱损伤的问题。
【344】And really, I think you can solve a very wide range of brain injuries, including severe depression, morbid obesity, sleep, potentially schizophrenia, like, a lot of things that cause great stress to people.
我认为可以解决很多种类的脑损伤, 包括重度抑郁、肥胖症、一些睡眠问题, 潜在的精神分裂症, 以及很多对人造成巨大压力的病症,
【345】Restoring memory in older people.
还可以恢复老年人的记忆。
【346】CA: If you can pull that off, that's the app I will sign up for.
安德森:如果你能做出这个东西, 我就会注册这个应用。
【347】EM: Absolutely.
马斯克:当然。
【348】CA: Please hurry. (Laughs) EM: I mean, the emails that we get at Neuralink are heartbreaking.
安德森:请尽快。 （笑声） 马斯克:Neuralink项目收到的邮件令人心碎,
【349】I mean, they'll send us just tragic, you know, where someone was sort of, in the prime of life and they had an accident on a motorcycle and someone who's 25, you know, can't even feed themselves.
人们会发来凄惨的故事, 有人正值壮年之际, 却不幸在骑摩托车时发生了车祸, 有一个25岁的人甚至不能养活自己,
【350】And this is something we could fix.
我们可以解决这样的问题。
【351】CA: But you have said that AI is one of the things you're most worried about and that Neuralink may be one of the ways where we can keep abreast of it.
安德森:但你曾说 人工智能是你最担心的事情之一, Nuralink项目可能是解决这个问题的一条出路, 从而使我们可以跟上人工智能发展的步伐。
【352】EM: Yeah, there's the short-term thing, which I think is helpful on an individual human level with injuries.
马斯克:是的,短期来看, 我认为这个项目有助于受伤的人类个体恢复,
【353】And then the long-term thing is an attempt to address the civilizational risk of AI by bringing digital intelligence and biological intelligence closer together.
而从长期来看, 它会尝试着解决人工智能带给人类文明的风险, 即通过将数字智能, 与生物智能更紧密地结合在一起。
【354】I mean, if you think of how the brain works today, there are really two layers to the brain.
你想一想现今大脑的工作机制, 大脑实际上有两层,
【355】There's the limbic system and the cortex.
即大脑边缘系统和大脑皮层。
【356】You've got the kind of, animal brain where - it's kind of like the fun part, really.
你有一种动物的大脑, 这个东西真的很有意思。
【357】CA: It's where most of Twitter operates, by the way.
安德森:顺便说一句, 这里也是产出推文的地方,
【358】EM: I think Tim Urban said, we're like somebody, you know, stuck a computer on a monkey.
马斯克:我记得Tim Urban说, 我们人类就像把电脑塞到了猴子身上,
【359】You know, so we're like, if you gave a monkey a computer, that's our cortex.
所以我们就像……如果你给猴子一台电脑, 这个电脑就是我们的大脑皮层,
【360】But we still have a lot of monkey instincts.
但我们依然还有许多猴子的本能,
【361】Which we then try to rationalize as, no, it's not a monkey instinct.
我们会试着把一些行为合理化 否认这不是猴子的本能,
【362】It's something more important than that.
而是比它更重要的事情,
【363】But it's often just really a monkey instinct.
但这常常真的是猴子的本能举动。
【364】We're just monkeys with a computer stuck in our brain.
我们只是脑子里装着电脑的猴子,
【365】But even though the cortex is sort of the smart, or the intelligent part of the brain, the thinking part of the brain,
即使大脑皮层是 大脑中聪明或者说是智能的部分, 是大脑中思考的区域,
【366】I've not yet met anyone who wants to delete their limbic system or their cortex.
我还没有见过 有人想要去掉他们的大脑边缘系统, 或者是他们的大脑皮层。
【367】They're quite happy having both.
他们对于同时拥有两者都非常满意,
【368】Everyone wants both parts of their brain.
每个人都想要大脑中的两个部分,
【369】And people really want their phones and their computers, which are really the tertiary, the third part of your intelligence.
人们真的想要他们的手机和电脑, 而这实际上是你智力的第三部分。
【370】It's just that it's ...
它就是……
【371】Like the bandwidth, the rate of communication with that tertiary layer is slow.
就像宽带, 与第三层的通信速率很慢,
【372】And it's just a very tiny straw to this tertiary layer.
这只是第三层的一根细小的管子,
【373】And we want to make that tiny straw a big highway.
我们想把这个小管子变成一条大公路,
【374】And I'm definitely not saying that this is going to solve everything.
我绝不是说这会解决所有的问题,
【375】Or this is you know, it's the only thing - it's something that might be helpful.
或者说这是唯一的…… 这个东西可能会有所帮助,
【376】And worst-case scenario, I think we solve some important brain injury, spinal injury issues, and that's still a great outcome.
在最坏的情况下, 我想我们解决了一些重要的脑损伤问题, 脊椎损伤问题,那么这依然是一个很好的结果。
【377】CA: Best-case scenario, we may discover new human possibility, telepathy, you've spoken of, in a way, a connection with a loved one, you know, full memory and much faster thought processing maybe.
安德森:在最好的情况下, 我们可能发现 人类发展新的可能性,实现心灵感应。 你说过,从某种程度上,和你所爱之人相连, 拥有全部的记忆和更快的思维处理,
【378】All these things.
这一切的一切,
【379】It's very cool.
都很酷。
【380】If AI were to take down Earth, we need a plan B.
如果人工智能要摧毁地球, 我们需要一个备用计划。
【381】Let's shift our attention to space.
让我们把注意力转移到太空。
【382】We spoke last time at TED about reusability, and you had just demonstrated that spectacularly for the first time.
上次在TED我们谈到了可复用性, 而你也已经首次展示了这壮观的一幕。
【383】Since then, you've gone on to build this monster rocket, Starship, which kind of changes the rules of the game in spectacular ways.
从那之后,你继续打造这个巨大的火箭 星舰, 这极大改变了这个领域的游戏规则,
【384】Tell us about Starship.
和我们讲一讲星舰吧。
【385】EM: Starship is extremely fundamental.
马斯克:星舰非常重要,
【386】So the holy grail of rocketry or space transport is full and rapid reusability.
在太空运输中人们一直在追求的 就是快速及完全可复用性,
【387】This has never been achieved.
这从来都没有实现过。
【388】The closest that anything has come is our Falcon 9 rocket, where we are able to recover the first stage, the boost stage, which is probably about 60 percent of the cost of the vehicle of the whole launch, maybe 70 percent.
最接近这一目标的是我们的猎鹰9号火箭, 我们可以回收第一级推进火箭, 大概是航天器成本的60%, 对于整个发射过程的成本占到大约70%。
【389】And we've now done that over a hundred times.
我们已经成功实现了一百多次,
