外刊听读| 经济学人 “英大利”

Britaly

“英大利”

The low-growth gang

低增长国家

What a comparison between Britain and Italy reveals

英国和意大利之间的对比揭示了什么 

1 BRITAIN HAS long thought of itself as being part of the same economic club as America, France or Germany. It is, after all, the third-biggest economy in the West. So it is a mark of the glum mood in the country that commentators are now drawing comparisons to Italy instead—a place that, aside from la dolce vita, is known for interminable political drama, economic stagnation and nervous bond markets. The two countries’ economies and fiscal positions differ considerably, not least because Italy uses the euro and does not have its own monetary policy. A comparison is revealing nonetheless.  

长期以来，英国一直认为自己与美国、法国或德国是同一个经济俱乐部的成员。毕竟，它是西方第三大经济体。因此，现在评论家们将其与意大利相提并论是该国悲观情绪的一个标志--除了奢华无忧的生活之外，意大利还以无休止的政治戏剧、经济停滞和紧张的债券市场而闻名。这两个国家的经济和财政状况有很大的不同，尤其是因为意大利使用欧元，没有自己的货币政策。然而，把它们比较一下还是很有意义的。 

2 Both Britain and Italy have an economic-growth problem that stems from underinvestment and lacklustre productivity, which in turn reflects deep-rooted structural factors. But Italy’s disease is considerably more advanced. Its living standards, measured by real GDP per person, have not risen since 2000. That in part reflects an ageing population. Italy has 37 old people for every 100 of working age, compared with 30 in Britain and 26 in America. Its courts and public administrators make decisions at glacial speed, which impedes business. A thicket of regulations is one reason why the country’s many small, often family-run firms do not expand. 

英国和意大利都有经济增长的问题，源于投资不足和生产力低下，而这又反映了根深蒂固的结构性因素。但意大利的病症要严重得多。它的生活水平，以实际人均GDP衡量，自2000年以来一直没有上升。这在一定程度上反映了人口老龄化。意大利每100个适龄工作人口对应37个老人，而英国是30个，美国是26个。意大利的法院和公共管理部门以冰山移动的速度作出决定，其缓慢决策阻碍了商业发展。纷繁复杂的法规是该国许多小型、通常是家族经营的公司无法扩张的原因之一。 

3 Britain’s decline is at an earlier stage. GDP per person is still growing, although it has fallen behind America and Germany since the mid-2000s. Impeded credit flows after the financial crisis, restrictive planning rules and a poorly skilled workforce mean that investment and productivity growth is nearly as low as in Italy (see chart 1). Investment as a share of GDP was 18% in 2019, below 21-23% in America, France and Germany, but in line with that in Italy (see chart 2). All of this has dire consequences for living standards in the future.  

英国的衰退处于早期阶段。人均国内生产总值仍在增长，尽管在21世纪前十年的中期以来，它已落后于美国和德国。金融危机后信贷流动受阻，限制性的规划制度和技能低下的劳动力意味着投资和生产力增长几乎和意大利一样低（见图1）。2019年投资占GDP的比例为18%，低于美国、法国和德国的21-23%，与意大利的比例一致（见图2）。所有这些都对未来的生活水平产生了可怕的后果。  

4 The malaise is apparent in stockmarkets, too. As companies elsewhere, chiefly in America and China, have innovated and swelled, Britain’s stockmarket has shrunk in importance. Its share of global market capitalisation has fallen from 8% to 3% over the past 20 years. Its importance in Europe’s total market value has declined, too. Italy’s share of the world’s stockmarket was never as big as Britain’s was, but it has shrunk at a similar pace. 

这种萎靡不振在股票市场上也很明显。随着其他地方的公司，主要是美国和中国的公司的创新和扩张，英国股票市场的重要性已经萎缩。在过去的20年里，它在全球市场资本化中的份额已经从8%下降到3%。它在欧洲总市场价值中的重要性也在下降。意大利在世界股市中的份额从未像英国那样大，但它以类似的速度萎缩。 

5 Both countries have serious regional imbalances. In Italy, the richer manufacturing-oriented north has long left the south in the dust. In 2019 GDP per person in the south was about half of that in the north. Britain is also unbalanced, with output per worker in London around 70% higher than that in the north-east of England. It is possible to construct lots of other measures of regional inequality, depending on the size of the region and the measure of income used. In 2019 Philip McCann, then an economist at the University of Sheffield, put together 28 of them for 30 of the mostly rich members of the OECD. He concluded that Britain was the most geographically unequal large advanced country, with Italy a close second.

 

这两个国家都有严重的地区不平衡现象。在意大利，以制造业为导向的较富裕的北部地区早已将南部地区甩在身后。2019年，南方的人均GDP约为北方的一半。英国也是不平衡的，伦敦的每个工人的产出比英格兰东北部高出约70%。还有很多其他标准来衡量区域不平衡，比如将区域大小和可支配收入作为衡量标准。2019年，时任谢菲尔德大学经济学家的菲利普-麦肯为经合组织的30个主要富裕成员汇总了其中的28个。他得出结论，英国是地理上最不平等的大型先进国家，意大利紧随其后。  

6 When it comes to the countries’ financing positions, however, the picture is more complex. Italy has high net public debt, of around 138% of GDP in 2021. Its slow economic growth means that those debts risk becoming unsustainable. Moreover, it is a member of a currency union with shared monetary policy, which means it cannot benefit from a weaker currency to boost its economy or prevent a run on its public debt. Its failure to implement reforms, revive growth and lighten its debt burden means that investors tend to worry about its creditworthiness. As a result, they demand a premium, or a “spread”, to hold Italian debt over safer German Bunds. Over the years, fears about spreads widening have led the European Central Bank to devise various schemes to buy government bonds in times of trouble.  

然而，当涉及到各国的融资状况时，情况就比较复杂了。意大利的公共债务净额很高，在2021年约为GDP的138%。其缓慢的经济增长意味着这些债务有可能变得难以为继。此外，它是一个货币联盟（欧盟）的成员，有共同的货币政策，这意味着它不能从较弱的货币中受益，以促进其经济或防止其公共债务被挤兑。它未能实施改革、恢复增长和减轻债务负担，这意味着投资者容易担心其信用度。因此，他们要求获得溢价，即 "利差"，以持有意大利债券而不是更安全的德国债券。多年来，对利差扩大的担心导致欧洲中央银行制定了各种计划，以在困难时期购买政府债券。 

7 Britain has far lower public debt, of 85% of GDP. It has its own currency and a central bank that sets interest rates for the country alone. The government’s mindless mini-budget jolted investors into expecting higher inflation, and therefore higher interest rates from the Bank of England, which pushed up government-bond yields. It also prompted an emergency intervention by the bank to stop a fire-sale of assets by pension funds. The market turmoil has prompted the government to reverse its plans, rather as bond markets forced Italy’s governments to change course in 2011 and 2018. But few investors worry that Britain will default on its debts. 

英国的公共债务要低得多，占GDP的85%。它有自己的货币和一个为该国单独制定利率的中央银行。政府盲目的“迷你预算”计划使投资者感到震惊，他们预期通货膨胀率会上升，因此英格兰银行会提高利率，这推高了政府债券的收益。这也促使英国央行进行紧急干预，以阻止火速抛售养老金资产的行为。市场动荡促使政府推翻其计划，就像债券市场在2011年和2018年迫使意大利政府改变方向一样。但很少有投资者担心英国会债务违约。

 

The kindness of strangers

陌生人的善意 

8 Britain relies more on external financing than Italy does, however. According to the IMF, it is likely to run a current account deficit of nearly 5% of GDP this year, meaning that it is a net borrower from abroad. (Italy’s deficit is expected to be 0.2%.) That means financing conditions rely in part on the appetite of foreign investors for domestic assets. And the less the country does to fix its growth problem, the less attractive it becomes for investment. Political paralysis has consequences.

英国比意大利更依赖外部融资。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，英国如今的财政赤字可能接近GDP的5%，这意味着英国是一个海外净借款国。(意大利的赤字预计为0.2%。）还意味着融资条件部分取决于外国投资者对国内资产的胃口。而英国在解决其增长问题方面做得越少，对投资的吸引力就越小。政治瘫痪是有后果的。