雅思口语9分带你阅读《经济学人》：Europe faces an endu...
Europe faces an enduring crisis of energy and geopolitics
This will weaken it and threaten its global position
If you ask Europe’s friends around the world what they think of the old continent’s prospects they often respond with two emotions. One is admiration. In the struggle to help Ukraine and resist Russian aggression, Europe has displayed unity, grit and a principled willingness to bear enormous costs. But the second is alarm. A brutal economic squeeze will pose a test of Europe’s resilience in 2023 and beyond. There is a growing fear that the recasting of the global energy system, American economic populism and geopolitical rifts threaten the long-run competitiveness of the European Union and non-members, including Britain. It is not just the continent’s prosperity that is at risk, the health of the transatlantic alliance is, too.
如果你问欧洲那些遍及世界各地朋友：他们如何看待当前欧陆大地的前景，他们通常表现出两种情绪。第一种是敬佩。在协助乌克兰抵抗俄罗斯入侵中，欧洲表现出了团结、勇气和承担巨大代价的原则性意愿。第二种是忧虑。残酷的经济紧缩将在2023年及以后对欧洲经济韧性构成考验。人们越来越担心，全球能源体系重塑、美国的经济民粹主义和地缘政治分歧会威胁到欧盟和包括英国在内的非欧盟成员国的长期竞争力。不仅欧洲大陆的繁荣受到威胁，跨大西洋联盟的运行也受到威胁。
Continent：大陆；洲；欧洲大陆；
Prospect：前景；前途；预期；展望
Aggression：侵略；侵犯
economic squeeze：经济紧缩
Don’t be fooled by the rush of good news from Europe in the past few weeks. Energy prices are down from the summer and a run of good weather means that gas storage is nearly full. But the energy crisis still poses dangers. Gas prices are six times higher than their long-run average. On November 22nd Russia threatened to throttle the last operational pipeline to Europe, even as missile attacks caused emergency power cuts across Ukraine. Europe’s gas storage will need to be refilled once again in 2023, this time without any piped Russian gas whatsoever.
不要被过去几周欧洲传来的一连串好消息所迷惑。能源价格从夏季开始下降，而连续温暖天气意味着天然气储备接近饱和。但能源危机仍然存在。天然气价格是以往平均价格的六倍。11月22日，俄罗斯威胁要切断通往欧洲的最后一条输油管，尽管导弹袭击导致乌克兰全境紧急断电。到2023年，欧洲的天然气储藏库将需要再次补充，届时，将没有任何来自俄罗斯管道的天然气。
a run of….：一连串；一系列
throttle：阻挡；压制；掐死
pipeline ：天然气管道；管线
Vladimir Putin’s energy weapon will exact a toll beyond Ukraine. Our modelling suggests that, in a normal winter, a 10% rise in real energy prices is associated with a 0.6% increase in deaths. Hence the energy crunch this year could cause over 100,000 extra deaths of elderly people across Europe. If so, Mr Putin’s energy weapon could take more lives outside Ukraine than his artillery, missiles and drones do directly within it. That is one more reason why Ukraine’s resistance to Russia is Europe’s fight, too.
弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)的能源武器将让除乌克兰以外国家付出代价。我们的模型表明：正常的冬季，能源价格如果上涨10%，死亡人数就会增加0.6%。因此，今年的能源危机可能会导致整个欧洲额外10万老年人死亡。这样以来的话，普京的能源武器在乌克兰境外夺走的生命可能比俄罗斯的火炮、导弹和无人机直接夺走的生命还要多。这也是为什么乌克兰、欧洲齐心协力同俄罗斯抗争的另一个原因。
exact a toll ：付出代价
artillery：火炮；大炮
The war is also creating financial vulnerabilities. Energy inflation is spilling over into the rest of Europe’s economy, creating an acute dilemma for the European Central Bank. It needs to raise interest rates to control prices. But if it goes too far it could destabilise the euro zone’s weaker members, not least indebted Italy.
俄乌战争还造成了金融方面脆弱性。能源通胀正蔓延到欧洲其他经济领域，令欧洲央行(ECB)陷入困境。欧洲央行需要提高利率来控制价格。但如果太操之过急，可能会破坏欧元区较弱成员国的稳定，尤其是负债累累的意大利。
Even as the energy crisis rages, the war has exposed a vulnerability in Europe’s business model. Too many of Europe’s industrial firms, especially German ones, have relied on abundant energy inputs from Russia.
即使此前能源危机肆虐，这场战争也暴露了欧洲商业模式的脆弱性。欧洲的许多工业企业，尤其是德国企业，都过多依赖来自俄罗斯的能源。
