The next 50 years in space

未来50年内的太空业

A new age of space exploration is beginning

太空探索的新时代开始了

It will need the rule of law and a system of arms control to thrive

它需要法治和军备控制体系才能繁荣发展

Jul 18th 2019 

THE MOMENT when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.

50年前，尼尔·阿姆斯特朗(Neil Armstrong)踏上月球的那一刻，在全世界激起了敬畏、自豪和惊奇。本刊认为:“从今天起，人类可以到宇宙中任何他想去的地方，人类的智慧和他的意志会设法达成人类的目标……到任何行星上，人类现在肯定是迟早要去的。”“但事实并非如此。登月是一种反常现象，实现这一目标本身并非有目的，而是一种表明美国非凡能力的手段。但登月项目一旦成功，就不需要再尝试。自1972年以来，只有571人进入轨道，没有人比来自芝加哥的得梅因更深入地探索太空。

词汇

Awe/敬畏，惊叹

Ingenuity/心灵手巧，独创性

Contrive/（不顾困难而）设法做到

Aberration/反常现象，异常行为；偏离

as an end/作为一个目的

The next 50 years will look very different (see Science section). Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.

未来的50年将会大不相同（见本期科技/科学栏目）。不断下降的成本、新的技术、中国和印度的雄心，以及新一代的企业家，都预示着一个大胆的太空发展时代的到来。几乎可以肯定的是，它将包括为富裕国家提供旅游服务，为所有人提供更好的通讯网络;从长远来看，这可能涉及矿产开发，甚至是大规模运输。太空将越来越像地球的延伸——一个公司和个人户的舞台，而不仅仅是政府所有。但是为了实现这一承诺，世界需要建立一套管理太空的法律体系——无论是在和平时期，还是在战争时期。

词汇

Arena/舞台；竞技场

The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.

到目前为止，空间发展的重点一直是使得太空之下的一些活动变得更加便捷-——主要是卫星通讯的广播和导航。现在有两件事正在改变。首先，地缘政治正在推动一股将人类送出近地轨道浅滩的新潮流。中国计划到2035年将人类送上月球。唐纳德·特朗普总统的政府希望美国人在2024年前重返月球。不断下降的成本使得这种炫耀比以前更实惠。阿波罗计划耗资数千亿美元(以今天的货币计算)。现在票价高达数百亿美元。

Second, the private sector has come of age. Between 1958 and 2009 almost all of the spending in space was by state agencies, mainly NASA and the Pentagon. In the past decade private investment has risen to an annual average of $2bn a year, or 15% of the total, and it is set to increase further. SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket firm, made 21 successful satellite launches last year and is valued at $33bn. Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, sells off $1bn-worth of his shares in the company each year to pay for Blue Origin, a space venture. Virgin Galactic plans to go public this year at a valuation of $1.5bn. As well as capital and ideas, the private sector provides much greater efficiency. According to NASA, developing SpaceX’s Falcon rockets would have cost the agency $4bn; it cost SpaceX a tenth of that.

其次，私营部门已经成熟。从1958年到2009年，几乎所有的太空开支都由国家机构承担，主要是NASA和五角大楼。在过去的十年里，私人投资已经上升到每年20亿美元的平均水平，占总投资的15%，而且还将继续增长。埃隆•马斯克(Elon Musk)的火箭公司SpaceX去年成功发射了21颗卫星，估值330亿美元。亚马逊(Amazon)创始人杰夫•贝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)每年出售价值10亿美元的公司股票，以支付太空企业蓝色起源(Blue Origin)的投资。维珍银河计划今年上市，估值为15亿美元。除了资本和理念，私营部门还提供了更高的效率。美国宇航局表示，开发SpaceX的猎鹰火箭将花费他们机构40亿美元;而SpaceX只花了他的十分之一。

Two new commercial models exist or are within reach: the big business of launching and maintaining swarms of communications satellites in low orbits and the niche one of tourism for the rich. The coming year will almost certainly see Virgin and Blue Origin flying passengers on sub-orbital excursions that offer the thrill of weightlessness and a view of the curved edge of Earth against the black sky of space. Virgin claims it might carry almost 1,000 wealthy adventurers a year by 2022. SpaceX is developing a reusable “Starship” larger and much more capable than its Falcons. Yusaku Maezawa, a Japanese fashion mogul, has made a down-payment for a Starship trip around the Moon; he intends to go with a crew of artists as early as 2023.

两种新的商业模式已经存在或即将实现:发射和维护大量低轨道通信卫星的大业务，以及面向富人的旅游业。在未来的一年里，维珍航空和蓝色起源航空公司几乎肯定会让乘客进行亚轨道旅行，体验失重的快感，还能看到地球弯曲的边缘与太空黑色天空的对比。维珍航空声称，到2022年，该公司每年可能会接纳近1000名富有的冒险家。SpaceX正在开发一艘可重复使用的“星际飞船”，它比猎鹰号更大，能力也更强。日本时尚巨头前泽友松(Yusaku Maezawa)已经为一艘环绕月球的星际飞船支付了首付款;他打算最早在2023年和一群艺术家一起去。

词汇

Swarm/一大群；蜂群

Excursion/偏移；远足；短程旅行

Thrill/激动；震颤；紧张；兴奋

Mogul/大亨，有权势的人

Such possibilities could see the annual revenues of the space industry double to $800bn by 2030, according to UBS, a bank. Still further in the future, space development could remake how humanity lives. Mr Musk hopes to send settlers to Mars. Mr Bezos, the richest man in the world, wants to see millions of people making a living on space stations, perhaps before Armstrong’s footprint marks its centenary.

根据瑞士联合银行(UBS)的数据，到2030年，这些可能性可能使航天产业的年收入翻一番，达到8000亿美元。在更遥远的未来，太空发展可能重塑人类的生活方式。马斯克希望将定居者送往火星。贝佐斯是世界上最富有的人，他希望看到数百万人在空间站上谋生，也许是在阿姆斯特朗的足迹纪念100周年之前。

At a time when Earth faces grim news on climate change, slow growth and fraught politics, space might seem to offer a surprising reason for optimism. But it is neither a panacea nor a bolthole. And to realise its promise, a big problem has to be resolved and a dangerous risk avoided. The big problem is developing the rule of law (see International section). The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 declares space to be “the province of all mankind” and forbids claims of sovereignty. That leaves lots of room for interpretation. America says private firms can develop space-based resources; international law is ambiguous.

在地球面临气候变化、经济增长缓慢和充斥着焦虑的政治问题之际，太空似乎提供了一个令人意外的被看好的出路。但它既不是万灵药，也不是避难所。为了实现移居太空的承诺，人们必须解决一个大问题以及避免一个大风险。这个大问题便是是法规的延申和发展(见国际部分)。1967年的《外层空间条约》(Outer Space Treaty)宣布太空为“全人类的领土”，并禁止对太空提出主权要求。这给解释留下了很大的空间。美国说私营公司可以开发太空资源;国际法是模棱两可的。

词汇

Fraught/充满……的；焦虑的，担心的

Panacea/灵丹妙药；万能药

Bolthole/避难处

Sovereignty/主权；主权国家

Who would have the best claim to use the ice at the poles of the Moon for life support? Should Martian settlers be allowed to do what they like to the environment? Who is liable for satellite collisions? Space is already crowded—over 2,000 satellites are in orbit and NASA tracks over 500,000 individual pieces of debris hurtling at velocities of over 27,000km an hour.

谁最有资格使用月球两极的冰来供养生命?火星移民应该被允许对环境做他们喜欢做的事情吗?谁对卫星碰撞负责?太空已经拥挤不堪——2000多颗卫星在轨道上运行，美国宇航局跟踪的50多万颗碎片以每小时2.7万公里的速度飞驰。

词汇

Liable/有责任的，有义务的

Debris/碎片，残骸

Hurtle/急飞，猛烈碰撞，猛掷

Such uncertainties magnify the dangerous risk: the use of force in space. America’s unparalleled ability to project force on Earth depends on its extensive array of satellites. Other nations, knowing this, have built anti-satellite weapons, as America has itself (see Briefing). And military activity in space has no well-tested protocols or rules of engagement.

这些不确定性放大了危险的风险:在太空使用武力。美国在地球上投射军力的无与伦比的能力依赖于其广泛的卫星阵列。其他国家知道这一点，已经制造了反卫星武器，正如美国自己所做的那样（见本期简报）。太空军事活动也没有经过良好测试的协议或交战规则。

词汇

Magnify/ 放大

Unparalleled/无比的；无双的；空前未有的

Protocol/协议；草案

America, China and India are rapidly increasing their destructive capabilities: blinding military satellites with lasers, jamming their signals to Earth or even blowing them up, causing debris to scatter across the cosmos. They are also turning their armed forces spaceward. Mr Trump plans to set up a Space Force, the first new branch of the armed forces since the air force was created in 1947. On the eve of the annual Bastille Day military parade on July 14th Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, also announced the formation of a new space command.

美国、中国和印度正在迅速增强它们的破坏能力:用激光使军用卫星致盲，干扰它们向地球发出的信号，甚至炸毁它们，导致碎片散落在宇宙各处。他们还将他们的武装力量转向太空。特朗普计划建立一支太空部队，这是自1947年美国空军成立以来，第一支新的武装部队。7月14日，在每年一度的巴士底日阅兵式前夕，法国总统埃马纽埃尔•马克龙也宣布成立一个新的太空司令部。

词汇

Jam/使堵塞；挤进，使塞满；混杂；压碎

In Heaven as it is on Earth

在天上，如同在地上

It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soyabeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems.

把太空宣传为浪漫的狂野西部是错误的，这是一个无政府主义的边疆，在那里人类可以摆脱束缚，重新发现自己的命运。空间要实现其承诺，就需要治理。在全球无法就钢筋和大豆的陆上贸易规则达成一致之际，这似乎是个大问题。但是，如果没有它，地球之外的一切潜力充其量只能再等50年才能实现。在最坏的情况下，太空可能会增加地球的问题。

词汇

Anarchic/无政府的；无政府主义的

Fetter/束缚，禁锢