Turning inward

Why the old development strategy of import substitution has gained a new lease of life

FOR THE past quarter-century, growth came so easily to the developing world that it can be hard to remember it was ever otherwise. Fuelled by globalisation, real GDP per person in emerging economiesmore than doubled from 1995 to 2019, in purchasing-power-parity terms. In advanced countries, by contrast, it grew by only 44%. The burst of growth consigned to the scrapheap decades’ worth of arguments about whether and how poor countries could catch up with rich ones. But explosive trade growth has ended, and the industrialised world is turning inward. Some governments are therefore dusting off old ideas. Among them is “import-substituting industrialisation” (ISI), a strategy that seeks to develop industrial capacity by shielding domestic producers from foreign competition.Many countries may feel they have little choice but to give the idea a try, but as the conditions that might allow it to succeed are generally absent in the poorest of economies, the revival seems doomed to fail.

emerging economy：新型经济体

purchasing-power-parity （PPP）购买力平价：是根据各国不同的价格水平计算出来的货币之间的等值系数。

 Scrapheap  /ˈskræphiːp/ n. 废物堆，废料堆

doom  /duːm/  名词：死亡；毁灭；厄运；劫数 •to meet your doom 死亡

动词：~ sb/sth (to sth) 使…注定失败（或遭殃、死亡等）•The plan was doomed to failure . 这个计划注定要失败。

习语：1. ˌdoom and ˈgloom /gloom and ˈdoom悲观失望；无望；前景暗淡 •Despite the obvious setbacks, it is not all doom and gloom for the England team. 尽管明显受挫，但对英格兰队来说绝非胜利无望。2. ˌprophet of ˈdoom /doom merchant末日预言者

Between 1990 and 2008, global trade as a share of GDP rose from 39% to 61%. This “hyperglobalisation”, as Martin Kessler and Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics dubbed it, facilitated rapid, broad-based economic expansion. After the late 1990s growth in incomes per head in nearly three-quarters of developing countries outpaced that in America, by an average of more than three percentage points a year. Global supply chains proliferated. Countries with a small industrial base, or none at all, could export manufactured goods by finding niches in production chains, following a shortcut to industrialisation.

Peterson Institute for International Economics：彼得森国际经济研究所

dub  /dʌb/  1.把…戏称为；给…起绰号•The Belgian actor Jean Claude Van Damme has been dubbed ‘Muscles from Brussels’. 比利时演员让•克劳德•范•达默被戏称为“布鲁塞尔的肌肉”。2. ~ sth (into sth)为（影片或电视节目）配音；译制•an American movie dubbed into Italian 用意大利语配音的美国影片  3.混声录制，混录（音乐）

facilitate  v. /fəˈsɪlɪteɪt/  促进；促使；使便利

broad-based 有广泛基础的；无限制的

Proliferate  v. /prəˈlɪfəreɪt/  迅速繁殖（或增殖）；猛增

Outplace  v. 安排新工作；取代；挤出；（网球比赛中）投球超越

Shortcut  n. 捷径；被切短的东西

The era of openness, however, is drawing to a close. The share of trade in world GDP fell after the global financial crisis; last year it was still below its 2008 peak. The level of world trade is forecast to fall by more than 9% this year. In America and Europe shortages of medical supplies and a souring relationship with China have rekindled interest in protecting domestic producers. But it is the biggest winners of hyperglobalisation, such as China and India, that are leading the way back to ISI. The share of foreign value-added in China’s exports fell by almost ten percentage points from 2005 to 2016; its government’s “Made in China 2025” campaign aims to make it self-sufficient in the production of many key goods.  In India, Narendra Modi, the prime minister, unveiled a campaign for self-reliance as part of his pandemic-recovery package in May.

rekindle  v. /ˌriːˈkɪndl/   使重新活跃；使复苏

Unveil  Vt. /ˌʌnˈveɪl/  

1.为…揭幕；揭开…上的覆盖物；拉开…的帷幔 •The Queen unveiled a plaque to mark the official opening of the hospital. 女王主持揭幕式，标志着医院正式启用。

2.（首次）展示，介绍，推出；将…公之于众 •They will be unveiling their new models at the Motor Show. 他们将在汽车大展上首次推出自己的新型汽车。

译文

FOR THE past quarter-century, growth came so easily to the developing world that it can be hard to remember it was ever otherwise. Fuelled by globalisation, real GDP per person in emerging economies more than doubled from 1995 to 2019, in purchasing-power-parity terms. In advanced countries, by contrast, it grew by only 44%. The burst of growth consigned to the scrapheap decades’ worth of arguments about whether and how poor countries could catch up with rich ones.

在过去的25年中，发展中国家经济迅速成长，以至于他们几乎难以记起以前情况并非如此。受经济全球化刺激，从购买力平价指数来看，1995年到2019年，新型经济体的人均真实GDP翻了一倍不止。相较之下，发达国家只增长44%。猛烈的增长使得几十年来关于穷国能否及如何赶上富国的争论意义归于零。但现在爆炸式国际贸易结束，工业化国家开始转向内向驱动。

But explosive trade growth has ended, and the industrialised world is turning inward. Some governments are therefore dusting off old ideas. Among them is “import-substituting industrialisation” (ISI), a strategy that seeks to develop industrial capacity by shielding domestic producers from foreign competition.Many countries may feel they have little choice but to give the idea a try, but as the conditions that might allow it to succeed are generally absent in the poorest of economies, the revival seems doomed to fail.

一些国家因此重新拿起“旧思想” 。其中一个是“替代进口工业化”（ISI），其策略是通过保护本国制造商免于外国竞争，以提高工业能力。很多国家感觉自身别无他法，只能求一线生机。但成功的前置条件似乎在一些极度贫穷的经济体中缺席，这些尝试注定失败。

Between 1990 and 2008, global trade as a share of GDP rose from 39% to 61%. This “hyperglobalisation”, as Martin Kessler and Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics dubbed it, facilitated rapid, broad-based economic expansion. After the late 1990s growth in incomes per head in nearly three-quarters of developing countries outpaced that in America, by an average of more than three percentage points a year. Global supply chains proliferated. Countries with a small industrial base, or none at all, could export manufactured goods by finding niches in production chains, following a shortcut to industrialisation.

1990-2008年之间，全球贸易占GDP的比例从39%增至61%。彼得森国际经济研究所的Martin Kessler 和 Arvind Subramanian 将之称为“超高全球化”，90年之后，75%的发展中国家人均收入增长水平增速以一年平均超过3个百分点的速度超过美国。全球供应链扩增。一个国家只参与一小块工业活动或者根本没有，也可以通过产品链上面的合适位置出口制造业产品，沿捷径通往工业化。

The era of openness, however, is drawing to a close. The share of trade in world GDP fell after the global financial crisis; last year it was still below its 2008 peak. The level of world trade is forecast to fall by more than 9% this year. In America and Europe shortages of medical supplies and a souring relationship with China have rekindled interest in protecting domestic producers. But it is the biggest winners of hyperglobalisation, such as China and India, that are leading the way back to ISI. The share of foreign value-added in China’s exports fell by almost ten percentage points from 2005 to 2016; its government’s “Made in China 2025” campaign aims to make it self-sufficient in the production of many key goods.  In India, Narendra Modi, the prime minister, unveiled a campaign for self-reliance as part of his pandemic-recovery package in May.

然而，开放时代正在降下帷幕。国际贸易占全球GDP比重在金融危机之后下跌，去年依旧没有达到2008年高峰。今年预测全球贸易水平下降幅度超过9%。欧美国家医疗物资的短缺和与中国关系的变差，使其保护国内制造业意愿复燃。然而是超高全球化的最大赢家们，比如中国、印度，领导着“替代进口制造业”回到巅峰。从2005年到2016年，中国出口产品的国外增值份额下降了近10个百分点；中国政府的“中国制造2025”计划旨在使中国在许多关键产品的生产上实现自给自足。在印度，五月份莫迪首相公开了“自给自足运动”作为新冠疫情大流行经济恢复计划的一部分。

经济学人12月刊