每天一篇经济学人 | The entertainment business 娱乐

Film critics often complain that the box office is overrun with sequels. Now so are studios’ head offices. On November 20th Disney announced that Bob Iger, who ran the company for 15 highly successful years until he stepped down in 2020, would go back into the spotlight for a second act as chief executive. Bob Chapek, who lasted less than three years in the role and presided over a 40% drop in Disney’s share price this year, was sent sloping back to his trailer.

影评人经常抱怨票房充斥着续篇。现在，制作公司的总部也是如此。11月20日，迪士尼宣布鲍勃·艾格将重返公众视野，再次担任首席执行官。在2020年卸任之前，艾格执掌迪士尼公司15年，非常成功。鲍勃·查佩克担任迪士尼首席执行官不到三年，在他的领导下，迪士尼股价今年下跌了40%，查佩克被赶下了台。

As any producer knows, a good leading man can make all the difference. Mr Chapek turned out to be a B-lister; Mr Iger, who transformed Disney’s fortunes, is a corporate megastar. But the creatives in Hollywood and the investors on Wall Street expecting a rapid turnaround at Disney should think again. The main problem is not at the top, but in the fundamental changes to the movie industry brought about by streaming, which have hurt every studio in Hollywood. It will take every bit of Mr Iger’s star power to turn the business back into a blockbuster.

任何制片人都知道，一个优秀的男主角会让一切变得不同。查佩克原来只是次优选择; 改变了迪士尼命运的艾格是一位企业超级巨星。但好莱坞的创意人士以及期待迪士尼能迅速扭亏为盈的华尔街的投资者们应该三思了。主要问题不在于高层，而在于流媒体给电影行业带来的根本变化，这些变化损害了好莱坞的每一家电影公司。要想把迪士尼重新打造成一部大片，艾格将动用他的明星影响力。

Mr Chapek was pelted with rotten tomatoes from the beginning. The pandemic, which shut cinemas and theme parks, was hardly his fault. But he frequently fluffed his lines. Unlike Mr Iger, a sunny former weatherman who charmed actors and directors, Mr Chapek, who rose through Disney’s theme-parks division, annoyed Hollywood’s highly-strung creatives, some of whom threatened to sue when their films went straight to streaming. He was no better at handling politicians. When Florida passed a law muzzling talk of sexuality and gender identity in classrooms, Mr Chapek at first took no position, then opposed it—infuriating both liberals and conservatives. Relations with investors were just as clumsy. Disney’s stock tumbled earlier this month after a poor set of quarterly earnings blindsided Wall Street. Investors already seem reassured by Mr Iger’s return: Disney’s stock rose by as much as 9% on Monday.

查佩克从一开始就受到了烂番茄的袭击。疫情导致电影院和主题公园关闭，这不是他的错。但他经常说错话。与曾是天气预报员的艾格不同，从迪士尼主题公园部门晋升的查佩克惹恼了好莱坞紧张不安的创意人士，其中一些人威胁说，如果他们的电影直接流媒体播放，就会提起诉讼。他也不善于与政客打交道。当佛罗里达州通过一项禁止在课堂上谈论性和性别认同的法律时，查佩克起初没有表态，后来又表示反对，这激怒了自由派和保守派。与投资者的关系也同样欠佳。本月早些时候，迪士尼公布了一组糟糕的季度收益，令华尔街措手不及。投资者似乎已经对艾格的回归感到放心: 迪士尼的股价在周一上涨了9%。

That seems to overestimate the role of Mr Chapek in Disney’s recent troubles. For the most part he was following the script left to him by Mr Iger, who hand-picked him as his successor. The priority of both was to shovel premium content onto Disney+, the streaming service launched in 2019 under Mr Iger. The approach has paid off, winning Disney more streaming subscriptions even than Netflix, which entered the business 12 years earlier. But it has proved far less profitable than the theatrical and cable industries that historically sustained Disney, along with its parks. Consumers can easily switch once they have binged on the latest series, meaning that ever more content is needed to keep them on board. Meanwhile, new rivals like Apple and Amazon have bottomless budgets. Last quarter Disney’s streaming division lost $1.5bn, twice as much as a year earlier.

这似乎高估了查佩克在迪士尼近期麻烦中的作用。在很大程度上，他是在按照亲手挑选他作为接班人的艾格留给他的剧本行事。两者的首要任务都是将优质内容注入Disney+，这是2019年在艾格领导下推出的流媒体服务。这种做法取得了成效，为迪士尼赢得了更多的流媒体订阅，甚至超过了早12年进入该行业的Netflix。但事实证明，它的利润远低于戏剧和有线电视行业，这些行业在历史上支撑着迪士尼及其公园。消费者一旦沉迷于最新的剧集，就可以很容易地转换频道，这意味着需要更多的内容来留住他们。与此同时，苹果和亚马逊等新竞争对手有“取之不尽”的预算。上个季度，迪士尼的流媒体部门亏损15亿美元，是去年同期的两倍。

These problems are being felt across Hollywood. Netflix has lost more than half its market value this year. Indeed, Disney is better placed than most of its rivals. For now Disney+ is subsidised by the still-profitable parks and cable networks (the latter fast declining). And the company expects its streaming business to break even in 2024. It is sure to be among the survivors of the streaming wars. For others things look dicier. Warner Bros Discovery warned investors earlier this month that streaming was proving tougher than expected. Paramount Global and NBCUniversal, the latter part of Comcast, are unlikely to survive in their current form. (Some speculate that they may even be swallowed by Disney—if Disney itself is not first swallowed by Apple.)

整个好莱坞都感受到了这些问题。Netflix今年的市值已经蒸发了一半以上。事实上，迪士尼的处境比大多数竞争对手都要好。目前，Disney+的补贴来自仍然盈利的公园和有线电视网络(后者正在迅速下降)。该公司预计其流媒体业务将在2024年实现收支平衡。它肯定是流媒体战争的幸存者之一。对其他公司来说，事情看起来没那么确定。华纳兄弟探索公司本月早些时候警告投资者，事实证明流媒体业务比预期的更为艰难。派拉蒙环球和康卡斯特旗下的NBC环球不太可能以目前的形式生存下去。(一些人推测，如果迪士尼没有首先被苹果吞并，他们甚至可能会被迪士尼吞并。)

As households and advertisers tighten their belts, things are only set to get harder in Hollywood. Mr Chapek may not be the last corporate leading man to bite the dust as things worsen. Having a star chief executive can certainly help. But studios are in for disappointment if they think that a change at the top is going to alter the brutal reality of Hollywood’s new economics.

随着家庭和广告商勒紧裤腰带，好莱坞的日子只会越来越难过。查佩克可能不是最后一个因事情恶化而被打败的企业领袖。拥有一位明星首席执行官肯定会有所帮助。但是，如果电影公司认为高层的变动将改变好莱坞新经济的残酷现实，他们将会失望。