Journal of Monetary Economics 2023年第2期

Journal of Monetary Economics  2023年第2期

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Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It’s all in the monetary-fiscal mix

财政预见性和政府支出的效果:这一切都在货币-财政组合中

Guido Ascari, Peder Beck-Friis, Anna Florio, Alessandro Gobbi

Announcements of future government spending have different effects on economic activity depending on the monetary-fiscal policy mix. Upon announcement, they are contractionary in the monetary regime but expansionary in the fiscal regime, in contrast with the expansionary nature of government spending at implementation in both regimes. Anticipation effects can therefore help empirically distinguish between the two regimes. Data support our theoretical insight, reconciling conflicting results in the empirical literature that disappear once conditioning on the policy regime. This evidence suggests that it could be (un)wise to anticipate future fiscal policies, depending on the regime in place.

根据货币-财政政策组合的不同，未来政府支出的公告对经济活动有不同的影响。在宣布后，它们在货币制度中是紧缩的，而在财政制度中是扩张性的，与这两种制度中实施时政府支出的扩张性形成对比。因此，预期效应有助于从经验上区分这两种制度。数据支持我们的理论见解，调和了经验文献中相互矛盾的结果，这些结果一旦受到政策制度的制约就会消失。这一证据表明，根据现行制度来预测未来的财政政策可能是(不明智的)。

Barriers to black entrepreneurship: Implications for welfare and aggregate output over time

黑人创业障碍:对福利和总产出的影响

Pedro Bento, Sunju Hwang

The number of black-owned businesses in the U.S. has increased dramatically since the 1980s, even compared to the number of non-black-owned businesses and the rise in black labor-market participation. From 1982 to 2012 the fraction black labor-market participants who owned businesses rose from 4 to 16 percent, compared to an increase of 14 to 19 percent for other participants. Combined with other evidence, this suggests black entrepreneurs have faced significant barriers to starting and running businesses and these barriers have declined over time. Interpreted through a model of entrepreneurship, we find declining barriers led to a permanent 14.4 percent increase in (consumption-equivalent) black welfare, a 5.2 percent increase in output per worker (compared to an observed 70 percent increase), and a 9 percent increase in the welfare of other labor-market participants. These impacts are in addition to any gains from declining labor-market barriers.

自20世纪80年代以来，美国黑人拥有的企业数量急剧增加，甚至与非黑人拥有的企业数量和黑人劳动力市场参与度的上升相比也是如此。从1982年到2012年，拥有企业的黑人劳动力市场参与者的比例从4%上升到16%，而其他参与者的比例则上升了14%到19%。结合其他证据，这表明黑人企业家在创业和经营企业方面面临着重大障碍，这些障碍随着时间的推移而减少。通过创业模型解释，我们发现壁垒的下降导致黑人福利(消费等额)永久性增长14.4%，人均产出增长5.2%(与观察到的70%增长相比)，其他劳动力市场参与者的福利增长9%。这些影响是在劳动力市场壁垒下降带来的好处之外产生的。

Rising earnings inequality and optimal income tax and social security policies

收入不平等加剧以及最优所得税和社会保障政策

Pavel Brendler

How did the US government preferences over income redistribution across generations and within generations change during 1980–2010? Using a rich quantitative model in which a Ramsey government chooses income taxation and Social Security, I decompose the total change in the actual policies into the impact of new economic and demographic conditions and government preferences. I find that the US government preferences have shifted toward more educated and older households since the 1980s. Preferences over income redistribution within and across generations interact and, therefore, must be analyzed jointly.

1980-2010年间，美国政府对代际和代际收入再分配的偏好发生了怎样的变化?利用拉姆齐政府选择所得税和社会保障的丰富定量模型，我将实际政策的总变化分解为新的经济和人口条件以及政府偏好的影响。我发现，自上世纪80年代以来，美国政府的偏好已经转向受教育程度更高、年龄更大的家庭。代内和代间对收入再分配的偏好相互影响，因此必须共同分析。

Monetary policy and intangible investment

货币政策与无形投资

Robin Döttling, Lev Ratnovski

The investment and stock prices of firms with relatively more intangible assets respond less to monetary policy. Similarly, intangible investment responds less to monetary policy compared to tangible investment. These effects are most pronounced among financially constrained firms, indicating that corporate intangible capital weakens the credit channel of monetary policy transmission. The evidence that higher depreciation rates or higher adjustment costs of intangible assets explain these effects is mixed, suggesting a smaller role for these channels.

无形资产相对较多的企业的投资和股价对货币政策的反应较小。同样，与有形投资相比，无形投资对货币政策的反应更小。这些效应在融资约束企业中表现得最为明显，表明企业无形资本弱化了货币政策传导的信贷渠道。更高的折旧率或更高的无形资产调整成本可以解释这些影响的证据好坏参半，表明这些渠道的作用较小。

Predicting the demand for central bank digital currency: A structural analysis with survey data

预测央行数字货币的需求:用调查数据进行的结构性分析

Jiaqi Li

What would be the potential demand for central bank digital currency (CBDC)? Which design attributes would affect the demand for CBDC? By applying a structural model to a unique Canadian survey dataset, I find that the aggregate CBDC holdings as a percentage of the total household liquid assets could range from 4–52%, based on households’ demand perspective. Allowing banks to respond to CBDC would substantially constrain the take-up of CBDC, reducing the upper bound prediction to below 20%. Important design attributes of CBDC identified are budgeting usefulness, anonymity, bundling of bank services, and rate of return.

对央行数字货币(CBDC)的潜在需求是什么?哪些设计属性会影响对CBDC的需求?通过将结构模型应用于加拿大独特的调查数据集，我发现，根据家庭的需求观点，CBDC总持有量占家庭流动资产总额的百分比可能在4-52%之间。允许银行对CBDC做出反应将大大限制CBDC的使用，将上限预测降至20%以下。确定的CBDC的重要设计属性是预算有用性、匿名性、银行服务捆绑和回报率。

The liquidity channel of fiscal policy

财政政策的流动性渠道

Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, Ralph Luetticke

Expansionary fiscal policy lowers the return difference between public debt and less liquid assets—the liquidity premium. We rationalize this finding in an estimated heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice, in which public debt affects private liquidity. This liquidity channel stabilizes fixed-capital investment. We then quantify the long-run effects of higher public debt and find little crowding out of capital, but a sizable decline of the liquidity premium, which increases the fiscal burden of debt. The revenue-maximizing level of public debt is positive and has increased to 60 percent of US GDP post-2010.

扩张性财政政策降低了公共债务和流动性较低资产之间的回报差，即流动性溢价。我们在一个估计的具有不完全市场和投资组合选择的异质代理新凯恩斯模型中对这一发现进行了合理化解释，在该模型中，公共债务影响私人流动性。这一流动性渠道稳定了固定资本投资。然后，我们量化了公共债务增加的长期影响，发现几乎没有挤出资本，但流动性溢价大幅下降，从而增加了债务的财政负担。公共债务的收入最大化水平是正的，并在2010年后增加到美国GDP的60%。

Returns to scale, firm entry, and the business cycle

规模回报、企业进入和商业周期

Vladimir Smirnyagin

In the U.S. data, aggregate financial conditions play an important role in accounting for the formation of firms with high returns to scale. A version of a firm dynamics model with financial frictions and the ability of potential entrepreneurs to choose their returns to scale can match the data. In the estimated model, financial frictions slow the rate at which businesses with high returns to scale grow disproportionately; this discourages such firms from entering during recessions. The “missing generation” of firms with high returns to scale delays recoveries in the aftermath of economic crises.

在美国的数据中，总体财务状况在解释具有高规模回报的公司的形成方面发挥了重要作用。一个包含财务摩擦和潜在企业家选择回报规模的能力的企业动态模型的版本可以与数据匹配。在估计的模型中，金融摩擦减缓了具有高规模回报的企业不成比例地增长的速度;这阻碍了这些公司在经济衰退期间进入。在经济危机过后，“失踪的一代”公司的高回报规模会延迟复苏。

Strategic referrals and on-the-job search equilibrium

战略推荐和在职求职平衡

Ji-Woong Moon

Referrals are prevalent in the U.S. labor market. To understand their aggregate effects, this paper studies an equilibrium model of on-the-job search and job referrals. In the model, referrals are modeled as a strategic interaction between a referrer and a firm. The equilibrium model shows that referrals benefit job searchers whose outside option is above a threshold. I support this prediction by showing that the referral wage premium exists only for employed job searchers. Quantitatively, referrals contribute to the total output by 3.93% through transmitting information and reducing search costs. The information transmission explains about 28% of the effects.

转诊在美国劳动力市场很普遍。为了理解二者的综合效应，本文研究了在职求职与工作推荐的均衡模型。在该模型中，推荐人被建模为推荐人与企业之间的战略互动。均衡模型表明，推荐对外部选择高于阈值的求职者有利。我通过证明推荐工资溢价只存在于有工作的求职者中来支持这一预测。在数量上，通过传递信息和降低搜索成本，推荐对总产出的贡献为3.93%。信息传递解释了大约28%的影响。