特斯拉2018第二季度产量/销量，周产5000 Model 3达成，首次总周产突破7000

嘛，关心的人应该从昨天开始就已经看到各种泄密消息了吧，这里新东西不多，就把我今早上看到的一些内容在这里放一下。关键信息我就手动翻译下，文章最后稍加点评：

来自特斯拉的官方说明：（http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q2-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries）

Q2 production totaled 53,339 vehicles, a 55% increase from Q1, making it the most productive quarter in Tesla history by far. For the first time, Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761), and we produced almost three times the amount of Model 3s than we did in Q1. Our Model 3 weekly production rate also more than doubled during the quarter, and we did so without compromising quality.

第二季度车辆总产为53,339辆，相比第一季度增长55%，又是历史新高季度。其中M3为28,578，首次单季超过Model S和X的总和（24,761辆）。

GA4, our new General Assembly line for Model 3, was responsible for roughly 20% of Model 3s produced last week, with quality from that line being as good as our regular GA3 line. We expect that GA3 alone can reach a production rate of 5,000 Model 3s per week soon, but GA4 helped to get us there faster and will also help to exceed that rate.

新建的组装线（工厂外边搭起来的巨型帐篷）在最后一周里贡献了20%的M3产量，质量和其他生产线达到了一样的标准。预计仅靠旧的组装线很快就能维持5k的周产能，但这个新组装线使得我们更早达标并将帮助我们达成更高的产能。

Tesla expects to increase production to 6,000 Model 3s per week by late next month. We also reaffirm our guidance for positive GAAP net income and cash flow in Q3 and Q4, despite negative pressures from a weaker USD and likely higher tariffs for vehicles imported into China as well as components procured from China.

特斯拉预期下个月月底（八月）将M3周产能推至6000. 我们仍然预计第三季度和第四季度将达成正现金流向，虽然美元的低迷和与美中国之间的贸易问题对此增加了很大压力。

Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X. Model S and X deliveries are in line with our guidance provided on May 3. As we previously noted, we are in the process of changing the quarterly production pattern of those vehicles for the various worldwide regions to ensure a more linear flow of deliveries through the quarter. Both orders and deliveries for Model S and X were higher in Q2 than a year ago. Our overall target for 100,000 Model S and Model X deliveries in 2018 is unchanged.

11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2, and will be delivered in early Q3. The high number of customer vehicles in transit for Model 3 was primarily due to a significant increase in production towards the end of the quarter.

这两段讲了讲交货数量和正在交货的数量。（已交货数量低出产量不少，正处于交货的数量非常之高，从此也大概可以看出特斯拉为了延长一个季度的联邦电动车减税，特意压低了第二季度交货量）

The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date. When we start to provide customers an opportunity to see and test drive the car at their local store, we expect that our orders will grow faster than our production rate. Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive and Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive Performance cars will also be available in our stores shortly.

第二季度结尾M3的订单数量剩余约42万左右。

The last 12 months were some of the most difficult in Tesla’s history, and we are incredibly proud of the whole Tesla team for achieving the 5,000 unit Model 3 production rate. It was not easy, but it was definitely worth it.

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Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5%. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements herein, including statements regarding future production and delivery of Model S, Model X and Model 3, expected cash flow and net income results, and growth in demand for our vehicles, are “forward-looking statements” that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks identified in our SEC filings. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update this information.

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老马对内的邮件

From: Elon Musk

To: Everybody

Subj. 7000

Jul. 1, 12:37 PM

来自： Elon Musk

发至：所有人

主题：7000

时间：七月1日，12：37 下午

We did it!! What an incredible job by an amazing team. Couldn’t be more proud to work with you. It is an honor.

我们做到了！最棒的团队完成的惊人成就。和你们一起就事让我骄傲不已，这是一项荣誉。

The level of dedication and creativity was mind-blowing. We either found a way or, by will and inventiveness, created entirely new solutions that were thought impossible.

（团队）献身精神和创作力的程度真可谓超乎想象。我们或是找到了出路，或是以意志和发明力，创造了以前我们认为是不可能的全新解决方案。

Intense in tents. Transporting entire production lines across the world in massive cargo planes. Whatever. It worked.

在帐篷里赶工，用空运把整条新生产线从世界另一头运过来，不管如何，管用。

Not only did we factory gate over 5000 Model 3’s, but we also achieved the S & X production target for a combined 7000 vehicle week!

我们不仅一周内制造了超过5000大关的Model 3，我们同时还取得了包括S和X在内的7000辆以上的周产目标！

What’s more, with the widespread productivity gains throughout Tesla and the new production lines spooling up, we are on track to reach 6k/week for Model 3 next month.

不仅如此，随着全生产线各个环节的快速进步，我们的进度符合下个月月底达成周产6千Model 3的预期。

I think we just became a real car company …

我想我们刚刚成为了一家真正的汽车公司 （笔者：这话听着好没志气！）

Thank you for your hard work and dedication,

感谢你们的刻苦工作和献身，

Elon

特斯拉历史季度产量：

笔者点评：

周产5031辆Model 3，这就是上半年最后一种特斯拉交出的答卷，总算合格了。其实从个人角度，我还是认为重视效率，稳步推进产量是更经济的做法。当然，自去年年底以来，model 3的产量一直低于之前的预期，落为了媒体的话柄，成为了攻击特斯拉的最大焦点和宣告特斯拉即将破产的核心论点。因而提升Model 3产能的重要性水涨船高，成了一种类似特斯拉自我证明的特殊指标。马斯克本人四月开始接受生产线管理，开始在工厂会议室过夜，连几天前生日的晚上也是在工厂过的，总算交上了这份答卷，算是完成了某种意义上的自我证明吧。

当然，从达成这个指标的过程来看，多少有点赶鸭子上架的味道。虽然我们具体还不了解特斯拉为了达成M3的产量达标，用了那些短期的手段，但目前看起来其中至少包括了动用S和X生产线上的一部分人手和优先了一部分共用的生产空间。所以如果问特斯拉能不能就此保持5000以上的产能，以个人之见是很难或者短期内不可能的。七月的前十天会是一个比较好的特斯拉实际M3产能的一个体现，个人希望仍然能在4500以上，那就不错了，相信也会让除了空头媒体外的大多数人满意。同时也希望他们能在七月月底左右达成稳定的5k周产能，那样即使特斯拉在中国的发展受到阻碍，他们的前景仍然是非常看好的。