（文章翻译）拜占庭安纳托利亚的气候和环境：整合科学、历史和考古学（第二部分）

Author(s): John Haldon, Neil Roberts, Adam Izdebski, Dominik Fleitmann, Michael McCormick, Marica Cassis, Owen Doonan, Warren Eastwood, Hugh Elton, Sabine Ladstätter, Sturt Manning, James Newhard, Kathleen Nicoll, Ioannes Telelis and Elena Xoplaki
Published by: The MIT Press

翻译：神尾智代

接上

Climate and the wider perspective

气候和更广阔的视野

Human activity has arguably had a greater imprint on the landscape than any other single factor, particularly with respect to the way in which deforestation and over-grazing have led to soil exhaustion, erosion, alluviation, and land abandonment. But outside factors have also affected hu man exploitation of the landscape. Because relatively minor shifts in climate can have significant effects at a local to regional level, it will be worth reviewing what we know of the climate history of the region from late antiquity into the medieval period before looking at the possible significance of such factors for some important changes in social, economic, and political history.

          可以说，人类活动对景观的影响比任何其他单一因素都大，尤其是在森林砍伐和过度放牧导致土壤枯竭、侵蚀、冲积和土地废弃的方式方面。 但外部因素也影响了人类对景观的开发。 由于相对较小的气候变化可能会在局部到区域层面产生重大影响，因此在研究这些因素对某些人的可能意义之前，有必要回顾一下我们对该地区从古代晚期到中世纪时期的气候历史的了解。社会、经济和政治历史的重大变化。

Palaeoclimatic records indicate that the conditions prevailing across western Eurasia from the third to the second century B.C.E. into the late second century C.E. remained relatively warm and hu mid, conducive to intensive agriculture. Often referred to as the "Roman Warm Period" (RWP), it was typified by conditions that minimized much of the usual risk and decadal variability associated with Mediterranean climate, coinciding with the growth and consolidation of Roman military and political power and economic expansion. By the same token, such conditions were also particularly favorable to the advance of agriculture and the increase in population across central and northern Europe. A detailed examination, however, shows significant climatic variations both in time and in space during this period; the RWP was not warm and wet everywhere all the time. Just as the Medieval Warm Period is now more commonly referred to as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), it is likely that the RWP should similarly be re-evaluated.

          古气候记录表明，公元前 3 世纪到 2 世纪，欧亚大陆西部的气候普遍存在。到公元 2 世纪后期，仍然相对温暖和潮湿，有利于集约化农业。通常被称为“罗马暖期”（RWP），它的特点是最大限度地减少了与地中海气候相关的大部分常见风险和年代际变化，恰逢罗马军事和政治权力的增长和巩固以及经济扩张。同样，这种条件也特别有利于中欧和北欧的农业发展和人口增长。然而，详细的检查表明，这一时期在时间和空间上都有显着的气候变化； RWP 并不总是温暖潮湿。正如中世纪暖期现在更常被称为中世纪气候异常 (MCA) 一样，RWP 很可能也应该类似地重新评估。

A correlation has been postulated between climate and changing solar activity, with periods of low solar activity - solar minima - commonly found in conjunction with low temperatures. Accordingly, scholars have associated climate and solar activity with historical events or developments, although this relationship is never one-to-one, and its existence is often hotly debated.

          已经假设气候和不断变化的太阳活动之间存在相关性，低太阳活动时期-太阳极小期-通常与低温一起发现。 因此，学者们将气候和太阳活动与历史事件或发展联系起来，尽管这种关系从来不是一一对应的，而且它的存在也经常引起激烈争论。

Notwithstanding the absence of consensus, climate historians largely agree about the long-term (multicentennial to millennial scale) changes that have affected the earth. What is usually less clear from the historical perspective are the decadal-scale climatic fluctuations that are superimposed on long-term changes in mean cli mate, because they are affected by a range of factors that in many cases still need to be fully investigated and understood.

          尽管缺乏共识，气候历史学家在很大程度上同意影响地球的长期（数百年到千禧年规模）变化。 从历史角度通常不太清楚的是叠加在平均气候长期变化上的年代际尺度的气候波动，因为它们受到一系列因素的影响，在许多情况下仍然需要充分调查和了解 .

The broad picture for the Roman world shows favorable and stable climatic conditions from c. 250 B.C.E. to 200 C.E., giving way thereafter to a far more variable climate, with higher-amplitude fluctuations between cold/dry and warm/wet periods. In central and western Anatolia, climatic variations appear to have been well distinguished, with some significant wet-to-dry oscillations. In the southern Levant, the climate may have become more humid after c. 400 C.E. until sometime in the sixth century, when drier weather prevailed, although the chronology of such changes remains insecure.

          罗马世界的广阔图景显示了从公元前250 年到公元200年开始的有利和稳定的气候条件。此后让位于更加多变的气候，在寒冷/干燥和温暖/潮湿时期之间具有更高的幅度波动。在安纳托利亚中部和西部，气候变化似乎已经得到很好的区分，有一些显着的干湿振荡。在黎凡特南部，公元 400 年之后气候可能变得更加潮湿。直到公元 6 世纪的某个时候，天气变得更加干燥，尽管这些变化的年代顺序仍然不确定。

The exact timing and duration of the subregional variations are yet to be clarified due to the imprecisely dated palaeoclimatic data, but the evidence suggests that the pattern of change may not have been the same everywhere - for example, in western Anatolia and the southern Levant. Given the paucity of proxy records for temperature in the eastern Mediterranean within this time interval, we must resort to an analysis of tree rings and speleothems (stalag mites, stalactites, and flowstones) from the Alps and central Europe. They indicate that the climate became much colder during the first half of the sixth century (Figure I). For the period from the 530s, conditions may have been affected by what appears to have been a large volcanic eruption dated roughly between 536 and $41, although there is no strong evidence to link it with events in the northern hemisphere. The plague of justinian broke out in 541, but the nature of a possible connection between a changing climate and this pandemic over subsequent years remains unelucidated.

          由于古气候数据的日期不准确，次区域变化的确切时间和持续时间尚待澄清，但有证据表明，变化的模式可能并非到处都相同——例如，在安纳托利亚西部和黎凡特南部。鉴于此时间间隔内东地中海温度的替代记录很少，我们必须对来自阿尔卑斯山和中欧的树木年轮和洞穴（石笋、钟乳石和流石）进行分析。它们表明，在 6 世纪上半叶，气候变得更加寒冷（图 I）。从 530 年代开始，条件可能受到了大约发生在 536 到 41 美元之间的大规模火山爆发的影响，尽管没有强有力的证据表明它与北半球的事件有关。查士丁尼瘟疫于 541 年爆发，但随后几年气候变化与这场流行病之间可能存在的联系的性质仍未阐明。

During the second half of the sixth century and into the first half of the seventh, conditions were cold in central Europe, allowing glacial advance in the Alps. Alpine glacier evidence suggests warming c. 400 and some very slow glacial advance c. 430, although the fifth-century tree-ring data indicate conditions that are neither especially cool nor warm; speleothem evidence from Austria shows cooling c. 400 to 450, followed by warming again. In the Balkans and eastern Mediterranean, broadly, the period from the second to the fifth century may have become increasingly arid, although the evidence is not always easy to interpret, and opinions differ. Most observers agree, however, about a shift to a wetter (and possibly warmer) regime during the fifth and into the sixth century. In the southern Levant, this wetter phase seems to end in the course of the first half of the sixth century; in central and western Anatolia more humid conditions appear to have persisted into the eighth century. Some historians have wondered whether this weather has causal implications regarding the revival and consolidation of the Eastern Roman Empire at this time. The evidence of ceramics and other data would certainly support an intensification of economic activity at that time in that region.

          在 6 世纪下半叶和 7 世纪上半叶，中欧的气候寒冷，使得阿尔卑斯山的冰川得以推进。高山冰川证据表明公元400年变暖；公元430年，一些非常缓慢的冰川在推进，尽管 5 世纪的树木年轮数据表明条件既不是特别凉爽也不是特别温暖；来自奥地利的洞穴证据显示公元400 到 450为冷却，然后再次升温。在巴尔干半岛和地中海东部，从广义上讲，从 2 世纪到 5 世纪的时期可能变得越来越干旱，尽管证据并不总是容易解释，而且意见也各不相同。然而，大多数观察家都同意在五世纪和六世纪期间转向更潮湿（并且可能更温暖）的状态。在黎凡特南部，这个湿润阶段似乎在 6 世纪上半叶结束；在安纳托利亚中部和西部，更潮湿的条件似乎一直持续到八世纪。一些历史学家想知道这种天气是否与此时东罗马帝国的复兴和巩固有因果关系。陶瓷和其他数据的证据肯定会支持当时该地区经济活动的加剧。

The key proxy climate records shown in Figure i pertain mainly to central and western Anatolia, which after the middle of the seventh century lay at the heart of the Byzantine Empire (see Figure 2b). The relatively well-dated stable-isotope records from Sofular Cave, reflective of the Black Sea environment, and Nar Lake, in a more continental location, both show closely aligned trends throughout the period from 270 to 1450 C.E. They indicate drier climatic conditions during the later fourth and early fifth centuries; greater humidity during the later sixth, seventh, and early eighth centuries; and a shorter-lived dry phase afterward. The same pattern is recorded in the less detailed and not so well-dated sedimentary record from Tecer Lake (See Figure I).

          图1中显示的关键代理气候记录主要涉及安纳托利亚中部和西部，在七世纪中叶之后位于拜占庭帝国的中心（见图 2b）。 来自 Sofular 洞穴（反映黑海环境）和纳尔湖（位于更大陆的位置）的相对年代较久的稳定同位素记录在整个公元 270 年至 1450 年期间都显示出密切一致的趋势。 四世纪末和五世纪初； 六世纪后期、七世纪和八世纪初期的湿度更大； 之后是短暂的干燥阶段。 同样的模式记录在来自 Tecer 湖的不太详细且年代不详的沉积记录中（见图 I）。

To what extent are these climatic trends registered in historical records of weather and crisis for the same time period? Telelis compiled systematic surveys of extreme weather conditions and their effects from Byzantine archival sources for the period from 300 to 1500 C.E., and Stathakopoulos cataloged episodes of famine and disease from 284 to 750 C.E. These conditions, covering the eastern Mediterranean as a whole, are listed in appendix 1 and shown summarily in Figure I. In contrast to most proxy climate records, historical observations are neither continuous nor complete; events may be missing from the documentary record. Furthermore, it may not always be possible to locate events with geographical precision, though the ones that are relatively easy to place can provide clear causal connections. For example, according to Stathakopoulos, between 451 and 454 C.E., "as a result of a drought in Phrygia, Galatia, Cappadocia, Cilicia and Palestine, a famine occurred . . . and a pestilence broke out." But causality is not always so obvious. For instance, the reasons for the lack of wheat and barley that led to the shortage of bread in Constantinople in 555 C.E. are unclear; this might have been the result of provisioning problems in Egypt.

          这些气候趋势在同一时期的天气和危机历史记录中的记录程度如何？ Telelis 根据拜占庭档案资料汇编了对公元 300 年至 1500 年期间极端天气条件及其影响的系统调查，并且 Stathakopoulos 对公元 284 年至 750 年间的饥荒和疾病事件进行了编目。列出了涵盖整个地中海东部的这些条件在附录 1 中并在图 I 中概括显示。与大多数代理气候记录相比，历史观测既不连续也不完整；文件记录中可能缺少事件。此外，虽然相对容易定位的事件可以提供明确的因果关系，但并非总是可以精确地定位事件。例如，根据 Stathakopoulos 的说法，公元 451 年至 454 年之间，“由于弗里吉亚、加拉太、卡帕多西亚、西里西亚和巴勒斯坦的干旱，发生了饥荒……并爆发了瘟疫。”但因果关系并不总是那么明显。例如，公元 555 年君士坦丁堡缺乏小麦和大麦的原因尚不清楚；这可能是埃及供应问题的结果。

Given these potential difficulties, it is all the more striking that proxy data and historical records show such a close overall correspondence for western and central Anatolia for the period between 300 and 870 C.E. (Figure 1). During the drier climatic phase from 300 to 560 C.E., twelve droughts and eighteen famines are recorded, and during the subsequent wet phase from 560 to 730 C.E., no droughts and only two famines are noted in the historical record. After 730 C.E., droughts and famines again became more frequent, this time accompanied by severe winter weather (cold and snow), especially in the ninth and subsequent centuries.

          鉴于这些潜在的困难，更令人惊讶的是，代用数据和历史记录显示，公元 300 年至 870 年期间，安纳托利亚西部和中部的总体对应关系如此紧密（图 1）。 在公元 300 年至 560 年的较干燥气候阶段，记录了 12 次干旱和 18 次饥荒，而在随后的公元 560 年至 730 年的湿润阶段，历史记录中只记录了两次干旱和两次饥荒。 公元 730 年之后，干旱和饥荒再次变得更加频繁，这一次伴随着严冬（寒冷和下雪），特别是在 9 世纪及以后的世纪。

The good correspondence between the proxy and historical data sets breaks down for the late tenth and eleventh centuries; no hint of documented droughts is evident in any of the proxy-climate records. The reasons for this divergence are not entirely clear, but notably only one of the historically recorded droughts (in 1037 C.E.) is located in Anatolia; many more occurred in Greece and Macedonia to the west. The absence of reports cannot be attributed to the Byzantines' loss of central and eastern Anatolia to the Turks, because this loss did not occur until the battle of Manzikert in 1071, and Anatolia provided numerous weather reports (mainly of cold winters) prior to this date. Hence, although certain parts of the eastern Mediterranean undoubtedly experienced harsh weather conditions during the tenth and eleventh centuries, drought conditions do not appear to have affected all parts of the region.

          代理数据集和历史数据集之间的良好对应在 10 世纪后期和 11 世纪失效； 在任何代理气候记录中都没有明显的干旱记录迹象。 这种差异的原因尚不完全清楚，但值得注意的是，只有历史记录的干旱之一（公元 1037 年）发生在安纳托利亚； 更多发生在希腊和西部的马其顿。 没有报告不能归因于拜占庭人将安纳托利亚中部和东部损失给土耳其人，因为这种损失直到 1071 年曼齐克特战役才发生，而安纳托利亚在此之前提供了大量天气报告（主要是寒冷的冬天） 日期。 因此，尽管地中海东部的某些地区在 10 世纪和 11 世纪期间无疑经历了恶劣的天气条件，但干旱条件似乎并未影响到该地区的所有地区。

After the second century C.E., a series of changes in regional climate patterns continued across the fifth and sixth centuries, and well into the seventh century, marking the end of the relative stability of the RWP; the impacts varied by north and south and by east and west, as well as by time. In central Anatolia, for example, the early fifth century was markedly dry, followed by the rapid onset of much wetter climatic conditions during the course of the sixth century (Figure 1). To what extent the different historical trajectories of east and west can be tied to these different climatic trends remains to be seen, although some distinct causal connections have been posited. The current state of our knowledge of these changes across several centuries is still sketchy, given both the absence of data from many areas and inadequate chronological control within some datasets, leaving a good deal of the dating uncertain. Despite the incompleteness of the regional pattern beneath the general trends, approximate parallels between climatic history and the evolution of states and societies suggest that climate and environment should figure prominently in an integrated interpretation of past events.

          公元二世纪以后，区域气候格局的一系列变化持续到五、六世纪，一直延续到七世纪，标志着RWP相对稳定的结束；影响因北和南、东和西以及时间而异。例如，在安纳托利亚中部，五世纪初期非常干燥，随后在六世纪期间迅速出现更加潮湿的气候条件（图 1）。尽管已经提出了一些不同的因果关系，但东西方不同的历史轨迹在多大程度上可以与这些不同的气候趋势联系起来还有待观察。鉴于许多地区缺乏数据，而且某些数据集中的时间顺序控制不足，我们对几个世纪以来这些变化的了解仍然是粗略的，这使得很多年代测定不确定。尽管总体趋势下的区域模式不完整，但气候历史与国家和社会演变之间的大致相似之处表明，气候和环境应在对过去事件的综合解释中占据突出地位。

未完待续