经济学权威期刊The Review of Economic Studies 2023年第1期

The Review of Economic Studies  2023年第1期

Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023

 

 

——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独

 

 

1.Immigration and Redistribution

移民与再分配

Alberto Alesina, Armando Miano, Stefanie Stantcheva

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 1–39, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac011

Does immigration change support for redistribution? We design and conduct large-scale surveys and experiments in six countries to investigate how people perceive immigrants and how these perceptions influence their support for redistribution. We find striking misperceptions about the number and characteristics of immigrants. In all countries, respondents greatly overestimate the total number of immigrants, think immigrants are culturally and religiously more distant from them, and economically weaker—less educated, more unemployed, and more reliant on and favoured by government transfers—than they actually are. In the experimental part of our article, we show that simply making respondents think about immigration before asking questions about redistribution makes them support less redistribution, including actual donations to charities. The perception that immigrants are economically weaker and more likely to take advantage of the welfare system is strongly correlated with lower support for redistribution, much more so than the perceived cultural distance or the perceived share of immigrants. These findings are confirmed by further experimental evidence. Information about the true shares and origins of immigrants does not change support for redistribution. An anecdote about a “hard-working” immigrant has somewhat stronger effects but is unable to counteract the negative priming effect of making people think about immigration. Our results further suggest that narratives shape people’s views on immigration more deeply than hard facts.

移民会改变对再分配的支持吗?我们在六个国家设计并进行了大规模的调查和实验，以调查人们如何看待移民，以及这些看法如何影响他们对再分配的支持。我们发现，人们对移民的数量和特征存在明显的误解。在所有国家，受访者都大大高估了移民的总数，认为移民在文化和宗教上离他们更遥远，经济上更弱——受教育程度更低，失业更多，更依赖政府转移支付，也更受政府转移支付的青睐——比实际情况要差。在我们文章的实验部分中，我们表明，在询问关于再分配的问题之前，简单地让受访者思考移民问题会让他们支持更少的再分配，包括对慈善机构的实际捐款。认为移民在经济上较弱，更有可能利用福利制度的观点，与对再分配的支持程度较低有很强的相关性，其相关性远远高于人们认为的文化距离或移民所占比例。这些发现被进一步的实验证据所证实。关于移民的真实份额和来源的信息不会改变对再分配的支持。一个关于“努力工作”的移民的轶事在某种程度上有更强的影响，但无法抵消让人们思考移民的负面启动效应。我们的研究结果进一步表明，叙事比硬事实更能深刻地塑造人们对移民的看法。

 

 

2.Measuring Belief-dependent Preferences without Data on Beliefs

在没有信念数据的情况下测量信念依赖偏好

Charles Bellemare, Alexander Sebald

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 40–64, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac023

We derive bounds on the causal effect of belief-dependent preferences (reciprocity and guilt aversion) on choices in sequential two-player games without data on the (higher-order) beliefs of players. We show how informative bounds can be derived by exploiting a specific invariance property common to those preferences. We illustrate our approach by analysing data from an experiment conducted in Denmark. Our approach produces tight bounds on the causal effect of reciprocity in the games we consider. These bounds suggest there exists significant reciprocity in our population—a result also substantiated by the participants’ answers to a post-experimental questionnaire. On the other hand, our approach yields high implausible estimates of guilt aversion—participants would be willing, in some games, to pay at least three Danish crowns (DKK) to avoid letting others down by one DKK. We contrast our estimated bounds with point estimates obtained using data on stated higher-order beliefs, keeping all other aspects of the model unchanged. We find that point estimates fall within our estimated bounds, suggesting that elicited higher-order belief data in our experiment is weakly (if at all) affected by various reporting biases.

在没有参与者(高阶)信念数据的情况下，我们推导了信念依赖偏好(互惠和内疚厌恶)对连续二人博弈选择的因果影响的边界。我们将展示如何通过利用这些首选项共同的特定不变属性来派生信息边界。我们通过分析在丹麦进行的一项实验的数据来说明我们的方法。在我们考虑的博弈中，我们的方法对互惠的因果效应产生了严格的限制。这些界限表明，在我们的人群中存在着显著的互惠关系——参与者对实验后问卷的回答也证实了这一结果。另一方面，我们的方法对内疚厌恶产生了高得难以置信的估计——在一些游戏中，参与者愿意支付至少3个丹麦克朗(DKK)，以避免让其他人失望1个DKK。我们将我们的估计界与使用指定的高阶信念数据获得的点估计进行对比，保持模型的所有其他方面不变。我们发现点估计落在我们的估计范围内，这表明在我们的实验中引出的高阶信念数据受到各种报告偏差的影响很弱(如果有的话)。

 

 

3.What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output 

什么是好学校，家长能分辨出来吗?学校产出多维度的证据

Diether W Beuermann, C Kirabo Jackson, Laia Navarro-Sola, Francisco Pardo

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 65–101, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac025

To explore whether schools’ causal impacts on test scores measure their overall impact on students, we exploit plausibly exogenous school assignments and data from Trinidad and Tobago to estimate the causal impacts of individual schools on several outcomes. Schools’ impacts on high-stakes tests are weakly related to impacts on important outcomes such as arrests, dropout, teen motherhood, and formal labour market participation. To examine if parents’ school preferences are related to these causal impacts, we link them to parents’ ranked lists of schools and employ discrete-choice models to infer preferences for schools. Parents choose schools that improve high-stakes tests even conditional on peer quality and average outcomes. Parents also choose schools that reduce criminality and teen motherhood and increase labour market participation. School choices among parents of low-achieving students are relatively more strongly related to schools’ impacts on non-test-score outcomes, while the opposite is true for parents of high-achieving students. These results suggest that evaluations based solely on test scores may be misleading about the benefits of school choice (particularly for low-achieving students), and education interventions more broadly.

为了探究学校对考试成绩的因果影响是否衡量了其对学生的整体影响，我们利用了似是而非的学校作业和来自特立尼达和多巴哥的数据来估计个别学校对几种结果的因果影响。学校对高风险考试的影响与对重要结果的影响(如被捕、辍学、青少年为人母和正式参与劳动力市场)的影响关系不大。为了检验父母的学校偏好是否与这些因果影响有关，我们将它们与父母的学校排名列表联系起来，并使用离散选择模型来推断对学校的偏好。家长们选择那些能提高高风险考试成绩的学校，即使是以同龄人的质量和平均成绩为条件。家长们还会选择那些减少犯罪和青少年孕产并提高劳动力市场参与度的学校。低成就学生家长的学校选择与学校对非考试成绩的影响的相关性相对更强，而高成就学生家长的情况则相反。这些结果表明，仅仅基于考试分数的评估可能会误导人们对学校选择的好处(特别是对成绩较低的学生)，以及更广泛的教育干预。

 

 

4.Are Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits Holding Back Female Labour Supply?

与婚姻有关的税收和社会保障福利是否阻碍了女性劳动力的供应?

Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi, Fang Yang

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 102–131, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac018

In the US, both taxes and old-age social security benefits depend on one’s marital status and tend to reduce the labour supply of the secondary earner. To what extent are these provisions holding back the female labour supply? We estimate a rich dynamic life-cycle model of labour supply and savings for couples and singles using the Method of Simulated Moments for the 1945 and 1955 birth cohorts. Our model matches well the life-cycle profiles of labour market participation, hours, and savings for married and single people, and generates plausible elasticities of labour supply. It implies that eliminating these marriage-related provisions would drastically increase the participation of married women over their entire life cycle, reduce the participation of married men after age 60, and increase savings. If the resulting government surplus were used to lower income taxation, there would be large welfare gains for the vast majority of the population. These results hold for both cohorts, including the later one, which has participation similar to that of more recent generations.

在美国，税收和老年社会保障福利都取决于一个人的婚姻状况，这往往会减少第二收入者的劳动力供应。这些规定在多大程度上阻碍了女性劳动力的供应?我们利用1945年和1955年出生队列的模拟时刻方法，估计了一对夫妇和单身人士的劳动力供应和储蓄的丰富动态生命周期模型。我们的模型很好地匹配了已婚和单身人士的劳动力市场参与、工时和储蓄的生命周期特征，并产生了合理的劳动力供应弹性。这意味着，取消这些与婚姻有关的规定将大大增加已婚妇女在其整个生命周期中的参与率，减少60岁以后已婚男子的参与率，并增加储蓄。如果由此产生的政府盈余被用于降低所得税，绝大多数人口将获得巨大的福利收益。这些结果适用于两个队列，包括后一个队列，它的参与与最近几代人类似。

 

 

5.A World Equilibrium Model of the Oil Market

石油市场的世界均衡模型

Gideon Bornstein, Per Krusell, Sergio Rebelo

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 132–164, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac019

We use new, comprehensive micro data on oil fields to build and estimate a structural model of the oil industry embedded in a general equilibrium model of the world economy. In the model, firms that belong to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) act as a cartel. The remaining firms are a competitive fringe. We use the model to study the macroeconomic impact of the advent of fracking. Fracking weakens the OPEC cartel, leading to a large long-run decline in oil prices. Fracking also reduces the volatility of oil prices in the long run because fracking firms can respond more quickly to changes in oil demand.

我们利用新的、全面的油田微观数据，建立并估计了嵌入在世界经济一般均衡模型中的石油工业结构模型。在模型中，隶属于石油输出国组织(OPEC)的企业以卡特尔的形式存在。其余的公司都是有竞争力的边缘公司。我们使用该模型来研究水力压裂技术的出现对宏观经济的影响。水力压裂法削弱了石油输出国组织(OPEC)的卡特尔地位，导致油价长期大幅下跌。从长远来看，水力压裂法还可以降低油价的波动性，因为水力压裂公司可以更快地对石油需求的变化做出反应。

 

 

6.Racial Diversity and Racial Policy Preferences: The Great Migration and Civil Rights

种族多样性和种族政策偏好:大移民和公民权利

Alvaro Calderon, Vasiliki Fouka, Marco Tabellini

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 165–200, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac026

Between 1940 and 1970, more than 4 million African Americans moved from the South to the North of the US, during the Second Great Migration. This same period witnessed the struggle and eventual success of the civil rights movement in ending institutionalized racial discrimination. This article shows that the Great Migration and support for civil rights are causally linked. Predicting Black inflows with a shift-share instrument, we find that the Great Migration raised support for the Democratic Party, increased Congress members’ propensity to promote civil rights legislation, and encouraged pro-civil rights activism outside the US South. We provide different pieces of evidence that support for civil rights was not confined to the Black electorate but was also shared by segments of the white population.

在1940年至1970年期间，超过400万非洲裔美国人从美国南部迁移到美国北部，这是第二次大迁移。这一时期见证了民权运动在结束制度化种族歧视方面的斗争和最终的成功。这篇文章表明，大移民和民权支持是有因果关系的。通过偏离-份额工具预测黑人流入，我们发现，大移民提高了对民主党的支持，增加了国会议员推动民权立法的倾向，并鼓励了美国南部以外的亲民权活动。我们提供了不同的证据，表明对民权的支持并不局限于黑人选民，也存在于部分白人人口中。

 

 

7.Simple Adaptive Size-Exact Testing for Full-Vector and Subvector Inference in Moment Inequality Models

矩不等式模型中全向量和子向量推断的简单自适应精确尺寸测试

Gregory Cox, Xiaoxia Shi

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 201–228, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac015

We propose a simple test for moment inequalities that has exact size in normal models with known variance and has uniformly asymptotically exact size under asymptotic normality. The test compares the quasi-likelihood ratio statistic to a chi-squared critical value, where the degree of freedom is the rank of the inequalities that are active in finite samples. The test requires no simulation and thus is computationally fast and especially suitable for constructing confidence sets for parameters by test inversion. It uses no tuning parameter for moment selection and yet still adapts to the slackness of the moment inequalities. Furthermore, we show how the test can be easily adapted to inference on subvectors in the common empirical setting of conditional moment inequalities with nuisance parameters entering linearly. User-friendly Matlab code to implement the test is provided.

给出了矩不等式在方差已知的正态模型中具有精确大小，且在渐近正态下具有一致渐近精确大小的简单检验方法。该测试将准似然比统计量与卡方临界值进行比较，其中自由度是有限样本中活跃不等式的秩。该测试不需要模拟，因此计算速度快，特别适用于通过测试反演构造参数的置信集。该算法不使用调优参数进行弯矩选择，但仍能适应弯矩不等式的松弛性。此外，我们展示了如何测试可以很容易地适应子向量的推理在常见的经验设置的条件矩不等式与妨害参数进入线性。用户友好的Matlab代码实现的测试提供。

 

 

8.Innovation and Strategic Network Formation

创新与战略网络形成

Krishna Dasaratha

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 229–260, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac021

We study a model of innovation with a large number of firms that create new technologies by combining several discrete ideas. These ideas are created via private investment and spread between firms. Firms face a choice between secrecy, which protects existing intellectual property, and openness, which facilitates learning from others. Their decisions determine interaction rates between firms, and these interaction rates enter our model as link probabilities in a learning network. Higher interaction rates impose both positive and negative externalities, as there is more learning but also more competition. We show that the equilibrium learning network is at a critical threshold between sparse and dense networks. At equilibrium, the positive externality from interaction dominates: the innovation rate and welfare would be dramatically higher if the network were denser. So there are large returns to increasing interaction rates above the critical threshold. Nevertheless, several natural types of interventions fail to move the equilibrium away from criticality. One effective policy solution is to introduce informational intermediaries, such as public innovators who do not have incentives to be secretive. These intermediaries can facilitate a high-innovation equilibrium by transmitting ideas from one private firm to another.

我们研究了一个由大量企业通过组合几个离散的想法来创造新技术的创新模型。这些想法是通过私人投资产生的，并在公司之间传播。企业面临着一个选择，要么是保护现有知识产权的保密，要么是便于向他人学习的公开。他们的决策决定了企业之间的交互率，这些交互率作为学习网络中的链接概率进入我们的模型。更高的互动率会带来正外部性和负外部性，因为学习更多，竞争也更多。我们表明，平衡学习网络在稀疏和密集网络之间处于一个临界阈值。在均衡状态下，来自互动的正外部性占主导地位:如果网络更密集，创新速度和福利会显著更高。因此，将互动率提高到临界阈值以上会有很大的回报。然而，一些自然类型的干预措施未能使平衡脱离临界状态。一个有效的政策解决方案是引入信息中介机构，比如没有保密动机的公共创新者。这些中介机构可以通过将想法从一家私营企业传递给另一家私营企业来促进高创新均衡。

 

 

9.The Emergence of Market Structure

市场结构的出现

Maryam Farboodi, Gregor Jarosch, Robert Shimer

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 261–292, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac014

We study a model of over-the-counter trading in which ex ante identical traders invest in a contact technology and participate in bilateral trade. We show that a rich market structure emerges both in equilibrium and in an optimal allocation. There is continuous heterogeneity in market access under weak regularity conditions. If the cost per contact is constant, heterogeneity is governed by a power law and there are middlemen, market participants with unboundedly high contact rates who account for a positive fraction of meetings. Externalities lead to overinvestment in equilibrium, and policies that reduce investment in the contact technology can improve welfare. We relate our findings to important features of real-world trading networks.

本文研究了一个事前相同的交易者投资于一种接触技术并参与双边交易的场外交易模型。我们的研究表明，富裕市场结构在均衡和最优配置中同时出现。在弱规律性条件下，市场准入存在持续的异质性。如果每次接触的成本是恒定的，异质性受幂律控制，存在中间人，即具有无限高接触率的市场参与者，他们占会议的正部分。外部性导致均衡中的过度投资，减少接触技术投资的政策可以提高福利。我们将研究结果与现实世界交易网络的重要特征联系起来。

 

 

10.Affordable Housing and City Welfare

经济适用房和城市福利

Jack Favilukis, Pierre Mabille, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 293–330, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac024

Housing affordability is the main policy challenge for most large cities in the world. Zoning changes, rent control, housing vouchers, and tax credits are the main levers employed by policymakers. How effective are they at combatting the affordability crisis? We build a dynamic stochastic spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the effect of these policies on the well-being of its citizens. The model endogenizes house prices, rents, construction, labour supply, output, income, and wealth inequality, the location decisions of households within the city as well as inter-city migration. Its main novel features are risk, risk aversion, and incomplete risk-sharing. We calibrate the model to the New York metropolitan statistical area. Housing affordability policies carry substantial insurance value but affect aggregate housing and labour supply and cause misallocation in labour and housing markets. Housing affordability policies that enhance access to this insurance especially for the neediest households create substantial net welfare gains.

住房负担能力是世界上大多数大城市的主要政策挑战。分区变化、租金控制、住房凭证和税收抵免是决策者使用的主要杠杆。它们在应对可负担性危机方面有多有效?我们构建了一个动态随机空间均衡模型来评估这些政策对居民福利的影响。该模型内生于房价、租金、建筑、劳动力供应、产出、收入和财富不平等、城市内家庭的区位决策以及城市间的迁移。其主要新颖特征是风险、风险规避和不完全风险分担。我们将模型校准到纽约大都市的统计区域。住房负担能力政策具有重大的保险价值，但会影响住房和劳动力的总供应，并导致劳动力和住房市场的错配。住房负担能力政策提高了获得这种保险的机会，特别是对最贫困的家庭来说，创造了大量的净福利收益。

 

 

11.Slicing the Pie: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade

切开蛋糕:量化贸易的总效应和分配效应

Simon Galle, Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, Moises Yi

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 331–375, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac020

We develop a multi-sector gravity model with heterogeneous workers to quantify the aggregate and group-level welfare effects of trade. The model generalizes the specific-factors intuition to a setting with labour reallocation, leads to a parsimonious formula for the group-level welfare effects from trade, and nests the aggregate results in Arkolakis, Costinot and Rodríguez-Clare (2012, “New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?”, American Economic Review, 102, 94–130). We estimate the model using the structural relationship between China-shock driven changes in manufacturing employment and average earnings across US groups defined as commuting zones. We find that the China shock increases average welfare but some groups experience losses as high as four times the average gain. However, adjusting for plausible measures of inequality aversion barely affects the welfare gains. We also develop and estimate an extension of the model that endogenizes labour force participation and unemployment, finding similar welfare effects from the China shock.

我们开发了一个包含异质性工人的多部门引力模型，以量化贸易的总体和群体层面的福利效应。该模型将特定因素的直觉推广到一个有劳动力重新分配的环境中，导致了一个关于贸易带来的群体层面福利效应的精简公式，并在Arkolakis、Costinot和Rodríguez-Clare(2012年，“新的贸易模型，同样的旧收益?”，《美国经济评论》，102,94 - 130)。我们使用中国冲击驱动的制造业就业变化与被定义为通勤区的美国群体平均收入之间的结构关系来估计该模型。我们发现，中国冲击提高了平均福利，但一些群体的损失高达平均收益的四倍。然而，根据厌恶不平等的合理指标进行调整，几乎不会影响福利收益。我们还开发并估计了一个内化为劳动力参与和失业的模型的扩展，发现中国冲击产生了类似的福利效应。

 

 

12.Using Bid Rotation and Incumbency to Detect Collusion: A Regression Discontinuity Approach 

利用竞价旋转和在位时间来检测共谋:一种断点回归方法

Kei Kawai, Jun Nakabayashi, Juan Ortner, Sylvain Chassang

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 376–403, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac013

Cartels participating in procurement auctions frequently use bid rotation or prioritize incumbents to allocate contracts. However, establishing a link between observed allocation patterns and firm conduct has been difficult: there are cost-based competitive explanations for such patterns. We show that by focusing on auctions in which the winning and losing bids are very close, it is possible to distinguish allocation patterns reflecting cost differences across firms from patterns reflecting non-competitive environments. We apply our tests to two datasets: the sample of Ohio milk auctions studied in Porter and Zona (1999, “Ohio School Milk Markets: An Analysis of Bidding”, RAND Journal of Economics, 30, 263–288), and a sample of municipal procurement auctions from Japan.

参与采购拍卖的卡特尔经常使用轮流投标或优先考虑现有企业来分配合同。然而，在观察到的分配模式和企业行为之间建立联系一直很困难:这些模式有基于成本的竞争性解释。我们的研究表明，通过关注中标者和败标者非常接近的拍卖，有可能区分反映企业之间成本差异的分配模式和反映非竞争环境的模式。我们将测试应用于两个数据集:波特和Zona研究的俄亥俄州牛奶拍卖样本(1999年，“俄亥俄州学校牛奶市场:投标分析”，兰德经济学杂志，30,263-288)，以及来自日本的市政采购拍卖样本。

 

 

13.Should Central Banks Issue Digital Currency?

央行应该发行数字货币吗?

Todd Keister, Daniel Sanches

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 404–431, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac017

We study how introducing a central bank digital currency affects equilibrium allocations and welfare in an environment where both currency and bank deposits are used in exchange. We highlight an important policy tradeoff: while a digital currency tends to improve efficiency in exchange, it may also crowd out bank deposits, raise banks’ funding costs, and decrease investment. We derive conditions under which targeted digital currencies, which compete only with physical currency or only with bank deposits, raise welfare. If such targeted currencies are infeasible, we illustrate the policy tradeoffs that arise when issuing a single, universal digital currency.

我们研究了在货币和银行存款都被用于交换的环境中，引入央行数字货币如何影响均衡分配和福利。我们强调一个重要的政策权衡:虽然数字货币往往会提高效率，但它也可能挤出银行存款，提高银行的融资成本，并减少投资。我们得出的条件是，目标数字货币(仅与实物货币或银行存款竞争)会提高福利。如果这些目标货币不可行，我们将说明发行单一、通用的数字货币时出现的政策权衡。

 

 

14.Behaviour within a Clinical Trial and Implications for Mammography Guidelines

临床试验中的行为和对乳房x光检查指南的影响

Amanda E Kowalski

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 432–462, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac022

Mammography guidelines have weakened in response to evidence that mammograms diagnose breast cancers that would never eventually cause symptoms, a phenomenon called “overdiagnosis.” Given concerns about overdiagnosis, instead of recommending mammograms, US guidelines encourage women aged 40–49 to get them as they see fit. To assess whether these guidelines target women effectively, I propose an approach that examines mammography behaviour within an influential clinical trial that followed participants long enough to find overdiagnosis. I find that women who are more likely to receive mammograms are healthier and have higher socioeconomic status. More importantly, I find that the 20-year level of overdiagnosis is at least 3.5 times higher among women who are most likely to receive mammograms. At least 36% of their cancers are overdiagnosed. These findings imply that US guidelines encourage mammograms among healthier women who are more likely to be overdiagnosed by them. Guidelines in other countries do not.

有证据表明，乳房x光检查诊断出的乳腺癌最终不会引起症状，这种现象被称为“过度诊断”，对此，乳房x光检查指南的作用有所减弱。考虑到对过度诊断的担忧，美国的指导方针鼓励40-49岁的女性按照自己认为合适的方式进行检查，而不是推荐乳房x光检查。为了评估这些指导方针是否有效地针对女性，我提出了一种方法，在一项有影响力的临床试验中检查乳房x光检查的行为，该试验跟踪参与者足够长的时间，以发现过度诊断。我发现，更有可能接受乳房x光检查的女性更健康，社会经济地位也更高。更重要的是，我发现，在最有可能接受乳房x光检查的女性中，20年的过度诊断水平至少高出3.5倍。至少有36 %的癌症被过度诊断。这些发现表明，美国的指导方针鼓励那些更有可能被过度诊断的健康女性进行乳房x光检查。其他国家的指南则没有。

 

 

15.How Do Inheritances Shape Wealth Inequality? Theory and Evidence from Sweden 

遗产是如何塑造财富不平等的?来自瑞典的理论和证据

Arash Nekoei, David Seim

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 463–498, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac016

This article aims to measure and understand the role of inheritances in shaping wealth inequality. We use a quasi-experimental design and Swedish administrative data to document that the average heir depletes her inheritance within a decade while the inheritances of wealthy heirs remain intact. These different depletion rates are not due to different consumption or labour supply responses but due to different rates of return on inherited wealth. Upon their receipt, inheritances reduce relative measures of wealth inequality, such as top shares or percentile ratios. Theoretically, this reduction in inequality could be due to either a compressed inheritance distribution or similar chances of having wealthy parents (high intergenerational mobility). Empirically, the first force is more significant in Sweden. Within a decade, however, the effect is reversed: inheritances increase wealth inequality since the different depletion rates widen the inequality in inherited wealth over time. This implies that inheritance taxation can reduce long run wealth inequality only through the taxation of wealthy heirs.

本文旨在衡量和理解遗产在塑造财富不平等中的作用。我们使用准实验设计和瑞典的行政数据来证明，普通继承人在十年内耗尽了她的遗产，而富有继承人的遗产却完好无损。这些不同的耗竭率不是由于不同的消费或劳动力供应反应，而是由于继承财富的回报率不同。在他们获得遗产后，遗产减少了衡量财富不平等的相对指标，如最高股份或百分位比率。从理论上讲，这种不平等的减少可能是由于继承分配压缩，或者有类似的机会拥有富裕的父母(高代际流动性)。从经验上看，第一种力量在瑞典更为重要。然而，在十年内，这种效应发生了逆转:遗产会加剧财富不平等，因为随着时间的推移，不同的耗竭率会扩大继承财富的不平等。这意味着，遗产税只能通过对富有的继承人征税来减少长期的财富不平等。