经济权威期刊The Economic journal 2023年第4期

The Economic journal 2023年第4期

Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023

——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独

The Material basis of Cooperation: how Scarcity Reduces Trusting Behaviour

合作的物质基础:稀缺如何减少信任行为

Gustav Agnemanand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1265–1285, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac087

Trusting behaviour is a cornerstone of cooperation and, hence, economic performance, not least in poorer communities where economic transactions often rely on informal agreements. But trusting behaviour is potentially costly since the counterpart may decide to defect. In this study, we investigate whether food scarcity influences the level of trusting behaviour in rural Tanzania by leveraging quasi-experimental variation in food supply induced by the harvest. Through a lab-in-the-field experiment, we document that farmers display lower levels of trusting behaviour during the lean season compared to the abundant season and show that the difference is explained by variation in food scarcity.

信任行为是合作的基石，因此也是经济绩效的基石，尤其是在经济交易往往依赖非正式协议的较贫穷社区。但信任行为的潜在代价是高昂的，因为对方可能决定背叛。在本研究中，我们通过利用准实验性的粮食供应变化来研究粮食短缺是否会影响坦桑尼亚农村的信任行为水平。通过一项实地实验，我们证明，与丰饶季节相比，农民在丰饶季节表现出较低水平的信任行为，并表明这种差异可以通过食物稀缺的变化来解释。

Shaking Legitimacy: The Impact of Earthquakes on Conflict in Historical China

震动合法性:历史上中国地震对冲突的影响

Ying Bai

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1286–1317, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead004

This paper examines the causal effect of political legitimacy on stability, using the historical case of Imperial China. Chinese rulers ascribed their legitimacy to a heavenly mandate. Calamities like earthquakes were considered to be a sign of weakened approval, making quakes a proxy for a negative legitimacy shock. I use quake-induced minor shaking (i.e., strong enough to be felt, but too weak to cause material damage) to demonstrate that legitimacy shocks cause more conflicts. I examine whether quakes serve as a coordination device to overcome collective action problems.

本文以中国帝制的历史为例，考察政治合法性对稳定的因果关系。中国统治者把他们的合法性归因于天命。像地震这样的灾难被认为是认可度下降的迹象，因此地震是负面合法性冲击的代表。我用地震引起的轻微震动(即，强烈到可以感觉到，但太弱而不能造成物质损害)来证明合法性冲击会导致更多的冲突。我研究地震是否可以作为一种协调手段来克服集体行动问题。

The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How Large is the Transfer Multiplier

冠状病毒刺激方案:转移乘数有多大

Christian Bayerand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1318–1347, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead003

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, large parts of the economy were locked down and, as a result, households’ income risk rose sharply. At the same time, policy makers put forward the largest stimulus package in history. In the United States it amounted to $2 trillion, a quarter of which represented transfer payments to households. To the extent that such transfers were (i) announced in advance and (ii) conditional on recipients being unemployed, they mitigated income risk associated with the lockdown—in contrast to unconditional transfers. We develop a baseline scenario for a COVID-19 recession in a medium-scale heterogeneous agent new Keynesian model and use counterfactuals to quantify the impact of transfers. For the short run, we find large differences in the transfer multiplier: it is negligible for unconditional transfers and about unity for conditional transfers. Overall, we find that the transfers reduced the output loss due to the pandemic by some two percentage points at its trough.

Long-Run Effects of Aid: Forecasts and Evidence from Sierra Leone

援助的长期影响:来自塞拉利昂的预测和证据

Katherine Caseyand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1348–1370, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead001

Abstract

We evaluate the long-run effects of a decentralised approach to economic development called community-driven development—a prominent strategy for delivering foreign aid—by revisiting a randomised community-driven development program in Sierra Leone 11 years after launch. We estimate large persistent gains in local public goods and market activity, and modest positive effects on institutions. There is suggestive evidence that community-driven development may have slightly improved the communities’ response to the 2014 Ebola epidemic. We compare estimates to the forecasts of experts from Sierra Leone and abroad, working in policy and academia, and find that local policymakers are overly optimistic about the effectiveness of community-driven development.

Demand- Versus Supply-Side Climate Policies with a Carbon Dioxide Ceiling

有二氧化碳上限的需求侧与供给侧气候政策

Thomas Eichnerand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1371–1406, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead002

Abstract

In a Hotelling model with a climate coalition and a free-riding fringe, we compare demand-side and supply-side climate policies aimed at keeping CO|$_2$|concentration below a ceiling equivalent to global warming of |$2^\circ{\rm C}$|⁠. With the demand-side policy, the coalition caps its fuel demand. The corresponding allocation is intra-temporally distorted. With the supply-side policy, the coalition purchases deposits. The corresponding allocation is inter-temporally distorted and the fuel extraction path can be discontinuous. In an empirically calibrated economy, a medium-sized (the grand) coalition is stable with the demand-side (supply-side) policy. If the coalition acts strategically, the stable grand coalition implements first best.

Time of Day and High-Stake Cognitive Assessments

一天中的时间和高风险认知评估

Alessio Gaggeroand Denni Tommasi

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1407–1429, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac090

Abstract

A variety of external conditions may affect individual performance in high-stake cognitive assessments, with potentially lasting consequences on earnings and career. We provide the first causal evidence that the time of the day is an important condition affecting the performance at the moment of an evaluation. Exploiting a setting in which cognitive assessments are quasi-randomly assigned at a different time of day, we find that peak performance occurs in the early afternoon. The estimated time-of-day effects follow specific patterns consistent with the circadian rhythm, which suggests that biological factors are important determinants of performance even in economically meaningful settings.

Steering Fallible Consumers

引导容易犯错的消费者

Paul Heidhuesand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1430–1465, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac093

Abstract

Online intermediaries with information about a consumer’s tendencies often ‘steer’ her toward products she is more likely to purchase. We analyse the welfare implications of this practice for ‘fallible’ consumers, who make statistical and strategic mistakes in evaluating offers. The welfare effects depend on the nature and quality of the intermediary’s information and on properties of the consumer’s mistakes. In particular, steering based on high-quality information about the consumer’s mistakes is typically harmful, sometimes extremely so. We argue that much real-life steering is of this type, raising the scope for a broader regulation of steering practices.

掌握消费者倾向信息的在线中介通常会“引导”她购买更有可能购买的产品。我们分析了这种做法对“易犯错的”消费者的福利影响，他们在评估报价时犯了统计和战略错误。福利效应取决于中介信息的性质和质量以及消费者错误的性质。特别是，基于关于消费者错误的高质量信息进行指导通常是有害的，有时是极其有害的。我们认为，现实生活中的许多转向都是这种类型的，这提高了对转向实践进行更广泛监管的空间。

Connecting the Young: High School Graduates’ Matching to First Jobs in Booms and Great Recessions

连接年轻人:在繁荣和大衰退中，高中毕业生与第一份工作的匹配度

Lena Hensvikand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1466–1509, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead007

Using Swedish economy-wide data, we examine the relationship between business-cycle conditions and the use of social contacts in the process where young workers are matched to their first real jobs. We measure social contacts acquired during paid work during high school, and we rely on interacted class-establishment fixed-effect models to isolate the effects of interest. One-third of post-graduation matches are formed at establishments where youths worked during their studies. Graduates are much more likely to match with sites to which adult co-workers from these jobs have relocated. The importance of these job-finding channels is strongly counter-cyclical for young labour market entrants.

利用瑞典的经济数据，我们研究了在年轻人找到第一份真正工作的过程中，经济周期条件与社会关系的使用之间的关系。我们测量了高中期间在带薪工作中获得的社会接触，我们依靠互动的阶级建立固定效应模型来隔离兴趣的影响。三分之一的毕业后配对是在年轻人学习期间工作的场所进行的。毕业生更有可能与这些工作的成年同事转移到的网站匹配。对于进入劳动力市场的年轻人来说，这些求职渠道的重要性具有很强的反周期性。

Ballot or Bullet: The Impact of the UK’s Representation of the People Act on Peace and Prosperity

选票还是子弹:英国人民代表对和平与繁荣的影响

Andrea Marcucciand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1510–1536, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac092

Abstract

Does democracy curb domestic political violence? To study this, we focus on the United Kingdom’s Representation of the People Act of 1867—which is a critical juncture in the history of democratisation. Constructing a novel borough (‘urban centre’) level dataset on social conflict events and economic performance around the 1868 elections (the first elections where newly enfranchised citizens could vote), we exploit arguably exogenous variation in enfranchisement intensity. We find a strong and robust peace-promoting effect of franchise extension and identify as a major channel of transmission the increase of the population’s political influence (voice) and local economic growth.

Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Under Frictional Financial Markets

摩擦性金融市场下的最优财政整顿

Dejanir H Silva

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1537–1585, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead013

This paper studies optimal fiscal policy in a currency union subject to capital flow shocks in an economy with two main ingredients: (i) sticky prices and (ii) financially constrained arbitrageurs. Given capital outflows and high external debt, the fiscal authority faces a trade-off between stimulating the economy or paying off external debt. The planner reduces the value-added tax in the short run, while it raises and front-loads the sum of value-added tax and payroll taxes. It isnot optimal to use spending to stimulate the economy. The country engages in a fiscal consolidation, as government debt falls compared with a passive fiscal policy.

本文研究了资本流动冲击下货币联盟的最优财政政策，经济中存在两个主要因素:(1)粘性价格和(2)融资约束套利者。考虑到资本外流和高外债，财政当局面临着刺激经济或偿还外债之间的权衡。该计划在短期内降低了增值税，同时提高并提前负担增值税和工资税的总和。用支出来刺激经济并不是最优选择。与被动的财政政策相比，随着政府债务下降，该国进行了财政整顿。

Employment Decline During the Great Recession: the Role of Firm Size Distribution

大衰退期间的就业下降:公司规模分布的作用

Wenjian Xu

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1586–1625, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac091

Over 8,000,000 jobs were lost in the Great Recession, creating widespread economic hardship. This paper documents a novel and robust empirical regularity that highly concentrated local labour markets experienced larger employment declines during the Great Recession. Through setting up a model with heterogeneous firms facing idiosyncratic productivity shocks, I show that firm size distribution summarised by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index plays a crucial role in the reallocation of workers, and it magnifies negative idiosyncratic shocks and attenuates positive ones. I undertake a series of empirical tests to rule out alternative explanations, and show that large employment losses in concentrated labour markets are not driven by highly concentrated industry locations being hit harder during the Great Recession, having smaller labour markets or higher firm leverage ratios. The effect of concentration level is larger in sectors with higher labour supply elasticity, or a higher variance of productivity shocks, and rises during the Great Recession compared to other periods, consistent with my model’s predictions.

在大衰退中，超过800万人失去了工作，造成了广泛的经济困难。本文记录了一个新颖而稳健的经验规律，即在大衰退期间，高度集中的本地劳动力市场经历了更大的就业下降。通过构建异质性企业面临特质生产率冲击的模型，本文发现，由赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数总结的企业规模分布对劳动者的再分配起着至关重要的作用，它放大了负面特质冲击，减弱了正面特质冲击。我进行了一系列的实证检验，以排除其他解释，并表明，在劳动力集中的市场上，大量就业流失并不是由高度集中的行业所在地在大衰退期间受到更严重的打击、劳动力市场较小或企业杠杆率较高所导致的。在劳动力供给弹性较高或生产率冲击方差较大的行业，集中度水平的影响更大，并且在大衰退期间比其他时期有所上升，这与我的模型预测一致。

Shifting Punishment onto Minorities: Experimental Evidence of Scapegoating

将惩罚转移到少数群体:替罪羊的实验证据

Michal Bauerand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1626–1640, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead005

Abstract

Do members of a majority group systematically shift punishment onto innocent members of an ethnic minority? We introduce an experimental paradigm, punishing the scapegoat game, to measure how injustice affecting a member of one's own group shapes punishment of an unrelated bystander. When no harm is done, we find no evidence of discrimination against the ethnic minority (Roma people in Slovakia). In contrast, when a member of one's own group is harmed, the punishment ‘passed’ onto innocent individuals more than doubles when they are from the minority, as compared to when they are from the dominant group.

Dynamics of Expenditures on Durable Goods: The Role of New-Product Quality

耐用品支出的动态:新产品质量的作用

Fabio Bertolottiand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1641–1656, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead006

We study the role of new-product quality for the dynamics of durable-good expenditures around the Great Recession. We assemble a rich dataset on US new-car markets during 2004–12, combining data on transaction prices with detailed information about vehicles’ technical characteristics. During the recession, a reallocation of expenditures away from high-quality new models accounts for a significant decline in the dispersion of expenditures. In turn, car manufacturers introduced new models of lower quality. The drop in new-model quality persistently depressed the technology embodied in vehicles, and likely contributed to the slow recovery of expenditures.

我们研究了大衰退期间新产品质量对耐用品支出动态的影响。我们收集了2004-12年美国新车市场的丰富数据，将交易价格数据与汽车技术特征的详细信息结合起来。在经济衰退期间，支出从高质量的新模式中重新分配导致支出分布显著下降。反过来，汽车制造商也推出了质量较低的新车型。新车质量的下降持续抑制了汽车所体现的技术，并可能导致支出的缓慢恢复。

Dating the Lender of Last Resort

与最后贷款人约定

Kilian Riederand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1657–1676, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac089

Abstract

We exploit a fixed rule constraining central bank credit provision in a regression discontinuity framework to analyse counterparties’ behavioural responses to the (non-)receipt of liquidity during a crisis. In spring 1847, the Bank of England suddenly started rationing credit to avoid violating its gold reserve requirement. We show that counterparties that suffered rejection from the Bank were more likely to fail. Conditional on survival, rationed counterparties learned from their experience and changed their behaviour during a subsequent panic in fall 1847: they came to the discount window more often, but submitted smaller requests and relied less on central bank liquidity overall.