外刊听读| 经济学人 特朗普归来
The next election already
下一次 选举 已经 开始
Series reboot
系列重启
Donald Trump declares that he will make America great again, again
唐纳德-特朗普宣称，他将又一次使美国再次伟大
1 YOU COULD tell something was afoot on the swampy, sweltering evening of November 15th in Palm Beach. The bridge to Mar-a-Lago, the opulent resort where Donald Trump resides, was thronged with fans who draped themselves, despite the humidity, in “Make America Great Again” flags—ambling, praying, tailgating. Inside the former president’s palace something extraordinary was indeed happening, in front of a swankier crowd—an assemblage of suits with red baseball caps and evening dresses with pearls. Mr Trump was there to announce formally a decision that he had already hinted at over the past year: that he would be embarking on a revenge bid to take back the presidency in 2024.
11月15日炎热的傍晚，在棕榈滩的湿软的土地上，你可以看出有些事情正在发生。通往唐纳德-特朗普居住的豪华度假村——海湖庄园(Mar-a-Lago)的桥上挤满了粉丝，他们不顾高温潮湿，披着 "让美国再次伟大"的旗帜，在桥上漫步、祈望、野餐。在这位前总统的豪宅里，确实发生了一些非同寻常的事情。在更多人面前--带着红色棒球帽、身着西装珍珠晚礼服，特朗普先生正式宣布了一个他在过去一年中反复暗示的决定：他将在2024年开始报复性竞选，夺回总统职位。
2 Ever since he left the White House, shortly after the attempted insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th, Mr Trump has been plotting a comeback. He managed to keep a tight leash on the party throughout the midterm elections, meddling in primaries to pick candidates who most fervently endorsed the lie that Democrats had stolen the presidential election. Having restored himself to the helm of the party, the former president was preparing to crow after November 8th when Republicans expected to sweep back to power.
1月6日，国会大厦叛乱未遂后不久，他离开了白宫，自此特朗普就一直在谋划东山再起。在整个中期选举中，他设法对党内进行严格控制，插手初选，挑选那些对民主党窃取总统选举这一谎言极为认同的候选人。在恢复了自己在保守党内的领导地位后，这位前总统正准备在11月8日之后滔滔不绝地夸耀自己的胜利，在那时共和党人预计自己会重新夺取政权。
3 That didn’t happen, however. The Senate remained in Democratic control, while Republicans scraped together the barest majority in the House of Representatives. The sycophants who ran in key races in the swing states of Arizona and Pennsylvania came up with naught. The performance was so sub-par that his advisers reportedly tried counselling him to delay the announcement. But contrition and humility are not Mr Trump’s thing. He simply took credit for the House flipping and blamed the bad results on other Republicans.
然而，这并没有发生。参议院仍然由民主党控制，而共和党人在众议院勉强凑出了多数席位。在亚利桑那和宾夕法尼亚这两个摇摆州的关键竞选中，那些马屁精们一无所获。特朗普的表现是如此之差，据说他的顾问试图劝说他推迟宣布胜利。但忏悔和谦逊不是特朗普先生的专长。他只是把众议院的胜利功劳归功于自己，并把恶果归咎于其他共和党人。
4 There was little new in the speech, which was largely a rehashing of the hour-long stemwinders he has been delivering at political rallies for the better part of the year. He took his usual delight in claiming that “now we are a nation in decline” and “a failing nation”, recapitulating the theme of “American carnage” from his inaugural address by describing “blood-soaked streets” in cities that are “cesspools of violent crimes” and the invasion of fentanyl-toting illegal immigrants. His policy recommendations remained the same, with some updates for new culture-war battles over critical race theory and transgender children, though in addition to old proposals he now wants to execute drug-dealers. Once again, only he alone could fix it.
演讲中没有什么新内容，主要是重复他今年大部分时间在政治集会上长达一小时的演说。他像往常一样高兴地声称 "我们现在是一个正在衰落的国家"和"一个失败的国家"，通过描述“暴力犯罪的污水池”，城市中的“血迹斑斑的街道"和持有芬太尼（一种易成瘾的药物）的非法移民入侵，重述了他在就职演说中的"美国大屠杀"主题。他的政策建议依然如故，只是针对批判性种族理论和变性儿童的新文化战争进行了一些更新，不过除了旧的建议之外，他现在还想处决毒品交易商。他再一次强调，只有他可以解决这个问题。
5 But the fighting words were delivered with less verve. Perhaps the weight of the midterms embarrassment pressed down, or the mountain of legal inquiries, or the prospect of a two-year-long campaign. The light behind the eyes had dimmed. “I’m a victim, I will tell you,” he said in the most heartfelt portion of the speech.
但是，这些战斗性的话语却没有之前那么有魄力。也许是因为中期选举的尴尬局面，或者是堆积如山的法律调查，又或者是长达两年的竞选前景。眼睛后面的光已经暗淡了。"我是一个受害者，我会告诉你"，这是他演讲中最真挚的部分。
6 Mr Trump’s haste to re-enter the fray can be explained by two things. First, the Department of Justice is investigating whether or not he improperly took classified materials from the White House; the congressional January 6th committee has spent more than a year unravelling the effort to overturn the election result; prosecutors in Georgia are examining his exhortation to election officials to “find” enough votes for him to secure victory. Prosecuting a former president for this was already fraught and unprecedented, presenting difficult paths to trial and conviction. That he is also an active presidential candidate—with a good chance at winning his party’s nomination again, and, Democrats must admit, the general election, too—makes prosecution even harder.
之所以特朗普先生急于重新进入战场，可以用两件事来解释。首先，司法部正在调查他是否破坏了规矩，从白宫拿走了机密材料； 1月6日，国会委员会花了一年多的时间来阐释推翻选举结果的努力；佐治亚州的检察官正在审查他对选举官员的敦促，为他 "找到"足够的选票以确保胜利。起诉一位前总统已经很麻烦了，而且这是前所未有的，审判和定罪都很困难。他还是一名活跃的总统候选人--很有可能再次赢得党内提名。而且，民主党人必须承认：在总统大选中，起诉更加困难。
But, more important, his tight hold over the party is starting to be questioned, with elites searching for a way out that does not endanger their chance of maintaining power. Previous periods of questioning have usually been prompted by some whopping scandal—the revelation of the “Access Hollywood” tape in the closing days of the 2016 election, the praising of white supremacists who rallied in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, or the campaign to delegitimise elections that ended in the sacking of the Capitol. In all cases, these doubts eventually subsided because Republicans reasoned that the man won them elections, and they could not work out a way to do so without him.
但是，更重要的是，他对党的严格控制开始受到质疑，精英们正在寻找一条不危及他们自己权力的出路。以前的质疑通常是由一些巨大丑闻引起的--在2016年大选的最后几天，"走进好莱坞"录像带曝光，在2017年在弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔集会上，对白人至上主义者的赞扬，或以洗劫国会大厦的方式来结束选举的非法活动。哪怕在这些不利情况下，疑虑最终都被平息了。因为共和党人认为，特朗普为他们赢得了选举。没有特朗普，共和党人束手无策。
8 The midterms have called that into question. Mr Trump lost Republicans the House in his own midterm elections in 2018; he lost the presidential election in 2020; he almost singlehandedly lost Republicans the Senate in the Georgia run-off elections held in 2021; and in 2022 he arguably kept the Senate in Democratic hands by boosting the campaigns of novice candidates. A morally compromised winner Republicans could live with; a morally compromised loser is less enticing.
中期选举对这一点提出了质疑。特朗普先生在2018年执政期的中期选举中让共和党失去了众议院；他在2020年在总统选举中落败；在2021年举行的佐治亚州第二轮选举中，他几乎以一己之力让共和党失去了参议院；而在2022年，他可以说是凭借推动新手候选人，将参议院拱手相让。共和党人可以接受一个在道德上有所欠缺的赢家；而一个在道德上有所欠缺的失败者则没那么有吸引力。
9 By declaring early Mr Trump hopes to freeze out his potential rivals to lead the party, such as Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, and Glenn Youngkin, the governor of Virginia— both of whom the former president has already taken to sniping at. At his announcement speech at Mar-a-Lago, Mr Trump had the grace to refrain from reiterating his criticisms of them (he had branded one “Ron De Sanctimonious” and criticised the other for having a Chinese-sounding surname). Perhaps that is why the former president did not appear to be having much fun. He has always relished the personality-bashing aspects of politics, and much less to the dull business of making federal policy.
通过提前宣布参加竞选，特朗普先生希望将他的潜在竞争对手挡在党内，如佛罗里达州州长罗恩-德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)和弗吉尼亚州州长格伦-杨金(Glenn Youngkin)--前总统已经对他们进行了抨击。在海湖庄园的宣布演讲中，特朗普先生很有风度地避免重申对他们的批评（他曾将其中一人称为 "罗恩-道貌岸然"，还批评另一人有一个听起来像中国人的姓氏）。也许这就是为什么这位前总统看起来并不怎么开心。他总是喜欢政治中的人格攻击，而对制定联邦政策的枯燥事务不太感兴趣。
10 He also avoided repeating his claims that the presidential election was stolen. If his advisers and speechwriters managed to keep him in check for one evening, they should not expect to do so over the two-year campaign for the presidency that now awaits them.
他还避免重复关于总统选举被盗的说法。如果他的顾问和演讲稿只能控制住特朗普一个晚上，他们不应该指望在未来的两年总统竞选中也能做到。
11 Away from the presidential struggle, the midterm fallout is being felt in other ways. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican congressman who expected to be easily made Speaker of the House, secured such a small majority of seats that the truculent Freedom Caucus will be able to exact big concessions by threatening his removal.
在总统斗争之外，中期选举的影响还体现在其他方面。共和党议员凯文-麦卡锡(Kevin McCarthy)希望轻松地成为众议院议长，但他只获得了多数席位的一小部分，至于脾气暴躁的众议院自由党团将通过罢免的威胁来要求他作出重大让步。
12 In the Senate Mitch McConnell, the party’s minority leader, faced an unsuccessful challenge from Rick Scott, the senator from Florida. Although Mr Scott chaired the party committee in charge of ensuring a Senate majority, he blames Mr McConnell for the lacklustre result because he had expressed some displeasure at the Trumpian slate of candidates. Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the party since 2017, is also facing down a possible insurrection of her own. Even if all are ultimately unsuccessful, they reflect the anxieties of a party that must once again decide if the pact with Mr Trump is worth it.
在参议院，该党的少数派领袖米奇-麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)面临着来自佛罗里达州参议员里克-斯科特(Rick Scott)的挑战，但并未成功。尽管斯科特先生担任了负责确保参议院多数席位的党委主席，但他将这一不理想的结果归咎于麦康奈尔先生，因为他对特朗普的候选人名单表示了一些不满。自2017年以来担任该党主席的罗娜-麦克丹尼尔(Ronna McDaniel)也面临着可能发生的党内叛变。即使最终都没有成功，他们也反映了一个政党的焦虑，该党必须再次决定与特朗普先生的协议是否值得。
13 Time and time again, the elected Republicans have balked when presented with opportunities to distance themselves from Mr Trump. The next few months will offer another one. At the moment, other contenders, including Trump administration officials like the former vice-president Mike Pence, who just released a memoir somewhat critical of his boss, are jostling for position but are unlikely to immediately declare their candidacies. Mr DeSantis would probably wait until after the Florida legislative session ends in May. Being the only major declared candidate might give Mr Trump the opportunity to consolidate slipping support within the party. It might also leave him the one most exposed to attacks from within. “The journey ahead of us will not be easy,” Mr Trump warned in his speech. “Anyone who truly seeks to take on this rigged and corrupt system will be faced with a storm of fire that only a few could understand.” This sense of apocalyptic anxiety is widely shared.
当选的共和党人在面临与特朗普先生保持距离的机会时，一次又一次地退缩。接下来的几个月将提供另一个机会。目前，其他竞争者，包括像前副总统迈克-彭斯(Mike Pence)这样的特朗普政府官员，正在争夺职位，但共和党不太可能立即宣布他们的候选资格。德桑蒂斯先生可能会等到5月份佛罗里达州立法会议结束之后再宣布自己的候选资格。作为唯一宣布的主要候选人，特朗普先生可能有机会巩固党内不断下滑的支持率。这也可能使他成为最容易受到来自党内攻击的人。"我们前面的旅程不会很容易，"特朗普先生在演讲中警告说。"任何真正寻求向这个被操纵的腐败系统发起冲击的人，都将面临着只有少数人能够理解的困难。" 这种动乱前焦虑感得到了广泛认同。
