每天一篇经济学人 | Policing in America 美国的治安（...

What a difference a couple of years makes. In spring 2020 the murder of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, by a police officer in Minneapolis brought millions of people out of covid-19 lockdowns all over the world and onto the streets. After a wave of furious protests, and riots, some politicians on the American left adopted the protesters’ slogan: that the way to ensure that black lives mattered was to “defund the police”. The Democratic mayors of New York and San Francisco, among others, promised to cut police budgets.

几年的时间改变了多少。2020年春天，明尼阿波利斯一名警察谋杀了手无寸铁的黑人乔治·弗洛伊德，这使世界各地数百万人摆脱了新冠的封锁限制，走上街头。在一波愤怒的抗议和骚乱之后，一些美国左翼政客采用了抗议者的口号：确保黑人的生命受到重视的方法就是“撤资警察”。纽约和旧金山等地的民主党市长承诺削减警察预算。

Today, few people think that is a good idea. As our special report in this issue explains, murders have surged in America. In 2020 the number of people killed was 28% higher than it was in 2019—the single biggest increase recorded in more than a century. In 2021 many cities saw further rises. Almost nowhere has been spared, including suburbs and rural areas. 

如今，很少有人认为“撤资警察”是一个好主意。正如我们本期的特别报道所解释的那样，美国的谋杀案激增。2020年，死亡人数比2019年高出28%，这是一个多世纪以来的仅有一次的最大增幅。2021年，许多城市的死亡人数进一步上涨。几乎没有地方可以幸免，包括郊区和农村地区。

By rich-world standards, America is a staggeringly violent country. The murder rate is six times higher than it is in Britain, France or Germany and 20 times higher than in Japan. In 2020, one in 700 black men aged 18 to 24 was murdered. Violence is now not only cutting short the lives of over 24,000 people a year. It is also devastating entire communities, as businesses and middle-class people leave crime-ridden neighbourhoods. Plausible estimates put the social cost of murder at over $400bn per year, around 2% of America’s gdp. 

按照发达国家的标准，美国是一个暴力程度惊人的国家。其谋杀率是英国、法国和德国的6倍，是日本的20倍。2020年，每700名18至24岁的黑人男子中就有一人被谋杀。暴力现在不仅每年缩短了24000多人的生命。随着企业和中产阶级离开犯罪猖獗的街区，它也在摧毁整个社区。据合理估计，每年谋杀的社会成本超过4000亿美元，约占美国GDP的2%。

Republicans campaigning for the midterm elections have tarred Democrats as tough on cops and soft on crime. No serious Democratic politician now promises to defund the police. Last month President Joe Biden proposed to direct $37bn to tackle crime, partly through the hiring of 100,000 more police officers. Though some activists, such as the American Civil Liberties Union, which criticised Mr Biden’s plan, pretend otherwise, this is a problem that cannot be solved without investment in policing.

参加中期选举的共和党人指责民主党人对警察强硬，对犯罪软弱。现在没有一个严肃的民主党政治家承诺撤资。上月，美国总统乔•拜登提议拨出370亿美元用于打击犯罪，部分方式是新增10万名警察。尽管一些活动人士，如批评拜登计划的美国公民自由联盟，佯称这是一个不投资于治安就无法解决的问题。

The rise in violence since 2020 has many causes. Gun sales have soared; the pandemic shut many social services. But the fact that violence has not risen as much in any other comparable country suggests that the American public’s loss of faith in their police that summer played a part. People in high-crime areas became more reluctant to call or co-operate with the cops. Many officers, sensing a loss of political support, pulled back from such places, or stayed in their cars.

自2020年以来暴力事件的增加有许多原因。枪支销量飙升；疫情导致许多社会服务机构关闭。但事实上，暴力事件在其他任何类似国家都没有上升那么多，这表明美国公众在那个夏天对警察失去信心是一个原因。在犯罪率高的地区，人们更不愿意给警察打电话或与警察合作。许多警官感到失去了政治支持，从这些地方撤退，或留在自己的车里。

The share of murders that result in an arrest or identification of a dead suspect has dropped from about 70% in the 1980s to 54% in 2020. If criminals get away with murder, others will resort to “street justice”. As Robert Peel, founder of London’s police, argued, good policing requires “the willing co-operation of the public”.

导致逮捕或确认死亡嫌疑人的谋杀案的比例已从20世纪80年代的约70%下降到2020年的54%。如果罪犯逍遥法外，其他人将诉诸“街头正义”。正如伦敦警察的创始人罗伯特•皮尔所言，良好的治安需要“公众的自愿合作”。

The protesters who raged that hot summer were right to demand change. But that should mean reform, not retrenchment. Mr Biden’s programme to hire more cops is a necessary start. Though it spends vastly more on prisons, America devotes roughly 20% less as a share of its gdp on policing than the European Union average.

在那个炎热的夏天，愤怒的抗议者要求改变是正确的。但这应该意味着改革，而不是紧缩开支。拜登雇佣更多警察的计划是一个必要的开始。尽管美国在监狱上的投入远远高于欧盟，但美国在治安上的投入占GDP的比例却比欧盟平均水平低20%左右。

However, more money will produce lasting improvement only if it is coupled with sustained reform aimed at rebuilding trust in the police. In the 1990s New York and Los Angeles both proved that policy change can reduce violence dramatically. Police chiefs should devote more of their officers to investigating and prosecuting serious violence. Training should focus more clearly on teaching police officers that they are public servants, not warriors. Mayors and prosecutors should not back down from firing and indeed locking up those who use unjustifiable violence. And cops who do not want to get on board should find another profession.

不过，只有与旨在重建对警察信任的持续改革相结合，更多的资金才能产生持久的改善。在20世纪90年代，纽约和洛杉矶都证明了政策改变可以显著减少暴力。警察局长应该投入更多警力调查和起诉严重暴力事件。培训应该更明确地集中在教导警察他们是公仆，而不是武士。市长和检察官应该解雇那些使用不合理暴力的人，甚至将他们关进监狱。那些不愿意加入的警察应该另谋职业。