经济学顶刊 American Economic Review 2023年第1期

American Economic Review 2023年第1期

Vol. 113 No. 1 January 2023

 

 

——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独

 

 

1.Retail Pharmacies and Drug Diversion during the Opioid Epidemic

阿片类药物流行期间的零售药店和药物转移

Aljoscha Janssen

Xuan Zhang

This study investigates the role of retail pharmacy ownership in the opioid epidemic. Using data of prescription opioid orders, we show that compared with chain pharmacies, independent pharmacies dispense 39.1 percent more opioids and 60.5 percent more OxyContin. After an independent pharmacy becomes a chain pharmacy, opioid dispensing decreases. Using the OxyContin reformulation, which reduced nonmedical demand but not the legitimate medical demand, we show that at least one-third of the difference in the amount of OxyContin dispensed can be attributed to nonmedical demand. We show that differences in competitive pressure and whether pharmacists own the pharmacy drive our estimates.

本研究调查了零售药房所有权在阿片类药物流行中的作用。利用处方阿片类药物订单的数据，我们发现，与连锁药店相比，独立药店的阿片类药物和奥施康定的配售量分别增加了39.1%和60.5%。独立药店变成连锁药店后，阿片类药物的配药减少了。使用奥施康定改版，减少了非医疗需求，但没有减少合法医疗需求，我们表明，至少三分之一的奥施康定配药量差异可归因于非医疗需求。我们表明，竞争压力和药剂师是否拥有药房的差异驱动了我们的估计。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210357

 

 

 

2.Conflict and Intergroup Trade: Evidence from the 2014 Russia-Ukraine Crisis

冲突和集团间贸易:2014年俄乌危机的证据

Vasily Korovkin

Alexey Makarin

Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of intergroup social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic Russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with Russia. This decline is economically significant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of intergroup trust. Affected Ukrainian firms suffered a decrease in performance and diverted trade to other countries. Our results suggest that, through social effects, conflict can be economically damaging even away from combat areas.

武装冲突是否会通过破坏群体间的社会资本来减少贸易，即使在非战斗地区也是如此?我们分析了2014年俄乌冲突前后的乌克兰贸易交易。在双重差分框架下，我们发现，来自俄罗斯民族较少地区的乌克兰企业与俄罗斯的贸易下降幅度更大。这种下降在经济上是显著的、持续的，可以用群体间信任的侵蚀来解释。受影响的乌克兰公司业绩下降，贸易转向其他国家。我们的研究结果表明，通过社会效应，即使远离战斗地区的冲突也可能对经济造成损害。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191701

 

 

 

3.What Caused Racial Disparities in Particulate Exposure to Fall? New Evidence from the Clean Air Act and Satellite-Based Measures of Air Quality

是什么导致了颗粒物接触下降的种族差异?来自《清洁空气法》和基于卫星的空气质量测量的新证据

Janet Currie

John Voorheis

Reed Walker

This project links administrative census microdata to spatially continuous measures of particulate pollution (PM2.5) to first document and then decompose the key drivers of convergence in black-white pollution exposure differences. We use quantile regression to show that a significant portion of the convergence in Black-White exposure is attributable to differential impacts of the Clean Air Act (CAA) in Black and White communities. Areas with larger Black populations saw greater CAA-related declines in PM2.5. We show that the CAA can account for over 60 percent of the racial convergence in PM2.5 pollution exposure in the United States since 2000.

该项目将行政普查微观数据与空间连续的颗粒物污染(PM2.5)测量联系起来，首先记录并分解黑白污染暴露差异趋同的关键驱动因素。我们使用分位数回归表明，黑白暴露的趋同在很大程度上归因于《清洁空气法》(CAA)在黑人和白人社区的不同影响。黑人人口较多的地区PM2.5出现了与caa有关的更大下降。我们的研究表明，自2000年以来，CAA可以解释美国PM2.5污染暴露的种族趋同的60%以上。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191957

 

 

 

4.Multigenerational Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net: Early Life Exposure to Medicaid and the Next Generation's Health

儿童获得安全网的多代影响:早期生活对医疗补助的影响和下一代的健康

Chloe N. East

Sarah Miller

Marianne Page

Laura R. Wherry

We examine multigenerational impacts of positive in utero health interventions using a new research design that exploits sharp increases in prenatal Medicaid eligibility that occurred in some states. Our analyses are based on US Vital Statistics natality files, which enables linkages between individuals' early life Medicaid exposure and the next generation's health at birth. We find evidence that the health benefits associated with treated generations' early life program exposure extend to later offspring. Our results suggest that the returns on early life health investments may be substantively underestimated.

我们使用一种新的研究设计，利用在一些州发生的产前医疗补助资格的急剧增加，来检查积极的子宫健康干预的多代影响。我们的分析基于美国生命统计出生文件，它使个人早期的医疗补助暴露与下一代出生时的健康之间建立联系。我们发现有证据表明，与接受治疗的世代早期生活计划相关的健康益处延伸到后来的后代。我们的研究结果表明，早期生命健康投资的回报可能被严重低估。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210937

 

5.Unobserved-Offers Bargaining

未观察到的还价

Alexander Wolitzky

I study ultimatum bargaining with imperfectly observed offers. Imperfectly observed offers must be rejected with positive probability, even when the players' preferences are common knowledge. Noisier observations imply a greater risk of rejection. In repeated ultimatum bargaining, the responding party can obtain a positive payoff if his signal of the opponent's offer is also observed by the opponent herself, but not if his signal is private. In alternating-offers bargaining, a player is better off when her own offers are observed more precisely and her opponent's offers are observed less precisely. Possible applications include international relations, regulation, principal-agency, and product quality provision.

我研究了在不完全观察报价的情况下进行最后通牒谈判。我们必须以正概率拒绝不完美的提议，即使玩家的偏好是众所周知的。更嘈杂的观察意味着更大的排斥风险。在反复的最后通牒谈判中，如果对方的出价信号也被对方观察到，则回应方可以获得正的收益，但如果对方的信号是私有的，则不能获得正的收益。在交换出价讨价还价中，当一个牌手自己的出价被更精确地观察而对手的出价被更不精确地观察时，他的处境会更好。可能的应用包括国际关系、法规、委托代理和产品质量规定。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20211524

 

 

 

6.Did US Politicians Expect the China Shock?

美国政界人士是否预料到了“中国冲击”?

Matilde Bombardini

Bingjing Li

Francesco Trebbi

Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. Employing repeated votes in the US House of Representatives on China's normal trade relations (NTR) status during the two decades straddling China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, we apply a moment inequality approach designed to deliver consistent estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. This methodology offers a robust way to test hypotheses about what information politicians have at the time of their decision and to estimate the weight that constituents, ideology, and other factors have in policy making and voting.

政治家的信息集、期望和偏好是他们政策选择的基本但不可观察的决定因素。在中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)的20年期间，美国众议院对中国的正常贸易关系(NTR)地位进行了反复投票，我们采用了时刻不平等方法，旨在对国会议员的信息集在弱信息假设下提供一致的估计。这种方法提供了一种强有力的方法来测试关于政治家在做出决定时拥有哪些信息的假设，并估计选民、意识形态和其他因素在政策制定和投票中所占的权重。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210140

 

 

 

7.Signaling and Discrimination in Collaborative Projects

合作项目中的信号和歧视

Paula Onuchic 

Debraj Ray

We study collaborative work in pairs when potential collaborators are motivated by the reputational implications of (joint or solo) projects. In equilibrium, individual collaboration strategies both influence and are influenced by the public assignment of credit for joint work across the two partners. We investigate the fragility of collaboration to small biases in the public's credit assignment. When collaborators are symmetric, symmetric equilibria are often fragile, and in nonfragile equilibria individuals receive asymmetric collaborative credit based on payoff-irrelevant "identities." We study payoff distributions across identities within asymmetric equilibria, and compare aggregate welfare across symmetric and asymmetric equilibria.

当潜在合作者受到(联合或个人)项目的声誉影响的激励时，我们成对研究协作工作。在均衡状态下，个体合作策略既影响合作伙伴之间共同工作的公开授信，也受其影响。我们调查了在公众的信用分配中，协作对小偏差的脆弱性。当合作者是对称的时，对称均衡往往是脆弱的，而在非脆弱均衡中，个体基于与报酬无关的“身份”获得非对称的合作信用。我们研究了非对称均衡中不同身份的收益分配，并比较了对称和非对称均衡中的总福利。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20211729

 

 

8.Judging Judge Fixed Effects

判断固定效应

Brigham Frandsen

Lars Lefgren

Emily Leslie

We propose a nonparametric test for the exclusion and monotonicity assumptions invoked in instrumental variable (IV) designs based on the random assignment of cases to judges. We show its asymptotic validity and demonstrate its finite-sample performance in simulations. We apply our test in an empirical setting from the literature examining the effects of pretrial detention on defendant outcomes in New York. When the assumptions are not satisfied, we propose weaker versions of the usual exclusion and monotonicity restrictions under which the IV estimator still converges to a proper weighted average of treatment effects.

我们提出了工具变量(IV)设计中使用的排除性和单调性假设的非参数检验，基于案件的随机分配去判定。我们证明了它的渐近有效性，并在仿真中证明了它的有限样本性能。我们将我们的测试应用在一个经验背景下，从文献中考察了纽约审前拘留对被告结果的影响。当假设不满足时，我们提出了通常的排除性和单调性限制的较弱版本，在这种情况下，IV估计量仍然收敛于处理效果的适当加权平均。

.DOI: 10.1257/aer.20201860