外刊听读| 经济学人 难以降低的通货膨胀

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Inflation will be harder to bring down than markets think

通货膨胀将比市场想象的更难降低

 

GIVEN HOW woefully stock and bond portfolios have performed over the past year or so, you may not have noticed that financial markets are floating high on optimism. Yet there is no other way to describe today’s investors, who since the autumn have increasingly bet that inflation, the world economy’s biggest problem, will fall away without much fuss. The result, many think, will be cuts in interest rates towards the end of 2023, which will help the world’s major economies—and most importantly America—avoid a recession. Investors are pricing stocks for a Goldilocks economy in which companies’ profits grow healthily while the cost of capital falls.

 

鉴于股票和债券投资在过去大约一年的时间里表现如此糟糕，你可能没有注意到金融市场正因乐观的情绪而上扬。然而，已经没有方式来描述今天的投资者，他们自秋季以来越来越多地打赌通货膨胀，这个世界经济中的最大问题，将会平静地消失。许多人认为，央行将在2023年底降息，这将有助于世界主要经济体——最重要的是美国——避免衰退。投资者正在“金发女孩经济”股票定价，在这种经济中，公司利润健康增长，而资本成本下降。

 

In anticipation of this welcome turn of events the S&P 500 index of American stocks has risen by nearly 8% since the start of the year. Companies are valued at about 18 times their forward earnings—low by post-pandemic standards, but at the high end of the range that prevailed between 2002 and 2019. And in 2024 those earnings are expected to surge by almost 10%.

 

出于对这一可喜变化的预期，美国标准普尔500指数自年初以来已经上涨了近8%。公司的估值约为其预期收益的18倍——按疫情后的标准来看较低，但处于2002年至2019年期间普遍存在的区间高点。到2024年，这些收入预计将激增近10%。

 

It is not just American markets that have jumped. European stocks have risen even more, thanks partly to a warm winter that has curbed energy prices. Money has poured into emerging economies, which are enjoying blessings of a cheaper dollar, the result of expectations of looser monetary policy in America.

 

不仅仅是美国市场上涨。欧洲股市涨幅更大，部分原因是暖冬抑制了能源价格。资金涌入新兴经济体，它们正享受着美元贬值的好处，这是对美国放松货币政策的预期的结果。

 

This is a rosy picture. Unfortunately, as we explain this week, it is probably misguided. The world’s battle with inflation is far from over. And that means markets could be in for a nasty correction.

 

这是一幅乐观的场景。但不幸的是，正如我们本周所解释的，这很可能误导的结果。世界与通货膨胀的斗争远未结束。这意味着市场可能会出现严重的回调。

 

For a sign of what has got investors’ hopes up, look at America’s latest consumer-price figures, released on February 14th. They showed less inflation over the three months to January than at any time since the start of 2021. Many of the factors which first caused inflation to take off have dissipated. Global supply chains are no longer overwhelmed by surging demand for goods, nor disrupted by the pandemic. As demand for garden furniture and games consoles has cooled, goods prices are falling and there is a glut of microchips. The picture of falling inflation is repeated around the world: the headline rate is falling in 25 of the 36 mainly rich countries in the OECD.

 

要想知道是什么让投资者燃起了希望，请看2月14日发布的美国最新的消费者价格指数（CPI）。数据显示，截至1月份的三个月通胀率低于2021年初以来的任何时候。许多最初导致通货膨胀加剧的因素已经消失。全球供应链不再因商品需求的激增而不堪重负，也不再受疫情的干扰。随着对花园家具和游戏机的需求降温，商品价格下跌，微芯片供过于求。如今的油价比一年前俄乌冲突前还要低。通货膨胀下降的景象在世界各地重复出现:在经合组织的36个主要富裕国家中，有25个国家的整体通货膨胀率在下降。

 

Yet fluctuations in headline inflation often mask the underlying trend. Look into the details, and it is easy to see that the inflation problem is not fixed. America’s “core” prices, which exclude volatile food and energy, grew at an annualised pace of 4.6% over the past three months, and have started gently accelerating. The main source of inflation is now the services sector, which is more exposed to labour costs. In America, Britain, Canada and New Zealand wage growth is still much higher than is consistent with the 2% inflation targets of their respective central banks; pay growth is lower in the euro area, but rising in important economies such as Spain.

 

然而，总体通胀的波动往往掩盖了潜在趋势。细究一下，不难看出通货膨胀问题并没有解决。美国的“核心”价格，不包括波动性较大的食品和能源，在过去的三个月里以每年4.6%的速度增长，并且已经开始缓慢加速。目前，通胀的主要来源是服务业，该行业更容易受到劳动力成本的影响。在美国、英国、加拿大和新西兰，工资增长仍然远远高于与他们各自中央银行2%的通胀目标；欧元区的工资增长较低，但工资在西班牙等重要经济体上升。

 

That should not be a surprise, given the strength of labour markets. Six of the G7 group of big rich countries enjoy an unemployment rate at or close to the lowest seen this century. America’s is the lowest it has been since 1969. It is hard to see how underlying inflation can dissipate while labour markets stay so tight. They are keeping many economies on course for inflation that does not fall below 3-5% or so. That would be less scary than the experience of the past two years. But it would be a big problem for central bankers, who are judged against their targets. It would also blow a hole in investors’ optimistic vision.

 

鉴于劳动力市场的强劲，这不应令人感到意外。由富裕大国组成的七国集团(G7)中，有六个国家的失业率处于或接近本世纪以来的最低水平。美国的失业率是自1969年以来最低的。在劳动力市场依然如此紧张的情况下，很难看出潜在通胀会如何消散。较低的失业率让许多经济体的通货膨胀率保持在3-5%左右。这将没有过去两年的经历那么可怕。但这对央行的从业者来说是个大问题，因为他们是根据自己的目标来评判的。这也将打破投资者的乐观预期。

 

Whatever happens next, market turbulence seems likely. In recent weeks bond investors have begun moving towards a prediction that central banks do not cut interest rates, but instead keep them high. It is conceivable—just—that rates stay high without seriously denting the economy, while inflation continues to fall. If that happens, markets would be buoyed by robust economic growth. Yet persistently higher rates would inflict losses on bond investors, and continuing elevated risk-free returns would make it harder to justify stocks trading at a large multiple of their earnings.

 

无论接下来发生什么，市场动荡似乎都有可能发生。最近几周，债券投资者开始预测央行不会降息，而是将利率保持在高位。可以想象——仅仅是——在通胀继续下降的同时，利率保持在高位而不会严重削弱经济。如果出现这种情况，强劲的经济增长将提振市场。然而，持续走高的利率将给债券投资者带来损失，而持续高企的无风险回报率将使股票以较高市盈率交易变得更加困难。

 

It is far more likely, however, that high rates will hurt the economy. In the modern era central banks have been bad at pulling off “soft landings”, in which they complete a cycle of interest-rate rises without an ensuing recession. History is full of examples of investors wrongly anticipating strong growth towards the end of a bout of monetary tightening, only for a downturn to strike. That has been true even in conditions that are less inflationary than today’s. Were America the only economy to enter recession, much of the rest of the world would still be dragged down, especially if a flight to safety strengthened the dollar.

 

然而，更有可能的是，高利率会损害经济。在现代，中央银行不擅长实现“经济软着陆”,即完成一轮利率上升而没有发生随之而来的衰退。历史上有很多这样的例子:投资者错误地预测，在一轮货币紧缩结束时会出现强劲增长，结果却是经济低迷。即使在通货膨胀率没有今天这么高的情况下也是如此。如果美国是唯一一个进入衰退的经济体，世界其他大部分地区仍将被拖累，尤其是如果投资者的避险行为令美元走强的话。

 

There is also the possibility that central banks, faced with a stubborn inflation problem, do not have the stomach to tolerate a recession. Instead, they might allow inflation to run a little above their targets. In the short run that would bring an economic sugar rush. It might also bring benefits in the longer run: eventually interest rates would settle higher on account of higher inflation, keeping them safely away from zero and giving central banks more monetary ammunition during the next recession. For this reason, many economists think the ideal inflation target is above 2%.

 

还有一种可能性是，面对顽固的通胀问题，各国央行没有勇气容忍经济衰退。相反，他们可能会允许通胀率略高于他们的目标。从短期来看，这将带来一场经济上的热潮。从长期来看，这也可能带来好处:最终，由于通货膨胀率上升，利率会稳定在更高的水平，使其安全地远离零，并在下一次衰退期间给央行更多的货币手段。出于这个原因，许多经济学家认为理想的通胀目标是2%以上。

 

Yet managing such a regime shift without wreaking havoc would be an enormous task for central banks. They have spent the past year emphasising their commitment to their current targets, often set by lawmakers. Ditching one regime and establishing another would be a once-in-a-generation policymaking challenge. Decisiveness would be key; in the 1970s a lack of clarity about the goals of monetary policy led to wild swings in the economy, hurting the public and investors alike.

 

然而，对于央行来说，在不严重破坏现状下转变当今的体制是一项艰巨的任务。过去一年，他们一直在强调对当前目标的承诺，这些目标通常是由立法者设定的。抛弃一种制度，建立另一种制度，将是千载难逢的决策挑战。果断将是破题的关键；上世纪70年代，货币政策目标的不明确导致了经济的剧烈波动，伤害了公众和投资者。

 

Back to Earth

回到地面

 

So far central bankers in the rich world are showing no signs of reversing course. But even if inflation falls or they give up fighting it, policymakers are unlikely to execute a flawless pivot. Whether it is because rates stay high, recession strikes or policy enters a messy period of transition, investors have set themselves up for disappointment.

 

到目前为止，发达国家的央行行长们没有显示出改变政策的迹象。但即使通胀下降或他们放弃对抗通胀，政策制定者也不太可能实施完美的转向。无论是因为利率居高不下、经济衰退来袭还是政策进入混乱的过渡期，投资者都让自己失望了。