Daily Translation #6

阳光地带曾是美国人退休后的好去处，但气候变化改变了这一切

珍妮·兰根·布里斯是一名61岁的退休人员。她居住在佛罗里达的那不勒斯，常在每天早上7点打网球。她说即使在这么早的时间，球场上也是酷热难耐。

这里的酷热与康涅狄格州的韦斯特波特市相去甚远，她在那里与丈夫把三个孩子抚养成人。与她的家乡纽约州水牛城相比则更是弗如远甚，水牛城因其冬季的暴风雪和极端低温而闻名。

布里斯仍然很喜欢在佛罗里达西南部的生活，她在6年前搬到这里照看自己年迈的父母。但气候变化带来了挑战。据说由于海平面的上升，那不勒斯是全美最有可能受其影响而造成房屋财产损失的城市之一。由于极端高温，布里斯说她“一天能换两三件衣服。”

2023年的夏天，那不勒斯和美国大部分地区都经受着烤炉一般的高温。这个夏天，高达三位数的温度困扰着千万美国人，而且这种现象将会成为阳光地带（美国南部地区）的常态。

今年7,8月份是美国有史以来最热的夏天，在南部和西南部州尤为明显。一周又一周的酷热天气困扰着老年人，他们中许多人选择搬迁到阳光地带享受暖冬，却忽视了由气候变化带来的夏季极端高温。

厌倦了累人又危险的铲雪工作，许多退休人员憧憬着像是佛罗里达，亚利桑那，北卡罗来纳，德克萨斯和南卡罗来纳等一些退休圣地。但阳光地带的老年人体验到了意料之外的温暖天气。

2023年夏天破纪录的热浪使得这些地点变成了“人间地狱”，一位受无情高温摆布的居无定所的凤凰城民众说到。

在凤凰城，突破110度的高温持续了惊人的31天。不只有亚利桑那：厄尔巴索和德克萨斯持续了44天的三位数高温；迈阿密连续46天的气温超过了100华氏度。当然，许多人在家吹空调，但是也有人希望在退休后可以外出散步和运动——今年夏季的高温使这些都成为了泡影。

帮助退休人员计划他们晚年的一些机构和专家已经开始建议他们舍弃原来的退休计划，推荐他们去那些受全球变暖影响较小的地区。

我们并不是仅仅再谈退休人员的安置。极端高温给每个人都带来了灾难，但对老年人的影响尤为显著。今年夏天，亚利桑那州马里科帕先有24人死于高温相关事件，其中一半以上的人年龄在65岁以上。中暑对于老年人来说极其危险，它会使健康状况恶化，引发包括心肺和肾脏疾病，甚至还会诱发精神错乱。糟糕的空气质量使得老年人呼吸困难，尤其是对那些已经有呼吸短促问题的人来说。即使温度在80华氏度，也会对一些有潜在健康问题的老年人造成危险。

处方药的服用使得老年人对于高温更加敏感。抗胆碱能药——一类用于治疗胃肠道疾病，慢性阻塞性肺病和其他疾病的药物——会弱化老年人的排汗和降温能力，β受体阻滞剂和利尿剂会导致脱水。

同时，长时间待在空调房中会使老年人情绪低落和感到寂寞。开空调所产生的高额电费对于一个固定收入的家庭也是一笔不小的开支。即使不开空调，一些移动能力受身体状况限制的老人也很难前往有冷气的公共场所——如果他们附近有的话。

长远来看，像2023年的夏季热浪会不会使老年人不敢前往南方的退休圣地？或者说，他们是否会认为2023年的夏季高温只是一次特例，是否依旧会成群结队地去诸如佛罗里达和亚利桑那这些地方，是否会抛开气候问题，优先考虑康乐设施和低生活成本等因素？这些问题尚无定论，但是我们强烈建议老年人在他们的搬迁计划中重点考虑气候因素。我们的研究表明阳光地带的极端高温是人为造成气候变化的直接结果，并或将成为常态。

如果老年人持续迁移到亚利桑那，佛罗里达和加利福尼亚的沙漠地区，持续上升的高温和老龄化人口所产生的老年人健康需求会为这些州、城市和县镇带来前所未有的压力。这包括投资建设便利的带有冷气的公共中心，训练急救人员以帮助在高温或其他极端天气影响下不愿出户的老年人。

另一方面，老年人应不应该住在更凉爽的地区，像是新英格兰，临近太平洋的西北地区和上中西部地区，以躲避阳光地带的极端高温？没有这个必要。北部地区的气温可能会更凉爽，但实际上升温也更加快。以“人度日”（person-degree days）为指标来衡量人们长期暴露在高温下的时间，到2050年这一指标将在全国范围内增长两倍。但在一些位于大西洋中部和上中西部的州，比如密歇根和威斯康星，这一指标将增长5倍，在新英格兰将增长6倍。

我们的研究只关注热暴露，但气候变化也会导致其他的极端天气，比如干旱，山火，飓风，洪水和暴雪等。一些资源像是气候复原力和适应能力测绘（CMRA）能够提供退休目的地的气候信息。

退休者还应当调查目标退休地所在州是否有涵盖到老年人特殊需求的健全的气候方案。退休者需要了解目的地是否有高温或其他天气的预警系统，目标社区附近是否有带冷气的公共中心，其城市绿地是否能缓解城市“热岛效应”，为抵御高温是否能申请类似低收入家庭能源补贴项目的补助。

未来，城市规划者和决策者必须做好准备，通过对气候变化的知识、应对能力和基础设施进行投资，来应对气候变化影响和人口老龄化所带来的双重挑战。

气候系统的惯性意味着温度上升是不可避免的，同时也是全国性的。谨慎地调查和计划可以帮助退休者找到他们能够安享晚年的地方。

Original Article:

The Sunbelt was the retirement destination of choice. That was before climate change

Retiree Jeanne Langan Burris, 61, a resident of Naples, Florida, often starts her daily tennis match at 7 a.m. Even at that early hour, however, she says she sometimes finds herself baking on the court in oppressively hot temperatures.

The torrid heat is a far cry from Westport, Connecticut, where Burris and her husband raised their three children. It’s even further removed from Buffalo, New York — a city renowned for blizzards and brutally cold temperatures — where she grew up.

Burris still loves life in southwest Florida, where she moved a half-dozen years ago to be nearer her aging parents, but climate change has brought challenges. Naples is said to be one of the US cities most likely to suffer the loss of home and property because of rising sea levels. And because of the intense heat, Burris said, “I change two or three times a day,” she said.

The summer of 2023 continues to punish Naples – and huge swaths of the United States – with furnace-like weather. Triple-digit heat afflicted tens of millions of people across the center of the country this summer and may prove to be a permanent feature of life in the Sunbelt.

July and August, which saw the hottest summer on record in the US, were particularly brutal in the southern and southwestern states. And week upon week of blisteringly hot weather is especially worrisome for older adults, many of whom chose to relocate to Sunbelt regions in search of balmy winter weather – never counting on the dangerously elevated summer heat that has come with climate change.

Visions of ditching the wearying (and potentially dangerous) task of shoveling snow from their driveways have long attracted retirees to places like Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Texas and South Carolina, which are the most popular retirement magnets. But older adults in the Sunbelt got warmer weather than they bargained for.

The record-breaking heat waves of summer 2023 (not to mention the already established pattern of temperature records tumbling summer after summer in recent years) has made these localities seem like “hell on earth,” in the words of one unhoused resident of Phoenix who found himself at the mercy of the unrelenting heat.

In Phoenix, 110-degree-plus temperatures continued for an astonishing 31 consecutive days. Arizona is not alone: El Paso, Texas, saw 44 consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures, and the heat index in Miami topped 100 degrees for 46 straight days. Many people find respite indoors in air conditioning of course, but part of the appeal of retirement is being able to stroll and do sports out-of-doors – something that this summer’s stifling heat has made all but impossible.

Organizations and professionals who help retirees plan their golden years have begun counseling that they toss out the old retirement playbook and consider retiring in places where the effects of global warming have so far been less pronounced.

We’re not just talking about personal comfort. Extreme heat is miserable for everyone, but can be particularly lethal for older adults. More than half of the two dozen people who died of heat-related causes in Maricopa County, Arizona, this summer were 65 or older. Heat stress is especially harmful to older people, worsening common health conditions like heart, lung and kidney disease, and even triggering delirium. Poor air quality makes it hard to breathe, especially for those who already struggle with shortness of breath. Even temperatures as low as 80 degrees can be dangerous for older people with underlying health problems.

Prescription medications make older people even more sensitive to heat: Anticholinergics — a class of drugs prescribed for gastrointestinal conditions, COPD and other ailments — reduce their capacity to sweat and cool down, while beta-blockers and--diuretics can cause dehydration.

Meanwhile, being confined to an air-conditioned apartment for days on end can leave older adults depressed and isolated. High energy bills that go along with the air conditioning that makes life bearable in warmer climates can also be a significant burden for those living on a fixed income. And seniors with limited physical mobility may find it difficult to travel to a public cooling center — if they are lucky enough to have one nearby.

Will heat waves like the summer of 2023 scare away older adults from southern retirement destinations over the long haul? Or will retirees continue to flock to places like Florida and Arizona in the hope that the summer 2023 swelter is a fluke — and prioritize other enticements like recreational amenities and a low cost of living? The jury is still out, but we urge older adults to seriously factor climate issues into their relocation plans. Our research shows that Sunbelt heat extremes — a direct consequence of human-induced climate change — are here to stay.

If older adults continue to migrate to Arizona, Florida and desert regions of California, the dual forces of rising temperatures and aging populations will place unprecedented demands on cities, counties and states to meet older adults’ pressing health needs. That includes investing in conveniently located cooling centers and training first responders to work with adults who may be reluctant to leave their homes during a heat wave or other weather emergency.

One the other hand, should older adults living in cooler locales like New England, the Pacific Northwest and the upper Midwest stay put to avoid the heat extremes of the Sunbelt? Not necessarily. Northern climates may be cooler, but they are actually heating up faster. Chronic exposure of populations to heat, measured by an indicator called person-degree days, will triple nationwide by 2050 — but will increase by five times in the Mid-Atlantic and upper midwestern states like Michigan and Wisconsin, and a factor of six in New England.

Our research focused on heat exposure only, but climate change drives other extreme weather events, such as droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding and intense blizzards. Resources like Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation provides helpful weather-related information on potential retirement destinations.

Retirees also should research whether a potential future home state has a well-developed climate plan that considers older adults’ distinctive needs. Does your ideal destination have heat and/or weather advisory warning systems? Does your dream neighborhood have cooling (or warming) centers close by? Are there urban green spaces like parks that can protect against the urban “heat island” effect? Could you access supports like Low Income Home Energy Assistance Programs for hardening your home against weather extremes?

In the future, city planners and policymakers must prepare to face the twin challenges of climate change impacts and population aging by investing in knowledge, capacity and infrastructure for adaptation.

The climate system’s inertia means that warming is inevitable, with potential effects nationwide. Careful research and planning can help retirees find a home where they can live out their golden years in relative safety and comfort.

 原网址：

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/01/opinions/seniors-retirees-arizona-florida-climate-change-heat-wave-carr-wing-falchetta/index.html