Turning inward

Why the old development strategy of import substitution has gained a new lease of life

As poor-country politicians often point out when pressed by rich-world leaders to liberalise, many of today’s advanced economies practised elements of an ISI strategy as they industrialised. Alexander Hamilton, America’s first treasury secretary, used tariffs to protect domestic manufactures and reduce its dependence on Britain. In the 19th century European rivals worried that abundant British manufactures would stunt industrial development and leave them at a permanent military disadvantage. Governmentserected tariff barriers and mobilised domestic capital, often squeezed out of the agricultural sector, towards state-supported industry. Russia and Japan followed western Europe in promoting domestic industry as a matter of national security.

Stunt /stʌnt/ n. 噱头，手腕；绝技vt. 阻碍…的正常生长或发展vi. 表演特技；作惊人表演

Erect /ɪˈrekt/ adj. 竖立的，笔直的；因性刺激而勃起的；（毛发）竖起的v. （使）竖立；建造；创立；安装；勃起

Still, past experience also shows why the renewed interest in ISI may be misguided. Its intellectual heyday was in the 1950S, when economists like Raül Prebisch and Gunnar Myrdal (the latter a Nobel prizewinner) argued against a laissez-faire approach to trade in developing economies. Their views were informed by the constraints of their era. Poor countries were desperately short of hard currency with which to obtain imports after the second world war. The replacement of some imports with domestic production was seen as a way to ration foreign exchange.More generally, advocates for ISI rejected the idea that specialisation and trade would leave every economy better off. Poor countries that stuck to their comparative advantage would remain exporters of primary products for ever, it was thought, never making the leap to industrialisation and the higher incomes it would bring.

Heydayy   n. /ˈheɪdeɪ/  最为强大（或成功、繁荣）的时期 • In its heyday , the company ran trains every fifteen minutes. 公司在最兴隆时期每隔十五分钟就开出一列火车。

laissez-faire：自由放任，一种经济模式，反对政府干预商业，强调遵循商业自有的经济规律

The flaws of ISI rather quickly became apparent, though. Many governments used it to bestow favours upon domestic industries based on political self-interest rather than rational economic calculation. The enthusiasts among economists lost interest. Tariff barriers left some countries nearly closed off to trade. Meanwhile, import-substituting economies in Latin America and South Asia fell behind a handful of others that opted instead to promote exports made with abundant cheap labour. Export-orientation was not a sure route to development; success stories like South Korea and Taiwan were rare before the emerging-market acceleration of the 1990s. Nor was it a laissez-faire endeavour; the governments of the Asian Tigers meddled extensively in their economies, subsidising favoured industries and firms. But global competition placed relentless pressure on exporters, forcing them to become more efficient and encouraging the acquisition of technical know-how. Those in ISI economies, sheltered behind high tariffs, tended instead to be small, inefficient and complacent.

Bestow  v. /bɪˈstəʊ/ ~ sth (on/upon sb) （将…）给予，授予，献给 • It was a title bestowed upon him by the king. 那是国王赐给他的头衔。

a handful of 一把；少量的；一小部分

Opt  v. /ɒpt/  ~ (for/against sth) 选择；挑选 • After graduating she opted for a career in music. 毕业后她选择了从事音乐工作。

1.ˌOPT ˈIN (TO STH) 决定加入；选择参与

2.ˌOPT ˈOUT (OF STH) (1) 决定退出；选择不参与 •Employees may opt out of the company's pension plan. 雇员可选择不参加该公司的养老金计划。(2) (英国的学校或医院) 选择不受地方当局管理

meddle  v. /ˈmedl/  1.~ (in/with sth)管闲事；干涉；干预 •He had no right to meddle in her affairs. 他无权干涉她的事情。2.~ (with sth)  瞎搞，乱弄（尤指不应管或不懂的事物）•Somebody had been meddling with her computer. 有人擅自摆弄过她的电脑。

 relentless  adj. /rɪˈlentləs/  1.不停的；持续强烈的；不减弱的 •her relentless pursuit of perfection 她对完美的不懈追求 •The sun was relentless. 太阳还是那么热。 2.不放弃的；严格的；苛刻的；无情的 •a relentless enemy 残酷的敌人

complacent  adj. /kəmˈpleɪsnt/ ~ (about sb/sth) 自满的；自鸣得意的；表现出自满的• a dangerously complacent attitude to the increase in unemployment 对失业增加抱满不在乎的危险态度

A matter of great imports

What does all this mean for the revival in ISI today? In economies with large domestic markets and capable states, import substitution may well allow governments to achieve strategic goals without nudging firms into growth-sapping complacency. China probably fits the bill. In India, with its poorer and less integrated domestic market, the strategy is riskier.

Nudge /nʌdʒ/  v. （用肘）轻推；轻撞；推开；往前挤；劝说；接近n. 推动；（用肘）轻推；触发；激起；说服

nudge ˈnudge, ˌwink ˈwink / a ˌnudge and a ˈwink 眉来眼去

•They've been spending a lot of time together, nudge nudge, wink wink. 他们长期厮混在一起，卿卿我我的

sap /sæp/ 

名词1.（植物体内运送养分的）液，汁 •Maple syrup is made from sap extracted from the sugar maple tree. 槭糖浆是用糖槭树中提取的树液制成的。2.笨蛋；易上当的人

动词 ~ sth~ sb (of sth) 使虚弱；削弱；逐渐破坏 •The hot sun sapped our energy. 火辣辣的太阳烤得我们虚软无力。 •Years of failure have sapped him of his confidence. 连年失败使他逐渐丧失了自信

In smaller economies with weak institutions, however, ISI-related policies are doomed to fail.The consumers, competition and technologies that developing economies can only find on global markets are a crucial prerequisite for their industrialisation. If the world’s biggest economies focus on their own strategic interests alone, they will deprive others of access to these precious resources and the golden age of emerging-market growth will become an ever more faded memory.

prerequisite  n. /ˌpriːˈrekwəzɪt/ ~ (for/of/to sth)先决条件；前提；必备条件

译文

As poor-country politicians often point out when pressed by rich-world leaders to liberalise, many of today’s advanced economies practised elements of an ISI strategy as they industrialised. Alexander Hamilton, America’s first treasury secretary, used tariffs to protect domestic manufactures and reduce its dependence on Britain. In the 19th century European rivals worried that abundant British manufactures would stunt industrial development and leave them at a permanent military disadvantage. Governments erected tariff barriers and mobilised domestic capital, often squeezed out of the agricultural sector, towards state-supported industry. Russia and Japan followed western Europe in promoting domestic industry as a matter of national security.

正如贫穷国家的政治家们经常指出的那样，当富裕国家的领导人敦促穷国实行自由化时，许多当今的发达经济体在工业化过程中实践了“替代出口工业化”。Alexander Hamilton，美国第一位财政部长采用关税政策保护国内制造商及用来减少对英国的依赖。在19世纪，欧洲的竞争对手担心英国完善的制造业会阻碍他们的工业发展，使他们在军事上永远处于劣势。政府竖起贸易壁垒，动用国家资本转向国家主导的工业化，其资本常常以压榨农业的方式获得。俄罗斯和日本追随西欧的步伐，从国家安全的角度推动国内工业化。

Still, past experience also shows why the renewed interest in ISI may be misguided. Its intellectual heyday was in the 1950S, when economists like Raül Prebisch and Gunnar Myrdal (the latter a Nobel prizewinner) argued against a laissez-faire approach to trade in developing economies. Their views were informed by the constraints of their era. Poor countries were desperately short of hard currency with which to obtain imports after the second world war. The replacement of some imports with domestic production was seen as a way to ration foreign exchange.More generally, advocates for ISI rejected the idea that specialisation and trade would leave every economy better off. Poor countries that stuck to their comparative advantage would remain exporters of primary products for ever, it was thought, never making the leap to industrialisation and the higher incomes it would bring.

当然过去经验显示重燃的“替代进口工业化”战略有可能是歧途。它在学术上的巅峰时期是在20世纪50年代，当时Raül Prebisch与诺贝尔获奖者Gunnar Myrdal还在反对与发展中国家贸易采取自由放任的方式。他们的观点受自身所在的时代约束。二战后穷国极度缺乏硬通货用以进口商品。用国内产品替代一些进口产品被视为一种限制外汇的方式。更通俗的说，“替代进口工业化”的提倡者拒绝了专业化和贸易会让每个经济体变得更好的观点。人们认为，坚持自己比较优势的贫穷国家将永远保持初级产品出口国的地位，永远无法实现工业化的飞跃和工业化带来的更高收入。

The flaws of ISI rather quickly became apparent, though. Many governments used it to bestow favours upon domestic industries based on political self-interest rather than rational economic calculation. The enthusiasts among economists lost interest. Tariff barriers left some countries nearly closed off to trade. Meanwhile, import-substituting economies in Latin America and South Asia fell behind a handful of others that opted instead to promote exports made with abundant cheap labour. Export-orientation was not a sure route to development; success stories like South Korea and Taiwan were rare before the emerging-market acceleration of the 1990s. Nor was it a laissez-faire endeavour; the governments of the Asian Tigers meddled extensively in their economies, subsidising favoured industries and firms. But global competition placed relentless pressure on exporters, forcing them to become more efficient and encouraging the acquisition of technical know-how. Those in ISI economies, sheltered behind high tariffs, tended instead to be small, inefficient and complacent.

然而，“替代进口工业化”的缺陷很快就显现出来了。许多政府基于自身政治利益，而非理性的经济考量，利用它来给国内产业提供好处。经济学家中的狂热爱好者也失去了兴趣。关税壁垒几乎让一些国家近似贸易锁国。与此同时，拉美与南亚采取替代进口的经济体落后于少数几个采取利用丰富廉价劳动力促进出口的经济体。出口主导型不一定是发展的正确道路。在90年代新兴市场加速发展之前，韩国和台湾地区的成功非常罕见。这也不是自由放任政策下的结果，亚洲四小龙的政府对他们的经济进行了广泛的干预，补贴偏好的行业和企业。但全球化的竞争为出口商带来了无穷无尽的压力，迫使他们变得更有效率，刺激他们获取技术工艺知识。在采取“替代进口策略”的经济体中，被高关税保护，将会变得弱小、缺乏效率以及自满。

A matter of great imports

What does all this mean for the revival in ISI today? In economies with large domestic markets and capable states, import substitution may well allow governments to achieve strategic goals without nudging firms into growth-sapping complacency. China probably fits the bill. In India, with its poorer and less integrated domestic market, the strategy is riskier.

这对现在复兴的ISI策略意味着什么？在拥有巨大国内市场和强政府的经济体中，替代进口非常有可能让政府达成战略目标，而不需要推动企业陷入“削弱增长式的自满”。中国应该满足要求。而印度，由于相对较差而且不完整的国内市场，这个策略会具有更大风险。

In smaller economies with weak institutions, however, ISI-related policies are doomed to fail.The consumers, competition and technologies that developing economies can only find on global markets are a crucial prerequisite for their industrialisation. If the world’s biggest economies focus on their own strategic interests alone, they will deprive others of access to these precious resources and the golden age of emerging-market growth will become an ever more faded memory.

管理相对较差的小经济体，替代进口相关的政策注定失败。发展中国家工业化的关键前提条件：消费者、竞争以及技术只能在全球化的市场中找到。如果全球最大的一些经济体只关注自身战略利益，他们也会剥夺他人获取这些资源的机会。新兴经济体增长的黄金年代将会变成一段越来越褪色的记忆。

经济学人11月刊

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