Electric shock of the new—How to be the next Tesla

A traffic jam of upstarts is vying to follow in Elon Musk’s tyre tracks. Does any stand a chance? 

（接上一部分）

The basic blueprint for survival involves three elements. The upstarts must first find a starting niche from which they can expand. They then need actually to produce cars at scale. Finally, they have to create a sales-and-distribution network. Most will fail at one or more of these steps. Ironically, those with the best odds of emulating Tesla's success may be the ones that look least like it.

the best odds of ：最有胜算的

emulate v.   /ˈemjuleɪt/ 1.努力赶上；同…竞争 •She hopes to emulate her sister's sporting achievements. 她希望在运动成绩方面赶上她姐姐。2.(computing 计) (计算机程序等) 仿真；模仿

Start with picking your battlefield. That could be geographic. Philippe Houchois of Jefferies, another investment bank, reckons that the next Tesla will come from China. Consumers hungry for new tech and a government keen to support electrification have given China's insurgents a head-start. Nio, the largest of the lot, made 44,ooo cars in 2o2o. It is valued at $69bn. The market capitalisations of Xpeng and Li, respectively $28bn and $22bn, are also juicy. Rich access to capital helps fund expansion at home and abroad. Xpeng has already started selling cars in Norway, home to Europe's most enthusiastic EV buyers. Nio is about to join it.

a head-start：有利开端，先行一步的优势

Even more important than geography is choosing the right market segment. Tesla was not the first to make EVs but it was the first to make big and pricey premium ones where the high cost of the battery could be absorbed. Many new firms are also aiming at premium SUVs and saloons where profit margins are fattest. But competition is hotting up from established carmakers such as Volkswagen's Audi and Porsche brands, as well as Mercedes. In April Geely, a Chinese firm with global ambitions, launched a premium electric marque called Zeekr. The mass market, meanwhile, is likewise busy, with GM and Ford the latest to announce a big electric push.

SUV：abbr. 越野车（sport-utility vehicles）   hot up ：加剧，变热

Saloon  n. /səˈluːn/1.小轿车；（三厢）四门轿车 •a five-seater family saloon 五座家庭式轿车；2.（旧时美国西部和加拿大的）酒吧，酒馆；3.（客轮上的）交谊厅

Volkswagen/ˈvoʊkswæɡən/ 大众汽车                  Porsche /pɔːʃ/ 保时捷

Mercedes /mə'sɪdi:z/ 奔驰汽车                            Geely：吉利汽车

Other segments may therefore be a better bet. One is light commercial vehicles, demand for which has been boosted by the pandemice-commerce boom. Alastair Hayfield of Interact Analysis, a consultancy,  sees "no Tesla yet" for delivery vans. Carmakers are merely popping EV power trains into existing products—an unhappy compromise that affects performance. That leaves opportunities for firms like Arrival and Rivian. Another potentially lucrative niche is the hypercar. Wealthy petrol-heads seem willing to fork out $2m or so to add to their stables. Rimac and Pininfarina of Italy also see these cars as test-beds for EV technology to sell to other car firms. China's Silk-FAW considers its Hongqi S9 hybrid as a gateway to the mass market.

lucrative  adj.   /ˈluːkrətɪv/赚大钱的；获利多的 • a lucrative business/contract/market 利润丰厚的生意╱合同╱市场

fork out (为某事物) 大把掏钱 •Visitors to the castle had to fork out for a guidebook. 参观城堡的游客得为一本旅游指南掏很多钱。

test-bed：试验台

Silk-FAW：一汽集团与美国SilkEV合资成立的Silk-FAW；FAW一汽集团

Identifying the right segment may not be enough, however. Brian Gu, president of Xpeng, admits that the new firms must offer something truly different. For years the industry's technologically stodgier incumbents "didn't realise it was a tech race", says Peter Rawlinson, who runs Lucid. As cars become more like personal electronic devices, being tech firms first and carmakers second may confer an advantage. Foxconn's boss, Young Liu, has argued that the driving experience of the future will be "software-driven and software-defined".

stodgy adj. /ˈstɒdʒi/1.吃下去感觉撑的；易饱的；2.滞涩的；古板的；枯燥无味的

incumbent /ɪnˈkʌmbənt/在职者；现任者•the present incumbent of the White House 现任美国总统

Confer  v./kənˈfɜː(r)/  1.~ (with sb) (on/about sth) 商讨；协商；交换意见 •He wanted to confer with his colleagues before reaching a decision. 他想与他的同事先商议一下再作出决定。 2. ~ sth (on/upon sb) 授予（奖项、学位、荣誉或权利）•An honorary degree was conferred on him by Oxford University in 2001. 牛津大学于 2001 年授予他荣誉学位。 

译文

The basic blueprint for survival involves three elements. The upstarts must first find a starting niche from which they can expand. They then need actually to produce cars at scale. Finally, they have to create a sales-and-distribution network. Most will fail at one or more of these steps. Ironically, those with the best odds of emulating Tesla's success may be the ones that look least like it.

车企求生存最基础的行动方案需要包括三个要素。新贵们首先需要在他们可以扩张的地方找到盈利点；其次，规模生产汽车；最后，需要建立销售和分销网络。大多数会在其中一个或者多个步骤失败。讽刺的是，最可能成为下一个特斯拉的可能是最不像特斯拉的企业。

Start with picking your battlefield. That could be geographic. Philippe Houchois of Jefferies, another investment bank, reckons that the next Tesla will come from China. Consumers hungry for new tech and a government keen to support electrification have given China's insurgents a head-start. Nio, the largest of the lot, made 44,ooo cars in 2o2o. It is valued at $69bn. The market capitalisations of Xpeng and Li, respectively $28bn and $22bn, are also juicy. Rich access to capital helps fund expansion at home and abroad. Xpeng has already started selling cars in Norway, home to Europe's most enthusiastic EV buyers. Nio is about to join it.

从选择战场开始。这可能是地理上的。另一家投资银行杰富瑞(Jefferies)的菲利普•霍乔斯(Philippe Houchois)认为，下一个特斯拉将来自中国。消费者对新科技的渴望、政府热衷支持电气化让中国的汽车行业挑战者们拥有先发优势。蔚来汽车，其中最大，2020年生产了44000辆车。它的估值是690亿美元。小鹏汽车和理想汽车的市场价值分别是280亿和220亿美元，也非常可观。多样的资本渠道帮助企业进行海内外扩张。小鹏汽车已经开始在挪威销售汽车，挪威有欧洲电动汽车最狂热的买家。蔚来汽车也打算加入其中。

Even more important than geography is choosing the right market segment. Tesla was not the first to make EVs but it was the first to make big and pricey premium ones where the high cost of the battery could be absorbed. Many new firms are also aiming at premium SUVs and saloons where profit margins are fattest. But competition is hotting up from established carmakers such as Volkswagen's Audi and Porsche brands, as well as Mercedes. In April Geely, a Chinese firm with global ambitions, launched a premium electric marque called Zeekr. The mass market, meanwhile, is likewise busy, with GM and Ford the latest to announce a big electric push.

比地理要素更重要的是选择正确的市场范围。特斯拉不是第一家开始做电动汽车的，但确是第一家做大、且有高价优势负担蓄电池的高成本。很多新公司也瞄准高端商务车和轿车这些利润肥美的地方。但与老牌汽车企业例如大众、保时捷以及奔驰等竞争升级。今年4月，一家有全球野心的中国车企—吉利，发布了一款高端电动品牌汽车，叫做Zeekr。与此同时，大众市场同样繁忙，通用汽车和福特最新宣布了一项大型的电力项目。

Other segments may therefore be a better bet. One is light commercial vehicles, demand for which has been boosted by the pandemice-commerce boom. Alastair Hayfield of Interact Analysis, a consultancy,  sees "no Tesla yet" for delivery vans. Carmakers are merely popping EV power trains into existing products—an unhappy compromise that affects performance. That leaves opportunities for firms like Arrival and Rivian. Another potentially lucrative niche is the hypercar. Wealthy petrol-heads seem willing to fork out $2m or so to add to their stables. Rimac and Pininfarina of Italy also see these cars as test-beds for EV technology to sell to other car firms. China's Silk-FAW considers its Hongqi S9 hybrid as a gateway to the mass market.

因此，其他细分市场可能是更好的选择。其中之一是轻型商用车，疫情期间，电子商务的繁荣推动了对轻型商用车的需求。咨询公司互动分析(Interact Analysis)的纳尔斯泰尔•海菲尔德(Alastair Hayfield)认为，送货货车领域“还没有特斯拉”。汽车制造商只是在现有汽车产品中加入电动汽车动力系统——这是一个影响性能的令人不快的妥协。这给像Arrival和Rivian这样的公司留下了机会。另一个丰厚的利润点是超级汽车。富有的汽油爱好者们似乎愿意支付200万美元左右来增加他们的车库。意大利的Rimac和Pininfarina也将这些汽车视为卖给其他车场电动技术的试验台。中国的Silk-FAW将其红旗S9混合动力超跑视为进入大众市场的门户。

Identifying the right segment may not be enough, however. Brian Gu, president of Xpeng, admits that the new firms must offer something truly different. For years the industry's technologically stodgier incumbents "didn't realise it was a tech race", says Peter Rawlinson, who runs Lucid. As cars become more like personal electronic devices, being tech firms first and carmakers second may confer an advantage. Foxconn's boss, Young Liu, has argued that the driving experience of the future will be "software-driven and software-defined".

确认正确的市场范围有可能还不够，小鹏汽车的董事长顾宏地(Hongdi Brian Gu)承认新兴企业必须有一些不一样的卖点。Lucid掌门人Peter Rawlinson表示：多年以来，汽车行业古板的当权者并没有意识到汽车行业的竞争是科技上的竞争。随着汽车变得越来越像消费者的个人电子设备，先是科技企业之后进入汽车制造业似乎更有优势。富士康的老板刘勇（young liu 音译）认为未来驾驶体验由软件定义和驱动。