【每天一篇经济学人】Maui wildfires 夏威夷大火（2023年第51期

文章来源：《经济学人》Jul 29th 2023 期 United States 栏目 Maui wildfires 夏威夷大火

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When king Kamehameha I united the Hawaiian islands in the early 1800s, he made Lahaina the capital of his new kingdom. The seaside city on western Maui was his crown jewel. Missionaries and whalers flocked to its shores. Kings and queens were buried in the graveyard of Waiola church. Later, it became a tourist destination. Surf shops, bars and museums lined its streets; 13,000 people called Lahaina home. Now an ashen moonscape lies between the mountains and the sea where it once stood.

当卡美哈美哈国王一世在19世纪初统一夏威夷群岛时，他将拉海纳定为新王国的首都。毛伊岛西部的海滨城市是他的重城。传教士和捕鲸者蜂拥而至。国王和王后都埋葬在怀奥拉教堂的墓地里。后来，这里成了旅游胜地。冲浪店、酒吧和博物馆鳞次栉比；1.3万人以拉海纳为家。如今，曾经矗立的山脉和海洋之间的拉海纳，变成了一片灰暗的月球地貌。

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The wildfire that swept through town on August 8th was indiscriminate. Scores of birds lie dead on the ground throughout the burn zone, felled by flames or the toxins they released. White picket fences melted. For many homes, the only thing left is the scorched husk of a washing machine sitting amid rubble where a laundry room once stood. Skeletons of cars sit where they were overtaken by the inferno. Some drivers abandoned their vehicles, climbed over the seawall and threw themselves into the Pacific to escape the flames.

8月8日，野火无情地席卷了整个小镇。成群的鸟类尸躺在燃烧区的地上，被火焰或火焰释放的毒素夺命。白色尖桩篱笆融化了。对于许多房屋而言，唯一留下的只有烧焦的洗衣机残骸，它们坐落在曾经有洗衣间的废墟之中。汽车的骨架停靠在火海袭来之处。一些司机放弃车辆，翻过海堤，跳入太平洋，逃离熊熊烈焰。

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As of August 16th the fire had killed at least 111 people, making it the deadliest blaze America has seen in more than a century. The death toll is certain to climb. Rescue crews and dozens of cadaver dogs are still searching the burned area. More than 1,000 people are missing.

截至8月16日，火灾已造成至少111人死亡，成为美国一个多世纪以来最致命的大火。死亡人数肯定还会上升。救援队伍和数十只寻尸犬仍在燃烧区域进行搜寻。目前已有1000多人失踪。

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Several factors contributed to Lahaina’s demise. Drought worsened rapidly on Maui this summer; rainfall has declined in Hawaii over the past 30 years as the climate has warmed; invasive (and flammable) grasses have flourished on what used to be farmland; and high winds brought by Hurricane Dora provided the right conditions for a blaze to form—and to spread. All that was needed was a spark. What ignited the fire is still uncertain. But testimony and videos from Lahaina residents suggest that a utility pole snapped in the wind, breaking a power line. Sparks quickly became flames.

几个因素导致了拉海纳的大火。今年夏天，毛伊岛的旱情迅速恶化；过去 30 年来，随着气候变暖，夏威夷的降雨量逐渐减少；入侵性（且易燃）牧草在曾经的农田上生长茂盛；飓风“多拉”带来的强风为大火的形成和蔓延提供了合适的条件。万事俱备，只需一个火花。引燃火灾的具体原因尚不清楚。但拉海纳居民的证词和视频显示，一根电线杆在风中折断，导致电线断裂。火花迅速变成了火焰。

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Besides the cause of the fire, two questions are playing on the minds of Maui residents. First, is why the island’s warning system did not alert locals to the danger. Outdoor sirens throughout the islands are meant to be used to warn Hawaiians of all manner of hazards, from tsunamis to wildfires to terrorist threats. But as flames consumed 2,200 buildings (which would cost $5.5bn to rebuild) all 80 sirens in Maui County were silent.

除了火灾原因之外，毛伊岛居民还关心两个问题。首先是岛上的警报系统为何没有提醒当地居民注意危险。夏威夷各处的户外警报器本应用于警示夏威夷人各种危害，包括海啸、山火和恐怖威胁。但当火势吞噬了2200栋建筑（重建需要55 亿美元）时，毛伊县的所有 80 个警报器都鸦雀无声。

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Herman Andaya, Maui’s emergency management chief, has defended the decision not to use the sirens, arguing that locals might have sought safety on higher ground, as they would for a tsunami, and ended up in the middle of the fire.

毛伊岛应急管理负责人赫尔曼·安达亚辩称，决定不使用警报器是因为当地居民可能会前往高地求生，就像面对海啸时那样，结果可能会陷入火海之中。

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Yet the flames swallowed the town anyway. That the fire took Lahaina by surprise should serve as a warning, both for places accustomed to extreme weather, and those that are not. A warming climate means disasters such as fires and floods will become more common and more severe, making it imperative that towns routinely update and test their emergency warning systems and evacuation plans.

然而，火焰还是吞噬了整个小镇。这场大火让拉海纳措手不及，这对习惯极端天气的地方和不习惯极端天气的地方都是一个警示教训。气候变暖意味着火灾和洪水等灾害将变得更加高频和严重，因此城镇必须定期更新和测试其紧急预警系统和疏散计划。

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The second question is where to house people who have lost everything. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Kahului turned its basketball gym into an emergency shelter. Volunteers used tarps to create separate bedrooms, each with an air mattress and some blankets. America’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is putting fire victims up in hotel rooms. But these are short-term solutions. “The need for housing in the mid-term and long-term is going to be one of the most challenging aspects of this recovery,” says Keith Turi, a FEMA official.

第二个问题是如何安置失去家园的民众。卡胡卢伊的耶稣基督后期圣徒教会将其篮球馆改造成紧急避难所。志愿者用防水布搭建了独立的卧室，每个卧室都有一个气垫床和一些毯子。美国联邦紧急事务管理局 (FEMA) 正在将火灾受害者安置在酒店房间里。但这些都是短期解决方案。联邦应急管理局官员基思·图里表示：“中长期住房需求将成为此次灾后重建工作最具挑战的问题之一。”

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Making things worse is Hawaii’s housing shortage. The state’s median listing price is nearly twice the nation’s. In 2019 the Maui Economic Development Board reckoned that 51% of workers in the county were employed by the tourism industry. If visitors stay away because of the fires, or hotel rooms are filled with survivors instead of vacationers, the local economy will suffer.

更糟糕的是夏威夷面临住房短缺问题。该州的中位挂牌房价几乎是全国的2倍。2019 年，毛伊岛经济发展委员会估计，该县有51％的工人从事旅游业。如果由于大火的原因游客不来了，或者酒店房间中住满了幸存者而不是度假者，当地经济将受到影响。

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For now, Lahaina’s residents are scattered across Maui, mourning the loss of their homes and their history. Many locals say they want to rebuild what they lost. Ms Fonohema chokes up as she recalls what the town’s streets were like before the blaze. “Lahaina will always be home,” she says, “but it won’t be the same.”

目前，拉海纳的居民分散在毛伊岛各地，悼念他们失去的家园和历史。许多当地人说，他们希望重建失去的一切。福诺希马女士回忆起火灾前小镇街道的情景，不禁哽咽起来。她说：“拉海纳将永远是我的家，但再也回不到从前的样子了。”