Playing with fire

玩火

Backed into a corner, Iran is lashing out

被逼上绝路的伊朗正在猛烈反击

词汇

lash out/猛击；猛烈抨击；大肆挥霍

To what end?

冤冤相报何时了？

Jun 22nd 2019

FOR A MOMENT it seemed as if America and Iran were stepping back from the brink. A month ago the two countries were close to conflict, as Iran threatened to shrug off a deal, signed with six world powers, that limited its nuclear programme in return for economic relief. America had blocked that relief and was sending warships to the region. But Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, went to Tehran on June 12th with a proposal for talks that appeared to have the approval of President Donald Trump. Mr Abe told Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that Mr Trump wanted a new deal, not regime change. “Iran has no trust in America,” said Mr Khamenei, rejecting the offer.

一时间，美国和伊朗似乎正从悬崖边后退。一个月前，两国几乎陷入冲突，伊朗威胁要对与世界六大国签署的一项限制其核计划以换取经济援助的协议置之不理。美国中止了了援助行动，并向该地区派遣军舰。但日本首相安倍晋三于6月12日前往德黑兰，提出了一项似乎得到了唐纳德·特朗普总统批准的谈判提议。安倍告诉伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)，特朗普想要的是一项新协议，而不是政权更迭。“伊朗不信任美国，”哈梅内伊拒绝了这一提议。

词汇

shrug off/摆脱；抖去

warship/战舰，战船

 

So back to the brink they went. While Mr Abe was still in Tehran, two tankers (one operated by a Japanese company) came under attack in the Strait of Hormuz, an important choke point for international shipping. America blamed Iran, which denied responsibility. Iran then declared, again, that it would soon abrogate parts of the nuclear deal by exceeding limits on its stockpile of nuclear fuel and, perhaps, enriching uranium to levels closer to those of a bomb. In response, America sent 1,000 more troops to the region. On June 20th Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps shot down an American military drone.

所以他们回到了矛盾尖端。当安倍还在德黑兰时，两艘油轮(其中一艘由日本公司运营)在霍尔木兹海峡遭到攻击。霍尔木兹海峡是国际航运的一个重要咽喉。美国指责伊朗，伊朗否认对此负责。伊朗随后再次宣布，它将很快废除核协议的部分内容，手段是对其核燃料储备超过限制，或许还会将铀浓缩到接近核弹的水平。作为回应，美国向该地区增派了1000多名士兵。6月20日，伊朗革命卫队击落了一架美国军用无人机。

词汇

Abrogate/废除；取消

Stockpile/库存；积蓄

Uranium/铀

 

Spoiling for a fight

渴望一场战斗

Iran’s leaders appear to have ditched their “strategic patience” as they wait for Mr Trump’s term to end. Iranian drones and missiles, fired by its proxies in Yemen and Iraq, have struck pipelines and airports in Saudi Arabia, an Iranian rival, and American bases in Iraq. (Last month America pulled all “non-essential” staff from Iraq.) Iran has also threatened to unleash a tide of refugees and drugs on Europe by relaxing security on its Afghan border. The Guards, who answer to Mr Khamenei—not the elected president, Hassan Rouhani—are increasingly calling the shots. “We’ve never seen Iran so aggressive,” says an unusually nervous Emirati official.

在等待特朗普任期结束之际，伊朗领导人似乎已经放弃了他们的“战略耐心”。伊朗在也门和伊拉克的代理人发射的无人机和导弹袭击了伊朗的竞争对手沙特阿拉伯的输油管道和机场，以及美国在伊拉克的基地。(上个月，美国从伊拉克撤出了所有“非必要”人员。)伊朗还威胁要解除阿富汗边境的安全措施，释放大批难民和毒品进入欧洲。听命于柯梅尼先生而非民选总统哈桑•鲁哈尼的警卫们，正越来越多地发号施令。一位异常紧张的阿联酋官员表示:“我们从未见过伊朗如此咄咄逼人。”

词汇

Ditch/摆脱，抛弃，丢弃；

Refugee/难民

Proxy/代理人

 

The show of strength by Iran smacks of desperation. Mr Trump pulled America out of the nuclear deal last year and has since tried to undermine it by threatening sanctions on any country that buys Iranian oil. This month he imposed fresh restrictions on Iranian petrochemicals. The administration is also trying to block all of Iran’s efforts to enrich uranium, even to levels allowed under the deal. Meanwhile, the Europe Union’s effort to keep Iran in the deal by creating a mechanism that allows European firms to bypass American sanctions has fizzled. Few businesses want to trade with Iran if it costs them access to America’s market.

伊朗的实力展示带有绝望的意味。去年，特朗普让美国退出了核协议，并威胁对任何购买伊朗石油的国家实施制裁，试图破坏该协议。本月，他对伊朗的石化产品实施了新的限制。奥巴马政府还试图阻止伊朗所有的铀浓缩努力，即使是达到协议允许的水平。与此同时，欧盟试图通过建立一种机制，让欧洲公司绕过美国的制裁，让伊朗留在协议中，但这一努力已经失败。如果进入美国市场要付出代价，几乎没有企业愿意与伊朗进行贸易。

词汇

Smack/滋味；迹象；

Bypass/绕过，避开；

 

The impact has been devastating. In the 2018-19 fiscal year Iran’s GDP shrunk by 4.9% compared with the year before, says the government. Industrial production has fallen almost as sharply as that of oil. Food prices have tripled and supplies of medicine are diminishing. Gloating rivals in the Gulf have readily met the shortfall left by Iran’s dwindling exports of oil.

其影响是毁灭性的。政府说，在2018-19财政年度，伊朗的GDP比前一年下降了4.9%。工业生产的下降幅度几乎与石油一样大。食品价格上涨了两倍，药品供应也在减少。幸灾乐祸的海湾竞争对手已经准备好填补伊朗石油出口减少造成的缺口。

词汇

Shortfall/差额；缺少

Dwindling/减少；变小

 

Iran wants to show that Mr Trump’s actions have costs for others, too. Officials in Tehran have repeatedly said that if Iran is not allowed to export oil, then no oil will pass through the Gulf. The attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, sent the price of the black stuff (and shipping insurance) upwards. Attacks by Iranian proxies threaten to disrupt the economies of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. “Iran’s leaders are showing that they have the potential to be crazier than America,” says Vali Nasr, an Iranian-American academic.

伊朗希望表明，特朗普的行动也会让其他人付出代价。德黑兰官员多次表示，如果不允许伊朗出口石油，那么就不会有石油通过海湾。世界五分之一的石油供应都要经过霍尔木兹海峡，而霍尔木兹海峡对商业航运的袭击，使得这种黑色物质(以及航运保险)的价格上涨。伊朗代理人的袭击威胁到沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国的经济。伊朗裔美国学者瓦利•纳斯尔(Vali Nasr)表示:“伊朗领导人正在表明，他们有可能比美国更疯狂。”

词汇

Proxy/代理人

But a growing and increasingly truculent segment of Iran’s population doubts the standoff is worth it. Most Iranians dislike Mr Trump. Nevertheless, if shaking his hand would get him to relieve the pressure, they wish their leaders would do it. “We need to negotiate to survive,” pleads a housewife who haggles for bargains in Tehran’s bazaar.

但是，越来越多、越来越好斗的伊朗人怀疑这场对峙是否值得。大多数伊朗人不喜欢特朗普。然而，如果握手能让他减轻压力，他们希望他们的领导人能这样做。“我们需要谈判来生存，”一位在德黑兰集市上讨价还价的家庭主妇恳求道。

词汇

Truculent/好斗的；野蛮的

Standoff/  和局；僵持；冷淡；平衡

bazaar/ 集市；市场

 

Delegations of Swiss, Germans, Omanis, Qataris, Iraqis and Russians have come and gone from Tehran, failing to stop the cycle of escalation. America, says Mr Khamenei, must lift its sanctions before talks can take place. He rejects Mr Trump’s demand for a permanent halt to Iran’s nuclear programme and an end to Iran’s funding of proxies in the region. Instead of the flashy summit the president craves, Mr Khamenei prefers that any meetings occur in private.

瑞士、德国、阿曼、卡塔尔、伊拉克和俄罗斯的代表团在德黑兰进进出出，未能阻止局势不断升级。哈梅内伊说，美国必须在会谈开始前解除制裁。他拒绝了特朗普提出的永久停止伊朗核计划、停止伊朗资助该地区代理人的要求。哈梅内伊更希望任何会议都在私下举行，而不是像总统所渴望的那种华丽的峰会。

词汇

Escalation/  增加；扩大

 

The Pentagon and the Guards are still talking behind the scenes. On June 11th Iran released a Lebanese citizen charged with espionage who had lived in America for much of his life. Some interpreted it as a gesture by Iran’s hardliners aimed at easing tensions and improving ties. For now it appears not to have worked.

五角大楼和警卫仍在幕后进行谈判。6月11日，伊朗释放了一名被控从事间谍活动的黎巴嫩公民。一些人认为这是伊朗强硬派为缓和紧张局势和改善关系而做出的姿态。目前看来，这似乎没有奏效。

词汇

Espionage/  间谍；间谍活动；