A question of judgment

A quality that is hard to define but important to possess

Bartleby专栏

经济学人8月刊

THE PANDEMIC has required many people to make difficult judgments. Politicians have had to decide which restrictions to impose on citizens’ behaviour and individuals were forced to assess how much personal risk to take. Managers, faced with tough calls like which parts of their operations to close, have not been spared.

have not been spared：无一幸免

Good judgment is a quality everyone would like to have. But it is remarkably difficult to define precisely, and many people are not sure whether they personally possess it. Sir Andrew Likierman of the London Business School has spent a long time talking to leaders in a wide range of fields, from business and the army to the law and medicine, in an effort to create a framework for understanding judgment.

First he had to define the word. He suggests that judgment is “the combination of personal qualities with relevant knowledge and experience to form opinions and take decisions”. And he argues that, thus defined, judgment involves a process—taking in information, deciding whom and what to trust, summarising one’s personal knowledge, checking any prior beliefs or feelings, summarising the available choices and then making the decision. At each stage, decision-makers must ask themselves questions, such as whether they have the relevant experience and expertise to make their choice, and whether the option they favour is practical.

Expertise can be useful in making judgments. But it is not the same thing. “Academics have expertise,” Sir Andrew observes. “They don’t necessarily have judgment.” People with judgment know when they are out of their depth in making a decision and typically then seek the advice of someone who has the right background and knowledge.

It is, of course, possible to follow all these steps and still make the wrong choice. But Sir Andrew argues that a sensible process improves the chance of getting it right. The temptation is to look at people’s track records when assessing when they have good judgment, but luck may have played a huge part. “While good judgment is important to success,” Sir Andrew cautions, “success is not a signal that there has been good judgment.”

temptation n. /tempˈteɪʃn/  [ CU ] the desire to do or have sth that you know is bad or wrong 引诱；诱惑 •to give way to/yield to temptation 经不住诱惑  •I couldn't resist the temptation to open the letter. 我抵制不住好奇心把信打开了。•Don't put temptation in her way by offering her a cigarette. 别递烟来引诱她。

track records：记录

The degree of judgment required tends to increase as people take on more responsibility. Those with routine tasks generally have limited scope for judgment. Line supervisors have some discretion. For a chief executive, the proportion of decisions involving judgment is high. Deciding not to take action is also a judgment with potentially serious consequences (for example, “I won’t get vaccinated” or “I won’t pay my bills”). The world is full of people whose lack of judgment brought their careers or personal life crashing down. Many made the common mistake of assuming everything was fine.

discretion n. /dɪˈskreʃn/

1.the freedom or power to decide what should be done in a particular situation 自行决定的自由；自行决定权

•I'll leave it up to you to use your discretion . 我把这件事留给你自己斟酌决定。

2.care in what you say or do, in order to keep sth secret or to avoid causing embarrassment to or difficulty for sb; the quality of being discreet 谨慎；慎重；审慎

•This is confidential, but I know that I can rely on your discretion. 这是机密，不过我知道你靠得住。

3. AT SB'S DIˈSCRETION: according to what sb decides or wishes to do 由某人斟酌决定；按照某人的意见 •There is no service charge and tipping is at your discretion. 不收服务费，给不给小费由你自行决定。

4. DIˌSCRETION IS THE ˌBETTER PART OF ˈVALOUR: you should avoid danger and not take unnecessary risks 谨慎即大勇；慎重为勇敢之本

The world is full of people whose lack of judgment brought their careers or personal life crashing down.

这句话的意思是：这个世界充满了因缺乏判断导致事业、生活一团糟的人。

Crash有碰撞、摔碎、崩溃等意思 crash down可以理解为崩溃下降、受撞击下降

Some people think that good judgment is innate. Sir Andrew accepts that some individuals are born with the ability to listen, be self-aware and BETTER understand other people: all qualities that make good judgment easier. People with good judgment tend to have a breadth of experiences and relationships that enables them to recognise parallels or analogies that others miss. The ability to be detached, both intellectually and emotionally, is also a vital component.

innate adj.   /ɪˈneɪt/  ( of a quality, feeling, etc. 品质、感情等 ) that you have when you are born 天生的；先天的；与生俱来的 • the innate ability to learn 天生的学习能力

parallel  /ˈpærəlel/ n. 平行线；平行状态；匹敌者（parallel的复数形式）；v. 使…成平行；与…相应（parallel的第三人称单数）

analogy n. /əˈnælədʒi/  

1.[ C ] ~ (between A and B)~ (with sth) a comparison of one thing with another thing that has similar features; a feature that is similar 类比；比拟；比喻

•There are no analogies with any previous legal cases. 以往的法律案件没有哪一宗可与此案类比。

2.[ U ] the process of comparing one thing with another thing that has similar features in order to explain it 类推；比拟

•learning by analogy 用类推法学习

detached adj.   /dɪˈtætʃt/  

1.( of a house 房子 ) not joined to another house on either side 单独的；独立的；不连接的

2.showing a lack of feeling 不带感情的；超然的；冷漠的

•She wanted him to stop being so cool, so detached, so cynical. 她希望他不再那么冷酷无情，那么无动于衷，那么愤世嫉俗。

3.( approving ) not influenced by other people or by your own feelings 客观的；公正的；无偏见的 •a detached observer 客观的观察者

Others may have the wrong sort of characteristics; a tendency to ignore others, stick to rules irrespective of context, rush into action without reflection and struggle to make up their minds. Many leaders make bad judgments because they unconsciously filter the information they receive or are not sufficiently critical of what they hear or read. The danger is that people ignore insights that they don’t want to hear, a tendency that can increase with age.

irrespective of  prep.   /ɪrɪˈspektɪv əv/  

without considering sth or being influenced by it 不考虑；不管；不受…影响 • Everyone is treated equally, irrespective of race. 不分种族，每个人都受到公平对待。

As artificial intelligence gets used for more and more routine tasks in the service sector, exercising judgment may be one area where humans retain an edge over machines. This is far from certain, however. What people perceive as good judgment may stem from the ability to spot certain cues in the environment. This ability may be unconscious, just as a dog can catch a Frisbee in mid-air without knowing how to calculate wind speed and air resistance.

an edge over：对···有优势

 What people perceive as good judgment may stem from the ability to spot certain cues in the environment. 这句话的意思是人们认为好的判断可能是来源于（某些人）能够发现在环境中特定线索的能力

Perceive 在这里是~ sb/sth (as sth) to understand or think of sb/sth in a particular way 将…理解为；将…视为；认为

Stem from 我们遇见过，是起源于的意思

Spot 我们经常遇见这个词 有点、斑点的意思，还有spot news（最新消息）的用法。但这里作动词表示to see or notice a person or thing, especially suddenly or when it is not easy to do so（尤其是不容易发现或者突然间看见） 看见；看出；注意到；发现 •I finally spotted my friend in the crowd. 我终于在人群中看见了我的朋友。

Cue n. 提示，暗示；线索 vt. 给…暗示  

(right) on cue：at exactly the moment you expect or that is appropriate 恰好在这时；就在这时候 •‘Where is that boy?’ As if on cue, Simon appeared in the doorway. “那男孩在哪里？”西蒙像是接到了信号一样刚好出现在门口。

take your ˈcue from sb/sth：to copy what sb else does as an example of how to behave or what to do 模仿…的样子做；学…的样

Fris·bee n.   /ˈfrɪzbi/  弗里斯比飞盘（投掷游戏用的飞碟）

mid-air：空中，悬空   air resistance：空气阻力

With enough practice, machines may be able to recognise these implicit cues and thus display the equivalent of good judgment. But then, perhaps humans can be taught, too. In the long run one of the trickiest aspects of human judgment may be knowing precisely when to let machines take decisions and when to leave it to people.

implicit cues：隐藏的线索/提示 

Trickiest 狡猾的、复杂的、需要技巧的（ tricky的最高级 ）