经济学人 | Wind power 风力发电（2023年第003期）

Wind power is breathing life into a new green economy on its coasts

风力发电为沿海地区新的绿色经济注入了活力

Fears about the fate of European industry abound. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing gas crunch have dealt it a cruel blow. basf, the world’s largest chemicals-maker, is shifting production away from its headquarters in Ludwigshafen in Germany. Nearly a quarter of the country’s revered Mittelstand firms are reported to be considering moving part of their operations abroad. And even as energy prices have fallen back, America’s protectionist and subsidy-laden Inflation Reduction Act is feeding fresh worries that industry might be lured away from the old continent.

对欧洲工业命运的担忧比比皆是。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以及随之而来的天然气危机给欧洲带来残酷的打击。世界上最大的化学品制造商巴斯夫正在将生产从德国路德维希港的总部转移出去。据报道，该国近四分之一备受尊敬的中小型企业正在考虑将部分业务转移到国外。即使能源价格已经回落，美国的贸易保护主义和充斥着补贴的《降低通胀法案》正在引发新的担忧，即工业可能会被吸引到欧洲大陆以外的地方。

One unlikely bright spot is the part of Europe with the grimmest weather. As we report this week, a new economy based on renewable energy is taking shape in and around the North Sea. Rather as hydropower fuelled Lancashire’s cotton mills and cheap coal the Ruhr valley’s steel furnaces in the early days of industrialisation, the promise of cheap, abundant wind power is attracting industry and infrastructure to Europe’s northern coasts. If this fledgling economy thrives, it could give the continent a new, greener industrial edge.

一个想不到的亮点是欧洲天气最恶劣的地区。正如我们本周报道的那样，基于可再生能源的新经济正在北海及其周边地区形成。正如在工业化初期，水力发电为兰开夏郡的棉纺厂提供了动力，廉价煤炭则为鲁尔谷的炼钢厂提供了动力一样，廉价且大量的风力发电前景正吸引工业和基础设施向欧洲北部沿海地区转移。如果这个新兴的经济蓬勃发展，它可能会给欧洲大陆带来一个新的、更环保的工业优势。

The North Sea’s strong winds and relative shallowness together make it a huge basin of potential energy. Thanks to taller and more powerful wind turbines, more efficient undersea cables and other technological advances, it is now increasingly being tapped. A group of nine countries near this body of water has plans to install 260gw of offshore wind power by 2050—nearly five times that produced worldwide today, and enough to power all of the European Union’s nearly 200m households.

北海的强风和相对较浅的海水使它成为一个巨大的势能盆地。由于更高、更强大的风力涡轮机、更高效的海底电缆和其他技术进步，它现在正被越来越多地利用。这片水域附近的9个国家计划在2050年之前安装260GW的海上风力发电，这几乎是目前全球风力发电的5倍，且足以为欧盟近2亿户家庭提供电力。

All this is breathing life into a new coastal economy. Esbjerg, a town in south-west Denmark that some consider the capital of the North Sea economy, now boasts companies that make equipment to build and maintain wind turbines. Many once supplied the offshore-oil-and-gas industry, but have shifted their attention to greener customers.

所有这些都在为一个新的沿海经济注入活力。埃斯比约是丹麦西南部的一个小镇，一些人认为它是北海经济的中心，现在该镇以生产制造和维护风力涡轮机设备的公司而自豪。许多公司曾为海上油气行业提供服务，但它们现在已将注意力转移到更环保的客户上。

Nordic countries are beginning to attract energy-hungry battery plants and data centres. On Germany’s North Sea coast, a plan is afoot to build facilities to turn easier-to-transport ammonia into hydrogen, to fuel factories in nearby industrial parks. Even parts of steelmaking could eventually move north, as hydrogen replaces coal or gas in the manufacturing process.

北欧国家开始吸引高耗能的电池厂和数据中心。在德国的北海海岸，一项计划正在进行中，该计划是建造一些设施，从而将更容易运输的氨转化为氢，为附近工业园区的工厂提供燃料。随着氢气在制造过程中取代煤炭或天然气，甚至部分炼钢业务最终也可能向北迁移。

For this economy to take off, though, Europe will need to focus its energies. A good start would be to cut red tape: getting a permit to build a new wind farm can take ten years, or even longer. Countries bordering the North Sea will need to work together to ensure that the seabed does not become overcrowded with cables and pipes and that infrastructure is looked after. The rise of the new coastal economy could be fiercely resisted in the old industrial heartlands. It will fall to governments to ease the transition.

然而，要使经济腾飞，欧洲需要集中精力。减少繁文缛节会是一个好的开始: 获得建造一个新的风力发电场的许可可能需要十年，甚至更长时间。北海沿岸国家需要共同努力，确保海底不会因电缆和管道而变得过于拥挤，并确保基础设施得到妥善管理。新沿海经济的崛起可能会遭到旧工业中心地带的强烈抵制。缓和这种过渡的责任将落在各国政府的肩上。

A favourable wind

The pay-off will be handsome. Done right, the North Sea economy could be a model for other parts of the continent, including the Iberian peninsula, with its huge solar potential. Such shifts in its economic geography will not only help Europe achieve its climate ambitions and rebalance its energy mix away from Russia and other autocracies: they could even give rise to the sort of green corporate giants that Europe badly needs.

回报将是丰厚的。如果做得好，北海经济可以成为欧洲大陆其他地区(包括拥有巨大的太阳能潜力的伊比利亚半岛)的一个典范。这种经济地理上的转变不仅有助于欧洲实现其气候野心，并重新平衡其能源结构，减少对俄罗斯和其他专制国家的依赖: 它们甚至可能催生欧洲急需的那种绿色企业巨头。