每天一篇经济学人 | India's next decade 印度的下一个...

The Indian economy is being rewired. The opportunity is immense

印度经济正在重组。机会巨大

And so are the stakes

风险也很大

May 13th 2022Over the past three years India has endured more than its share of bad news and suffering. The pandemic has killed between 2.2m and 9.7m people. Lockdowns caused the economy to shrink temporarily by a quarter and triggered the largest internal migrations since partition in 1947, as city workers fled to their villages. Religious tensions have been simmering, stoked by the anti-Muslim chauvinism of the Bharatiya Janata Party (bjp), in power since 2014 under the strongman prime minister, Narendra Modi. Now a heatwave is baking the north of the country and the global oil- and food-price shock is battering the poor.

【1】chauvinism 沙文主义

【2】simmer 即将爆发

在过去的三年里，印度忍受了太多的坏消息和痛苦。这场大流行已导致220万至970万人死亡。封锁导致经济暂时萎缩了四分之一，并引发了自1947年分裂以来规模最大的内部迁移，城市工人纷纷逃往他们的农村。由于反穆斯林沙文主义的印度人民党自2014年以来在铁人总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的领导下掌权，宗教紧张局势一触即发。现在，一股热浪袭向该国北部，而全球石油和食品价格的冲击正重创着穷人。

Yet as our Briefing explains, if you take a step back, a novel confluence of forces stands to transform India’s economy over the next decade, improving the lives of 1.4bn people and changing the balance of power in Asia. Technological leaps, the energy transition and geopolitical shifts are creating new opportunities—and new tools to fix intractable problems. The biggest threat to all this is India’s incendiary politics.

【1】confluence 汇集

【2】incendiary 煽动性的

然而，正如本刊《Briefing》栏目所解释的那样，如果你退一步看，一股新的力量汇集在一起，并将在未来10年改变印度经济，改善14亿人的生活，改变亚洲的力量平衡。技术飞跃、能源转型和地缘政治变化正在创造新的机会，新工具可以用于解决棘手问题。对这一切的最大威胁是印度煽动性的政治。

Since India opened up in 1991, its economy has prompted both euphoria and despair. One minute it is the next China: a rising superpower bursting with enterprising geniuses. The next it is a demographic time-bomb unable to generate hope for its young people; or a Wild West where Vodafone and other naive multinationals are fleeced. Over the past decade India has outgrown most other big countries, yet this has been overshadowed by a sense of disappointment. It has not engineered the manufacturing surge that enriched East Asia nor built enough big companies to marshal capital for development. Its fragmented markets and informal firms create few good jobs.

【1】marshal 引领；召集；组织安排

自1991年开放以来，印度的经济既让人欣喜，也让人绝望。前一刻，它还是下一个中国：一个充满创新精神的天才的崛起中的超级大国。下一刻，它就像一颗人口定时炸弹，无法为年轻人带来希望；或者像蛮荒的西部，欺骗了沃达丰和其他天真的跨国公司。在过去的十年里，印度的经济增长已经超过了大多数其他大国，然而这一点却被一种失望的情绪所掩盖。它既没有谋划出让东亚富裕起来的制造业热潮，也没有建立足够多的大公司来为发展筹集资金。其分散的市场和非正规企业几乎没有创造好的就业机会。

As the country emerges from the pandemic, however, a new pattern of growth is visible. It is unlike anything you have seen before. An indigenous tech effort is key. As the cost of technology has dropped, India has rolled out a national “tech stack”: a set of state-sponsored digital services that link ordinary Indians with an electronic identity, payments and tax systems, and bank accounts. The rapid adoption of these platforms is forcing a vast, inefficient, informal cash economy into the 21st century. It has turbocharged the world’s third-largest startup scene after America’s and China’s.

然而，随着该国摆脱新冠，一种新的增长模式正在显现。这和你以前见过的任何模式都不一样。本土技术是它的关键。随着技术成本的下降，印度推出了国家“技术栈”：一套由国家资助的数字服务，可以将普通印度人与电子身份、支付和税收系统以及银行账户联系起来。这些平台的迅速普及，正迫使一个庞大、低效、非正式的现金经济进入21世纪。它推动了第三大创业场景，仅次于美国和中国。

Alongside that, global trends are creating bigger business clusters. The it-services industry has doubled in size in a decade, helped by the cloud and a worldwide shortage of software workers. Where else can Western firms find half a million new engineers a year? There is a renewable-energy investment spree: India ranks third for solar installations and is pioneering green hydrogen. As firms everywhere reconfigure supply chains to lessen their reliance on X, India’s attractions as a manufacturing location have risen, helped by a $26bn subsidy scheme. Western governments are keen to forge defence and technology links. India has also found a workaround to redistribute more to ordinary folk who vote but rarely see immediate gains from economic reforms: a direct, real-time, digital welfare system that in 36 months has paid $200bn to about 950m people.

除此之外，全球趋势正在创造更大的商业集群。在云计算和全球软件工人短缺的情况下，IT服务业的规模在十年内翻了一番。西方公司每年还能在哪里找到50万名新工程师？可再生能源投资热潮正在兴起：印度在太阳能安装方面排名第三，并且在绿色氢气方面领先。随着世界各地的企业重新配置供应链，以减少对X的依赖，印度作为制造业基地，在一项260亿美元的补贴计划的帮助下，其吸引力有所上升。西方政府热衷于建立国防和技术联系。印度还找到了一个变通办法，将更多财富重新分配给那些有投票权但很少能从经济改革中即时获益的普通民众：即一个直接、实时的数字福利系统，该系统在36个月内为大约9.5亿人支付了2000亿美元。

These changes will not lead to a manufacturing boom as big as those in South Korea or China, which created enough jobs to empty the fields of farmers. They do not solve deep problems such as extreme weather or clogged courts. But they do help explain why India is forecast to be the world’s fastest-growing big economy in 2022 and why it has a chance of holding on to that title for years. Growth generates more wealth to invest in the country’s human capital, particularly hospitals and schools.

这些变化不会带来像韩国或中国那样大的制造业繁荣，因为韩国或中国创造了足够多的就业机会，让农民的田地空无一人。不过它们不能解决诸如极端天气或妨碍法庭等深层次问题。但它们确实有助于解释为什么印度预计将在2022年成为世界上增长最快的大型经济体，以及为什么它有机会在数年内保持这一头衔。经济增长可以产生更多财富，用于投资该国的人力资本，特别是医院和学校。

Who deserves the credit? Chance has played a big role: India did not create the X-American split or the cloud, but benefits from both. So has the steady accumulation of piecemeal reform over many governments. The digital-identity scheme and new national tax system were dreamed up a decade or more ago.

谁值得赞扬？机会发挥了很大作用：印度没有制造xx冲突或创造云计算平台，但其却从中受益。对许多政府来说，它们也有渐进式改革的稳步积累。数字身份认证方案和新的国家税收系统十多年前就构想出来了。

Mr Modi’s government has also got a lot right. It has backed the tech stack and direct welfare, and persevered with the painful task of shrinking the informal economy. It has found pragmatic fixes. Central-government purchases of solar power have kick-started renewables. Financial reforms have made it easier to float young firms and bankrupt bad ones. Mr Modi’s electoral prowess provides economic continuity. Even the opposition expects him to be in power well after the election in 2024.

【1】kick-start 推动

莫迪政府也做了很多正确的事情。它支持技术堆栈和直接福利，并坚持完成缩小非正规经济的痛苦任务。它已经找到了务实的解决办法。中央政府对太阳能的采购推动了可再生能源。金融改革使得年轻的公司更容易上市，而不好的公司更容易破产。莫迪先生的选举能力提供了经济的连续性。就连反对派也希望他在2024年大选后能很好地掌权。

The danger is that over the next decade this dominance hardens into autocracy. One risk is the bjp’s abhorrent hostility towards Muslims, which it uses to rally its political base. Companies tend to shrug this off, judging that Mr Modi can keep tensions under control and that capital flight will be limited. Yet violence and deteriorating human rights could lead to stigma that impairs India’s access to Western markets. The bjp’s desire for religious and linguistic conformity in a huge, diverse country could be destabilising. Were the party to impose Hindi as the national language, secessionist pressures would grow in some wealthy states that pay much of the taxes.

【1】secessionist 分离主义者；支持脱离的

危险在于，在接下来的十年里，这种主导地位会变成独裁统治。风险之一是印度人民党对穆斯林怀有敌意，它利用这种敌意来团结自己的政治基础。企业往往对此不以为意，它们认为莫迪能够控制紧张局势，资本外逃将受到限制。然而，暴力和日益恶化的人权可能会导致污名，损害印度进入西方市场的机会。在一个庞大而多元的国家，印度人民党渴望宗教和语言的一致性，这可能会造成不稳定。如果该党强行将印地语作为国家语言，那么在一些支付大部分税收的富裕邦，分离主义的压力将会增加。

The quality of decision-making could also deteriorate. Prickly and vindictive, the government has co-opted the bureaucracy to bully the press and the courts. A botched decision to abolish bank notes in 2016 showed Mr Modi’s impulsive side. A strongman lacking checks and balances can eventually endanger not just democracy, but also the economy: think of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, whose bizarre views on inflation have caused a currency crisis. And, given the bjp’s ambivalence towards foreign capital, the campaign for national renewal risks regressing into protectionism. The party loves blank cheques from Silicon Valley but is wary of foreign firms competing in India. Today’s targeted subsidies could degenerate into autarky and cronyism—the tendencies that have long held India back.

【1】Prickly 易怒的；棘手的

【2】co-opt 指定

【3】banknote 钞票

【4】checks and balances 制衡制度

决策的质量也可能恶化。脾气暴躁、报复心强的政府利用官僚机构来恐吓媒体和法庭。2016年废除纸币的拙劣决定显示了莫迪冲动的一面。一个缺乏制衡制度的强人最终不仅会危及民主，还会危及经济：想想土耳其总统雷杰普•塔伊普•埃尔多安，他对通货膨胀的怪异观点引发了一场货币危机。而且，鉴于印度人民党对外资的矛盾态度，民族复兴运动有倒退到贸易保护主义的风险。该党喜欢来自硅谷的空白支票，但对外国公司在印度的竞争持谨慎态度。今天的有针对性的补贴可能会退化为自给自足和任人唯亲，这是长期以来阻碍印度发展的趋势。

For India to grow at 7% or 8% for years to come would be momentous. It would lift huge numbers of people out of poverty. It would generate a vast new market and manufacturing base for global business, and it would change the global balance of power by creating a bigger counterweight to X in Asia. Fate, inheritance and pragmatic decisions have created a new opportunity in the next decade. It is India’s and Mr Modi’s to squander.

对印度来说，在未来几年保持7%或8%的增长率将是非常重要的。它将使大量人口摆脱贫困。它将为全球企业创造一个巨大的新市场和制造基地，并将通过在亚洲创造一个更大的制衡X的力量，改变全球力量平衡。命运、继承和务实的决定在未来十年创造了一个新的机会。这是印度的机会，也是莫迪可以挥霍的机会。