International trade： Changing places 

The pandemic will not end globalisation, but it will reshape it   

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Unhappily, the political appeal of protectionism grows during slumps. When economies lack demand, governments covet spending that leaks overseas on imports.This is what led to a devastating round of protectionism in the 1930S. Protection also rose after the financial crisis. It does not help that China’s stimulus has tried to keep production going, whereas rich-world governments have supported household incomes. Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, notes that China’s current-account surplus, which was shrinking, has exploded this year. Its exports have recovered strongly, outward flows of tourists have all but stopped and commodity prices have fallen, making imports cheaper. Were China’s trade surplus in July sustained for a year it would add up to $700bn, surely enough to worsen the trade war with America even if Joe Biden replaces Mr Trump.

covet  v. /ˈkʌvət/  渴望；贪求（尤指别人的东西）；觊觎• He had long coveted the chance to work with a famous musician. 他一直渴望有机会与著名音乐家一起工作。

current-account 活期存款账户的；往来账户的

surplus /ˈsɜːpləs/  

名词 1.过剩；剩余；过剩量；剩余额•food surpluses 过剩的食物

2.盈余；顺差 •a trade surplus of ￡400 million 4亿英镑的贸易盈余

形容词：~ (to sth)  过剩的；剩余的；多余的 •surplus cash 剩余的现金 •These items are surplus to requirements (= not needed) . 这几项不需要。

Such is the confluence of forces bearing down on global trade organic slowbalisation, trade wars, suspicion of supply chains that some draw comparisons between today and the early 20th century. Then, a peak in globalisation collapsed under the weight of the first world war, Spanish flu and then the 1930S depression.

Confluence  n. /ˈkɒnfluəns/  1.(术语 ) （河流的）汇合处，汇流处，交汇处 2.（事物的）汇合，汇聚，汇集•a confluence of social factors 多种社会因素的汇集

bear down：击败，压倒；用力产出胎儿；用力压；加倍努力；逼近

Organic  adj./ɔːˈɡænɪk/  1.(食品、耕作方式等)有机的；不使用化肥的；绿色的 •organic cheese/vegetables/wine, etc. 有机奶酪、蔬菜、酒等 2. 有机物的；生物的 •organic compounds 有机化合物 3.(术语) 器官的；器质性的；官能的 •organic disease 器官疾病4.有机的；统一的；关联的 •the view of society as an organic whole 视社会为一有机体的观点 5.逐渐的；演进的；自然的•the organic growth of foreign markets 国外市场的逐步发展

The comparison is too pessimistic. Trade has not done as badly as feared. In April the WTO forecast that goods trade would fall by 13-32% this year; today it seems more likely to be just 10%. The IMF says the decline in trade will be commensurate with the slump in demand from the recession. That is in contrast to the aftermath of the financial crisis, when trade fell by more than its usual relationship with GDP suggested. It also shows that supply chains have not been wholly wrecked. They were crucial for the response to PPE shortages, argues Sebastien Miroudot of the OECD club of mostly rich countries. South Korea, which has been exporting millions of test kits to America and Europe, was uniquely placed to ramp up production using existing supply chains and relationships.

Commensurate  adj./kəˈmenʃərət/  ~ (with sth)（在大小、重要性、质量等方面）相称的，相当的 • Salary will be commensurate with experience. 薪金将会与资历相称。

aftermath  n. /ˈɑːftəmæθ/  /‑mɑːθ/  （战争、事故、不快事情的）后果，创伤 • A lot of rebuilding took place in the aftermath of the war. 战后进行了大量的重建工作。

Wrecked  adj./rekt/ 1.失事的；遇难的；毁坏的 •a wrecked ship/marriage 遇难的船只；破裂的婚姻 2.喝得烂醉

 OECD：Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development  经合组织，经济合作与发展组织（工业化国家鼓励贸易和经济发展的组织）

ramp up增加; 使增加

The logic of turning inward in response to the pandemic is shaky. A recent working paper by Barthelemy Bonadio of the University of Michigan and three co-authors studies 64 countries and finds that one-quarter of the drop in GDP this year was transmitted along supply chains, but that reshoring production would not have reduced the damage.Mr Miroudot distinguishes a supply chain's robustness (the ability to keep working through a crisis), from its resilience (the ability to bounce back from one). The history of supply chains is that they are not robust but they are resilient, because companies are quick to find workarounds. Their robustness could be improved, but not by repatriating production, since disaster can strike at home as well.Had New York been the centre of mask production when covid-19 struck, the result would have been a "real big mess", argues Shannon O'Neil of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Robustness /rəʊˈbʌstnɪs/[自] 鲁棒性；[计] 稳健性；健壮性

bounce ˈback 恢复健康（或信心等）；重整旗鼓

Workaround  /ˈwɜːkəraʊnd/ (计) 应变方法；变通方法

repatriate  v. /ˌriːˈpætrieɪt/  1.遣送回国；遣返 •The refugees were forcibly repatriated. 难民被强制遣送回国。 2.(商) 寄（钱）回国；将（利润）调回本国

译文

Unhappily, the political appeal of protectionism grows during slumps. When economies lack demand, governments covet spending that leaks overseas on imports.This is what led to a devastating round of protectionism in the 1930S. Protection also rose after the financial crisis. It does not help that China’s stimulus has tried to keep production going, whereas rich-world governments have supported household incomes. Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, notes that China’s current-account surplus, which was shrinking, has exploded this year. Its exports have recovered strongly, outward flows of tourists have all but stopped and commodity prices have fallen, making imports cheaper. Were China’s trade surplus in July sustained for a year it would add up to $700bn, surely enough to worsen the trade war with America even if Joe Biden replaces Mr Trump.

不幸地是，贸易保护主义的政治诉求在经济衰退期增长。当经济需求不足，政府垂涎进口漏出的每一笔支出。这种想法导致了19世纪30年代贸易保护主义毁灭性的浪潮。保护主义也在金融危机后滋生。中国出台刺激政策刺激生产；富裕国家正在苦苦支撑家庭收入，这加剧贸易保护主义抬头。智囊机构对外关系委员会的Brad Setser提到中国对外的往来账户剩余本已经萎缩，而今年却极速增长。中国出口恢复迅速，海外旅游行业全部停止，大宗商品价格下跌，让进口变得更加容易。如果中国的贸易顺差持续一年，应该会达到7000亿美元，则肯定会在中美贸易战上雪上加霜。即使拜登上台也不能缓解。

Such is the confluence of forces bearing down on global trade organic slowbalisation, trade wars, suspicion of supply chains that some draw comparisons between today and the early 20th century. Then, a peak in globalisation collapsed under the weight of the first world war, Spanish flu and then the 1930S depression.

这些力量汇聚在一起迫使全球贸易自然放缓。贸易战、对供应链的不信任让有心人将现在与20世纪初进行比较。那时候全球化在第一次世界大战、西班牙流感的重压下崩塌，然后迎来了20世纪30年代的大萧条。

The comparison is too pessimistic. Trade has not done as badly as feared. In April the WTO forecast that goods trade would fall by 13-32% this year; today it seems more likely to be just 10%. The IMF says the decline in trade will be commensurate with the slump in demand from the recession. That is in contrast to the aftermath of the financial crisis, when trade fell by more than its usual relationship with GDP suggested. It also shows that supply chains have not been wholly wrecked. They were crucial for the response to PPE shortages, argues Sebastien Miroudot of the OECD club of mostly rich countries. South Korea, which has been exporting millions of test kits to America and Europe, was uniquely placed to ramp up production using existing supply chains and relationships.

当然这样的比较悲观。贸易并没有像担忧的那样差。4月，WTO预测今年货物贸易会下降13%-32%，而现在看起来顶多10%。国际货币基金组织表示贸易削减量与经济衰退期间的需求量下滑相当。这与08年金融危机的后果不太一样，那时候贸易下降幅度超过它与GDP通常关系所展示的水平。全球富国组成的经合组织成员Sebastien Miroudot辩道，这表明供应链并没有完全被破坏。这对于个人防护用品短缺进行反应是非常关键的。韩国已经向欧美出口了数以百万计的测试剂。它利用得天独厚的地理条件和现有供应链及与欧美的关系使得产能快速增加。

The logic of turning inward in response to the pandemic is shaky. A recent working paper by Barthelemy Bonadio of the University of Michigan and three co-authors studies 64 countries and finds that one-quarter of the drop in GDP this year was transmitted along supply chains, but that reshoring production would not have reduced the damage.Mr Miroudot distinguishes a supply chain's robustness (the ability to keep working through a crisis), from its resilience (the ability to bounce back from one). The history of supply chains is that they are not robust but they are resilient, because companies are quick to find workarounds. Their robustness could be improved, but not by repatriating production, since disaster can strike at home as well.Had New York been the centre of mask production when covid-19 struck, the result would have been a "real big mess", argues Shannon O'Neil of the Council on Foreign Relations.

因为疫情而转向国内发展的逻辑并不牢固。最近由密歇根大学Barthelemy Bonadio 和其他三位联合作者通过研究64个国家发现今年GDP下降的4四分之一是通过供应链传递的，但制造业回流并不能减少损失。Miroudot 先生通过供应链的弹性（从损害中恢复的能力）分辨供应链鲁棒性（抗风险能力）。供应链的历史表明它不具有鲁棒性但是它有弹性，因为企业能快速找到变通方法。供应链鲁棒性可以被提高但并不是通过制造业回流达到该目的，因为灾害也会在家乡发生。对外关系委员会 Shannon O'Neil表示如果疫情期间纽约是口罩生产中心，那会造成巨大的混乱。

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经济学人11月刊