「释义」

战略展望一种结构和文化分析方法，可以帮助企业在早期发现不可持续的缺陷，解释缺陷带来的后果，并且制定有效的长期生存和兴旺的模式。

「应用场景」

战略展望就是一种可行的办法，笔者研究其历史、理论及实践已有数年。战略展望的目的不是预测未来，而是增强我们感受、描绘和适应今后几年各种事件的能力，以这种创造性的方式想象多种多样的未来。战略展望不是让我们确定自己未来该思考些什么，而是帮助我们学习如何思考未来。

Strategic foresight—the history, theory, and practice of which I have spent years researching—offers a way forward. Its aim is not to predict the future but rather to make it possible to imagine multiple futures in creative ways that heighten our ability to sense, shape, and adapt to what happens in the years ahead. Strategic foresight doesn’t help us figure out what to think about the future. It helps us figure out how to think about it.

诚然，越来越多的研究表明，即使是在地缘政治学等混乱的领域，也有可能做出更加准确的预测。我们应当尽可能地将这类预测技术运用到极致。不过，等到预测工具到达了极限，我们就需要转向战略展望。无法消解的未来不确定性，正是战略展望的起点。在高度不确定的情况下，战略展望可以帮助领导者做出更好的决定。

To be sure, a growing body of research has demonstrated that it is possible to make more-accurate predictions, even in chaotic fields like geopolitics. We should use those techniques to the extent we can. But when predictive tools reach their limits, we need to turn to strategic foresight, which takes the irreducible uncertainty of the future as a starting point. In that distinctive context, it helps leaders make better decisions.

《从未来学习》

彼得·斯科布里克

2020年7月刊

“Learning from the Future”

by J. Peter Scoblic

编辑：马冰仑