Free exchange--The mop that never stops

How China revived and recast its economy at the same time

经济学人10月刊

mop  /mɒp/  名词 1.拖把；墩布 •a mop and bucket 拖把和水桶 2. 洗碗刷 3. 乱蓬蓬的头发 •a mop of curly red hair 乱蓬蓬的红色鬈发；动词 4用拖把擦干净 •She wiped all the surfaces and mopped the floor. 她把所有的陈设都擦干净，还拖了地板。5.~ sth (from sth) 用布擦掉（表面）的液体 •He took out a handkerchief to mop his brow (= to remove the sweat) . 他拿出手绢来擦额头上的汗水。

动词短语

1.ˌmop sth/sb←→ˈup：吸干净；吸去…的水分 •Do you want some bread to mop up that sauce? 要不要用块面包把这酱料蘸蘸吃了？

2.ˌmop sb/sth←→ˈup (1)  完成，结束（最后部分）；收尾 •There are a few things that need mopping up before I can leave. 我还有几件事儿，了结了才能走。(2)消灭（残敌）

recast  v./ˌriːˈkɑːst/  1.改动；重组；改写 •She recast her lecture as a radio talk. 她把讲稿修改成了一篇广播讲话。 2.~ sb (as sth) 重新安排（演员阵容）；改变（演员角色）

FORECASTS CAN haunt their authors, especially when they appear in headlines or book titles. Most pundits play it safe, giving “a number or a date, but not both”, as an old sage once advised. Thomas Orlik of Bloomberg is more courageous. His latest book, “China: The Bubble That Never Pops”, provides an unusually even-handed account of China’s economic resilience that is both closely observed and analytically interesting. But its title offers up quite a hostage to fortune. “Never”, after all, spans a lot of dates.

haunt  /hɔːnt/ vt. 常出没于…；萦绕于…；经常去…vi. 出没；作祟 n. 栖息地；常去的地方

Pundit n. /ˈpʌndɪt/  行家；权威；专家；=pandit 梵学家；博学家

Courageous /kəˈreɪdʒəs/ 有胆量的，勇敢的    even-handed：公平的，无偏见的

hostage  n. /ˈhɒstɪdʒ/  人质、抵押品 • Three children were taken hostage during the bank robbery. 在银行抢劫案中有三名儿童被扣为人质。

A ˌHOSTAGE TO ˈFORTUNE 可能招惹麻烦（或担忧）的东西（或许诺）；造成后患的事物

Span  n. 跨度，跨距；范围 vt. 跨越；持续；以手指测量

Fortunately for Mr Orlik, his definition of China’s bubble leaves him some wiggle room. He is not referring to any particular market or mania (such as the frenzy for tech stocks this year, bike-sharing in 2017 or caterpillar fungus in 2012). The title refers instead to China’s crisis-proof economic momentum, which has survived countless predictions of collapse. Even now, this unpoppable force is bouncing back with impressive speed from the covid-19 pandemic (which arrived after this book was written). Will Mr Orlik ever wish he’d never said never?

wiggle room  进行解释或表达意见所留的)余地、回旋空间  

wiggle /ˈwɪɡl/  v.使摆动，使扭动 n. 摆动，扭动

mania n.   /ˈmeɪniə/  

1.~ (for sth/for doing sth) （通常指许多人共有的）强烈的欲望，狂热，极大的热情 •He had a mania for fast cars. 他是个飞车狂。 2.躁狂症

Caterpillar  n. /ˈkætəpɪlə(r)/ 毛虫，蠋（蝴蝶或蛾的幼虫）

Fungus  n. /ˈfʌŋɡəs/  ( pl. fungi /ˈfʌŋɡiː/  /‑ɡaɪ/  /ˈfʌndʒaɪ/  ) 1.. 真菌（如蘑菇和霉）2. 霉；霉菌 •fungus infections 霉菌感染  caterpillar fungus 冬虫夏草  

momentum n.   /məˈmentəm/  1. 推进力；动力；势头 •The fight for his release gathers momentum each day. 争取使他获释的斗争声势日益加强。2.冲力 •The vehicle gained momentum as the road dipped. 那辆车顺着坡越跑冲力越大。3. 动量

Unpoppable这个词国内网站未查到，它是un否定前缀+poppable。poppabel根据merriam-webster的解释是capable of being popped。而pop的含义就非常多，联系上下文经济学家预测中国经济如泡沫，因此这里的pop指的是to cause to explode or burst open，突然爆炸的意思。而unpoppable force则指的是经济泡沫一直不破的能力。

bouncing  adj. /ˈbaʊnsɪŋ/  ~ (with sth) 健壮的；茁壮的

Although Mr Orlik does not draw heavily on economic theory to justify his confidence, he can take some comfort from it. A bubble that never pops sounds like the sort of thing that the laws of economics should rule out, like a free lunch or an unpocketed dollar bill. In fact, theorists have long entertained the possibility of sustainable bubbles, inspired by the work of two Nobel prizewinners, Paul Samuelson in 1958 and Jean Tirole in 1985.

dollar bill是美钞的意思，unpocketed dollar bill：不进入口袋的美钞（这个不清楚是描绘什么现象，可以肯定的是不符合经济学一般规律，属于例外）

They showed that bubbles can persist when an economy’s growth rate consistently exceeds its interest rate. In these circumstances, a bubble can remain both attractive and affordable, enticing the buyers it needs to sustain itself without dwarfing the economy.

Entice  v. /ɪnˈtaɪs/  [ adv./prep. ] ~ sb (into doing sth) 诱使；引诱• The bargain prices are expected to entice customers away from other stores. 低廉的价格意在把顾客从其他商店吸引过来。 

Dwarf  /dwɔːf/ n. 侏儒，矮子；（传说或神话里的）小矮人；矮星 adj. 矮小的；矮生的 v. （使）变矮；使显得矮小

译文

FORECASTS CAN haunt their authors, especially when they appear in headlines or book titles. Most pundits play it safe, giving “a number or a date, but not both”, as an old sage once advised. Thomas Orlik of Bloomberg is more courageous. His latest book, “China: The Bubble That Never Pops”, provides an unusually even-handed account of China’s economic resilience that is both closely observed and analytically interesting. But its title offers up quite a hostage to fortune. “Never”, after all, spans a lot of dates.

预测会反噬它的作者，尤其是将预测作为标题或者书名。大多数的权威有特殊预测技巧，正如圣人所建议“给一个数据或者日期，但不要全给”。彭博社的Thomas·Orlik有胆量，最新出版的书叫做“中国：永不破灭的气泡”，不常见的以近距离、全面无偏见的态度描绘了中国经济韧性，并且分析有趣。但它的标题将自己赌给老天，毕竟，“永不”的期限太长了。

Fortunately for Mr Orlik, his definition of China’s bubble leaves him some wiggle room. He is not referring to any particular market or mania (such as the frenzy for tech stocks this year, bike-sharing in 2017 or caterpillar fungus in 2012). The title refers instead to China’s crisis-proof economic momentum, which has survived countless predictions of collapse. Even now, this unpoppable force is bouncing back with impressive speed from the covid-19 pandemic (which arrived after this book was written). Will Mr Orlik ever wish he’d never said never?

比较幸运的是，Orlik先生对中国气泡的定义留有余地。他没有指特殊的市场或者狂热，比如今年的科技股狂热、2017的共享单车热及2012年的冬虫夏草。这个标题指的是中国突破经济危机的势头，总能使“中国崩溃论”的预测破灭。甚至现在这种防破能力也让中国快速的从新冠危机中复苏（新冠疫情在本书完成后发生）。不知道Orlik在疫情中有没有过后悔的念头。

Although Mr Orlik does not draw heavily on economic theory to justify his confidence, he can take some comfort from it. A bubble that never pops sounds like the sort of thing that the laws of economics should rule out, like a free lunch or an unpocketed dollar bill. In fact, theorists have long entertained the possibility of sustainable bubbles, inspired by the work of two Nobel prizewinners, Paul Samuelson in 1958 and Jean Tirole in 1985.

尽管Orlik先生没有着重描述经济学理论知识去佐证自己判断的合理性，但他可以得到些许安慰。永不破灭的泡沫就像经济规律中的例外，比如免费的午餐，未进入口袋的美钞。其实受两位诺贝尔经济学家1958Paul Samuelson，1985年Jean Tirole的启发，理论学家们一直孜孜不倦的探求可持续泡沫的可能性。

They showed that bubbles can persist when an economy’s growth rate consistently exceeds its interest rate. In these circumstances, a bubble can remain both attractive and affordable, enticing the buyers it needs to sustain itself without dwarfing the economy.

他们认为当经济增长率持续高于利率时，经济泡沫就可以持续不破。在这种情况下的泡沫既吸引人又不会破，吸引着它所需要的买家源源不断进入而不损害自身经济。