《经济学人》双语：地球迎来最热年份，将突破1.5℃的气候目标？

原文标题：
Climate change
Mercury rising
The world is likely to breach its 1.5°C climate target before 2028
气候变化
温度在升高
地球很可能在2028年前突破1.5℃的气候目标

The coming years will be the hottest ever
未来几年将是有史以来最热的时期

[Paragraph 1]

IN 2015, in Paris, the nations of the world committed themselves to trying their best to prevent the planet warming by more than 1.5°C from its pre-industrial state.

2015年，在巴黎，世界各国承诺尽最大努力防止地球比工业化前的气温高 1.5°C。

Even at the time, the goal looked ambitious. In recent years, it has come to seem almost impossible.
即使在当时，这个目标看起来很宏大。近年来，它似乎是不可能完成的目标。

[Paragraph 2]
On May 17th the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), an arm of the United Nations, added to the gloom.
5月17日，联合国部门“世界气象组织”更增添了疑虑。

It said there was a 66% chance that the world would exceed the 1.5°C threshold in at least one of the next five years.
它说在未来五年中的某一年，全球温度超过 1.5°C 阈值的可能性为 66%。

That is a big jump from its estimates of even a year ago, when the WMO assessed the likelihood at 48%.
这比一年前的估计有了很大的飞跃，当时世界气象组织评估的可能性为48%。

Even if the 1.5°C target is not breached, the WMO thinks it is virtually certain that one of the coming five years will be the hottest in human history.
即使没有突破1.5°C的目标，世界气象组织认为几乎可以肯定的是，未来五年中的某一年将是人类历史上最热的年份。

(That record is now held by 2016, which was 1.28°C warmer than the pre-industrial average.)
(目前最高记录是发生在2016年，比工业化前的平均温度高1.28℃）。

[Paragraph 3]
Optimists point out even if the 1.5°C threshold is breached in the coming half-decade, temperatures will likely fall back again, at least for a while.
乐观主义者指出，即使在未来五年内突破 1.5°C 的阈值，温度也可能会再次回落，至少会回落一段时间。

The Paris agreement would not, technically be breached. (That would require exceeding 1.5°C for several years.)
从技术上讲，不会违反巴黎协定。(这需要连续几年超过1.5°C。)

Over the next few years the growing level of human-driven warming will be amplified further by natural, but transient, changes.
在接下来的几年里，受人类活动推动的全球变暖水平将会被自然因素进一步放大，虽然这种影响是暂时性的。

[Paragraph 4]
The biggest of those variations is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle of warming and cooling in the waters of the eastern Pacific ocean that has widespread effects on the climate.
其中最大的变量是厄尔尼诺南方涛动，这是一个在东太平洋水域升温和降温的自然周期，对气候有很大的影响。

The world has just seen three consecutive “La Niña” years, the name given to the cooler phase of the cycle, helping hold global temperatures down.
地球刚刚经历了连续三年的 "拉尼娜 "年，这个名字是指该周期的低温阶段，有助于降低全球气温。

It now seems almost certain that a warmer “El Niño” phase will begin sometime later this year, setting up 2024 to be a scorcher. (One reason for the 2016 record is that the year coincided with an especially strong El Niño.)
现在似乎几乎可以肯定的是， "厄尔尼诺 "升温阶段将在今年晚些时候开始，使 2024 年成为炎热的一年。(2016 年创下高温纪录的原因是这一年恰逢特别强烈的厄尔尼诺现象。）

[Paragraph 5]
But the ENSO is not the only factor. An additional temporary nudge could come from the eruption last year of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano, near Tonga.
但厄尔尼诺南方涛动不是唯一的因素。去年汤加火山爆发可能会成为额外的临时推动因素。

It was one of the biggest eruptions since that of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in the 1990s, and injected an estimated 146m tonnes of water vapour into the stratosphere.
这是自1990年代菲律宾皮纳图博火山以来最大的一次火山喷发，估计向平流层注入了1.46亿吨水蒸气。

Water vapour, like carbon dioxide, is a greenhouse gas. Unlike carbon dioxide, it will gradually fall out of the stratosphere over the next few years.
水蒸气和二氧化碳一样，都是温室气体。与二氧化碳不同的是，它将在未来几年内逐渐从平流层里释放出来。

But Stuart Jenkins, a climatologist at Oxford University, reckons that while it persists it could increase the odds of passing 1.5°C by a few percentage points.
但是牛津大学的气候学家斯图尔特.詹金斯估计，当水蒸气持续释放时，它可能会使超过1.5℃的几率增加几个百分点。

[Paragraph 6]
Some tentatively encouraging signs gleam amid the gloom.
忧虑中也闪耀着一些暂且令人鼓舞的消息。

Global emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels seem to have gone sideways for several years, leading some researchers to speak cautiously of a possible peak.
多年来，化石燃料产生的温室气体全球排放量似乎不可预测，这导致一些研究人员对可能出现的峰值持谨慎态度。

Rystad Energy, a Norwegian think-tank, predicted earlier this year that global emissions of carbon dioxide from industry could peak in 2025 and then begin a slow decline.
挪威智囊团Rystad Energy今年早些时候预测，全球工业的二氧化碳排放量可能在2025年达到峰值，然后开始缓慢下降。

[Paragraph 7]
Even so, the world’s actions still fall far short of its promises.
即便如此，全球的行动仍然远远达不到它所作出的承诺。

Even the upper end of the goals agreed in Paris—of limiting warming to “well below 2°C”—will be achievable only with drastic action.
即使是在巴黎商定的目标的上限——限制全球气温上升幅度“远低于 2°C”——也只有采取严厉的行动才能实现。

For Europe and America to meet their commitments, for instance, would require them to switch off all their fossil-fired power plants within the next three decades.
例如，欧洲和美国要实现他们的承诺，就需要他们在未来30年内关闭所有的化石燃料发电厂。

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And simply stopping emissions will not be enough. Somewhere between 3.5bn and 5.4bn tonnes of carbon dioxide will need to be sucked out of the atmosphere every year, rising to 4.7bn to 9.8bn tonnes within 30 years. All that is a big ask, to put it mildly.
而仅仅停止排放是不够的。每年需要从大气中吸出35亿至54亿吨二氧化碳，在30年内增加到47亿至98亿吨。委婉地说，这一切都是巨大的挑战。

But the optimist’s take might be that the psychological impact of breaching the 1.5°C goal, even if only temporarily, could help focus minds.
但乐观主义者的看法可能是，突破1.5℃的目标所带来的心理影响，尽管只是暂时的，但足以引起人们的注意。

（恭喜读完，本篇英语词汇量672左右）
原文出自：2023年5月20日《The Economist》Science & technology版块

精读笔记来源于：自由英语之路

本文翻译整理: Irene本文编辑校对: Irene
仅供个人英语学习交流使用。

【补充资料】（来自于网络）
巴黎协定是联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）下达成的一项全球性气候协议，于2015年12月通过并在2016年11月正式生效。协议旨在通过降低温室气体排放，限制全球气温上升幅度不超过2摄氏度，尽量争取控制在1.5摄氏度以内。为实现这一目标，各缔约方需制定具有采取行动、逐步加强和透明度等原则的自愿贡献，并每五年更新一次。巴黎协定被认为是一个历史性的里程碑，得到了世界各国政府和社会各界的广泛支持和参与。截至2023年5月，共有197个国家和地区签署了该协议，其中189个已经正式批准。

厄尔尼诺南方涛动是指发生在太平洋东部的一种气候现象，通常每隔几年就会出现一次。在这种现象中，太平洋赤道东部海域出现异常温暖的海水，引发全球气候变化。此时赤道西部的降雨增加，而东部地区则干旱。

拉尼娜是一种发生在太平洋东部的气候现象，通常是厄尔尼诺南方涛动现象的反面。在拉尼娜时期，太平洋赤道东部海域表面温度比平均值略低，同时赤道西部地区的海水温度比平均值更高。拉尼娜现象通常会引起降雨量减少、干旱和风暴等极端天气，对全球农业、渔业和水资源管理都带来重要影响。与厄尔尼诺南方涛动相似，拉尼娜现象也有周期性，每隔2-7年左右出现一次，并且常常持续6-18个月不等。

【重点句子】（3个）
Over the next few years the growing level of human-driven warming will be amplified further by natural, but transient, changes.
在接下来的几年里，受人类活动推动的全球变暖水平将会被自然因素进一步放大，虽然这种影响是暂时性的。

Some tentatively encouraging signs gleam amid the gloom.
忧虑中也闪耀着一些暂且令人鼓舞的消息。

But the optimist’s take might be that the psychological impact of breaching the 1.5°C goal, even if only temporarily, could help focus minds.
但乐观主义者的看法可能是，突破1.5℃的目标所带来的心理影响，尽管只是暂时的，但足以引起人们的注意。