From plague to penury

从瘟疫到贫穷

The pandemic is plunging millions back into extreme poverty

这一流行病（新冠）使数百万人重新陷入极端贫困

It could take years for them to escape again

他们可能需要数年时间才能再次脱贫

Sep 26th 2020 | CÁRDENAS, KAMPALA AND MUMBAI

FOR MORE than a decade Suresh Aryal has flogged momos, steamed dumplings from Nepal, on the streets of New Delhi. On a good day the 32-year-old could take home as much as 6,000 rupees ($82). Then in March, as covid-19 spread, India shut down. Mr Aryal waited for things to improve for three months. When they did not, he returned to his home village in Nepal.

十多年来，Suresh Aryal一直在新德里街头兜售来自尼泊尔的蒸饺”momo”。运气好的话，32岁的他一天能拿到6000卢比(82美元)。今年3月，随着新冠疫情的传播，印度进行了封锁。Aryal先生等了三个月情况才有所好转。当印度还未取消封锁期间，他回到了他在尼泊尔的家乡。

词汇

Flog/【英式英语|非正式用法】卖///flog sth to sb /flog sth off

India has since eased its lockdown. But Mr Aryal has no plans to return to the Indian capital. While people are still strapped for cash and reluctant to eat on crowded kerbsides, there is little point. Years spent surviving in a big city and sending money home to his family have left him with no savings. He has been getting by on loans from neighbours, but such generosity has its limits. Jobs are scarce in the village and Mr Aryal does not qualify for government support. “I don’t have a plan,” he says. “I’m going to have to hustle to feed my family.”

印度已经放松了封锁。但Aryal先生没有返回印度首都的计划。尽管人们仍然手头拮据，但也不愿意在拥挤的街道上吃饭（个人理解为拥挤在路边等着临时工作），（因为这）不能带来多少改变。他在大城市生活了几年，还往家里寄钱，结果没有积蓄。他一直靠邻居的贷款度日，但这种慷慨也有其局限性。村里的工作机会很少，而且Aryal先生没有资格得到政府的支持。“我没有计划，”他说。“但我需要努力工作才能养活我的家人。”

词汇

strap for cash /资金不足

Hustle/努力干；奋力前行

Mr Aryal is not alone. According to estimates in June by the World Bank, national lockdowns and the ensuing economic catastrophe will push between 71m and 100m people into extreme poverty this year, defined as subsisting on less than $1.90 a day (at 2011 prices). Its predictions have worsened since the pandemic began, and suggest that three years of progress will be wiped out. Some countries could be even worse hit, depending on the scale of the recession (see chart). From 1990 until last year the number of extremely poor people fell from 2bn, or 36% of the world’s population, to 630m, or just 8%. Most of those left in poverty were in sub-Saharan Africa (see map) and in countries riven by conflict. By contrast, almost half the newly destitute will be in South Asia.

Aryal先生的情况并不止他一个人。根据世界银行(World Bank) 6月份的估计，国家封锁和随之而来的经济灾难将使7100万至1亿人在今年陷入极端贫困，极端贫困的定义是每天生活费低于1.9美元(以2011年的价格计算)。自大流行开始以来，对于该数值的预测进一步恶化，并预感近三年取得的成果将要被抹去。一些国家可能会受到更严重的打击，这取决于衰退的规模(见图表)。从1990年到去年，极端贫困人口的数量从20亿(占世界人口的36%)下降到6.3亿(仅占8%)。大多数贫困人口生活在撒哈拉以南非洲地区(见地图)，以及因冲突而四分五裂的国家。相比之下，几乎一半的新贫困人口将在南亚。

词汇

Ensuing/因而发生的，随后的

The United Nations is even gloomier. It defines people as poor if they do not have access to things like clean water, electricity, sufficient food and schools for their children. Working with researchers from Oxford University, it reckons the pandemic could cast 490m in 70 countries into poverty, reversing almost a decade of gains.

联合国甚至更加悲观。如果一个人不能获得清洁的水、电、充足的食物和供子女上学的学校，那么他就是穷人。该组织与牛津大学的研究人员合作，估计新冠大流行将使70个国家的4.9亿人陷入贫困，扭转近10年的增长。

The economic crisis caused by the pandemic has exacerbated inequalities more sharply than previous recessions. The pandemic has left them with few fallback options. Those who lost formal jobs were unable to make a quick buck in the informal sector driving rickshaws, shining shoes or sorting rubbish, because the world had shut up shop. Lockdowns have frozen entire economies—black, white and grey. Since the disease has struck everywhere, relatives in richer countries may not be able to send extra cash home; remittances may drop by about a fifth this year, the biggest decline in recent history, according to the latest figures from the World Bank.

新冠疫情造成的经济危机比以往的衰退更严重地加剧了不平等。新冠疫情使他们没有多少后备选择。那些失去了正式工作的人无法在非正式的部门里开人力车、擦鞋或分类垃圾来快速赚钱，因为这个世界关闭了商店。封锁冻结了整个经济——无论是黑色经济还是白色、灰色。由于这种疾病到处肆虐，富裕国家的亲戚们可能无法寄额外的钱回家;世界银行(World Bank)的最新数据显示，今年汇款额可能下降约五分之一，为近年来最大降幅。

词汇

Exacerbate/ 使加剧；使恶化

Fallback/应急计划；退路

Rickshaw/人力车；黄包车

Remittance/ 汇款；侨汇

Worst affected have been the millions who escaped poverty by moving to bustling cities with running water, electricity and schools. Many have lost work and fled to more rural areas, where there are few jobs but at least living costs are cheaper. Official data in India suggest 10m people have relocated, but others reckon the total is five times more. In Kampala, Uganda’s capital, SafeBoda, a motorbike ride-hailing app, reckons that 40% of its drivers went back to the countryside under the lockdown. Returning to big cities holds little appeal until it is clear that economic activity is picking up and that further lockdowns are unlikely. With places such as Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital, announcing new restrictions in response to rising infections, it is not clear when that will be.

受影响最严重的是数百万逃离贫困的人，他们搬到了有自来水、电和学校的繁华城市。许多人失去了工作，逃到更多的农村地区，那里的工作机会很少，但至少生活成本更低。印度官方数据显示，有1000万人已经搬迁，但其他人估计总数是这一数字的5倍多。在乌干达的首都坎帕拉，一个叫车软件SafeBoda估计，有40%的司机在封锁后回到了乡下。在经济活动明显好转、不太可能出现进一步封锁之前，重返大城市几乎没有什么吸引力。由于印度尼西亚首都雅加达等地宣布了新的限制措施，以应对不断上升的感染，目前还不清楚何时会执行。

词汇

ride-hailing/打车服务

The economic crisis is already turning into a food crisis. Peter Lutalo ran a thriving bar in Kiboga, in central Uganda. His family used to eat meat at the weekend and drink milky tea every day. But since the government ordered bars to close they can afford meat only once in three weeks and take their tea black. He is far from alone. The number of people unable to afford enough to eat could double as a result of the pandemic, says the UN’s World Food Programme. That would mean an additional 130m people this year suffering from the sort of debilitating hunger that harms adult health in the long term and can stunt children’s development.

经济危机已经变成了粮食危机。Peter Lutalo在乌干达中部的基博加经营一家生意兴隆的酒吧。他的家人过去常常在周末吃肉，每天喝奶茶。但由于政府要求关闭酒吧，他们只能在三周内吃一次肉，并改为喝红茶。他不是唯一这样做的人。联合国世界粮食计划署(World Food Programme)表示，无法负担足够食物的人数可能会因疫情而增加一倍。这意味着今年将有另外1.3亿人遭受那种会使人虚弱的饥饿，这种饥饿会长期损害成年人的健康，并可能阻碍儿童的发育。

词汇

Thriving/欣欣向荣的，兴旺发达的

debilitating /使衰弱的

stunt /阻碍…的正常生长或发展

Nor have international organisations plugged the gap. Anna Obba is a teacher in the Bidibidi refugee camp in Uganda. When schools shut down, her income disappeared and her children’s education was disrupted. The World Food Programme cut food rations for refugees by 30% in April, citing a financial crunch. Since then the family has been living on one meal a day.

国际组织也没有填补这一缺口。Anna Obba是乌干达Bidibidi难民营的一名教师。当学校停课时，她的收入消失了，孩子的教育也中断了。四月份，世界粮食计划署以财政危机为由，将难民的粮食配给削减了30%。从那时起，这家人就每天只吃一顿饭。

词汇

Refugee/难民

The disruption to education will have awful long-term consequences. Children whose families have fled cities will probably get a worse education in rural areas, if they get one at all. A survey by the UN’s World Health Organisation found that in August schools were fully open in only six of 39 African countries; only 12 more expect classrooms to reopen this month. Kenya has closed schools until 2021. As every year of education is reckoned to increase annual earnings by roughly 10%, the consequences for poor children are alarming.

教育的中断将产生可怕的长期后果。如果他们有学校可以上的话，那些家庭逃离城市的孩子在农村接受的教育可能会更差。联合国世界卫生组织的一项调查发现，八月份39个非洲国家中只有6个国家的学校完全开放;本月只有12所学校有望重新开放。肯尼亚关闭学校到2021年。据估计，受教育每年可以增加大约10%的年收入，这给贫困儿童带来的后果令人担忧。

The harm to health-care systems will be long-lasting, too. Clinics have been short of staff as medics have been unable to travel to work safely. People have been nervous about visiting them, too. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation says vaccination rates among children are dropping to levels last seen in the 1990s. Some of those jabs can be done once doctors are able to work properly again. But for infectious illnesses like measles, even a temporary pause may be lethal. Just 67% of the world’s children may get a crucial third dose of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (which is usually administered around the age of six months) this year. Last year 84% did.

（疫情）对医疗系统的危害也将是长期的。由于医务人员无法安全前往工作地点，诊所一直缺乏人手。人们（医生）也对于面对患者而感到紧张。比尔和梅林达·盖茨基金会表示，儿童的疫苗接种率已经下降到上世纪90年代的水平。有些疫苗可以在医生恢复正常工作后再注射。但是对于像麻疹这样的传染病来说，即使是短暂的停顿也可能是致命的。今年，世界上只有67%的儿童有机会接种破伤风三合一疫苗至关重要的第三剂(通常在6个月左右接种)。去年有84%的孩子完成接种。

词汇

Jab/（英，非正式）皮下注射（尤指接种疫苗），预防针

Measle/麻疹

diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine/破伤风三合一疫苗

Some hope that, as lockdowns lift, economies will start to grow again fast, as they often do after disasters. Large parts of Vietnam were destroyed during the war there, but the country bounced back rapidly thanks to economic reforms: between 1990 and 2015 real GDP per person tripled, according to IMF estimates. The portion of the population living on less than $1.90 a day has fallen from over 60% in the 1980s to less than 5% just before covid-19 struck.

一些人希望，随着封锁解除，经济将重新开始快速增长，就像灾难过后经常发生的那样。越南的大部分地区在战争中被摧毁，但由于经济改革，这个国家迅速反弹:根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的估计，1990年至2015年，越南实际人均GDP增长了两倍。每天生活费低于1.90美元的人口比例已从上世纪80年代的60%以上下降到新冠爆发前的不到5%。

 

Poor countries are unlikely to see similar growth in the short term. For the first time in 25 years sub-Saharan Africa will fall into recession this year. The IMF is forecasting a contraction of 3.2% in the region in 2020, and an underwhelming rebound to 3.4% growth next year. Among the G20 economies India’s shrank most in the spring; its GDP is set to fall by about 4.5% in 2020. It may take some time to catch up. “Historically certainly, growth and poverty reduction have gone hand in hand,” says Carmen Reinhart, chief economist at the World Bank. “But there are enormous question-marks about how much growth we’re going to get.”

贫穷国家在短期内不太可能看到类似的增长。撒哈拉以南非洲地区今年将出现25年来的首次衰退。国际货币基金组织预测，2020年该地区经济将收缩3.2%，明年增长将反弹至3.4%。在20国集团经济体中，印度在春季经济萎缩最为严重;其GDP在2020年将下降4.5%。可能需要一段时间才能赶上。世界银行首席经济学家Carmen Reinhart说:“从历史上看，增长和减贫是密不可分的，”“但是我们的经济能增长多少一直是个大大的问题”。

There are some signs of improvement. According to recent phone surveys by the World Bank in Ethiopia, 87% of respondents said they had had at least an hour’s work in the week before the interview, though that is still below pre-pandemic levels. Employment levels in Nigeria are almost back to their pre-pandemic level.

有一些改善的迹象。世界银行(World Bank)最近在埃塞俄比亚进行的电话调查显示，87%的受访者说，他们在采访前一周至少工作了一个小时，不过这仍低于疫情前的水平。尼日利亚的就业水平几乎回到了大流行前的水平。

 

But it seems likely that a return to growth will be fitful and uneven. People in poor countries are plainly desperate to return to work. Most are young, and so less vulnerable to covid-19. The World Economic Forum estimates that just 3% of Africans are over 65 years old, whereas over 40% are under 15. Hunger could kill them before the virus does.

但恢复增长的过程似乎是断断续续、不平衡的。贫穷国家的人们显然非常渴望重返工作岗位。大多数是年轻人，因此不易感染新冠。世界经济论坛估计只有3%的非洲人超过65岁，而超过40%的人在15岁以下。饥饿可能在病毒之前杀死它们。

词汇

 Fitful/断断续续的