经济学顶刊Journal of Political Economy 2023年第4期
Journal of Political Economy 2023年第4期
Volume 131, Issue 4
——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独
Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: An Intergenerational Approach
异质性与资产价格:代际分析
by Nicolae Gârleanu & Stavros Panageas
In an overlapping-generations economy, the consumption growth of a given cohort member (the “marginal agent”) differs from the aggregate consumption growth. A cohort member is faced with long-run consumption uncertainty even in the absence of aggregate (and within-cohort) consumption risk. This uncertainty allows the model to account for several stylized asset-pricing facts (high market price of risk and volatility, return predictability, low and nonvolatile interest rate) despite deterministic macroeconomic aggregates and inequality measures that are contemporaneously uncorrelated with asset returns. We devise and implement a methodology to measure the marginal agent’s consumption growth and evaluate the model’s quantitative implications.
在代际重叠经济中，特定群体成员(“边际代理人”)的消费增长不同于总消费增长。即使在没有总(和队列内)消费风险的情况下，队列成员也面临长期消费不确定性。尽管确定性宏观经济总量和不平等措施同时与资产回报不相关，但这种不确定性使模型能够解释几个风格化的资产定价事实(高风险和波动性的高市场价格、回报可预测性、低且无波动性的利率)。我们设计并实施了一种方法来衡量边际代理人的消费增长，并评估该模型的定量含义。
Distinctively Black Names and Educational Outcomes
独特的黑人名字和教育成果
by Daniel Kreisman & Jonathan Smith
Names can convey information about race or ethnicity and therefore can be used to discriminate against protected groups; many researchers have demonstrated as much through audit studies. Yet few studies link life outcomes with names using observational data. We use administrative data from over 3 million Black students to ask whether those with more statistically Black names have differential educational outcomes. We find that while test scores, college enrollment, and college completion are negatively correlated with Black names net of background characteristics, this relationship is absent when we compare across siblings within households.
名字可以传达有关种族或民族的信息，因此可以用来歧视受保护群体;许多研究人员已经通过审计研究证明了这一点。然而，很少有研究利用观测数据将生活结果与名字联系起来。我们使用了来自300多万黑人学生的行政数据，以询问那些在统计上更像黑人的名字是否有不同的教育成果。我们发现，虽然考试成绩、大学入学率和大学毕业率与黑人姓名的背景特征呈负相关，但当我们比较家庭中的兄弟姐妹时，这种关系就不存在了。
Social Networks with Unobserved Links
by Arthur Lewbel & Xi Qu & Xun Tang
带有未观察链接的社交网络
We point-identify and estimate linear social network models without observing any network links. The required data consist of many small networks of individuals, such as classrooms or villages, with individuals who are each observed only once. We apply our estimator to data from Tennessee’s Project STAR (Student-Teacher Achievement Ratio). Without observing the latent network in each classroom, we identify and estimate peer and contextual effects on students’ performance in mathematics. We find that peer effects tend to be larger in bigger classes and that increasing peer effects would significantly improve students’ average test scores in some classes.
我们点识别和估计线性社会网络模型，而不观察任何网络链接。所需的数据包括许多小型的个人网络，如教室或村庄，每个人只被观察一次。我们将我们的估计器应用于田纳西州的STAR项目(学生-教师成就比)的数据。在不观察每个教室的潜在网络的情况下，我们识别和估计同伴和情境对学生数学成绩的影响。我们发现同伴效应在更大的班级中往往更大，增加同伴效应会显著提高学生在某些班级的平均考试成绩。
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Nonergodicity, and Wealth Inequality
by Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Roger E. A. Farmer
We construct a model of an exchange economy in which agents trade assets contingent on an observable signal, the probability of which depends on public opinion. The agents in our model are replaced occasionally, and each person updates beliefs in response to observed outcomes. We show that the distribution of the observed signal is described by a quasi-nonergodic process and that people continue to disagree with each other forever. These disagreements generate large wealth inequalities that arise from the multiplicative nature of wealth dynamics, which makes successful bold bets highly profitable.
我们构建了一个交换经济模型，在这个模型中，代理人根据可观察到的信号进行资产交易，而该信号的概率取决于公众舆论。我们模型中的代理偶尔会被替换，每个人都会根据观察到的结果更新自己的信念。我们证明了观测到的信号的分布是由一个准非遍历过程描述的，并且人们永远继续彼此不同意。这些分歧产生了巨大的财富不平等，这种不平等源于财富动态的乘法性质，这使得成功的大胆赌注非常有利可图。
Race, Representation, and Local Governments in the US South: The Effect of the Voting Rights Act
美国南方的种族、代表制和地方政府:投票权法案的影响
by Andrea Bernini & Giovanni Facchini & Cecilia Testa
The Voting Rights Act of 1965 redefined race relations in the United States. Yet evidence on its effect on Black office holding remains scant. Using novel data on Black elected officials between 1962 and 1980, we assess the impact of the Voting Rights Act on the racial makeup of local governments in the Deep South. Exploiting predetermined differential exposure of Southern counties to the mandated federal intervention, we show that the latter fostered local Black office holding, particularly in the powerful county commissions, controlling local public finances. In the presence of election by district, covered counties experienced Black representation gains and faster capital spending growth.
1965年的《投票权法案》重新定义了美国的种族关系。然而，关于其对黑人担任公职的影响的证据仍然很少。利用1962年至1980年间黑人当选官员的新数据，我们评估了《投票权法案》对南方腹地地方政府种族构成的影响。利用预先确定的南方各县对联邦强制干预的不同暴露，我们表明后者促进了当地黑人办公室的持有，特别是在强大的县委员会中，控制着当地的公共财政。在按区选举的情况下，覆盖的县经历了黑人代表人数的增加和更快的资本支出增长。
The Multidimensional Impact of Teachers on Students
教师对学生的多维影响
by Nathan Petek & Nolan G. Pope
Test score measures of teacher quality may not fully capture teachers’ impact on students. We use test score and non–test score measures of student achievement and behavior to estimate multiple dimensions of teacher quality. We find that these two measures of teacher quality are only weakly correlated and that both affect students’ high school performance. A teacher removal simulation that uses both measures improves most long-term student outcomes by over 50%, compared to a policy that uses test scores alone. Our results also show that for high school outcomes the effects of teachers in later grades are larger than those in earlier grades and that performance in core elementary school subjects matters more than that in other subjects.
