Adapting for the future 适应未来

What the world can learn from Japan

The oldest big country has lessons for those that will soon age and shrink

第一段：

Two tales are often told about Japan. The first is of a nation in decline, with a shrinking and ageing population, sapped of its vitality. The second is of an alluring, hyper-functional, somewhat eccentric society—a nice place to eat sushi or explore strange subcultures, but of little wider relevance to the outside world. Both tales lead people to dismiss Japan. That is a mistake.

关于日本，人们通常会想到两个说法。一是日本正在经历人口萎缩和老龄化，社会活力不如从前；二是日本社会有吸引力、功能超全，甚至于有点古怪：日本是个品尝寿司、探索新颖亚文化的好地方，但它与外部世界没有更为广泛的联系。这两个说法让人们对日本不屑一顾，然而，这是一个错误的决定。

第二段：

As our special report this week argues, Japan is not an outlier—it is a harbinger. Many of the challenges it faces already affect other countries, or soon will, including rapid ageing, secular stagnation, the risk of natural disasters, and the peril of being caught between China and America. The fact that some of these problems hit Japan early makes it a useful laboratory for observing their effects and working out how to respond.

正如《经济学人》本周的特别报道所指出的一样，日本并不是例外，更像是一个先兆。日本面临的快速老龄化、经济长期停滞、自然灾害风险以及夹在中美之间等诸多挑战影响或即将影响其他国家。日本很早就遇到了这些问题，因此，观察这些问题的影响并研究如何应对，其他国家则可加以借鉴。

第三段：

One lesson is that societies must learn to live with risk. As the climate changes and natural hazards proliferate, countries must be able to bounce back from shocks. Painful experience has led Japan to invest in resilience. Bridges and buildings are retro fitted to make them earthquake-proof. After a big quake hit Kobe in 1995, leaving many without water, the city built an underground system to store 12 days’ supply for residents.

日本的一个教训是社会必须学会与风险共存。随着气候变化和自然灾害的增加，各国必须具备灾害恢复能力。以往痛苦的经历使得日本在工程韧性投入。为了抗震，日本的桥梁和建筑物都进行了改造。1995年神户地区发生大地震后，很多人都缺水，因此，神户市内建立了一个地下系统，可以为居民储存12天的饮用水。

第三段：

Many Japanese people understand that responding to disasters is everyone’s problem, not just the state’s. That has helped during the pandemic: mask-wearing has been virtually universal. Among g7 countries, Japan has the lowest death rate from covid-19 and the highest rate of double-vaccination.

许多日本人明白，应对灾难是每个人的责任，而不仅仅是政府的义务。这种观念让人们在新冠疫情期间普遍戴起口罩。在七国集团中，日本的新冠肺炎死亡率最低，双针疫苗接种率最高。

第四段：

Another lesson is that demography matters. Most societies will ultimately age and shrink like Japan. By 2050, one in six people in the world will be over 65 years old, up from one in 11 in 2019. The populations of 55 countries, including China, are projected to decline between now and 2050. Recent data suggest India will shrink sooner than expected.

另一个教训是人口因素的重要性。大多数社会最终都会像日本一样出现老龄化和人口减少情况。到2050年，世界上六分之一的人都将超过65岁，而2019年这一比例为十一分之一。从现在到2050年，包括中国在内的55个国家的人口预计将会减少。最近的数据显示，印度人口减少的速度将超过预期水平。

第五段：

Like climate change, the demographic sort is vast, gradual and seems abstract—until it is not. And like climate change, it will demand a transformation both of institutions and of individual behaviour. Remaining active for longer is essential. The Japanese government urges firms to keep staff until they are 70. Many stay on: 33% of 70- to 74 -year-olds now have jobs, up from 23% a decade ago.

就像气候变化一样，人口要素是庞大的而逐渐显现，看起来似乎很抽象，直到它具象化。就像气候变化一样，人口因素也需要企业和个人行为发生转变，比如，人们保持更长时间的工作很有必要，日本政府还敦促企业将员工保留至70岁。许多员工都继续留任：70至74岁的人中有33%继续工作，高于10年前23%的比例。

第六段：

Demographic change brings big economic challenges. Japan owes its sluggish growth in large measure to its shrinking population. If you look at the well-being of individual Japanese people, however, the picture is far rosier. In the decade from 2010 to 2019, Japan enjoyed the third-highest average rate of gdp growth per head in the g7, behind only Germany and America.

人口结构的变化带来了巨大的经济挑战。日本经济增长缓慢在很大程度上归因于人口的减少。然而，如果你看一看日本人的个人财富状况，情况要乐观得多。从2010年到2019年的十年间，日本的人均gdp增长率在七国集团中排名第三，仅次于德国和美国。

第七段：

Japan is a major creditor and the third-largest economy at current exchange rates. Its people live longer than the citizens of any other country. It is home to the biggest technology investor on the planet, a pioneering 5 g firm, and a host of global brands, from Uniqlo to Nintendo. Expertise in robots and sensors will help its firms make money from a wide range of new industrial technologies. Geopolitically, Japan plays a pivotal role between China, its largest trading partner, and America, its key security partner. It should not, in short, be a global afterthought.

日本是全球主要债权国，按当前汇率计算，日本也是第三大经济体。相比其他国家，日本人的寿命更长。日本也是世界上最大的技术投资方，拥有先进的5G企业，优衣库（Uniqlo）和任天堂（Nintendo）等一系列全球品牌。日本在机器人和传感器方面的专业知识将帮助日本企业从广泛的新工业技术中获利。在地缘政治方面，日本在其最大贸易伙伴中国和关键安全伙伴美国之间扮演着关键角色。简而言之，日本不应该被全球忘记。

第八段：

Japan’s mistakes offer another set of lessons. Living with lots of risk makes setting priorities harder. In the face of so many potential hazards, Japan took its eye off climate change, the greatest ongoing disaster of all. In 2020 it at last pledged to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, but the details are sketchy. Politicians pin their hopes on restarting nuclear plants mothballed after the Fukushima meltdown in 2011; this is unlikely as long as the public overestimates the dangers of nuclear power. Many bureaucrats, meanwhile, remain stubbornly sceptical of renewable energy. So Japan keeps burning coal, the filthiest fuel.

日本做的一些错误决定也提供了许多其他教训。生活在风险重重的环境中会让你更难分清轻重缓急。面对如此多的潜在危险，日本忽视了气候变化，而这是所有灾难中最严重的。直到2020年，日本最终承诺到2050年实现碳净零排放，但具体细节尚不明确。政客们把希望寄托在重启2011年福岛核泄漏后被封存的核电站上，但要是公众过度强调核能的危险性，这个想法就不太可能实现。与此同时，许多日本官员仍对可再生能源秉持顽固的怀疑态度，所以，日本还在继续燃烧最不环保的燃料——煤。

第九段：

One way to cope with a shrinking population is to get the most out of people. Japan will never live up to its potential while so many of its highly educated citizens are denied the chance to live up to theirs. Seniority-based promotion at traditional companies, combined with excessive deference to grey hairs, silences young voices and stifles innovation. That is why many of the brightest new graduates prefer to work for startups. Japan has done a good job of getting more women into the workforce in recent years, but they still have too few chances to rise. A dual-track labour system traps young people and women in precarious part-time jobs (which, among other things, makes them less keen to have children).

应对人口减少现象的一个办法是充分利用人口。倘若剥夺如此多受过高等教育的日本公民实现自己的潜力的机会，日本也将永远无法发挥其潜力。传统日本企业靠资历晋升的机制，再加上对老员工的过分顺从，扼杀了年轻人的声音，也扼杀了年轻人的创新性。这就是许多最聪明的应届毕业生更喜欢为初创公司工作的原因。近年来，日本让更多女性进入了职场，但她们晋升的机会仍然太少。双轨制的劳动力系统将年轻人和女性困于不稳定的兼职工作中，因此，他们不太愿意要孩子。

第十段：

Politicians tolerate all this in part because they feel little pressure to do otherwise. The Liberal Democratic Party has remained in power almost uninterrupted since 1955, thanks to a pathetically weak opposition. Senior figures, typically old men from political dynasties, are more conservative than the public they supposedly represent. For the public, in turn, today’s comfort dulls the impulse to press for a brighter tomorrow. Japan’s final lesson is about the danger of complacency.

政客们之所以容忍这一切，一个原因是他们并没有太大的压力去做出改变。自1955年以来，由于反对党太过弱小，自民党长期执政。自民党的高层人物通常是政坛上的“老人”，比他们所代表的公众更为保守。反过来，对公众来说，今天的舒适生活也让他们不再如此热衷于追求光明未来。因此，日本给世界提供的最后一个教训是趋于自满。