每天一篇经济学人 | Europe's coming winter per...

If you have spent the past few days being sizzled alive on a Mediterranean beach or slow-roasted on the streets of Berlin, London or Rome amid a heatwave, cold weather may be the last thing on your mind. But make no mistake, winter is coming, and it promises to be brutal and divisive because of an energy crisis that is rapidly worsening as Vladimir Putin strangles supplies of Russian gas. Several calamities in the past decade have come close to ripping Europe apart, including the euro crisis in the early 2010s and the migrant crisis in 2015. The winter energy shock of 2022 could yet join them. Once again, the continent’s unity and resolve are about to be tested.

如果你在过去的几天里，在地中海的海滩上被炙烤，或者在柏林、伦敦或罗马的街道上被热浪慢烤，你可能根本不会想到寒冷的天气。但毫无疑问，冬天就要来了，随着弗拉基米尔•普京扼制俄罗斯天然气供应，能源危机正在迅速恶化，这个冬天注定变得残酷且具有分裂性。过去十年发生的几次灾难几乎将欧洲击垮，其中包括2010年代初的欧元危机和2015年的移民危机。2022年的冬季能源冲击可能也会加入其中。欧洲大陆的团结和决心即将再次受到考验。

Most Europeans cannot yet see or smell the gastastrophe, but in the markets the warning signs are already flashing red. Prices for delivery of gas this winter, at €182/mwh ($184/mwh), are almost as high as in early March, after Russia invaded Ukraine, and seven times their long-run level. Governments are preparing bail-outs of crippled utilities in France and Germany, and some investors are betting on which industrial firms will go bust later this year as rationing takes hold. While most of Europe’s politicians fail to level with the public about the hard choices that lie ahead, even grizzled energy traders used to wars and coups have started to sound worried.

大多数欧洲人还未能看到或嗅到这场天然气灾难，但在市场上，预警信号已经亮起红灯。今年冬天的天然气输送价格为182欧元/兆瓦时(合184美元/兆瓦时)，几乎与3月初俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的价格一样高，这一价格是其长期水平的7倍。法国和德国的政府正准备为陷入困境的公用事业公司纾困，一些投资者正押注于随着定量配给政策的实施，哪些工业企业将在今年晚些时候破产。尽管大多数欧洲政客未能向公众坦诚未来面临的艰难选择，但就连见惯了战争和政变的头发花白的能源交易员也开始感到担忧。

A severe energy crisis has been a danger ever since Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. As sanctions and Russian blackmail threaten to cut Europe from its main supplier, gas is the choke-point. It satisfies a quarter of the continent’s energy demand and Russia supplies a third of that. The figures are higher for some countries, including Germany. Unlike oil and coal, which are fungible and traded globally, gas must either be piped or transported as liquefied natural gas (lng), using facilities that take years to build or reconfigure.

自从俄罗斯坦克开进乌克兰以来，严重的能源危机一直是一个威胁。由于制裁和俄罗斯的勒索威胁要切断欧洲与其主要供应国的联系，天然气成了症结所在。天然气满足了欧洲大陆四分之一的能源需求，俄罗斯提供了其中的三分之一。包括德国在内的一些国家的数字更高。与石油和煤炭不同的是，石油和煤炭是可替代的，可以在全球范围内交易，天然气必须通过管道输送或以液化天然气的形式运输，使用的设施需要数年时间才能建造或重新配置。

As Mr Putin understands all too well, gas is also a market in which Russia holds the whip hand. Its economy would collapse without oil exports that on average have been worth 10% of its GDP over the past five years—which is why Russia has gone to extraordinary and largely successful lengths to break the Western crude embargo. But Russia can live without gas exports, which are only 2% of GDP. By turning down the taps on its pipelines, it thinks it can inflict more pain on Europe than it visits on itself.

【1】the whip hand 支配地位

普京非常清楚，在天然气市场上，俄罗斯也掌握着主动权。如果没有过去五年平均占其GDP 10%的石油出口，其经济将会崩溃，这就是为什么俄罗斯在打破西方原油禁运方面不遗余力，而且取得了巨大成功。但是俄罗斯没有天然气出口也能生存，天然气出口仅占GDP的2%。它认为，通过关闭输送天然气管道的水龙头，它给欧洲带来的痛苦要大于给自己带来的痛苦。

Until a few weeks ago it seemed as if Europe might escape the worst, helped by more lng cargoes from America and elsewhere. Gas demand is seasonal, so it is vital to build up reserves in the spring and summer. From a scary 26% in March, by June Europe’s gas tanks were over half-full and on track to hit 80% by November, the minimum needed to get through winter.

直到几周前，欧洲似乎还能摆脱最糟糕的局面，这得益于来自美国和其他地方的更多液化天然气运输。天然气需求是季节性的，因此在春季和夏季增加储量至关重要。从3月份的可怕的26%，到6月份，欧洲的天然气储备箱已经满了一半以上，并有望在11月份达到80%，这是熬过冬天所需的最低限度80%。

Now the picture is worsening again. Glitches at a Norwegian gasfield are partly to blame, as is the hot weather which creates demand for electricity to power air-conditioning. But the big problem is the flow of gas to Europe from Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly. It was already running at about half the normal level and has dropped even further. Russia says that since July 11th, Nord Stream 1, an important pipeline, has been undergoing maintenance which will be completed by July 22nd. But it has not compensated by increasing supply via alternative pipelines that pass through Ukraine. Because traders think Mr Putin is deliberately squeezing supply, prices for delivery in two winters’ time, in 2023-24, are four times the normal level.

现在情况再次恶化。挪威一个天然气田的故障是部分原因，炎热的天气也造成了对空调供电的需求。但最大的问题是俄罗斯天然气垄断企业俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司向欧洲输送的天然气。它的运行速度已经仅剩正常水平的一半左右，而且还进一步下降。俄罗斯表示，自7月11日以来，北溪1号这个重要的管道一直在进行维护，将于7月22日完工。不过它还没有采取措施，即通过增加经由乌克兰的供应，来弥补（北溪1号维修）造成的减供。由于交易员认为普京是在故意压缩供应，所以2023-2024年两个冬天的交付价格是正常水平的4倍。

Consumers, who use gas directly for heating and cooking, as well as indirectly as electricity, have little idea of what may hit them. At the moment, many are protected by price caps, subsidies and long-term contracts. The typical German pays at least 70% less than the market price for gas. Industrial users such as chemicals and glassmaking firms are in trouble, as well as a broad list of businesses, including many German champions. Across the euro zone a halt to Russian gas flows could lower GDP growth by 3.4 percentage points and raise inflation by 2.7 percentage points, according to ubs, a bank. In Germany the hit would be still worse.

消费者直接使用天然气取暖和做饭，以及间接使用天然气发电，他们对于他们可能受到的冲击一无所知。目前，许多消费者受到价格上限、补贴和长期合同的保护。一般德国人支付的天然气价格至少比市场价低70%。化工和玻璃制造等工业用户以及包括许多德国龙头企业在内的众多企业都陷入了困境。根据瑞士联合银行的说法，在整个欧元区，俄罗斯停止天然气供应可能会使GDP增长下降3.4个百分点，并使通货膨胀上升2.7个百分点。在德国，打击将更为严重。

You may think a recession and inflation would be tolerable—after all, in 2020 Europe’s covid-hit GDP fell by 6%. But the energy threat is more insidious. Shortages could trigger beggar-thy-neighbour behaviour as states hoard gas, stopping it from flowing on to the next country. Britain has threatened as much. Gaps in the wholesale price of gas in different eu countries suggest that firms fear a breakdown in the single market. Governments’ debts are higher than ever. A stagflationary shock could raise fears of defaults or even of an Italian debt crisis that would threaten the entire euro zone. A popular backlash over energy prices could also erode popular support across the continent for standing up to Mr Putin. 

你可能认为经济衰退和通货膨胀是可以容忍的，毕竟，2020年欧洲受新冠疫情影响的GDP下降了6%。但能源威胁隐患更大。天然气短缺可能会引发以邻为壑的行为，因为各国会囤积天然气，阻止其流向下一个国家。英国也受到了同样的威胁。不同欧盟国家天然气批发价格的差距表明，企业担心单一市场的崩溃。政府的债务比以往任何时候都高。滞胀冲击可能引发对违约甚至意大利债务危机的担忧，这将威胁整个欧元区。公众对能源价格的普遍强烈反对，可能削弱欧洲大陆应该“勇敢对抗”普京的共识。

For all these reasons, European governments must rouse themselves to face the energy shock now. As with vaccines, they need to transcend national divisions. The European Commission is working on a plan to present to an emergency summit on July 26th. Given their roles in the gas trade, the plan should include Britain and Norway. Supply needs to be maximised, which is why common purchases of lng cargoes are worth pursuing and why the Netherlands should postpone closing its Groningen gasfield next year.

出于所有这些原因，欧洲各国政府现在必须振作起来，面对能源冲击。与疫苗一样，它们需要超越国家分歧。欧盟委员会正在制定一项计划，将于7月26日召开紧急峰会。考虑到它们在天然气贸易中的角色，该计划应该包括英国和挪威。供应需要最大化，这就是为什么共同采购液化天然气是值得的，也是为什么荷兰应该推迟明年关闭格罗宁根天然气田的原因。

Next is the need for a common hierarchy governing rationing, applied across the continent: intensive energy users should suffer first, consumers last. Countries need to share storage capacity and guarantee free movement of gas. The more integrated the system, the more resilient it will be. Last, politicians should be honest with the public. Consumer prices need to rise now in order to curtail demand and help build up storage. Help will come next winter from even small voluntary changes in household habits, such as keeping the heating lower.

其次，需要建立一个统一的、适用于整个欧洲大陆的配给层级制度：密集型能源使用者首当其冲，消费者最后。各国应共享储存能力，并保障天然气自由流动。这个系统的整合程度越高，它的弹性就越大。最后，政治家应该对公众诚实。消费者价格现在需要上涨，以抑制需求并帮助增加存储。明年冬天，即使是家庭习惯上很小的自愿改变，比如降低暖气温度，也会带来帮助。

The prize for Europe is not just getting through the coming months. Europe will forever free itself from Russian energy intimidation. It will also have created a coherent continent-wide energy-security mechanism that will help accelerate the shift to cleaner energy. Europe has a habit of coming together during crises. It is time to do so again. If you are reading this in Paris or Madrid with the air-conditioning on, turn it down a notch. 

对欧洲来说，这一回报不只是熬过接下来的几个月。欧洲将永远摆脱俄罗斯的能源威胁。它还将建立一个连贯的全欧洲大陆能源安全机制，这有助于加速向清洁能源的转变。欧洲习惯于在危机期间团结一致。现在是再次这样做的时候了。如果你正在开着空调的巴黎或马德里读这篇文章，请把温度调低一档。