Riding high

蒸蒸日上

America’s expansion is now the longest on record

美国的经济扩张是有记录以来最长的扩张

What could bring it to an end?

怎样的事件才会使这种扩张收盘？

Jul 11th 2019

AROUND THE world investors, businesses and central bankers are grappling with a startling fact: at the end of July America’s economy will have been growing for 121 months, the longest run since records began in 1854, according to the NBER, a research body. History suggests there will be a recession soon. And plenty of people are gloomy. Bond markets have been sounding the alarm, as long-term interest rates sink below short-term ones, often a harbinger of a downturn. Manufacturing firms are wary; indices of business confidence are tumbling. Yet equity investors are still buoyant. The stockmarket is going gangbusters, rising by 19% so far this year. And in June America’s economy created a whopping 224,000 new jobs, more than twice as many as needed to keep up with the growth of the workforce. The result is a puzzle that matters a great deal. America’s economy accounts for a quarter of global output, so if it stumbles the world will, too. But if it proves able to extend the cycle a lot longer, it may be time to rewrite the rules for how all rich economies behave.

世界各地的投资者、企业和中央银行家都在努力应对一个令人吃惊的事实:根据NBER(一家研究机构)的数据，到7月底，美国经济将增长121个月，这是自1854年有记录以来最长的增长。历史表明，经济衰退即将来临。很多人都很悲观。债券市场一直在拉响警报，因为长期利率低于短期利率，而这往往是经济低迷的先兆。制造企业很谨慎;商业信心指数正在下跌。然而，股票投资者仍表现活跃。股票市场正在大放异彩，今年到目前为止上涨了19%。6月，美国经济创造了22.4万个新工作岗位，是满足劳动力增长需求的两倍多。这一系列表现是一个非常重要的谜题。美国经济占全球产出的四分之一，因此，如果它遭遇挫折，世界也会遭殃。但如果事实证明它能够将周期延长得更长，或许是时候改写所有富裕经济体的行为规则了。

词汇

Harbinger/  先驱；前兆

Wary/  谨慎的；机警的

Buoyant/轻快的；有浮力的；上涨的

Gangbuster/势如破竹

Whopping/巨大的；天大的

 

The conflicting signals reflect an unusually sluggish and stretched expansion. Some of that is to be expected after the worst financial crisis in 80 years, but as our briefing explains, it is also owing to deeper changes in America’s $21trn economy. Growth is slow but more stable as activity has shifted to services and intangible assets. Thanks to new regulations and the recent memory of the bust, there are few signs of wild mortgage lending, over-investment or reckless financial firms. Inflation is remarkably subdued. These forces mean that a placid expansion can continue well beyond historical norms, but also suggest that the way it will eventually end will be different. Recessions used to be triggered by housing bubbles, price surges or industrial busts. Now you should worry about globally interconnected firms, a financial system addicted to cheap money and a political system that is toying with extreme policies because living standards are not rising fast enough.

这些相互矛盾的信号反映出经济增长异常缓慢和乏力。在经历了80年来最严重的金融危机之后，其中一些是可以预见的，但正如我们的简报所解释的，这也要归因于美国21万亿美元经济的更深层次的变化。随着经济活动转向服务业和无形资产，增长虽然缓慢，但更为稳定。由于新法规的出台以及近期对经济萧条的记忆，几乎没有迹象表明疯狂的抵押贷款、过度投资或鲁莽的金融公司。通货膨胀明显受到抑制。这些力量意味着，平静的扩张可以远远超出历史规范，但也表明，它最终的结局将是不同的。过去，经济衰退是由房地产泡沫、价格飙升或工业萧条引发的。现在，你应该担心的是全球相互关联的公司，沉迷于廉价资金的金融体系，以及因为生活水平上升不够快而玩弄极端政策的政治体系。

词汇

Sluggish/萧条的；迟钝的；

Intangible/无形的，触摸不到的；难以理解的

Subdue/抑制，克制

Placid/平静的；温和的

 

Average GDP growth during this expansion has been a mere 2.3%, much lower than the 3.6% that was seen in America’s three previous expansions. That reflects some deep malaises. The workforce is ageing. Big firms hoard profits and invest less. Productivity growth has been slow. Robert Gordon, an economist, worries that America’s genius for innovation is flagging. Emojis and bitcoins are no substitute for breakthroughs such as jet engines or the internet.

在这次经济扩张中，平均GDP增长率仅为2.3%，远低于美国前三次经济扩张中3.6%的增长率。这反映出一些深层次的弊病。劳动力正在老化。大公司囤积利润，减少投资。生产率增长缓慢。经济学家罗伯特•戈登担心美国的创新天赋正在衰退。表情符号和比特币无法取代飞机引擎或互联网等突破性进展。

词汇

Malaise/萎靡；不适

Hoard/积敛；储存

That is the bad news. The good news is that the economy may be less volatile. A third of America’s 20th-century recessions were caused by industrial slumps or oil-price shocks, according to Goldman Sachs. Today manufacturing is just 11% of GDP and each dollar of output requires a quarter less energy than in 1999. Services have become even more vital, at 70% of output. Instead of fickle factories and Florida condos, investment has shifted to intellectual property, which now accounts for more than a quarter of the total. After the searing experience of 2008, the value of the housing stock is 143% of GDP, well below the peak of 188%. Banks are rammed full of capital.

这是个坏消息。好消息是，经济可能不会那么动荡。据高盛称，美国20世纪三分之一的经济衰退是由工业衰退或油价冲击造成的。今天的制造业仅占GDP的11%，每一美元的产出所需要的能源比1999年减少了四分之一。服务业变得更加重要，占产出的70%。投资已经转移到知识产权领域，而不是变化无常的工厂和佛罗里达州的公寓，目前知识产权占总投资的四分之一以上。在经历了2008年的惨痛经历后，住房存量占GDP的143%，远低于188%的峰值。银行堆积着资本。

词汇

Volatile/不稳定的；反复无常的

Fickle/  浮躁的；易变的；变幻无常的

Condo/公寓

Rammed/冲压成的，捣打成的；挤满了人的

 

Most remarkable of all is very low inflation, which has averaged 1.6% over the course of the expansion. In many past downturns the jobs market overheated, causing inflation and leading the Federal Reserve to hit the brakes. Today the dynamics are different. The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.7%, close to the lowest in half a century, but wage growth is only a tepid 3%. Workers have less bargaining power in a globalised economy. The Fed’s credibility helps, too—most people believe that it can keep long-run inflation at about 2%. Given that racing prices are less of a worry and that it lacks the ammunition to deal with a serious downturn, the Fed is being more active at signalling that it will ease policy when growth dips. This week the Fed signalled it would soon nudge rates down from today’s 2.25-2.5%, to keep growth going.

最引人注目的是极低的通货膨胀率，在经济扩张的过程中平均只有1.6%。在过去的许多衰退中，就业市场过热，导致通货膨胀，导致美联储踩刹车。今天的情况有所不同。失业率已降至3.7%，接近半个世纪以来的最低水平，但工资增幅仅为3%。在全球化的经济中，工人的议价能力更弱。美联储的信誉也有帮助，大多数人相信它可以将长期通胀率保持在2%左右。考虑到价格上涨不那么令人担忧，而且美联储缺乏应对严重衰退的“弹药”，美联储正更加积极地发出信号，表明当经济增长放缓时，它将放松政策。本周，美联储暗示将很快将利率从目前的2.25-2.5%小幅下调，以保持经济增长。

词汇

Tepid/  微温的，温热的

Ammunition/弹药；军火

All this supports the idea that the familiar triggers for recession are still absent and that the moderately good times can roll on for years yet. The trouble with this logic is that, just as the economy has changed, so have the risks. Inevitably it is hard to identify exactly what might go wrong, but three new kinds of problems loom large.

这些现象和措施都支持这样一种观点，即人们熟悉的引发衰退的诱因仍然不存在，适度的繁荣时期还可能持续数年。这种逻辑的问题在于，随着经济的变化，风险也在变化。不可避免地，我们很难确定到底是什么出了问题，但有三种新的问题凸显出来。

 

First, America’s glossy corporate champions have unfamiliar vulnerabilities. Although fewer make physical goods, most rely on global production chains that are being shaken by the trade war. This is depressing investment and could yet produce a shock—imagine if Apple was cut off from its factories in China. Tech firms, meanwhile, now account for a third of all investment by listed firms, including intellectual property. Other businesses outsource their need for IT services to a few giants. One of them, Alphabet, spent $45bn in the past year, five times more than Ford. But 85% of its sales come from advertising, which has been cyclical in the past. It and other tech firms also face a regulatory storm.

首先，美国光鲜亮丽的企业冠军们有着不为人知的弱点。虽然生产实物产品的企业较少，但大多数都依赖于受到贸/易/战冲击的全球生产链。这是一项令人沮丧的投资，但也可能产生令人震惊的后果——想象一下，如果苹果被切断在中国的工厂。与此同时，包括知识产权在内，科技公司目前占上市公司总投资的三分之一。其他企业将他们对IT服务的需求外包给一些巨头。其中之一Alphabet在过去一年的支出为450亿美元，是福特的5倍。但其85%的销售额来自广告，这在过去是周期性的。It和其他科技公司也面临着监管风暴。

 

The second risk is financial. Although house prices and the banks have been tamed, total private debts remain high by historical standards, at 250% of GDP. An edifice of asset prices and borrowing rests on the assumption of permanently low and stable interest rates, making it more fragile than it looks. If rates rise there will be distress among some firms, and trouble in debt markets—there was a sell-off in late 2018. If, by contrast, the Fed has to cut rates to near zero for a prolonged period to sustain growth, it could weaken the banks, as Europe has found.

第二个风险是金融方面的。尽管房价和银行都得到了控制，但以历史标准衡量，私人债务总额仍然很高，达到GDP的250%。资产价格和借贷的大厦建立在长期低利率和稳定利率的假设之上，这使得它比看上去更加脆弱。如果利率上升，一些公司将会陷入困境，债务市场也会陷入困境——2018年末出现了抛售。相比之下，如果美联储不得不在较长时期内将利率降至接近于零的水平以维持经济增长，就会削弱银行的实力，正如欧洲所发现的那样。

词汇

Edifice/大厦；大建筑物

A recession made in Washington?

华盛顿会是制造衰退的罪魁祸首吗?

The last danger is politics. As the economy has trodden a narrow path, the boundaries of economic policy have been blown wide apart, partly out of frustration at a decade of sluggish wages. President Donald Trump has tried to gin up growth, by cutting taxes and attacking the Fed. Most Democrats are keen to let rip on government spending. More extreme policies hover in the wings. On the left, modern monetary theory (a kind of money printing) and massive state intervention are popular. One of Mr Trump’s new nominees to the Fed board supports a gold standard. The greatest threat to America’s long and placid expansion is that a new era of wild policy may be just beginning.

最后一个危险是政治。随着经济走上了一条狭窄的道路，经济政策的界线被炸得四分五裂，部分原因是对10年来工资低迷感到沮丧。美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)试图通过减税和攻击美联储来刺激经济增长。多数民主党人热衷于大肆挥霍政府开支。更极端的政策正在酝酿之中。在左翼，现代货币理论(一种关于货币印刷的理论)和大规模的国家干预很受欢迎。特朗普提名的美联储新成员之一支持金本位。美国长期而平稳的扩张所面临的最大威胁是，一个疯狂政策的新时代可能才刚刚开始。

词汇

Trodden——tread /踩，践踏；行走

gin up/激起

hover/盘旋，翱翔；徘徊