Day71「外刊·精读·听力」（下）人丁寥落，意兴阑珊：人口老龄化和生育率低下会带来什

今天我们一起精读《The。Economist》2023.6.3社论

The old and the zestless

人丁寥落，意兴阑珊

Ageing economies will suffer not just fiscal problems, but also a dearth of new ideas

老龄化的经济体不仅会遇到财政问题，还有缺乏新想法的问题。

这篇文章共15段（下），加油！

上篇回顾：Day70「外刊·精读·听力」人丁寥落，意兴阑珊：人口老龄化和生育率低下会带来什么后果？

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Briefing - Ageing and innovation20:48

译文及学习笔记：

*序号按照原文段落顺序排列

*中文译文为笔者自译，仅供学习交流使用，如有任何错误或不同意见，诚请批评指正!

1

In research published in 2021, Mary Kaltenberg and Adam Jaffe, both economists, and Margie Lachman, a psychologist, used a database of 3m patents filed over more than 40 years to explore the relationship between innovation and age. Depending on the scientific discipline, the authors

note that patenting rates peak in a researcher's late 30s and early 40s. The rates of patenting then decline only gradually through their 40s and 50s.

在2021年由经济学家Mary Kaltenberg、Adam Jaffe和心理学家Margie Lachman发表的研究报告中，他们使用超过40年来积累的300万专利作为数据库，来探索创新和年龄之间的关系。根据学科划分，作者表示专利率在研究者30-40岁之间达到高峰，并在40-50岁之间逐渐下降。

2

But for disruptive innovations, which fundamentally change a scientific field, the picture is very different. The researchers used a measure of disruptiveness based on the number of citations of a given invention in future patents. If a particular patent is cited by subsequent inventors, but that patent's technological predecessors are not, it is categorised as a disruptive rather than an incremental innovation. For instance, the work of Kary Mullis, a Nobelprize­winning biochemist, on polymerase chain reactions underpins much modern genetic and medical testing. After Mullis published his work, citations of prior technologies in the same field nosedived. Mr Jaffe, Ms Kaltenberg and Ms Lachman find that patents filed by the very youngest inventors are much more likely to be completely novel, discipline­changing innovations, and that as inventors age the patents they file become increasingly incremental.

但是对于能从根本上改变一个科学领域的破坏性创新来说，情况就非常不同了。研究人员使用未来专利中某项发明被引用次数来测量破坏性创新的程度。如果一项特定的专利被后来的发明者引用，但该专利的技术前身没有被引用，那么它被归类为破坏性创新，而不是增量创新。例如，诺贝尔奖获得者生化学家Kary Mullis关于聚合酶链反应的研究是现代基因学和药物测试的根基。在Mullis发表了他的研究后，同一领域之前的技术引用量骤降。Jaffe、Kaltenberg和Lachma发现非常年轻的发明者提交的专利更有可能是全新的、改变学科的创新，而随着发言者年纪增长，他们提交的专利更多是增量创新。

citations

n.引文;(被)引用，引证;引述;表彰;引语;表扬;(尤指对战争中英勇表现的)嘉奖令

His citation says he showed outstanding and exemplary courage.

颁给他的嘉奖令称他表现出非凡的勇气，堪为表率。

The court could issue a citation and fine Ms. Robbins.

法庭可能会发传票，对罗宾斯女士处以罚款。

incremental

Adj.增加的;递增的

...our ability to add production capacity at relatively low incremental cost...

我们以相对较低的边际成本增加产能的能力

Run tests on every build, including incremental developer builds.

在每一个构建上面运行测试，包括增加的开发人员构建。

nosedive

暴跌；急转直下；猛跌

Toyota sales have nosedived due to the soaring value of the yen, which makes Japanese products more expensive overseas.

由于日元大幅度升值推高了日本产品在海外的价格，所以丰田汽车的销售急剧下滑。

创新的四种类型分别是增量创新（incremental innovation）、邻近创新（adjacent innovation）、破环性创新（breakthrough innovation）和激进创新（radical innovation）。

3

This matters, because innovation raises productivity. Improvements to existing processes and the invention of entirely new ways of doing things enable more to be produced with the same amount of labour and capital. In the long term, it is only by raising productivity that standards of living can be lifted. Demographic decline will chip away at that contribution over time by reducing the number of novel ideas stemming from the fluidly intelligent minds of young workers.

创新很重要，因为创新提高生产力。对现有流程的改进和发明全新的方法可以在同样时间和资金的情况下实现更多产出。长远来看，只有提高了生产力水平才能提高生活标准。人口下降将会削弱创新带来的贡献，因为依靠年轻劳动者们的流体智力而诞生的创新想法也在随着人口的下降而减少。

chip away

铲除；削掉；拆掉; 凿（敲）下碎片

I'll not let you chip away my career.

我不会让你一分一分毁了我的事业。

Chip away any unsound concrete leaving the surface level but rough.

去除任何使表面平坦却粗糙的变质混凝土。

Chip away at

步破坏，渐渐削弱（观点、感觉或体制）; 逐渐还清（债务）; 慢慢减少（金额）

Her comments were beginning to chip away at his self-confidence.

她的话开始削弱他的自信心。

Any decline in this market could chip away at the buying power of some middle-class Chinese.

房地产市场逐渐衰弱，可能削弱中国中产阶级的购买力。

Half-heartedness in an entrepreneurial endeavor will chip away at your drive to succeed.

在创业过程中三心二意，将让你失去成功的动力。

4

Even a fractionally lower rate of productivity growth will compound over the years to make an economy significantly smaller. During the particularly rapid post­war boom in economic growth in the rich world, between 1947 and 1973, productivity growth accounted for about 60% of the rise in output per worker in America, Britain,France, Italy, Japan and West Germany. America has grown much faster than the rest of the rich world since the global financial crisis of 2007­09, thanks in large part to its bigger gains in productivity.

即便生产力增速的微小下降，也会导致经济增速持续几年下滑。在发达国家战后经济增长繁荣期，即1947年至1973年间，生产力增长占据美国、英国、法国、意大利、日本和西德工人人均产出增长的60%左右。自2007-2009年金融危机以来，美国比其他发达国家发展得快得多，很大程度上要归功于生产力的大发展。

fractionally

[ˈfrækʃənəli]

adv. 很小; 很少

5

If the decline in fertility was confined to a few countries, or a particular region, the impact on innovation might not be so severe. Technologies invented in one country eventually spread to others. The spinning jenny and the computer chip didn't have to be reinvented in every corner of the world to improve productivity globally. But the fact that fertility is declining simultaneously in a large proportion of countries means that the consequences in terms of reduced innovation will be felt globally.

如果生育率下降只局限于很少的几个国家，或者一个特别的地区，那么其对创新产生的影响可能不会这么严重。一个国家的发明最终会传播到其他国家。世界的各个地方不需要都发明纺织机和电脑芯片才能提高生产力。但是事实上，大多数国家的生育率都在同时下降，这意味着创新减少造成的影响也是全球性的。

Be confined to

局限在; 只限于; 禁闭; 限于

The so-called knowledge has been always confined to perceptual and intelligent levels.

而所谓的知识，也就始终被局限在感性的和悟性的两个层次上。

6

Some researchers believe such a demographically driven reduction in innovation is already under way in parts of the world. James Liang, a ..economist and demographer, notes that entrepreneurship is markedly lower in older countries: an increase of one standard deviation in the median age in a country, equivalent to about 3.5 years, leads to a decrease of 2.5 percentage points in the entrepreneurship rate (the proportion of adults who start their own business). That is a huge effect, considering the global entrepreneurship rate was around 6.1% in 2010.

一些研究者认为这种由人口下降导致的创新减少在一些国家已经出现。经济学家和人口学家梁建章表示老龄化国家的创业水平已经在下降：一个国家的中位年龄每增加一个标准差，相当于3.5岁，会导致创业率下降2.5个百分点（创业率指成年人创业的比例）。考虑到2021年全球创业率仅6.1%，这无疑会影响巨大。

Deviation

[ˌdiːviˈeɪʃn]

n. 偏差; 偏离; 背离; 违背

7

What is more, this relationship does not seem to be simply a function of the relative lack of young people in ageing societies. Young people in such countries also seem to start businesses at lower rates than their peers in less wizened societies.

此外，这种关系并不仅仅是因为老龄化社会相对缺少年轻人的作用产生的，在这种社会中的年轻人与在老龄化程度不那么高的社会中的同龄人相比，创业率也比较低。

wizened

/ˈwɪznd/

adj.干瘪的;(由于年老)多皱的，干枯的

wizened apples

皱瘪的苹果

8

This phenomenon, according to Mr Liang, may be the cause of Japan's “entrepreneur vacuum”. As recently as 2010, Japanese inventors were the biggest producers of patents in 35 global industries, according to the World Intellectual Property Organisation, a UN agency. By 2021 they were the leaders in just three. Japan has fallen behind not only ..., which now occupies most of the top spots, but America too.

梁建章表示这种现象也许是导致了日本“创业真空”的原因。根据联合国机构世界知识产权组织数据，早在2010年，日本发明者已经是全球35个国家中最大的专利生产者。2021年，日本仅仅在三个行业领先，日本不仅落在了..后面，如今..包揽了大部分世界第一，还落后于美国。

9

Looking only at the most novel fields, in which radical new innovations are most likely, makes the picture no better. In an analysis published by the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance, Antonin Bergeaud and Cyril Verluise note that Japan's contribution to genome editing and block chain technology has shrunk to almost nothing. Once­leading roles in hydrogen storage, self­driving vehicles and computer vision (a form of artificial intelligence that trains computers to interpret images) have been reduced to supporting roles behind America, China or both (see chart 2).

近看最新领域，即最有可能出现激进创新的领域，并不会改善情况。在伦敦经济学院经济效益中心发表的一篇分析中，Antonin Bergeaud和Cyril Verluise表示日本在基因编辑和区块链技术上的贡献几乎将至零。曾经在氢能储存，自动驾驶和电脑视觉（一种训练电脑解读图片的人工智能）领先的日本现在已沦为美国或..，或两者的辅助角色。

10

Needling nabobs of natalism

Governments are largely powerless to reverse declining birth rates. Attempts in various countries to prod women to have more children have typically yielded meagre results. Research on the expensive support provided by governments in Hungary and Poland, in the form of income­tax credits and flat payments respectively, suggests a limited effect on fertility. Singapore offers large grants to the parents of new children, which now run to S$11,000 ($8,300) for the first two children, and S$13,000 for any more, on top of tax rebates and child­care subsidies. Parents are given priority over other buyers in subsidised apartment sale schemes. But Singapore's total fertility rate is just 1.0: whatever the effect of the policies, it is nowhere near big enough to avert demographic decline.

疯狂催生

政府很难扭转生育率下降的趋势。很多国家鼓励妇女生育更多孩子的尝试收效甚微。关于匈牙利和波兰政府提供大额补助的研究表明，所得税抵免和统一退款对生育率作用有限。新加坡为生育了儿童的家庭提供大额奖金，前两个出生的孩子奖励达到1.1万新币（折合8300美元），每多生育一个奖励1.3万新币，享受最高的税收减免和儿童保障补助。在补贴型公寓销售计划中，育儿父母享有优先权。但是新加坡的生育率只有1：不管政策作用如何，人口下降仍无法避免。

nabobs

[ˈneɪbɒb]

在印度发财的欧洲人, 富豪 

在1700年代后期，东印度公司官员因返回英国并炫耀他们在印度积累的巨大财富而臭名昭著。它们被称为" nabobs"，是nawab的英语发音，nagob是大人物的头衔。

natalism

n.鼓励生育政策; 鼓励生育的态度

Prod

[prɑːd]

v. 戳; 督促; 捅; 催促; 鼓动; 杵

n. 戳; 捅; 鼓励; 催促; 提醒; (赶牲畜用的)尖棒，刺棒; 杵; （贬称）新教徒

meagre

[ˈmiːɡər]

adj. 数量很少的; 少量且劣质的

11

Of course, birth rates are not the only, or even the main determinant of productivity. If they were, some of sub­Saharan Africa's poorest economies would be the world's most dynamic. Levels of education, the reliability of legal and financial systems and the existence of networks of innovators interacting with one another all matter. Japan is still more innovative than many rich countries with a lower average age. But demography can magnify or muffle a country's underlying potential.

当然，出生率并不是生产力的唯一决定条件。如果是的话，那么撒哈拉以南非洲最贫穷的国家将会成为世界最强劲的经济体。教育水平，法律和金融系统的可靠性，以及创新者互动网络都很重要。日本仍然比很多平均年龄较低的发达国家更有创新力。但是，人口情况仍会放大或压抑一个国家蕴含的潜力。

Muffle

[ˈmʌfl]

vt. 压抑(声音); 使(声音)降低; 压低; 裹住，覆盖，蒙住(以保暖); 使听不清;

n. 围巾; 拳击用手套; (反刍动物等的)上唇露肉部分和鼻子; 疯子用皮手套

He tried to muffle the alarm clock by putting it under his pillow.

他把闹钟塞在枕头底下，想压低声音。

12

That suggests ways to counteract the effects of demographic decline on innovation, by focusing on other factors that increase productivity. The most obvious is education, which allows ageing societies to make better use of the dwindling pool of young people. Especially in middle­income countries such as Brazil and ..., there are millions who do not receive proper schooling, and whose contribution to the economy is therefore small. The same is true, albeit to a lesser extent, in much of the rich world. No matter how intelligent they are, uneducated workers cannot hope to come up with groundbreaking ideas in medicine or computing, say. As the potential workforce shrinks, maximising the output of everyone in it will become essential, and could help offset the effects of an ageing population for some time, at least in the realm of innovation.

这就说明仍有一些可以抵消人口下降对创新造成影响的方法，即重视其他可以提升生产力因素。最明显的就是教育，这可以让社会更好发挥正在减少的年轻人资源池的作用。特别是像巴西和...这样的中等收入国家，数百万人无法受到良好的教育，因此这些人对经济的贡献很少。这对很多发达国家也一样，尽管程度较低。不管未受教育的工人有多聪明，他们很难在医药或电脑科技方面产生突破性的创新。当潜在的劳动力缩水时，最大化每个人的产出将成为关键，而且可以在一段时间内抵消人口老龄化带来的影响，至少在创新领域。

Counteract

[ˌkaʊntərˈækt]

vt. 抵消; 抵抗; 抵制

Schools are taking action to counteract bullying.

学校正在采取措施抵制恃强凌弱的行为。

albeit 

[ˌɔːlˈbiːɪt]

conj.       尽管; 虽然

13

Technology can also provide ways to cope with demographic change, from telemedicine to the increased use of robots in service industries. Such innovations can undoubtedly ease the difficulties presented by an ageing society, whether by directly contributing to the care of the elderly or by automating the roles of young workers. But the shrinking number of innovative young thinkers will, ironically, reduce the number of such valuable new ideas.

科技也能提供应对人口结构变化的方法，从远程医疗到服务行业增加机器人的使用。这种创新无疑可以减轻老龄化社会带来的困难，不管是直接照顾老年人还是自动化年轻人的角色。但讽刺的是，具有创新力的年轻思想者的不断缩减也意味着这种极富价值的创意也在减少。

14

A shortfall in human innovation may also be less damaging if offset by new ideas conceived by artificial intelligence. There seems no doubt that machines will soon be working out how to make incremental improvements in existing processes—indeed, in some spheres, they already are.Whether machines will ever learn how to generate disruptive new ideas, however, remains a matter of debate.

如果人工智能带来的新创意能够抵消人类创意的不足就不会有什么损失了。看起来无疑机器很快就会算出如何改进现有流程——事实上，在某些领域，它们已经做到了。然而，机器是否能学会产生破坏性创意尚存争议。

Shortfall

n.缺口;差额;亏空

15

Plasmon's film, about the last child in Italy, ends with a discussion of children as a symbol of hope. It directs viewers to a website that suggests policies to promote bigger families. The website, in turn, asks readers to sign a petition calling for action. Scarcely 8,000 have done so. As the number of Italians continues to shrink, and especially the number of young ones, it is not just buyers of baby food who will be in short supply. Plasmon will struggle to find creative talents to dream up clever advertising campaigns, much less devise new policies to reverse the baby bust.

派乐萌的电影讲述了意大利最后一个孩子的故事，以儿童作为希望的象征为结尾。这部电影引导观众到一个网站留下促进生育的政策建议。这个网站请读者们签署一份呼吁采取行动的请愿书。只有不到8千人这么做。当意大利人口不断下降，特别是年轻人口，不仅仅是婴儿食物的购买者会减少。派乐萌会寻找更具创意的人才想出更聪明的广告营销策略，而不是想出可以扭转婴儿荒的新政策。

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