Day70「外刊·精读·听力」人丁寥落，意兴阑珊：人口老龄化和生育率低下会带来什么后果

今天我们一起精读《The。Economist》2023.6.3社论Briefing版块：

The old and the zestless

人丁寥落，意兴阑珊

Ageing economies will suffer not just fiscal problems, but also a dearth of new ideas

老龄化的经济体不仅会遇到财政问题，还有缺乏新想法的问题。

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Briefing - Ageing and innovation20:48

译文及学习笔记：

*序号按照原文段落顺序排列

*中文译文为笔者自译，仅供学习交流使用，如有任何错误或不同意见，诚请批评指正!

1

“Adam is a special child,” says the voice­over, as the camera pans across abandoned classrooms and deserted maternity wards. “He's the last child born in Italy.” The short film made for Plasmon, an Italian brand of baby food owned by Kraft Heinz, a giant American firm, is set in 2050. It imagines an Italy where babies are a thing of the past. It is exaggerating for effect, of course, but not by as much as you might imagine. The number of births in Italy peaked at 1m in 1964; by 2050, the UN projects, it will have shrunk by almost two thirds, to 346,000.

“亚当是个特别的孩子”当摄影机镜头在废弃的教室和废弃的产科病房间平移，画外音如此说道，“他是最后一个在意大利出生的孩子”。这个为派乐萌（Plasmon）制作的短片设定在2050年，派乐萌是由美国卡夫亨氏食品公司（Kraft Heinz）控股的意大利婴儿食品品牌。这个短片想象的是婴儿已经成为历史的意大利。当然，它有点夸张，但是还没有超出你的想象。1964年，意大利的出生人数达到了顶峰，100万人，到了2050年，欧盟预测那时的出生人数可能会缩水三分之二，仅有34.6万人。

2

Plasmon knows what side its fortified biscuits are buttered: a shortage of babies is not good for sales of baby food. But the rapid ageing of many countries around the world will be bad not just for certain industries, or for governments whose costs rise as their revenues decline. The falling number of educated young workers entering the labour market will also reduce innovation, sapping economic growth across the board. Over time, this effect may prove the most economically damaging result of the greying of the rich world, eclipsing growing bills for pensions and health care.

派乐萌知道怎么做对自己有利：缺少婴儿对销售婴儿食品不利。但是全世界很多国家老龄化的加剧将不仅对一些确定的行业不利，或者对政府不利，因为成本上升收入下降。进入劳动市场的受过教育的年轻工人也在减少，这也将削弱创新能力，破坏整体经济增长。随着时间的推移，这可能会被证明是发达国家老龄化最具经济破坏性的结果，远非不断增长的养老金账单和医疗保险所能比拟。

To know which side one's bread is buttered

俗语：一个人要知道他的面包哪一面抹上了黄油。指抹上了黄油的那一边味道更好，一个人在某种情况下很明白什么人会对他有好处，怎么做才对自己有利。

Across the board

全面地，全体人员

Eclipsing

/ɪˈklɪpsɪŋ/

v.遮住…的光;使失色;使相形见绌;使丧失重要性

eclipse的现在分词

3

Italy and Japan, in particular, are the poster pensioners for demographic decline and its economic consequences. In both countries the fertility rate (the number of children a typical woman will have over her lifetime) fell below 2.1 in the 1970s. That level is known as the replacement rate, since it keeps a population stable over time. Anything lower will eventually lead to a declining population, something both Italy and Japan have suffered for about a decade. The median Italian is now 47; the median Japanese 49. Earlier this year, Kishida Fumio, Japan's prime minister, warned that the country is “on the brink of being unable to maintain social functions” because of its baby bust.

特别是意大利和日本，都是因为其经济发展后果和人口下降成为典型的养老金领取型国家。这两个国家的生育率（平均每位妇女生育的孩子数量）在20世纪70年代就已经下降到了2.1以下，2.1也是替代率的水平，这一水平可以让人口在时间的推移中保持稳定。任何水平下降终将导致人口的下降，意大利和日本已经承受了10年的影响。意大利的年龄中位数是47岁，日本的是49岁。今年初，日本首相岸田文雄警告称这个国家因为婴儿荒，“已经到了无法维持社会功能的边缘”。

4

But Italy and Japan are no longer the most extreme examples of demographic decline. In 2022 South Korea had a fertility rate of just 0.8. A rate below one means that the next generation will be less than half the size of its parents'. As recently as 2012 the UN projected that South Korea's population would shrink by only a fifth or so by the end of the century, from 52m today to 41m by 2100. More recent forecasts, however, suggest that the population will fall by more than half over the same period, to just 24m (see chart 1 on next page).

但是，意大利和日本已经不再是人口下降的极端例子了。2022年，韩国生育率只有0.8，这一比率意味着下一代的人数还不到他们父母的一半。2012年，联合国预测韩国人口到本世纪末大约只会缩减1/5，从今天的5200万人减少到2100年的4100万人。而最近的预测显示，韩国人口将在同样长的时间内减少过半，降至2400万人。

5

South Korea may be an exceptional case, but demographic decline is becoming commonplace. In 2010 98 countries and territories recorded fertility rates below 2.1. By 2021 the number had grown to 124, more than half of the places for which the UN collects data (see map on next page). By 2030 it expects the tally to reach 136.

韩国的人口骤降可能是个例，但是这种下降的趋势已经司空见惯了。2010年，生育率低于2.1的国家和地区有98个，到了2021年，这个数字增加到了124个，是欧盟收集数据国家的一半还多。预计到了2030年这一数字将达到136个。

6

Matthias Doepke, an economist who studies the financial causes and effects of changes in fertility, notes that falling birth rates are no longer limited to richer countries or to wealthier families within a given country. “There's a global convergence in women's aspirations for careers and family life,” says Mr Doepke. Fertility rates for women with fewer years of formal education have fallen towards the levels of their more educated peers. In fact, women in America with exactly 16 years of schooling (mostly those with undergraduate degrees) have marginally fewer children on average than those with more schooling.

研究金融与生育率变化的因果关系的经济学家马赛厄斯·德普克，表示生育率下降的情况已经不限于发达国家或者某个国家的富有家庭了。“全世界的女性在事业和家庭生活方面的愿望都一样，”德普克先生说道。接受正规教育年限较短的女性的生育率已经下降到了受教育程度比她们高的同龄人水平。事实上，接受了16年教育的美国女性（绝大多数拥有本科学位）生育的孩子比上学时间更久的人更少。

Matthias Doepke

马赛厄斯·德普克，美国西北大学经济学教授，芝加哥联邦储备银行顾问，美国国家经济研究局助理研究员，欧洲经济政策研究中心研究员，德国慕尼黑经济研究中心成员。法布里奇奥·齐利博蒂（Fabrizio Zilibotti） ，美国耶鲁大学经济学教授，清华大学访问学者，世界计量经济学会、欧洲经济协会成员，美国国家经济研究局经济波动项目组联合主任。

Convergence

[kənˈvɜːrdʒəns]

n.汇聚;(不同思想、群体或社会的)趋同，融合;收敛;辐合

7

By the same token, low fertility rates have spread from rich countries such as Italy and Japan to middle­income ones such as Thailand (1.3) and Brazil (1.6). Even more notably, India's fertility rate recently fell below 2.1 and is expected to keep falling. Since it accounts for a fifth of the world's population, that will have global repercussions. The 15 biggest economies in the world, including Brazil, ..., India and Mexico, all have fertility rates below 2.1.

出于同样的原因，低生育情况开始从发达国家如意大利和日本向中等收入国家如泰国和巴西蔓延。更明显的是，印度的生育率最近已经下降到了2.1，且预计会持续下降。印度人口占世界的五分之一，这种情况将会带来全球性的灾难。世界前十五经济大国，包括巴西、...、印度和墨西哥在内，生育率均在2.1以下。

repercussion

[ˌripərˈkʌʃən]

n. (间接的)影响，反响，恶果

If an action or event has repercussions, it causes unpleasant things to happen some time after the original action or event.

The collapse of the company will have repercussions for the whole industry.

这家公司的垮台将会给整个行业造成间接的负面影响。

8

In 2021 there were 782m people aged between 21 and 30 in countries where fertility is below the replacement rate. By 2050 this group, in effect the potential number of home­grown entrants to the workforce, is expected to have dropped by a fifth, to 619m. This fall is not some subjective and questionable forecast: most members of that generation have already been born, and fertility rates do not tend to change rapidly. In countries in which the fertility rate is below 1.5, which includes almost all of East Asia and much of Europe, the decline will be more extreme, with the same cohort contracting by 37%

2021年，在生育率低于替代率的国家，年龄在21-30岁之间的共有7.82亿人，这也是本土潜在劳动力数量，到了2050年，这一年龄段的人数预测将下降五分之一，即6.19亿人。这种下降不是主观的、存在质疑的推测：这一代人中的大多数人已经出生，生育率不会迅速变化。生育率低于1.5的国家包括了几乎所有的东亚国家和大部分欧洲国家，这些国家的生育率将下降得更加极端，同一年龄段的人数将会下降37%。

cohort

/ˈkoʊhɔːrt/

n.同伙;支持者;(有共同特点或举止类同的)一群人，一批人

9

Instead of a population structure shaped like a pyramid, with each new generation bigger than the one that preceded it, or even a pillar, with all generations similar in size, these countries will become inverted pyramids, with older generations replaced by smaller and smaller cohorts. In

parts of the world this has already happened: the number of ...aged between 21 and 30 has already fallen from 232m at its peak in 2012 to 181m in 2021. The decline will accelerate rapidly in the 2040s, leaving ...with fewer than 100m people in the same pool in the mid­2050s. The population of Europe in the same age category will fall from around 85m to below 60m over the same period.

人口结构不再像一个金字塔，即新生一代人口比上一代人口要多，或者各个年代的人口都差不多，呈现柱形结构，当越来越少的新一代取代老一代时，这些国家的人口结构将会变成倒金字塔形。全球已经有一些地方出现了这种情况：...国21-30岁之间的年轻人已经从2012年的峰值2.32亿人下降到了2021年的1.81亿人。到了2040年左右，这一降幅将会更大，导致...国这一年龄段的人数到了2050年代还不足1亿人。欧洲这一年龄段的人数在相同的时间内将会从8500万人下降到6000万人。

10

The obvious way to compensate for dwindling birth rates is immigration, which is on the rise in much of the rich world, despite the political tensions it has generated in recent years (see Finance section). But as demographic decline affects more and more countries, educated migrants will become harder to find, even as the shrinking of the native­born population accelerates in many rich countries. For .., with a population of some 1.4bn, the notion that enough immigrants could be found to reverse the effects of dwindling birth rates is fanciful. Although India's population is still growing, it will peak in the 2060s, if not sooner. Sub­Saharan Africa is the only region of the world that seems likely to be a big source of potential migrants for many years to come. But even there, birth rates are falling more quickly than past projections predicted. Although immigration will continue to temper demographic decline in many countries for decades, in the long run, it cannot fully compensate for the baby bust in big economies.

显而易见的补偿出生率下降的方法是移民，移民在很多发达国家越来越多，尽管近几年政治局势导致了一些紧张。但是当人口下降影响了越来越多的国家时，受过教育的移民将会变得越来越难找到，并且很多发达国家的本土人口也在加剧缩减。对于拥有14yi人口的..来说，期望有足够多的移民来扭转出生率下降带来的影响可能是空想。尽管印度的人口仍在增长，如果不是更早的话，将会在2060年代达到顶峰。撒哈拉以南非洲是世界上唯一有可能的未来许多年的潜在移民人口来源地区。但是即便是那里，生育率下降速度也比过去预测的要快。虽然，移民会在之后数十年来缓解很多国家的人口下降问题，但长久来看，仍不能解决经济体大国的婴儿荒问题。

dwindling

V (数量上)减少,缩小

If something dwindles, it becomes smaller, weaker, or less in number.

The factory's workforce has dwindled from over 4,000 to a few hundred...

工厂雇员总数已经从 4,000 多人减少到几百人。

Temper

n.脾气;情绪;心情;火气;怒气;有…脾气的;心境;易怒的性情;阵怒

vt.使(金属)回火;使温和;使缓和

Although immigration will continue to temper demographic decline in many countries for decades, in the long run, it cannot fully compensate for the baby bust in big economies.

用even as A leads to ..., B still hangs over the future of ...句式改写：

Even as immigration leads to the alleviation of the demographic decline in many countries for decades, baby bust still hangs over the future of big economies.

11

Some of the consequences of these demographic shifts are well known. An ever greyer population will mean higher spending on public pensions and health care, but there will be fewer people of working age to pay the taxes required. The rich world currently has around three people between 20 and 64 years old for every one over 65. By 2050 this ratio will shrink to less than two to one. That will necessitate later retirement ages, higher taxes or both.

这些人口形势的转变带来的结果众所周知。不断增长的银发一族意味着支出的公共养老金和社保变得更多，但能够支付税款的适龄劳动者将会更少。目前，发达国家每一位65岁以上的人可以有3名20-64岁之间的人支撑。但是到了2050年，这个比例将会缩减到2个或者1个。届时将需要延长退休年龄或增加税收，或两者兼有。

necessitate

/nəˈsesɪteɪt/

V.使必须化

12

The economic consequences of demographic decline are not only fiscal, however. Labour is one of the three main determinants of growth, along with capital and the efficiency with which both are used (productivity). Shrinking work forces, other things being equal, automatically lead to lower economic growth. But demographic decline also has knock­on effects on capital and productivity that are much less well understood.

然而，人口下降产生的经济影响并不仅仅是财政问题。劳动力是增长的三大必要条件，以及资本和两者的使用效率（即：生产力）。在其他条件不变的情况下，劳动力不断缩减会自动引发更缓慢的经济增长。但是人口下降对资本和生产力产生的连锁反应尚未被充分认识到。

knock-on effects

表达“knock-on effect”用来特指“某一件事对其它相关联的人或事件产生的附带效应”。这是一个英式表达，用来描述”不可避免且间接产生的影响”。和“knock-on effect”含义相近的说法包括“ripple effect 连锁反应”和“domino effect 多米诺骨牌效应”，但这三个表达所涉及的范围、广度有所不同。

Luckily, the inflation did not have a knock-on effect on average incomes.

万幸的是，通货膨胀并没有对平均收入产生连带效应。

The train delay has caused a severe knock-on effect on the commuters’ journeys.

火车延误对通勤者的旅途造成了严重的连带影响。

The introduction of a new animal species will have a knock-on effect on the local ecosystem.

新动物物种的引进会给当地的生态系统带来连锁效应。

13

Many economists believe that a smaller working population will push down interest rates in real terms (meaning, after accounting for inflation), because there will be fewer investment opportunities and a large stock of savings accumulated by those in or near retirement. But others, such as Charles Goodhart, a former official at the Bank of England, believe the effect will be the opposite. As more people enter retirement and so stop saving but continue to consume, there will be less funding for investment, pushing real interest rates up.

很多经济学家相信劳动力人数减少将拉低真实利率（意思是，扣除通货膨胀因素后的利率），因为投资机会减少，以及即将和已经被解雇的人存下的大量存款。但是其他人，比如前英格兰银行雇员Charles Goodhart相信情况恰恰相反，因为越来越多人失业，他们停止了储蓄但仍需要消费，因此用于投资的资金也会更少，导致真实利率出现上升。

Real interest rate

真实利率、实际利率

实际利率是指剔除通货膨胀率后储户或投资者得到利息回报的真实利率。名义利率是指票面利率,实际利率是指投资者得到利息回报的真实利率。

14

Both sides agree that an ageing population will reduce both savings and investment, but disagree about which will decline more quickly. But the balance of evidence points towards lower real interest rates: many developing economies still have decades of savings accumulation ahead of them, and retirees often cling to their savings rather than running them down. Either way, demographic changes will have huge implications for markets. Broadly speaking, low real interest rates are good for those who have already accumulated assets but bad for those still trying to save, including the increasing numbers of workers approaching retirement with inadequate nest eggs.

不过这个观点的双方都同意，人口老龄化不仅会导致存款减少，也会导致投资减少，但对哪一方下降的更快意见不同。证据的天平倾向于利率变得更低：很多发展中经济体仍有数十年的储蓄积累，因为退休人员普遍牢牢守住自己的存款而不是花掉。不管怎样，人口变化将对市场带来巨大影响。广泛意义上来说，低利率对那些已经有资产积累的人来说是好事，但对正在试图存钱的人来说是坏事，包括越来越多的人面临失业，而这些人储蓄也不够。

15

But it is on productivity that demographic decline may have the most troubling effect. Younger people have more of what psychologists call “fluid intelligence”, meaning the ability to solve new problems and engage with new ideas. Older people have more “crystallised intelligence”—a stock of knowledge about how things work built up over time. There are no precise cut­offs, but most studies suggest that fluid intelligence tends to peak in early adulthood and to begin to decline in people's 30s. Both types of intelligence are useful: companies, industries and economies need both youngsters able to respond to new challenges and seasoned veterans

with a detailed understanding of their trade. But the two are not of equivalent value when it comes to innovation.

但是，人口下降可能会对生产力产生最严重的后果。年轻人拥有更多“流体智力”，这是心理学家给出的称呼，意味着解决新问题和产生新想法的能力。而年长的人可能拥有更多“固化智力”——一种随着时间积累起来的关于如何做事的知识库。这两种智力之间并没有明确的切分点，但是绝大多数研究表明流体智力将在青年早期达到峰值，各行各业不仅需要能够应对新挑战的年轻人，也需要对贸易有着丰富经验的老手。但是，这两种人在需要创新的时候提供的价值并不相同。

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