Container shipping 集装运输

All at sea

Long delays and high costs will not abate soon

第一段：

Father christmas and the global container-shipping industry have similar objectives, though the timescales differ. Santa’s world-spanning logistics operation aims to deliver presents all in one night. Shipping firms step theirs up around September to ensure that gifts and other seasonal goods join a vast global supply chain. But a system that usually operates unnoticed (and unremarked upon) is still in chaos. For months a covid-induced maelstrom of delays and sky-high shipping rates has left goods lingering at sea and shop shelves bare around the world. Politicians insist that the snarls will disappear. But survey the horizon and there is little sign of smoother sailing.

圣诞老人和全球集装箱航运业有着相似的目标，不过时间段不同。圣诞老人的全球物流业务旨在在一个晚上把礼物送完。船运公司在9月左右加快了他们的步伐，以确保礼物和其他季节性商品加入到庞大的全球供应链中。但是，这样一个通常未被察觉(也不被注意)的系统仍然处于混乱之中。几个月来，新冠肺炎引发的延误和极高的运费导致货物滞留在海上，而世界各地的商店货架空空如也。政客们坚持认为这种混乱将会消失。但放眼未来，几乎没有迹象表明航行会更加顺利。

第二段：

The pandemic has hit shipping firms’ operations along the supply chain. Labour shortages have been worsened by workers forced to isolate. XX’s zero-tolerance measures have closed port terminals after the discovery of one or two covid-19 cases. The spread there of the new Omicron variant makes more closures likely. But the most significant impact of the pandemic has been to ignite demand for goods from self-isolating shoppers, particularly Americans eager to buy Chinese products using stimulus money. The value of merchandise goods exported from China to America was 5% greater in the first six months of 2021 compared with 2019, before the pandemic. In September and October it was 19% higher than two years earlier.

新冠肺炎疫情对航运公司的供应链业务造成了冲击。由于工人被迫被隔离，劳动力短缺问题更加严重。在发现1-2例新冠肺炎病例后，XX采取了零容忍措施，关闭了港口码头。新的奥密克戎变种在那里的传播会让更多的关闭成为可能。但疫情最显著的影响是刺激了自我隔离的购物者对商品的需求，尤其是渴望用刺激支票购买中国产品的美国人。2021年前6个月，中国出口到美国的商品价值比2019年疫情前增加了5%。9月和10月的商品出口价值比两年前高出19%。

第三段：

The result is that shipping rates are not coming back to earth. A set of benchmark spot rates from Freightos, a digital freight marketplace, between China and America’s west coast are below a recent peak. But at around $15,000 per FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), they are ten times pre-pandemic levels (see chart 1). The outsize appetite for goods in America has had a knock-on effect elsewhere. A shortage of vessels, drawn by high rates to the trans pacific routes, has pushed the cost of sending boxes between China and Europe to record levels. That raises costs for businesses that rely on shipping firms. Small items such as smartphones or sports shoes can be packed by the tens of thousands into a container. But a rough estimate of the average value of goods in a box travelling between China and America is around $50,000. Another $15,000 makes a significant difference.

其结果是航运价格无法回到现实。数字货运市场Freightos的一组中国和美国西海岸之间的基准现货价格低于最近的峰值。但在每FEU(相当于40英尺的单位)1.5万美元左右，是疫情前水平的10倍(见表1)。美国对商品的巨大需求已经在其他地方产生了连锁反应。跨太平洋航线的高运价导致船只短缺，这使得中国和欧洲之间的集装箱运输成本达到创纪录的水平。这增加了依赖航运公司的企业的成本。智能手机或运动鞋等小物件，一个集装箱能装数万件。但据粗略估计，在中美之间运输的一箱货物的平均价值约为5万美元。再多15000美元就会有很大的不同。

第四段：

To eye-watering costs add lengthy delays. Ports, unused to such volumes of traffic, face long queues of ships waiting weeks to unload. In a system already stretched to the limit by lack of lorry drivers and warehouse space, up to 15% of the global container fleet is currently sitting at anchor outside the world’s ports.

除了高昂的成本外，还有漫长的延误。不习惯如此大流量的港口，面临着等待了数周要卸货的拍着长队的船只。由于缺乏卡车司机和仓库空间，集装箱运输系统已经达到了极限，而目前全球高达15%的集装箱船队停泊在世界各地的港口外。

第五段：

apparent signs of improvement are illusory. A widely watched indicator, the armada waiting to offload goods at the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, America’s main entry points for Chinese imports, now numbers some 30-40 vessels, down from 70-80 in October. However, that is mostly because a recent change to the queuing system means that ships are now asked to wait far out at sea (some even linger off the Chinese coast). The real queue is over 100 ships.

明显的改善迹象是假的。一个广受关注的指标是，等待在洛杉矶和长滩这两个美国主要的中国进口商品的入境口岸，卸货的舰队数量从10月份的70-80艘下降到现在的30-40艘。然而，这主要是因为最近排队制度的改变，意味着船只现在被要求在遥远的海上等待(有些甚至在中国海岸逗留)。真正的排队队列有100多艘船。

第六段：

Relief from this congestion does not look imminent, and the longer it builds the longer it will take to unwind. Most pundits see little hope of improvement until after Chinese new year in February. Disruptions may last all of 2022. Though rates may have hit a peak, they are unlikely to fall much in the next six months and are set to remain elevated into 2023, thinks Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime, a consultancy. Only then will new vessels ordered in response to high rates start to hit the waves.

缓解这种拥堵似乎并不迫在眉睫，而且队伍越长，解除拥堵所需的时间也就越长。大多数专家认为，在2月份中国农历新年之前，情况几乎没有好转的希望。供应中断可能会持续整个2022年。咨询公司Vespucci Maritime的Lars Jensen认为，尽管运费可能已经达到峰值，但在未来6个月内不太可能大幅下降，而且到2023年仍将保持高位。只有到那时，为应对高运费而订购的新船才会开始“乘风破浪”。

第七段：

Even if spot rates have peaked most customers will face higher bills in 2022. The long-term contracts that govern the bulk of container traffic are currently far lower than spot rates—perhaps $2,500-3,000 per FEU between China and America. But as David Kerstens of Jefferies, a bank, points out, spot rates inform contract rates. In 2021 two-thirds of the contracts signed by Maersk, the world’s biggest container-shipping firm, which controls a fifth of the global market, have been long-term ones. As Maersk’s contracts and those of its rivals roll over, the rates could double. And with customers more concerned about securing scarce capacity than haggling over price, some are signing contracts for two years rather than one.

如果现货价格已经达到峰值，大多数客户也将在2022年面临更高额的账单。控制大部分集装箱运输的长期合同目前远低于现货价格，中国和美国之间每FEU大约2500-3000美元。但是Jefferies银行的David Kerstens指出，即期利率会影响合同利率。Maersk是世界上最大的集装箱运输公司，控制着全球五分之一的市场份额。2021年，该公司签署的合同中有三分之二都是长期合同。随着Maersk及其竞争对手的合同到期，费率可能会翻倍。由于客户更关心的是确保稀缺的产能，而不是讨价还价，一些客户签的合同是两年而不是一年。

第八段：

Fears that a trend for “near-shoring” might hit demand seem unwarranted for now. Soren Skou, boss of Maersk, sees little evidence of it so far. Many firms that source supplies from China are having doubts about relying on one country. A “China plus one” policy of adding a supplier in another part of Asia, such as Vietnam or Thailand, needs more ships to transport these goods directly to America or to giant Chinese hub ports for their onward trip.

对“近岸外包”趋势可能打击需求的担忧目前看来是没有根据的。Maersk的老板Soren Skou到目前为止还没看到这方面的证据。许多从中国采购产品的公司都在怀疑是否要依赖一个国家。“中国加一”的政策是在亚洲的另一个地方增加一个供应商，比如越南或泰国，这就需要更多的船只将这些货物直接运往美国或中国的大型枢纽港口，以继续向前运输。

第九段：

The industry’s response to the crunch reflects changes to its structure that predate covid-19. In the words of Rahul Kapoor of the Journal of Commerce, a sectoral must-read, “The era of cheap shipping is behind us.” Shifting goods around the world has been inexpensive because the response to high rates has historically been a frenzy of orders. That, in turn, has led to a flood of vessels that arrive just as economic conditions worsen and trade slows.

该行业对危机的反应反映了其在covid-19之前的结构变化。用行业必读刊物《商业杂志》的Rahul Kapoor的话来说:“廉价航运的时代已经过去。” 在世界各地运输商品一直不贵，因为对高利率的反应历来是订单狂潮。这反过来又导致在经济状况恶化、贸易放缓之际，大批船只涌入。

第十段：

But bloody price wars over market share may be gone for good. Since 2016, when a previous ship-ordering binge collided with slowing trade, collapsing rates and big losses, the industry has consolidated—20 big firms have become seven bigger ones in three global alliances. This has helped them manage capacity more ruthlessly. As a result, the cyclical industry may suffer shallower and shorter downturns, says Parash Jain of HSBC, another bank.

但围绕市场份额的血腥价格战可能一去不复返了。自2016年以来，当之前的订船热潮与“贸易放缓、价格暴跌和巨额亏损”相冲突时，该行业已经整合，在三个全球联盟中，20家大公司变成了7家更大的公司。这帮助他们更加无情地管理产能。汇丰银行的Parash Jain说，其结果是周期性行业可能会遭受较浅层且较短的衰退。

第十一段：

The strange result of the pandemic is that the industry is awash with cash. Simon Heaney of Drewry, a consultancy, says that profits could reach $200bn in 2021 and $150bn in 2022, an unimaginable bonanza beside the cumulative total of around $110bn for the previous 20 years. As well as returning cash to shareholders, Maersk may acquire more firms in e-commerce fulfilment and air-freight as part of its effort to build an end-to-end logistics business that ferries goods by sea, land and air, taking on DHL and FedEx. Other big container-shipping companies such as China’s COSCO and France’s CMA-CGM are doing the same.

疫情导致的奇怪结果是，该行业现金充裕。咨询公司Drewry的Simon Heaney表示，2021年利润可能达到2000亿美元，2022年达到1500亿美元，与此前20年累计约1100亿美元的利润相比，这是一笔难以想象的财富。除了向股东返还现金外，Maersk可能会收购更多的电商配送以及航空货运公司，作为其努力建立端到端物流业务的一部分，通过海运、陆运和空运运送货物，与DHL和FedEx竞争。其他大型集装箱运输公司，如中国远洋和法国CMA-CGM也在做同样的事情。

第十二段：

The big question is how much new capacity is in the offing. As world trade boomed in the years before the financial crisis of 2007-09, order books were roughly equivalent to 60% of the existing fleet. They now stand at a little over 20%. Restraint is due in part to uncertainty over the technology needed to make vessels which have a 25-year lifespan compliant with tougher carbon-emissions rules that the industry is expecting. Still, capital discipline may have its limits. Orders have begun to swell again (see chart 2). But it will take two to three years before ships ordered today start rolling down slipways. The era of pricey shipping could well last for another Christmas or two. 

最大的问题是，未来会有多少新产能。在2007-2009年金融危机爆发前的几年里，世界贸易蓬勃发展，订单量大约相当于现有船只的60%。现在的比例略高于20%。限制的部分原因是，制造“符合行业预期的更严格的碳排放规定”的“使用寿命为25年”的船舶所需的技术不确定。不过，资本纪律可能有其局限性。订单已经开始再次上涨(见图2)。但要想让今天订购的船只从滑台上放下来，还需要两到三年的时间。价格昂贵的运输时代很可能会再持续一两个圣诞节。