International trade： Changing places  

The pandemic will not end globalisation, but it will reshape it    

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Governments might choose to ignore all this in favour of protection. But most firms are not about to abandon their cross-border investments. A survey by the US-China Business Council shows little change in the number of American firms saying they have moved or plan to move out of China. The survival of the "phase one" trade deal struck in 2019 suggests that even the Trump administration knows there are limits to the desirability of decoupling from China. Rather than a wholesale break, covid-19 is likely to cause an acceleration of forces already in motion. Firms will trade off a bit of efficiency for more robustness, realising that in the long run the robotisation of manufacturing may lead to more local production anyway. Governments will shorten and diversify supply chains for medical equipment. But America and China will trade under a darker cloud of mutual suspicion, balancing commercial and geopolitical interests.

desirability /dɪˌzaɪərəˈbɪləti/ n. 愿望；有利条件；值得向往的事物；合意

Robotisation：自动化

Further ahead the future of globalisation will be determined less by goods than by services.Before covid-19 services trade was not suffering from slowbalisation: it was growing faster than GDP. Exports of services account for around a fifth of all trade, according to the WTO (although what exactly counts as services trade is a matter of some debate). Like trade in goods, trade in services has suffered this year as tourist flows have collapsed. But consumers are unlikely to have suddenly lost their taste for travel, and countries have little long-term incentive to close borders to tourists. It seems likely that tourism will eventually rebound.

rebound  /rɪˈbaʊnd/

动词：1.~ (from/off sth) 弹回；反弹 2.~ (on sb) 报应；反作用于 2. (商) (价格等)回升；反弹

名词：1.(体)反弹球；回弹球；2.(篮球) 抢断篮板球；3.(商) 复兴；振作

 on the ˈrebound（尤指关系破裂之后）在伤心困惑之时

Meanwhile, the surge of investment in remote working during 2020 might open the door to more trade in digital services. When work is carried out remotely, it does not matter where it is done. On the more futuristic end, this involves remote presence.Whereas the export of repair services previously required high-skilled engineers to cross borders, virtual- and augmented-reality technologies now allow experts in one country to help lower-skilled workers fix machines in another, says Ms Lund. Richard Baldwin of the Graduate Institute in Geneva points to the potential for remote workers in poor countries to carry out basic office tasks for firms in the rich world. Before the pandemic the WTO was already talking up the potential for more trade in digital services, predicting that if developing countries adopted digital technologies, they could reap the rewards of a higher share of international services。

Augmented  /ɔːɡ'mentɪd/  adj. 增广的；增音的；扩张的

Augment  v. /ɔːɡˈment/ ( formal ) to increase the amount, value, size, etc. of sth 增加；提高；扩大

reap  v. /riːp/  

1. 取得（成果）；收获 •They are now reaping the rewards of all their hard work. 现在，他们的全部辛劳都得到了回报。 2. 收割（庄稼）；收获

2.  REAP A/THE ˈHARVEST 享受成果；承担后果；种瓜得瓜，种豆得豆

3. YOU ˌREAP WHAT YOU ˈSOW 种瓜得瓜，种豆得豆

Services trade is hard to liberalise because it often means harmonising regulations. Fields such as education, health care, accounting and finance are littered with barriers to entry and requirements for local credentials. The most successful model for remotely provided services is India’s IT sector, which faces few regulatory hurdles. But disputes over cross-border data flows and the taxation of internet giants augur badly for faster digital integration. Digital trading, just like trade in goods, is increasingly concentrated in regional regulatory blocks. Yet Mr Baldwin argues that the rise of online services trade will bypass tensions between East and West, because it will take place within time zones: South America will supply cheap digital services to North America, Africa to Europe, and South-East Asia to North-East Asia.

 be littered with  散落着，将……乱扔在……处，使杂乱 ·The floor was littered with papers. 地板上乱七八糟扔了许多报纸。

Credential /krəˈdenʃl/ 提供证明书（或证件）  

Hurdle  /ˈhɜːdl/n. 障碍；栏；跳栏vt. 克服 vi. 克服；跳过

Augur  v. /ˈɔːɡə(r)/  ~ well/badly ( formal ) 主（吉或凶）；是…的预兆 • Conflicts among the various groups do not augur well for the future of the peace talks. 各派之间的冲突对和平谈判不是一个好兆头。

The increased digitisation brought on by covid-19 can only help services trade, even as goods trade continues to slowbalise. But the extent of that help depends on how much the pandemic reshapes labour markets.

译文

Governments might choose to ignore all this in favour of protection. But most firms are not about to abandon their cross-border investments. A survey by the US-China Business Council shows little change in the number of American firms saying they have moved or plan to move out of China. The survival of the "phase one" trade deal struck in 2019 suggests that even the Trump administration knows there are limits to the desirability of decoupling from China. Rather than a wholesale break, covid-19 is likely to cause an acceleration of forces already in motion. Firms will trade off a bit of efficiency for more robustness, realising that in the long run the robotisation of manufacturing may lead to more local production anyway. Governments will shorten and diversify supply chains for medical equipment. But America and China will trade under a darker cloud of mutual suspicion, balancing commercial and geopolitical interests.

政府出于保护的目的可能会选择性忽视这些因素。但绝大多数公司不会放弃他们的跨境投资。由中美商业委员会调查发现美国企业虽然说他们正在或者计划离开中国但实际上几乎没有变化。2019年“第一阶段”贸易协议冲击下的幸存者表明即使是川普管理团队也知道与中国脱钩的愿望应是奢望。新冠疫情带来的不是大规模中断某种活动，更像是推动进程中力量加速运行。总之，企业会牺牲一点效率换取更多的鲁棒性，会意识到长期发展中生产的自动化会产生更多的本地化生产。政府会缩短医疗器械的供应链长度和推动其多样化。但中美之间的贸易会在互相猜忌、平衡商贸与地缘政治利益的阴云下进行。

Further ahead the future of globalisation will be determined less by goods than by services.Before covid-19 services trade was not suffering from slowbalisation: it was growing faster than GDP. Exports of services account for around a fifth of all trade, according to the WTO (although what exactly counts as services trade is a matter of some debate). Like trade in goods, trade in services has suffered this year as tourist flows have collapsed. But consumers are unlikely to have suddenly lost their taste for travel, and countries have little long-term incentive to close borders to tourists. It seems likely that tourism will eventually rebound.

进一步，未来决定全球化的不是商品，而是服务。疫情之前，服务商贸并未受“慢球化”的影响：它比GDP增速快。根据WTO披露，服务出口占到总全球交易的五分之一（虽然服务交易的定义有待商榷）。如同商品贸易一样，由于旅游业的崩塌，服务贸易今年同样遭受损失。但消费者不会突然失去对旅游的乐趣，国家也不会对长期闭关锁国感兴趣。旅游业看起来终将会卷土重来。

Meanwhile, the surge of investment in remote working during 2020 might open the door to more trade in digital services. When work is carried out remotely, it does not matter where it is done. On the more futuristic end, this involves remote presence.Whereas the export of repair services previously required high-skilled engineers to cross borders, virtual- and augmented-reality technologies now allow experts in one country to help lower-skilled workers fix machines in another, says Ms Lund. Richard Baldwin of the Graduate Institute in Geneva points to the potential for remote workers in poor countries to carry out basic office tasks for firms in the rich world. Before the pandemic the WTO was already talking up the potential for more trade in digital services, predicting that if developing countries adopted digital technologies, they could reap the rewards of a higher share of international services。

与此同时，2020年对远程工作的投资浪潮可能会打开电子服务贸易的大门。当工作实现远程的时候，在哪里完成并不重要。在更未来的一端，远程必然存在。Lund女士说道以前需要高级工程师跨境修复机械的，通过采用虚拟现实交互技术，可以让专家帮助身处他国的低水平工人修理设备。日内瓦研究所学院的Richard Baldwin指出欠发达国家远程工人帮助发达国家企业完成基础工作任务的潜能。在疫情爆发之前，WTO已经在讨论更多电子服务商贸的潜能并预言道如果发展中国家能够采用电子技术，则可以在国际服务中收割更多的收益份额。

Services trade is hard to liberalise because it often means harmonising regulations. Fields such as education, health care, accounting and finance are littered with barriers to entry and requirements for local credentials. The most successful model for remotely provided services is India’s IT sector, which faces few regulatory hurdles. But disputes over cross-border data flows and the taxation of internet giants augur badly for faster digital integration. Digital trading, just like trade in goods, is increasingly concentrated in regional regulatory blocks. Yet Mr Baldwin argues that the rise of online services trade will bypass tensions between East and West, because it will take place within time zones: South America will supply cheap digital services to North America, Africa to Europe, and South-East Asia to North-East Asia.

服务贸易难以自由化，因为自由化意味着协调各个地方的规章制度。像教育、医疗、会计及金融领域进入他国有许多进入障碍并需要当地的证书。目前最成功的远程服务模式是印度的IT行业，几乎没有面临管制障碍。此外，关于跨境数据流动以及互联网巨头征税的争论明显预示着电信整合的加快。然而电信商贸如同货物贸易一样，越来越集中在区域管制之内。但是Baldwin先生认为线上服务贸易会绕过东西方的紧张局势，因为它们会发生在时区之内：南美为北美提供廉价电子信息服务；非洲为欧洲，东南亚为东北亚。

The increased digitisation brought on by covid-19 can only help services trade, even as goods trade continues to slowbalise. But the extent of that help depends on how much the pandemic reshapes labour markets.

新冠疫情带来的电子信息化提高只能够帮助服务贸易，商品贸易依旧持续放缓。但是电子信息化对服务贸易帮助的程度取决于疫情重塑劳动力市场的程度。

经济学人11月刊