【英语每日听读（16）】气候目标｜词汇梳理（双语注释）｜原版音频｜双语版（见评论

The world is missing its lofty climate targets.

Time for some realism Global warming cannot be limited to 1.5°C

Nov 3rd 2022

on accept that the world’s average temperature might rise by more than 1.5°C, declared the foreign minister of the Marshall Islands in 2015, would be to sign the “death warrant” of small, low-lying countries such as his. To widespread surprise, the grandees who met in Paris that year, at a climate conference like the one starting in Egypt next week, accepted his argument. They enshrined the goal of limiting global warming to about 1.5°C in the Paris agreement, which sought to co-ordinate national efforts to curb emissions of greenhouse gases.

马绍尔群岛外交部长 2015 年时表示，假如世界平均气温上升超过1.5 ℃ 的话，对马绍尔群岛这样的低地小国将意味着 “ 死刑执行令 ” 。让人们感到惊讶的是，在当年巴黎气候会议（如同下周将在埃及举办的会议）上，那些出席的大人物们接受了这一观点。他们把将全球变暖幅度限制在 1. 5 ℃ 左右这一目标写入了《巴黎协定》 。 该协定寻求通过协调各国努力以遏制温室气体排放。

No one remembered to tell the firing squad, however. The same countries that piously signed the Paris agreement have not cut their emissions enough to meet its targets; in fact global emissions are still growing. The world is already about 1.2°C hotter than it was in pre-industrial times. Given the lasting impact of greenhouse gases already emitted, and the impossibility of stopping emissions overnight, there is no way Earth can now avoid a temperature rise of more than 1.5°C. There is still hope that the overshoot may not be too big, and may be only temporary, but even these consoling possibilities are becoming ever less likely. 

然而，没有人提醒那些签约国。那些庄严签署巴黎协议的国家并没有减少足够的排放量以达到协定目标。事实上，全球排放量仍在增长。世界已经比前工业化时代热了约1. 2 ℃。已排放的温室气体会造成长久影响，而且我们不可能在一夜之间停止排放，所以现在没有办法避免地球温度上升超过1.5 ℃。我们仍有机会将超标幅度控制在较小范围内，而且超标也可能只是暂时的。但即使是这种可能性也变得越来越小。 

The consequences of the world’s failure to curb emissions are catastrophic, and not just for coral atolls in the Pacific. Climate-related disasters are

proliferating, from Pakistan, much of which was inundated by this summer’s unusually intense monsoon, to Florida, which in September endured its deadliest hurricane since 1935. Even less lethal distortions of the weather, such as this summer’s extraordinary heatwave in Europe, do enormous economic damage, impeding transport, wrecking infrastructure and sapping productivity. 

假如全球无法遏制碳排放的话，后果将是灾难性的，而且影响范围不仅限于太平洋的珊瑚环礁。气候灾害正在激增，从巴基斯坦（今年夏天时大部分国土被异常猛烈的季风淹没）到佛罗里达州（在九月经历了自1935年以来最致命的飓风）。即使是不那么致命的气候异常现象，例如今年夏天欧洲的反常热浪，也会造成巨大的经济损失，阻碍运输，破坏基础设施并削弱生产力。 

The response to all this should be a dose of realism. Many activists are reluctant to admit that 1.5°C is a lost cause. But failing to do so prolongs the mistakes made in Paris, where the world’s governments adopted a Herculean goal without any plausible plan for reaching it. The delegates gathering in Egypt should be chastened by failure, not lulled by false hope. They need to be more pragmatic, and face up to some hard truths. 

我们应该以更加现实的态度应对这一切。许多气候运动家不愿意承认1. 5°C 这一目标是注定失败的。但是，如果不这样做的话，我们就会延续在巴黎犯下的错误。 世界各国政府制定了一个艰巨的目标，但却没有制定任何针对性的合理计划。 聚集在埃及的代表们应该懊恼于这一目标的失败，而不是被虚无的希望所迷惑。 他们需要变得更加务实，并接受那些严峻的事实。 

First, cutting emissions will require much more money. Roughly speaking, global investment in clean energy needs to triple from today’s $1trn a year, and be concentrated in developing countries, which generate most of today’s emissions. Solar and wind power can be cheaper to build and run than more polluting types, but grids need to be rebuilt to cope with the intermittency of the sun and the wind. Concessionary lending and aid from rich countries are essential and a moral imperative. However, the sums required are far greater than what might plausibly be squeezed out of Western donors or multilateral organisations such as the World Bank

首先，减少碳排放需要更多资金支持。粗略地说，全球对清洁能源的投资需要在当前每年1万亿美元资金基础上再增加两倍。 因为大多数碳排放都集中在发展中国家，因此投资应集中于这些国家。太阳能和风能的建设和运行成本可能比那些污染严重的能源更低，但我们需要重建电网以应对太阳能和风能的间歇性。在道义上，发达国家的优惠贷款和援助是必要的，而且至关重要。然而，现在从西方捐助者或世界银行等多边组织中能获得的资金远远满足不了所需。

So the governments of developing countries, especially middle-income ones, will have to work with the rich world to mobilise private investment. On the part of developing countries, that will involve big improvements to the investment climate and an acceptance that they will have to cede some control over energy policy. On the part of donors, it will involve focusing spending on schemes that “crowd in” private capital, such as indemnifying investors against political and regulatory risks, taking equity stakes in private projects and agreeing to absorb the first tranche of losses if things go wrong. They will have to do things they dislike, such as helping the poorest countries shut coal plants. But without give on both sides, the world will bake.

因此，发展中国家政府，特别是中等收入国家政府，将不得不通过与发达国家合作以吸引私人投资。对这些发展中国家而言，这意味着它们必须大力改善投资环境，并不得不放弃对（本国）能源政策的部分控制。对捐助方而言，这意味着它们需要将支出集中于那些可以大量吸引私人资本的计划上，例如补偿投资者面临的政治和监管风险，买入私人项目的股权，以及同意在意外发生时承担首波损失。他们将不得不做他们不喜欢的事，例如帮助最贫穷国家关停煤电站。但如果双方都不让步的话，世界就会陷入水深火热中。

The second hard truth is that fossil fuels will not be abandoned overnight. Europe is scrambling to build import facilities for natural gas, having lost access to Russian supplies, precisely because it cannot come up with any immediate alternative. For some poorer countries investments in gas, in conjunction with renewables, are still necessary: helping more citizens get life-enhancing electricity is a moral imperative, too.

第二个严酷事实是，我们无法在一夜之间抛弃化石燃料。 因为欧洲失去了俄罗斯的天然气供应以及欧洲无法马上找到其替代品，因此欧洲正在艰难地建设天然气进口设施。 对于一些较贫穷国家来说，在天然气和可再生能源方面的投资仍然是必要的。因为道义上来说，国家应该帮助更多公民获得电力以改善生活。

The third truth is that because 1.5°C will be missed, greater efforts must be made to adapt to climate change. Adaptation has always been the neglected step-child of climate policy, mistrusted by activists as a distraction from cutting emissions or, worse, an excuse not to make any cuts. But no matter what, the world now faces morefloods, droughts, storms and wildfires. For developing countries especially, but also for rich ones, preparing for these calamities is a matter of life and death.

stepchild 此处应该指的是 受到冷落的人或物

第三个严酷事实是，由于我们无法实现1. 5 ℃这一目标，我们必须付出更大努力来适应气候变化。在气候政策中，适应气候变化这一选项一直被忽视，并被活动家们质疑。 这些气候活动家认为适应气候变化这一方案会干扰减排努力，甚至可能被作为抵制减排的借口。 但无论如何，世界现在面临更多的洪水、干旱、风暴和野火灾害。 特别是对于发展中国家，做好应对这些灾害的准备事关生死。发达国家也不例外。

Fortunately, as our special report argues, a lot of adaptation is affordable. It can be as simple as providing farmers with hardier strains of crops and getting cyclone warnings to people in harm’s way. Better still, such measures tend to have additional benefits beyond helping people cope with climate change. This is an area where even modest help from rich countries can have a big impact. Yet they are not coughing up the money they have promised to help the poorest ones adapt. That is unfair: why should poor farmers in Africa, who have done almost nothing to make the climate change, be abandoned to suffer as it does? If the rich world allows global warming to ravage already fragile countries, it will inevitably end up paying a price in food shortages and proliferating refugees.

幸运的是，特别报告指出，我们承担得起很多适应措施。它可以简单到为农民提供更强壮的农作物品种，并向处于危险中的人们发出旋风警报。更好的是，这些措施除了帮助人们应对气候变化之外，往往还有其他好处。在这个领域，即使富国的适度帮助也能产生巨大的影响。然而，他们并没有拿出他们所承诺的资金来帮助最贫穷的人适应。这是不公平的：为什么非洲的贫困农民几乎没有做任何事情来使气候发生变化，却要被抛弃，让他们像气候一样受苦？如果富裕的世界允许全球变暖蹂躏已经脆弱的国家，它最终将不可避免地付出粮食短缺和难民激增的代价。

Cool it

冷却地球

Finally, having admitted that the planet will grow dangerously hot, policymakers need to consider more radical ways to cool it. Technologies to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, now in their infancy, need a lot of attention. So does “solar geoengineering”, which blocks out incoming sunlight. Both are mistrusted by climate activists, the first as a false promise, the second as a scary threat. On solar geoengineering people are right to worry. It could well be dangerous and would be very hard to govern. But so will an ever hotter world. The worthies in Egypt need to take that on board.

最后，承认地球将变得危险的炎热，政策制定者则需要考虑更激进的方法来冷却它。将二氧化碳从大气中吸走的技术，现在还处于起步阶段，需要得到大量关注。阻挡入射阳光的 "太阳能地球工程技术"也是如此。两者都得不到活动家们的信任，前者被认为是一个虚假的承诺，后者是一个可怕的威胁。关于太阳能地球工程技术，人们的担心是正确的。它很可能是危险的，而且将很难管理。但是一个越来越热的世界也会变得难以管理。埃及的大人物们需要考虑到这一点。

Overshooting 1.5°C does not doom the planet. But it is a death sentence for some people, ways of life, ecosystems, even countries. To let the moment pass without some hard thinking about how to set the world on a better trajectory would be to sign yet more death warrants.

全球平均温度升高超过1.5°C并不会使地球灭亡。但它对一些居民、生活方式、生态系统、甚至国家来说是一个死刑判决。如果不认真思考如何让世界进入一个更好的轨道，就让这个关键时刻过去，那将是签署更多的死刑执行令。